So in problem of the week 27 we are in a nasty spot at the money end of a game of UK 8 ball. We have very little angle to play with on the shot we have, and with the tightness of UK pockets there is very little we can do with the cue-ball if we want to have any real chance of potting the ball.

To add to this, we have a nasty yellow up-table, stuck to the rail and not looking pretty. We also have the black in open play, and a very skilled opponent who so far seems to be able to pot most things from most parts of the table. We are also 6-1 down, and despite being a casual game, getting beat badly is never nice.

Not a great situation.

However, just like in poker and backgammon, in pool we are always trying to maximise what equity we do have, and in this case we have two plausible options:

1. Roll the yellow nearest to us over the pocket, leave a hard black for our opponent, hope he misses and try and run out.

2. Sink our yellow, then try and bank the far yellow into the same pocket the black is over. Low percentage shot on such a table, but one that wins us the game if we make it, and that carries an OK extra safety shot if the yellow rattles and stays over the pocket.

Option one has the obvious and very real problem of letting the opponent back to the table. Banks are one of the strongest areas of any good pool players game, and this shot is probably 70% to go in if not more when such a player goes for it. Not great equity. We are also not guaranteed to get on the final ball even if everything goes to plan – accurate table length screw shots and position off rail shots are never easy on random tables for amateurs, and we may not win the game even if our opponent misses.

Option two also has an obvious flaw – if we miss the very hard table bank even slightly, we leave a gimme for the game. It has a bonus that option one does not though (albeit a slim one) – you can win without the dangerous opponent getting back to the table, which is always a massive priority against good players.

So we have a pretty simple equity calculation – compare the odds that you think you will cover the pocket or sink the table bank against what you think the chances of the opponent are of making the double and you running out if/when they miss.

However, in this case, this equity calculation is probably pretty similar. The chances of a good amateur with decent positional play getting the bank close to or in the pocket is probably about 70%, and there is not much in the rough equities involved. So is there anything else to consider? Well, yes, and in this case it is the score.

Good players thrive off of big leads, and your key priority here is to desperately try and get some frames on the board and get back in the game. Just like when being run over in poker, in pool at some point you have to make a stand, and taking a stand in pool involves either getting much more aggressive and trying to take the game away a little and shake up your opponent, or slowing them down with lots of safety play. There is no solid safety option here really (certainly not one that will slow up an aggressive player with a big lead), and for this reason, in a spot such as this where the equities are all relatively similar, I think I always err towards playing the aggressive option – sink the yellow and try and table bank to other win the game or cover the pocket.

Solution – go for the aggressive shot. Sink the yellow nearest the cue ball and try the table bank/double at pocket speed/dead weight to either sink it and win the game, or cover the pocket.

In this actual situation, Jackal69 rolled the yellow over the bottom right corner, and I sunk the double. However, this game seemed to tilt him a little into opening his game up a lot. He won the next three with some very daring and aggressive play (often successfully taking on spots much harder than the one here), which shook me up enough to force me to roll in my game a bit and start playing tactically astute pool rather than the potting blitzkrieg I had been employing up to then.

Playing a more advanced and balanced game, and with the alcohol affecting him a bit more than it was me, I won all of the games after his mini-comeback, finishing the match at 15-4; although had he got aggressive here and got it back to 6-2 rather than 7-1 before his comeback, the match may have played out quite differently.