Quote:
Originally Posted by vyk07
Staying loyal is completely +EV in that spot if you want to be drawing live to the million
As soon as he was designated the "spy", the effective chances at $1M dropped within his own tribe.
If he doesn't flip tonight, how many votes do you think he will be able to muster from the other tribe come the final? Zero. How many will he get from his own tribe, if he even got there?
Paint me a scenerio where he gets to final three in his own tribe and has the respect of the jury from his own tribe to get any votes? There is simply no path for Cochrane to get to final 3 in his own tribe and still being seen as deserving of $1M. he simply can't muster votes from either tribe if he stays. not sure why people can't see that.
Sure, he is not in the greatest sitaution now, but he is on the tribe with the numbers and he'll be a popular guy to take to the final three because everyone knows he won't get ANY votes from his old tribe.
So, seeing as he had no real path to $1M either way, he made the best move possible by switching. He can now watch the old tribe get picked off, and also watch his new tribe re-align in an attempt to KEEP Cochrane and take him to the final three.