Problem of the week 31 - Pool, Snooker, and Billiards -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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Problem of the week 31

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03-22-2011 , 07:31 AM

Wamy Einehouse

rack 'em

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 4,653

You are Johnny Archer, playing one of the world's best players - Corey Deuel. You are 8-7 up in a race to 9 at rotating break ten ball. Table is very high grade US regulation one.

Best shot if:

a) You are breaking next?

b) Corey is breaking next?

Answer:

Spoiler:

Bit of trick question this week but have to keep you all on your toes otherwise it would all become a bit obvious. Firstly, anyone who said who breaks next does not matter is probably right – ten ball is much harder to run out than nine ball, the break is much less important, and in this spot it is not a big enough factor to interfere with our shot choice.

Secondly, anyone who said go for the pot – again your pretty clearly right in terms of looking at the table. Archer is more than capable of slotting this in enough to make it an easy take, we are one shot away from the game, and even if we miss we should have another shot regardless of who breaks. Positive aggression is nearly always the best policy, and this spot is no different. From the way the diagram is – go for the shot.

However, this would be far too simple, so we get the bonus analysis, which requires you to watch the shot on the video here (part two, around 30ish minutes in). Archer does what we all expect, he takes a good long look, even cues up the angle on the ten a few times, and gets down to play the pot. However, something just does not feel right to him in his cuing. He is a little overstretched, obviously does not feel comfortable, and does something very important – he pulls up and plays safe.

Time and time again you see weak players go through this exact same routine, except they don't pull up, they stay in that same uncomfortable pose and take on the shot, usually missing and losing the game. The moral of this story is something both good pool and poker players alike know – trust your instincts. If a spot feels nasty, then it probably is, and you should get up and try again, or seriously consider another shot.

In this case Archer played a nice safety shot, won the safety battle after a short while, and took the title – something which may have been very different had he continued from a horrible position that he just was not happy with.

Solution: Go for the pot. However, if it feels wrong when down for the shot, or if over stretched and uncomfortable stroking, either get up and try getting down again, or go for the safety.

Last edited by RayPowers; 03-29-2011 at 09:49 AM. Reason: answer added

03-22-2011 , 05:57 PM

GarthAlgar

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,332

If I'm on the hill, I dont see the point in playing safe no matter who has the next break.(considering from personal experience, that 10-ball racks are very hard to make a ball on the break). Diagram also shows, there hasnt been a single break and run (B&R) in the entire match.

Since I am Archer and precision pool is a top quality in my pool game, I would cut the ten in the bottom left pocket.
Although the "Diamond" pool tables(table in the diagram), is notorious for having tight corner pockets, banking the ten into the top left corner is a higher percentage shot to take, and more likely to rattle the pocket.
All in all, go for the shot and dont play safe.

03-23-2011 , 06:50 PM

Frank the Tank

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,458

Both cases, I'll cut it into the bottom left. I think the question of who's breaking next is just a red herring when applied to 10 ball. It'd be a totally different story if it was 9 ball because it's easier to sink a ball off the break on a 9 ball rack than a 10 ball rack. The facts remain that I can end it here and now, there is no safety option, and I'm a damn good shooter.

03-24-2011 , 05:16 PM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,201

the one thing i'm doing is not playing safe. either the cut or the bank seem decent options, probably close to even in ev for someone of archer's quality. i'd lean towards the bank as i think there's more chance of leaving it safe if we miss

03-25-2011 , 01:00 PM

dinopoker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 9,437

I feel like Johnny would make the cut shot a fairly high percentage of the time. It's reachable and he doesn't have to do anything with the cue ball. The bank is 'safer' if you miss, but at this level you just don't think about missing. You make the shot and win.

03-27-2011 , 12:10 PM

sorrow

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 1,531

Just found this sub-forum, and had to look up the rules to 10-ball.

I'm breaking next - cut into the ball, it should be the more consistent shot but will leave the ball hanging on a miss. Break in a hill-hill frame is important, even if it is just for 1st safety.

Deuel is breaking next - Bank and try to glue the white to the bottom rail, with the object ball enough pace to jaw safe, but not rebound past the middle should i miss the jaws entirely.

03-28-2011 , 05:23 PM

Cueball

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 467

I don't think it matters who is breaking next, cutting that ball in is the best option. If it were a left handed player, it might be a different story but since Johnny shoots right handed he doesn't have to use a bridge or stretch out and doesn't have to do anything special with the cueball. Passing on a ball that you're a favorite to make to take on a more difficult bank simply because your opponent is breaking in the event you miss is simply negative thinking and won't win you much. Shoot at your hole when you get the chance...

03-29-2011 , 09:49 AM

RayPowers

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 9,916

Bump for answer added in OP.

03-29-2011 , 01:55 PM

gregorio

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 39,357

glad to see archer pulled up before shooting. i thought the answer would involve him doing this a dozen times and picking invisible bits of fluff off the table each time and then finally taking his shot 5 minutes later.

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