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Problem of the week 26. Problem of the week 26.

02-10-2011 , 12:00 PM
You are a skilled road player, maybe slightly off of pro standard but certainly a tough match up for anyone other than truly world class players. You are in a large hall in a new town playing a first to ten set of cash ten ball with a house cue against a local regular who, although also playing with a house cue, seems competant.

The score is one all with an alternate break format, and the guy is already talking about another match with you once this one is finished, due to some intentionally sloppy play from you in the first two games.

The table is a well cut and mainatined regulation US table.

You break and are left with the following situation:



a) In the above situation, best shot and why?

b) Should your choice change in a tournament match against a highly skilled player?

Solution:

Spoiler:
Before we delve into the nitty and gritty of the two questions, it's worth looking at some general considerations we should me making in the two scenarios.

Cash games vs capable amateurs.

Just like in poker, against weaker players we want to create an environment of action that interests them and keeps the game running. In poker this takes the form of playing more hands than is optimal, and in pool it takes the form of taking on some higher risk shots than you would against very high level players, and trying to maintain an unthinking and carefree approach to the table.

However you phrase it, playing safe, or calmly making thoughtful run outs and controlled finishes is not interesting to a fish – sitting there trying to work out angles to get out of an obscure snooker or sitting in there chair and watching methodical play is just not what they play for, and safe/conservative play should basically always be your last resort in such games. In fact, common to what many people would think, playing bold, aggressive shots is just what capable, gambling amateurs want to see from you – even if they do go in the pockets – as they at least know that there will be action down the line and chances for them to win.

However, all of this has to be balanced with not just throwing games away, which leads us on nicely to the general theme of question b).

Tournament games vs skilled pros.

In these games keeping up the action is the least of our priorities. We are being forced to play a certain distance, and really could not care less about what happens afterwards. We know our opponent is good, and we don't want to give them anything. Good safeties and controlled run outs become the order of the day, and we simply want to maximise our EV over all other considerations.

With all this in mind, onto the solutions.

a) We have to play for the ten here. It is the action shot, carries a decent chance of winning the game at this visit, will often move it away from the pocket if we miss leaving the game still far from over, and is the exact sort of shot that fish routinely go for (much like how bad poker players react to ace king every time they look at it, basically all amateurs instantly over play situations where money balls are over pockets), which keeps them from suspecting we are many levels above them. That being said, it's still a high risk shot, so is there any way to balance this risk and get our EV a little higher?

In this spot, yes, and it involves a shot like this:



By playing the screw from the one into the ten, we give ourselves a great chance to sink the ten, but by also playing the one half ball off the black, we frequently also sink the one – a nice way of hedging our bet a little if the movement to the ten goes wrong, while also maintaining the action style so crucial against amateur gamblers.

Solution: Screw up and try and sink the ten, while shooting the one half ball onto the eight to send it into the corner pocket.

b) Here, we can forget playing for the ten directly, and simply move on to the highest EV shot over all. This is basically broken down into two possible routes, both starting with the plant from the one to the five. Personally I just play to run out from there, but to players comfortable with plants and cannons and/or weaker at running out, taking the one onto the ten next shot is probably the higher EV shot.

Either way, we can forget the risk needed to preserve our unthinking and action image, and simply go for the game. We should also look to play aggressively here – we are a good payer, and although there are many solid safety options on, we already have more than a good enough opener to attack and try and take the game down without our opponent touching the table - which is always the key priority against highly skilled players.

Solution: Plant the one onto the five, and depending on your skill set, leave the white so you can either run out, or simply cannon the one onto the ten.

Last edited by RayPowers; 02-17-2011 at 11:12 AM. Reason: Solution Added
02-10-2011 , 06:28 PM
i'd probably just try to draw back onto the 10, but i'm very fps with those sorts of combinations
02-10-2011 , 08:25 PM
What if you came down off the bottom rail (bottom meaning bottom of the picture), and thinned the one and tried to pocket the 10 with the white. If you miss it seems like you've left it safe with the one right in the mix and the cueball up table. Maybe I'm way off...
02-10-2011 , 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
i'd probably just try to draw back onto the 10, but i'm very fps with those sorts of combinations
I mean it's plausible but involves too many risks and even if you were >50% to make it I'm sure other plays leave you with a better chance to win the game. Think of pool like poker, whats the most +EV option, and it's not always the most immediate way to grab the cash.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stakman1011
What if you came down off the bottom rail (bottom meaning bottom of the picture), and thinned the one and tried to pocket the 10 with the white. If you miss it seems like you've left it safe with the one right in the mix and the cueball up table. Maybe I'm way off...
Are you suggesting kicking at the 1ball? If so I mean just no.



OP. I mean like most situations there are a lot of options available.
I can't tell how well the combo is supposed to line up but from what I see in your illustration it looks like it's totally viable to shoot the combo and snatch the rock to have shape on the 1 to run out. In game I'd almost always shoot the combo from how it looks.
I'm assuming theres supposed to be something off about the combo tho so for the sake of this thread I'll offer up a safety.



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You'll get a little movement out of the 8/6/4 but I see that spread coming out in our favor because of the lay.
02-11-2011 , 12:19 AM
a)
Against this guy, I'll just draw the cue ball into the 10, like sixfour suggested.

This shot creates a somewhat reckless image, and that will work in our favor later the game. If we play "road player" speed, this shot will have like a 70%-80% success rate.

b)
In a tournament, I'll play the safety that SiQ described..
We cant draw the cueball into the 10 like we did in the previous case, for a two reasons imo.
- This shot will open the rack and we're playing against a guy who runs out and does not make unforced errors. If we miss this rack is basically over.
- The safety option is not difficult , and has a decent chance for ball in hand.
- This is a tournament. If we lose the match, we're out. We cant take unnecessary chances at 1-1. This can be the turning point of the match.

Last edited by 9ball; 02-11-2011 at 12:34 AM.
02-11-2011 , 12:56 AM
Yeah I was suggesting kicking at it, but I pretty much never play 9 ball (or 10 ball, ldo) and I'm not very good, so that could well be an incredibly stupid idea. Interested to see more responses.
02-11-2011 , 03:10 AM
In scenario A, what about pushing out to about here?



You dare the reg to cross side the 1 ball into the 10 ball. If he does, he probably gets on a rush and you could negotiate the next game for higher stakes. If he doesn't see the cross side into the 10, he could be baited into shooting the 1 into the other side pocket, in which case he doesn't have a shot on the 2 ball if he sinks it. If he returns the shot to you, you can go for the win right now and he'll probably think it's all luck and you could use that to negotiate higher stakes for the next game.

In the tourney situation, I'd play the 1 ball right into the 8 ball without breaking the pack while moving the cue ball so the 5 is blocking the cue from the 1. The 1 cushion escape from the bottom rail is cut off by the 3 ball, 2 or 3 cushion escapes are not on, and the only choice is 1 cushion off the top rail where he would not likely sink any balls but would break up the pack even if he succeeds.
02-13-2011 , 04:25 AM
I just shoot the one five combo with a heavy stun stroke, trying to have the one ball head left (up) after hitting the five, then follow up with the combo or billiard on the ten. Then I make some comment about how lucky it was that the ten ended up over the hole and order a drink.

Against a pro I probably play the combo and just hold the cueball for position on the one in the same pocket as the five. All the balls go, so it's easy enough to just run out.
02-13-2011 , 12:27 PM
dino do you mean like this...



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If so this was what i first though. seems fairly easy solution to end the game quickly with out showing off your "skill" and playing a fancy shot.

I'm not sure if the angle is quite there to play it like I have it but it looks about right, with the big american pockets you can force a bit of an angle some times.
02-13-2011 , 01:05 PM
i was thinking the 1-5 to leave the 1-10, but i'm not sure if the angle really works without needing to cannon one of the 4/6/8 cluster, potentially leaving awkward cueing

thinking about this more i really like siq's option
02-13-2011 , 01:06 PM
Yeah, something like that. If you hit the one firm it should walk up table a bit and leave you a shot at the ten.
02-15-2011 , 09:12 PM
I would go with the sure shot lool
02-17-2011 , 11:13 AM
Bump for solution added.
02-19-2011 , 02:04 PM


Is the risk/reward in this shot worth it?

If we sink the 1 we have no offensive shot on the 2 and there's always a chance that when you miss a tricky 2 way pot that you miss both and in that case you leave the 1 over the pocket with the 2 right next to it..

I have no problem in going for the 10 but I'd rather play a shot where the 1 is gonna end up somewhat safe as opposed to here where if I make the 1 I can't run out but if I sell it he can.
02-19-2011 , 02:17 PM
The pace you have to play this shot to screw into the ten leaves very little chance of leaving the one over that pocket. If you miss it will be moving away by at least a foot if not more depending on the exact table. Even if we do leave it up, early in this sort of match it is not a disaster. We keep a big action image, and with the balls in the pack moving, we frequently have some kind of insurance policy somewhere as balls cover each other or go awkward.

We also have a great offensive/safe shot on the two if we miss the ten but sink the one. Play the table bank pocket speed and we have a good chance of sinking the two, and should also be able to hide a shot on it behind some of the balls in the corner if we miss (a lot of this depends on where the balls end after our split, but we should still have enough to work with), as well as usually being able to leave a simple shot on the 3 from the same area if we sink it - a great freeroll.

      
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