seriously

where's the incentive for any of them to flip on bradley when they know even if it goes bad, they're still safe and at worst in a 4-4 situation

bradley kind of has a punchable face

admirable effort by the minority there. its always nice to see some creativity with the advantages that isnt plain stupid and actually makes some sense. thought all 4 of them fought hard. agree that it didnt give the other tribe any incentive to switch since they weren't in danger anyways. they didnt show any whispering or changing votes (since they were gonna vote michael originally) so that kinda faked me out

not sure why they switched up the rules of ghost island this time to have someone go without missing a tribal. also thought it was smart of kellyn (sp?) to not play the game since her vote was obv important. id think most people would automatically play and feel like they're supposed to

sucks for brendon. obv 'leaders go out early' is a long lasting survivor cliche, but as far as leaders go, he didnt seem bad. didnt seem like he irritated anyone on his original tribe, and it seemed like he kept a level head and had an awareness of what was going on in the game

its hard to argue people are on the bottom of an alliance pre-merge though. if you're 4/5 out of 9, thats perfectly fine because the game isnt ending with this tribe. so even if chelsea or sebastian felt they were n the bottom, it doesnt really mean anything because you dont know their relationship with the rest of their original tribe. they might as well stay safe til the merge when everything changes

there were 17 people left. i would not say the merge is 'soon.' and even if it was, the #s of the original tribes would be very important. it doesnt do you much good to keep the idol if your tribe is outnumbered by 2+. and using the idol on someone else like that is a nice way to gain longlasting trust of all three of steph/jenna/brendon, which is valuable. its like an actual selfless thing you can do in survivor, so its not bad to do that in front of everyone and have them see you as selfless.

individual idols are obv very helpful, but id rather have the numbers. you can only use the idol once anyways

Playing the game at Ghost Island when you're in a slim 5-4 majority back at camp seems pretty bad. During episode I also felt like Kellyn was making the correct decision to not play

Same. In real-time I was thinking it was a close decision but that she should do the unusual thing and not play.

I thought Michael played the discussion portion of tribal well. Someone should have challenged him on the idol having double power, but he could have just said he didn't bring the note. That said, isn't this the second time in the last two seasons where someone has tried to make soul reads before playing an idol and then played it incorrectly? I seem to remember Joe bumbling in that spot.

As others stated, announcing that Bradley is the target deincentivizes the others to betray their alliance. But Michael made some real headway in making Bradley look bad and getting Bradley to say douchey things, and sometimes that's enough to get someone to flip. Nowadays, it seems like players are robotic enough to not get swayed by optics, but there was a time.

I think you should show sebastian and chelsea the idol back at the beach. and then chill with them. if they even go and talk to their original tribe, say the vote goes on you.

i say go to both of them because a pair is more likely to flip than one individual.

Good episode. I feel bad for Brendan but he was pretty generic so I don't mind losing him this early.

I was impressed by the way he mentioned the double power, most would emphasize it too much or go over it too quickly, the dude was stone cold calm and collected.

Shame they blew it by saying Bradley. Obviously should've said they're splitting between Sea Bass and Chelsea and they're coinflipping for their life in this game. This gives the extra possibility that they both vote eachother in an attempt to make it 3/2 and the minority just straight up votes out bradley even with a misplayed idol.

Decent attempt by the minority and pretty believable. Nice close-up work on Bradley's face as you could see he was scared when Michael named Brendon and then relieved when he switched to Stephanie.

Bradley is eminently punchable but in a way it's good to have him still around. Every season needs a villain.

I was just thinking about something like this. I think they would have been better to say that they are splitting the votes, two on Bradley and two on Chelsea. The problem with their plan is that Bradley is the most likely to do something desperate to stay in the game but they gave him zero options to do anything other than try to get everyone to stay the course.

I think there is a reasonable chance Bradley puts his vote on Chelsea if he believes that Chelsea will stick with voting for Brendan. In my scenario I think it would be correct for the Malolo's to all vote for Chelsea. If neither flips they still have a 25% of being right with the idol, if Bradley flips or both flip Chelsea goes home and Bradley loses trust with his former allies and if Chelsea flips then it goes to a tie with Bradley being the deciding vote.

Joe played it similar to Michael, but he got it right and guessed correctly. For him it was a 5050 though

This is correct. If you're Michael, say that your tribe is splitting their 4 votes among whoever you view is most likely to flip (Bradley) and who is probably least likely to flip. Then load up on that person and pray for Bradley to flip. That + the 25% equity you have from the idol I think puts your team over 50% to survive and send one of theirs home.

I don't think anyone has mentioned it, but I think the optimal way to play Ghost Island is if you are offered a challenge, you choose to go for it, and you win, you should tell the tribe when you return that you were offered a challenge but chose not to risk it. If you try to lie and say that you didn't get offered a challenge, they'll ask for proof by wanting to see your parchment that said "Sorry no game for you today". But if you give them the half lie, and then "prove" it by showing them the parchment proving that you were offered a challenge, they're more likely to believe it AND be grateful that you made a decision for the best of your tribe (like in her case this week).

Of course, pulling this off would require it being believable based on your image out there. If people think you're aggressive, or a risk taker, or a gamer, they might not buy that you passed up on an opportunity for an advantage. Like Jacob wouldn't have been able to sell this. But a lot of them would have.

Michael was cool as ice tonight. Props to him for making a valiant effort. He may not have been creative enough to think the whole thing through but he definitely is more savvy than most contestants twice his age.

One more thing. Bradley is not only a douche but his "strategy" of freezing out the 4 on the other tribe is just such terrible Survivor play, both specifically and in general. Specifically because it's better to have the minority tribe think they've got a fighting chance by, say, having one of your own buddy up to them and say they're willing to flip. Because then if any of them have idols, they're more likely to hang on to them.

But in the more general sense, you never know what this game might bring, and it's pretty much ALWAYS better to have more people trusting in you, liking you, etc. Freezing them out just limits your options down the line. So stupid. Bradley definitely sees himself as some kind of Boston Rob.

I think Kellyn made the correct decision not playing the Ghost Island thing. If she played and lost, she has to explain to her tribe why and they might not go to rocks to keep her around when she made that selfish play?

Plus if it is anything as bad as Jacob's advantage, having to will it to somebody to activate, it's a slam dunk.

I think Michael had to reveal the idol at camp and see if it causes any commotion. You can tell each of the Naviti people something different in private and just get the pot stirring. I don't mind the idea of the 2-2 either.

If he's not playing it on himself, could it be better for Michael to hold on to his idol after bluffing with it though? In the chance that no one flips AND you play it correctly, it's 4v4 still. Otherwise keep it, it'll be 5v3, they can't split, higher chance of playing it correctly, more time for fractures and further swaps to happen.

Agree with those saying that claiming two immunities was a great move, and that Michael handled the explanation well, even if he botched the rest of the plan. Nobody questioned the two immunities, and Naviti seemed to buy it. When Michael tells Jeff he's playing it for himself and Brendan, then Bradley turns away in disgust. But when Michael says, nope, I'm playing it for Steph, then Bradley breathes a sigh of relief.

Seems possible to make a soul read at that moment. But Michael wasn't even looking at the tribe when he says he's going to play it for Steph, he's just looking at Jeff. He made his decision on who to play it for too early, without waiting for Naviti's reactions.

Agree with this, but I was thinking of making it Bradley vs Sebastian. Sebastian seemed to be the most likely to flip, based on his reactions at tribal, but he just didn't have any incentive to do so. If you incentivize both Bradley and Sebastian to flip, then you increase your chances that at least one of them does.

Why would you make the other person the least likely to flip? Wouldn't the two who are most likely to flip on each other (possibly Bradley vs Sebastian) be the best play?

I did some math on this. Imagine that you do Bradley vs Sebastian, and you think that each one is 50% likely to flip on the other. You put all 4 votes on Bradley. 50% of the time, Sebastian flips and you have 5 votes and Bradley goes home. Out of the remaining 50% of the time, there is 50% chance Bradley flips (25% chance overall that this happens), making it a tie where Sebastian is the deciding vote. In which case he knows that Bradley just flipped on him, so he sides with Malolo and votes Bradley out. The remaining 25% of the time that neither flip, you still have 25%* chance of using the idol correctly (6.25% chance this happens).

So you have 50% + 25% + 6.25% = 81.25% chance of Bradley going home, including 75% chance where Sebastian has flipped to your side. Obviously this is high, but by using that formula of x%+(1-x%)*x%+(1-x%)(1-x%)(25%)=50%, you only need the individual chances of Bradley and Sebastian to flip on each other to be at least 18.4% each, in order for your tribe to have >50% chance of sending Bradley home. Pretty good odds.

*You might even be able to increase the chance of using the idol correctly to 33% chance, because the other team is almost never going to vote for you as the idol holder, since they assume there is a high chance you play it for yourself. (When a situation like this has occurred, has the other tribe ever voted for the idol holder?) So you can just guess among the other three of your tribemates who to play it on, for 33% chance. If this 33% figure is accurate, then you would only need the individual chances of Bradley and Sebastian to flip on each other to be at least 13.4% each, in order for your tribe to have >50% chance of sending Bradley home.

This is correct if you choose to play the game. But the question is, is choosing to play the game worth 50% chance of losing your vote? In the case of a 5-4 tribal split like Kellyn had, then I would say no. If you had a 6-3 split and were confident in it, then maybe yes. Or if you were in the minority and down 4-5 or worse, then maybe yes. In fact, a case can be made that the 5-4 split like Kellyn had is the only time that you should decline the game, and that you should play it in all other times.

Also, if you play and lose, you obviously tell your tribe that you were forced to play, or make something else up. But you don't say that you chose to play in order to try to win an advantage, and cost the tribe your vote.

From one of Bradley's confessionals: "I'm trying to play like a Boston Rob or a Kim Spradlin, you know, someone who's got the numbers and is in control and just needs to keep the ducks in a row. So I think stonewalling the original Malolo people is the best tactic at this point."

If Michael keeps the idol and is down 3-5 and then plays it correctly, then he's still down 3-4. Might as well try to use it now and make it 4-4. For the following TC, you would have to flip someone in either case, but if you don't, then at 4-4, at least it's a tie and you go to rocks, vs losing at 3-4.

If he always plays it on himself at that 3v5, we're talking about him not being at risk until another 2-3 episodes. I'd be surprised if everything is still based on tribal lines by then and/or another swap hasn't occurred.

I'm not convinced about it, but I think there is a little bit of merit to it.

I think they’ve shown people burning their note on ghost island, so I don’t believe bringing it back is allowed. Which is how it should be

minor gripe, and I said this when joe did it last season, but people playing their idols shouldn’t be allowed to slowplay by naming one person and then changing to someone else after seeing reactions. they should have to lock in an answer. you had all of camp and all of tribal to gauge who they might be voting

All this of course assumes they don't rig the games so you always win. Until we see someone actually play and lose I'm going to assume if you play you win.

Thinking about it more I agree she should not play the game at Ghost Island.

FYP

Griping against the string bet is fine, but as long as it's allowed, they should be taking advantage of it, which Michael didn't do effectively.

Re: GI game, it seems like most people are now in agreement that she was correct not to play the game, with a tight 5-4 tribal split. What do you guys think of my assertion that the 5-4 situation is the only situation where she should not play?

For example, do you think she should play if her alliance was up 6-3 or better? What if she was in the minority and down 4-5 or worse?

Would that also apply when playing a fake idol?

Allowing people to string bet with fake idols but not with real ones could set up an awesome scenario where a meta gets established that once the immunity target is announced everyone can let their poker face down, and then BAM, whip out the real idol and make an easy soul read.

i dont anticipate anyone making a string bet with a fake idol anytime soon lol