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Problem of the week 20. Problem of the week 20.

12-30-2010 , 11:53 AM
You are a solid amateur player, with a decent track record in potting pressure balls, holding down a 55ish% average in a high standard local league, and reasonably experienced in cash play. What should you do in these three spots?

a) An unknown man comes in to your local club and asks if you want to play mid stakes doubles one pocket against the two best players in the club (both very good league players, but somewhere off pro standard). You have to put up half the money with him – should you accept?

b) An unknown man and one of the weakest weak players in the club (misses medium and above distance shots often, little grasp of positonal play or tactics) approach you and want to play 8 ball for money with rotating breaks (you break alternatively, and whoever shot last from their team breaks on their turns) – should you accept?

c) The same example as in b) but they offer you the break every game and your choice of 8 ball or 9 ball – should you accept? If yes, do you pick 8 ball or 9 ball as the game of choice?

Answer:
Spoiler:
a) One of the single greatest routines to get action in new halls is to approach a medium ability regular and try to get them to play doubles for money against the better players in a club. This is especially pronounced in games that have very large skill gulfs between players – such as one pocket and snooker, where a pro player can basically play with anyone and still win a straight game – and unless you know the two league players as being very shady, you should usually accept this sort of offer from an unknown.

It is often hard for the good players in a hall to back down from a cash offer from a known weaker player regardless of who they partner up with, and this can be exploited very well by skilled hustlers, who know that picking a partner like this can often prove highly lucrative. This is especially pronounced in a highly tactical game like one pocket, where they can advise you on shots and strategy at points which hugely increases your actually ability as a solid amateur and thus your ability as a team.

However, in this key spot you have one major concern – being asked to put up your own money and getting cheated by all players involved. With that in mind, lets look at the two basic things that happen in this spot:

1) You get ganged up on for one or two mid stakes buy ins, lose it and quit.

2) You get in a highly lucrative game with a pro speed player against two guys unlikely to back down quickly.

Of these, number one does not happen at a high enough frequency to make this not a positive ev spot in the long run, and you should accept the game and keep a close eye on how the first couple of games play out.

Solution: You should accept unless you know the other two players to be shady, and quit if you lose the first game or see anything strange in the game.


b) Assuming that players carry on with their visit until they miss (9ball makes a great analysis below of what your considerations are in spots with one shot each formats if you are interested in how that changes the game), this is going to appear to be a hard game for you if the unknown is pro speed. The unknown will usually break and clear most games they start (so that's 1 out of 4 you lose regardless of how you play), and will punish any mistakes you make in open play very harshly.

However, when you do get in you can radically change your play to fit the order, snookering the unknown most shots where you cannot run out, which basically gives you a 2 to 1 ratio of shots over them, as the weak player has basically zero chance of running out or getting you in trouble.

Not only will the weak player rarely do anything when you miss (taking a great deal of the pressure off, and allowing you to play much more aggressively when the weak player is behind you), you can also get numerous free balls in hand by snookering the weak player consistently – allowing you much easier safety shots/run outs when it is the unknown next. This is a huge edge in a game like 8 ball, and one which comes very close to nullifying even a quite large skill edge.

Even against one of the best players in the world, you are not in too bad shape here on the whole, and against anyone slightly under pro ability you are a big favourite. As a result, you should take it, see just how good the unknown is and quit if you are playing badly or the unknown seems unstoppable.

Solution: Accept, and quit if you play badly, the unknown plays out of his skin, or the weak player suddenly seems to be good.


c) If we should accept in b), we most certainly should accept in c), where we get the breaks each time. The question becomes one of which game to pick. If in b) we are using safety play a great deal to establish our edge, we should pick nine ball, as it is a much easier game to play good safeties in, as the opposition only has one object ball to aim at each visit. A solid and tactically astute amateur is a decent favourite over even a world class player here as long as the bad player is actually weak, and you can win a lot of money here if the unknown thinks they have an edge as long as you keep the unknown from having any easy starting shots.


Solution: Accept, and play nine ball until the weak player starts to play very well, or you win all the money/they quit.

Last edited by RayPowers; 01-05-2011 at 10:11 AM. Reason: Answer Added
01-02-2011 , 05:24 PM
a) First instinct would be not to. I have no idea how good the unknown is, and even if I knew, I don't know if he's gonna dump the mach on purpose and split my money later w/ the 2 best players in the club... too many unknown factor to jump into a mid stakes game.

b) I'm not sure how this double format works Its one shot each (like mosconi cup format)? Or 1 rack each? Or 1 inning each?
So you play single against unknown/weak local team? In that case, I'll snap-accept. A team overall skill is almost equal to the weaker player skill( playing 1 shot each). However, i think I'm missing something here...cause this appears to be too easy.

c) 9ball. As opposed to 8ball, this game always has longer/shots and requires a good stroke by default, even if strategically is not as complicated as 8ball. The weak local player is certain to miss long shots or ran out of position much more often then he would in 8ball.(again im assuming 1 shot each format)
01-02-2011 , 05:33 PM
Yeah sorry I forgot to include the order point (although it in itself raises a good sub problem). Assume that you each player continues until they miss, although a spot where the shots alternate is also an interesting one so your analysis is certianly not wasted.
01-04-2011 , 03:14 AM
for both im assuming that the unknown plays close to pro speed - a reasonable presumption imo.

b) I'll probably still accept, but this is closer. I like the rotating breaks. The weak player is certain to shoot and given his lack of tactics he will sellout most of the time.

c) I'll still pick 9ball, because its easier to play safeties imo.
Even the unknown kicks very well, to safety battle will probably go :
-I play a reasonable safety
-Unknown kicks / plays another safety
-I shoot and miss or play safe
-Weak player sells out.

So by picking 9ball we're basically forcing the unknown to run out every time because he cant really play safeties knowing that even if he gets ball in hand his partner will not run out.

i also like 9ball better
01-05-2011 , 10:11 AM
bump with solution added in OP

      
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