I'm no fan of Wardog but he had a really good episode. His stock definitely went up this week in my book.

Except those people aren't targeting him. The 5 of them were at tribal and all crying that someone had to go because they all loved each other. Unfortunately Rick got the short end of the stick. Get over it. Get back in bed with the people you were in love with a few days ago

He does because I think he is good at running the likely scenarios, and explaining those scenarios in a convincing way to people he needs to flip.

Also there is no one clearly playing the best game this season, so it's pretty wide open for whoever makes it to F3.

He was convincing this week. Earlier episodes, not so much.

That is true I may be giving him too much credit thanks to the edit he got this week.

I do see him as someone that the other players find somewhat irritating and not much of a challenge threat, which can be a good recipe to get taken to the end. Once there you never know.

He was convincing in earlier weeks as well. He directed and/or changed several Manu votes. He's often, if not usually, correct about strategy.

He's just annoying and badgers people constantly and tries to over-control people and tell them what to do and is not subtle at all and lacks good social game, hence the hate.

He's a good Wardog to have on your side when you're in the minority trying to shake things up. When you're in the majority trying to placate people and handle alliances smoothly, not so much.

Yeah don't understand the hate for Wardog personally, even before this episode. He has lots of issues and is far from a great player but he's definitely better than a bunch of other people this season.

I mean, I'm all for discussing this show based on what we see and hate the "you don't know what's really going on" argument as much as the next guy but lol @ this post.

You know for a fact that the appeal to Aurora did take place because she ***** voted with them. Or did you just assume Aurora flipped all by herself without talking to anyone and it was all a coincidence?

Because fooling (or at least keeping in the dark) viewers in later episodes would become much harder (if not impossible).

We saw exactly 0 footage of evidence that Aurora's vote for Eric was a result of her conspiring with the Lesus, and not the equally as (more?) likely scenario that Gavin, Julie, and Vic filled her in that they were flipping on Eric. She voted with the majority of her old tribe. We have no reason to believe that the Lesus reached out to her.

We have every reason to believe that they all coordinated with each other.

I doubt the casual Survivor fan would seek out spoilers from a strat-heavy show.

You also want to move forward with people who you can beat. You do not want to burn the votes of people who you anticipate will be casting them. And if you are unlikely to garner any challenge winning cred along the way, and are not simply universally liked, you need to appear to have had some semblance of control over your destiny as part of your story. Tucking into a large majority which is comprised of multiple people who have a lot of winner potential is not a terribly attractive option--unless you are a complete slug who has no chance to win anyway. Then, it doesn't really matter what you do, deciding to let some other people use you as their pawn is fine.

Sort of. I just have a hard time seeing it happening. He's not quite personable enough. I have a hard time seeing him being able to beat people in the vote at the end.

This too^. Remember that cumbaya tribal council. They were all so sad that someone had to go. In addition, why not bust up Kama, then he and David try to scoop up some of the pieces and switch sides where they have more credit for being in control of what they are doing?

You can surely speculate on why the Lesus were also on the same page with the Eric vote. And why Kelley and Lauren felt comfortable enough to not play either of their idols. Some conversations probably happened that we didn't see.

In my opinion, the speculation is part of the fun of watching Survivor. Trying to figure out what is going to happen and then why something happened given the incomplete information we are given is part of the enjoyment of this show. If everything was just laid out for us, I don't think it would be as interesting. I know other people may not like a mystery and they want it all spelled out so that there's nothing to think about from episode to episode, but I prefer the format we are getting.

Why do we think Gavin and Julia chose to make this move NOW instead of maybe getting rid of a Lesu or two, then making this move? Were they afraid their intentions might get leaked if they waited? Were they nervous about losing Victoria and/or Aurora to the Eric and Ron faction? Maybe they felt like if they didn't lock down Aurora right now, they risked losing control of her to Eric and Ron. Do people know about Kelley and Lauren's idols? Were multiple people annoyed about how the Joe vote got decided and wanted to clip Eric and Ron's wings sooner rather than later? Were they concerned if they didn't make the move now, Wardog might try selling his sword to the other side?

Who thinks it was too soon? Which of the above concerns would make it valid to go now?

Did Kama ruin their chances for sticking to the end by blindsiding Aurora with the Joe vote? I mean, if Devens wasn't so stubborn about wanting to cut his nose off to spite Lesu's face, Kama could have been in a very sticky spot with the numbers and the idol situation THIS WEEK. And why shouldn't she? Kama showed her she's on the bottom and they don't trust or respect her. And Lesu showed there is plenty of wiggle room on their side because they were on board to target each other the week prior.

I feel like with Aurora showing how annoyed she was about being left out of the vote there would be tremendous value for Kelley and Lauren to snatch her right up for a long term alliance. "We're on the bottom too, but we've got two idols and some allies, if you come with us, we can make something happen and its no skin off our back to have lasting loyalty with you instead of David and Wardog." I feel like Aurora would have to feel pretty confident she would be improving her spot in that scenario. And she doesn't even NEED that to possibly turn on Kama. If she shares Devens' mentality for feeling like she's on the bottom of her alliance she'd be willing to burn them all down for the immediate gratification of it.

Devens and David might also be able to provide a convincing threesome possibility to Aurora, but I think she'd be more receptive to Kelley and Lauren. Particularly if they tell her about how awful Julie thought it was that she was trying to get Victoria to step off while medical was working on Lauren. Lauren could totally play that off like it was no big deal as far as she was concerned, she totally understood.

How does Kama plan to to split the vote with any confidence this week if they are going to include Aurora in their plan?

How confident do you have to be that Kama is ready to split to sit on your hidden immunity idols if you are Kelley and Lauren and you strongly suspect the votes are coming at you? Do they have balls of steel, was the coup THAT transparent, or was this just reckless? Is some of their daring due to the fact that it could be the other one going home? Like "I'll just save mine, and if I'm still here next week, then I can use it."

After thinking about it I think the correct move would have been for the Julia, Gavin and Victoria faction to strongly push to vote out Devens as they don't need him anymore.

Logically he is the best choice because they know he is no longer with the Lesu so he should be really comfortable with Kama and is almost never playing an idol if he has one in this spot. This eliminates the chance of a split vote going wrong, they can flush out any idols from Kelley, Lauren and Wardog, they don't need to include Aurora if they don't want to and it gives them a 6 person majority at final 11. If they can't get Eric, Ron and Julie on board to vote out Devens then it probably would be the right time to flip on them.

How they played it though allowed Kelley and Lauren to sit on their idols and now the game is essentially in chaos and David, Kelley, Lauren and Wardog are now in the best position to control the game.

Gotta make big movez for da teevee tho.

It’s actually amazing how much jeff, the show, and the fan community have beaten big moves into the players

Tribal council is theater. I don't believe in the tears. If I was given the choice to be at the bottom (with David) of that group or to go with this massive alliance that has clear cracks within it I'm taking the gamble. Rick is a fan, he knows they're two idols from the two tribes they're on. Give me cracks plus a chance of finding an idol for myself anytime.

I think convincing people to make moves is the hardest thing to do in Survivor. I'll be the cheerleader for Wardog. He's not getting enough credit.

Sounds like you're agreeing with me (I'm aware you're not) but this is an argument I would argue for flipping on Lesu. I think he looks like a loyal pawn being abused over and over again if he goes back to the tribe that voted him out.

Thinking about jury votes on day 20~ish is crazy especially with EOE in play.

How can we judge when we barely see people interacting at camp?! I am concerned about - I thought he was too aggressive with Rick - but we're not getting confessionals of people throwing him under the bus. I think he's respected but who knows.

I 100% agree and I can't believe myself or anyone else didn't mention this earlier in the thread. From Gavin's secret scenes we know he is a super fan and I can't believe he hasn't thought about flushing idols. He knows what happened to Galu and Timbira.

If you don't vote out someone in the minority the first couple of votes at the merge the big group splinters, has too much drama, and never connects back together again to take them out.

I think Ron forcing Joe out when the vast majority of his alliance pushed for Wentworth had to have played a role in this. But if you're Gavin/Julia and know you're on the bottom I still think it's in your best interest to vote out at least one of the Lesus before taking action on it.

This is from Rick's interview right after the merge episode:

"I loved Lesu. I went to Joe and pitched a Lesu plus Joe and Aurora alliance. David did too. Then Julie came to me and said Wentworth and Lauren wanted to send me right back to the Edge. I was shocked. I couldn't believe they'd do that to me on a personal level, and it made no sense to me on a game level. I thought they'd be overjoyed to have me back. I told David; he was just as confused. As weird as it was to hear, it's important to note that I also never doubted Julie, Ron and Eric were telling me the truth. Lesu had been less than welcoming. I was told by Kama folks that Wardog did not want to do it. Wardog and I were good friends and he was pushing for David to go, but was overruled."

"I felt like Kama was such a big and untested group that they would fracture. I believed if David and I could get Kama to focus on the three other Lesu for a few Tribals, they would turn on each other and David and I would be able to pick our path. David was a lot less comfortable. He felt we were putting too much power in their hands by letting them leave us out of the vote. They did not tell us who they were voting for because they did not trust us. I told them we would vote for Wentworth and they said, "Do it." David and I talked a lot about possibilities but didn't have a lot of options because we did not want the other Lesu to know their plan was not the plan."

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/li...l-more-1198423

Also, note that he feels that EoE was a benefit to getting jury votes. I'm sure others felt the same way.

"I also felt like my time on Extinction could pay off in the form of jury votes. Reem and Chris had never met anyone from Kama and disliked most of Manu. I had made my peace with them, and formed a friendship with Aubry outside of the strategic game."

Rick and Aubry banging on Extinction. Gross.

To add to your discomfort, Wardog says he has sexual tension with Aubry.