Problem of the week number three sees us in pretty standard amateur snooker territory. The loose reds have all been cleared, most of the colours remain on their spots, and we have just knocked in a red and left ourself the choice of the colours. Question a) is a complete non question – we trail by a huge margin, desperately need to get a decent score in, and the only shot you can ever take here is to pot the black and screw into the reds.

Question b) is the polar opposite – this is a near complete coin flip depending on how comfortable you feel with the two relevant shots. Potting the black to leave your opponent needing snookers is fine, as is trying to get a colour near the cushion and leave your opponent snookered/very far into baulk. Both give you very high winning percentage chances against an amateur player – and either answer is OK in this spot depending on the exact nuances of your game.

I tried to design this problem with the intention of finding a good coin flip spot in amateur snooker, but one that changed a great deal if your opponent was a professional, so here is some analysis in how and why the correct shot selection would usually change against a world class player.

Although a colour safe on the cushion is a hindrance to all players, pro standard players can usually negotiate these balls pretty easily, either simply potting them down the relevant rail or moving them out with a cannon. Not only that, but a snooker/safety is pretty worthless vs a top player here, as at very best they will simply roll dead weight off of one cushion and nudge into the pack – leaving you facing a long and gruelling safety game vs a pro.

Secondly, pro standard players have little problem playing on and winning needing two or more snookers against amateurs, so simply potting the eight and playing safe will often leave a similar situation as just playing the safety in the first place, and there is actually very little difference between these shots against a pro – a snooker is just not a very big advantage for you.

This leaves only the original shot – the black and the canon into the pack. This is nearly always the correct shot against a pro, as it leaves you with a very solid chance to win the frame at that visit (realistically one more red and a colour should leave any player sitting down). Against all very good players in snooker your primary concern is to keep them in their seat for as long as possible, and if you are outmatched by your opponent by a very large margin you should usually be looking to take a slightly bigger risk on a certain shot(s) if they hugely reduce the possible future risk.

Although you may well miss the black, split the reds, and lose the frame without out another shot 10-20% of the time, the rest of the time you will usually win, as opposed to taking on two shots that you are unlikely to miss, but ones that still leave your opponent a large percentage chance of winning the frame.

Just as you should rarely push small edges against weak poker players, and choose to wait for better spots; but often should push small edges against good players as you may not find better future opportunities, so it is in this problem, where the solution drastically changes depending on the ability of your opponent and how that effects the winning percentages in the end game of the frame.

Solution: In a) you should pot the black and break into the pack. In b) against an amateur you should either push a colour onto the rail and leave the white at the baulk end or roll the black in dead weight and play safe next shot; but against a pro you should play the same shot as in a).