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Old 03-14-2019, 09:37 AM   #276
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If the swap didn't happen for one more week, then David and Rick would have been on their own, possibly with an unreliable ally in Wendy (who was likely to vote Wentworth no matter what, leaving David and Rick no flexibility), vs the trio of Wardog, Wentworth, and Lauren. This puts them at 2-3, possibly 3-3.

Whereas, if they had voted out Wentworth, Rick and David would have definitely had Chris with them (cemented by Wardog and Lauren turning on Chris), plus their alliance with Wendy would have been stronger, since they wouldn't have screwed her at the last vote, plus Wentworth would have already been gone, giving them much greater flexibility for the next vote. This puts them at 3-2, possibly 4-2. It is clearly a stronger position.

And no matter which way you divvy up the swap, if things had gone differently, Chris would have been a much stronger ally than any of Wentworth, Wardog, or Lauren.

I already thought this last week, but after this weekend's episode, which confirms it, it was absolutely stupid and indefensible for David and Rick to vote out Chris instead of Wentworth the previous week imo.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:45 AM   #277
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

ya, I just don’t think this episode proved that by any means. I also think they clearly didn’t value Chris as an ally since he gave their plan away, and they probably viewed him as a big challenge threat down the road. they may have noted how quickly he turned on Keith, too.

I wonder if they were too scared Kelley had an idol last episode. doesn’t really make sense to worry about it this vote if they weren’t also worried about it last vote, especially with David’s confessional explaining how Kelley looks for the idol from day one. So that was probably more of a factor than we thought

It is kind of annoying they never showed us David/Rick’s explanation for last week’s vote though. Hard to judge when we don’t even know their reason. Maybe we’ll find it out from EI now
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:30 AM   #278
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Yes, they didn't value Chris as an ally enough, simply for telling Wardog, who they should have known he was already talking to/allied with. That was their mistake.

Chris didn't turn against Rick or David or one of their own, he simply didn't want to leave Wardog completely out of it. Chris had voted with and was allied with Rick and David every single time. On the other hand, Wardog almost immediately turned on Chris, proving that relationship was not very strong. Voting Chris out may have been good for Wardog and Wentworth, but David and Rick should have seen that it is terrible for them, since it almost assures they are in the minority, down 2-3, hoping for wild card Wendy to tie it up. They should have seen that Wardog was allying himself with Wentworth, not them.

Whereas Chris would have been a sure thing with them. I mean, Wardog, Wentworth, and Lauren had turned on him and tried to vote him out. Of course Chris wouldn't trust them, and would stick with David and Rick, who he had always been allied with.

How is any of the above disputable? If you want to present an argument against it vs gut feel, I'll keep an open mind, but so far there's not much of an argument to the contrary. Oh, and I think part of the reason David said that the timing wasn't right for Wentworth in this episode is that he finally realized that Wardog wouldn't turn against Wentworth, so he tried to make the target Lauren instead, which still failed.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:49 AM   #279
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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Originally Posted by ponyboy View Post
They have been on that island for almost a week and haven't built even a semblance of a shelter yet? How useless are these people.
Maybe they don't have the raw materials? I think they probably seed the other islands with bamboo and other stuff that makes a shelter relatively easy to build. If they only have big trees and chunks of driftwood, what are they supposed to do?

Also - was it in the rules that they needed to sort those posts while inside the stand in the last puzzle challenge? Wouldn't it be 10x faster to sort them on the ground, and then slide the completed puzzle into the stand?
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Old 03-14-2019, 11:15 AM   #280
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

I'm assuming that was the case, as that was my immediate thought as well.
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Old 03-14-2019, 11:34 AM   #281
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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Yes, they didn't value Chris as an ally enough, simply for telling Wardog, who they should have known he was already talking to/allied with. That was their mistake.

Chris didn't turn against Rick or David or one of their own, he simply didn't want to leave Wardog completely out of it. Chris had voted with and was allied with Rick and David every single time. On the other hand, Wardog almost immediately turned on Chris, proving that relationship was not very strong. Voting Chris out may have been good for Wardog and Wentworth, but David and Rick should have seen that it is terrible for them, since it almost assures they are in the minority, down 2-3, hoping for wild card Wendy to tie it up. They should have seen that Wardog was allying himself with Wentworth, not them.

Whereas Chris would have been a sure thing with them. I mean, Wardog, Wentworth, and Lauren had turned on him and tried to vote him out. Of course Chris wouldn't trust them, and would stick with David and Rick, who he had always been allied with.

How is any of the above disputable? If you want to present an argument against it vs gut feel, I'll keep an open mind, but so far there's not much of an argument to the contrary. Oh, and I think part of the reason David said that the timing wasn't right for Wentworth in this episode is that he finally realized that Wardog wouldn't turn against Wentworth, so he tried to make the target Lauren instead, which still failed.
sorry, I agree that voting out Chris was a mistake. I was just pointing out why they might have done it, and saying it was pretty unforeseeable that Rick would be next off as a result. because they would've anticipated (a) a normal swap (b) a 3-3 vote with wendy, and maybe being able to sway wardog or (c) just being able to take the easy vote with wendy. it makes a big difference when the bottom of the group is suddenly removed

i do think it's more complicated for david though, especially if you look at the big picture numbers. their tribe is the complete minority, so he probably figures he needs to get joe and aubry on his side and form a new alliance with vets and some of the new players. so voting kelley off would go directly against that

and this was worst case scenario, but even now you could see a situation where it becomes:

joe/aubry/david/kelley
aurora/lauren/wardog

and then its 7 on 7 already

which is much better than the current numbers of 9 original kama vs 5 original manu (with wendy against them)

so for david, even though it didn't work out, i think there's arguments to be made for why he wants kelley in the game. granted, you could take all that logic and say he was bad for plotting against her in the first place, which i'd agree with. i'd say he originally did it just to blend in with that section of his tribe and keep his options open, but i think he got in too deep and felt he could erase that just by voting out chris

for rick, i can't really explain it other than if david was voting chris out, rick would have no choice at that point. we don't know whose decision it really was so it's very hard to say. i don't remember even seeing many confessionals from rick about voting strategy.
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Old 03-14-2019, 11:38 AM   #282
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

basically i think because of how much their tribe was getting killed, you have to play a different game instead of just playing to win your tribe. so kelley is way more valuable to that end than chris. it makes her an asset instead of a threat, because of how you need joe and aubry
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Old 03-14-2019, 12:55 PM   #283
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

Fair enough. If that's indeed what David was thinking, I still think it's pretty bad. Since this is just speculation though, and you agree with the overall point that voting out Chris was a mistake, I can drop it.
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Old 03-14-2019, 05:14 PM   #284
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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Originally Posted by Carl_Spackler View Post
Also - was it in the rules that they needed to sort those posts while inside the stand in the last puzzle challenge? Wouldn't it be 10x faster to sort them on the ground, and then slide the completed puzzle into the stand?
I thought this the last time that puzzle was done. I can only assume it is enforced, probably for better TV purposes
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Old 03-14-2019, 07:04 PM   #285
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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Did you miss the part where Ron was lying and just trying to hold him at the well so Julia could look through his stuff? Cool giving him credit for the very most basic task that any survivor player has to do though. Good riddance
Agreed that Joe his play sucked, imo he should've tried and get the girl ally (don't know her name sorry) to get a 3rd person on board, much higher chance of being succesful.

But lol@you totally ignoring Wendy releasing the chickens. Do you still think that it is totally unfair for anyone to **** on Wendy?

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How in the world do you think Wendy is bad casting? She has been phenomenal tv. Would you rather have 18 Chris’s?
I must admit I enjoyed the hell out of the close up of her face becoming all twitchy when her new tribe was talking about eating some chicken. Other than that her only tv quality is someone that is enjoyable to hate, and I doubt that is what you are referring to?

I feel bad saying it but I don't think Wendy would've been cast if she didn't have tourettes.



Should've been David that was voted out, I do not understand why they decided to rally against Chris. The fact that it didn't happen might show that David isn't playing a bad game, but it sure looks like he is constantly making the wrong moves imo.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:03 PM   #286
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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Rick was good TV

impressed Lauren sat on that hidden immunity idol
I see what you did there!
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Old 03-14-2019, 11:14 PM   #287
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

Keith gets my vote for most likely to raise the sail. Have no idea what he's waiting for. There is no scenario where he wins even if he miraculously got back in the game.

That is my issue with Extinction Island so far, it hasn't provided any drama and it is serving as a reason to keep early boots on my TV longer, when I'd rather they were just gone and forgotten from the show.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:09 AM   #288
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

Good episode except for the fact that the most likable character with the most potential has been sent to extinction purgatory. Wendy is cute and a lot of fun to watch. It’s too bad she’s playing so self-destructively.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:12 AM   #289
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

Also I thought of a fresh “twist” that could be employed in a future season. First, right before the merge have both tribes battle it out in the challenge, then the tribes merge and there’s the first individual challenge, but the tribe who won the tribal challenge is all immune. I think depending on the dynamics leading up to the merge this could prove to be a really interesting twist.
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Old 03-15-2019, 12:20 PM   #290
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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Keith gets my vote for most likely to raise the sail. Have no idea what he's waiting for. There is no scenario where he wins even if he miraculously got back in the game.

That is my issue with Extinction Island so far, it hasn't provided any drama and it is serving as a reason to keep early boots on my TV longer, when I'd rather they were just gone and forgotten from the show.
I'm willing to bet if Reem decided to go and told him to go with her he would. He's just that mentally useless. And probably just enjoys being around people who actually will talk to him.
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Old 03-15-2019, 12:50 PM   #291
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

Wendy may be playing the worst social game since Brandon Hantz but she is def fun to watch.
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Old 03-15-2019, 01:45 PM   #292
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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I thought this the last time that puzzle was done. I can only assume it is enforced, probably for better TV purposes
The last time?
You mean when Joe last did that exact puzzle?
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Old 03-15-2019, 06:46 PM   #293
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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I feel bad saying it but I don't think Wendy would've been cast if she didn't have tourettes.



Should've been David that was voted out, I do not understand why they decided to rally against Chris. The fact that it didn't happen might show that David isn't playing a bad game, but it sure looks like he is constantly making the wrong moves imo.
Na they love casting train wrecks during mixed returnee/newbie seasons to help the returnees, it's tradition. ( Abi,Phillip, Shamar, Kathy etc). Wendy fits the mould perfectly
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Old 03-15-2019, 08:05 PM   #294
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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Ron is getting the best winner edit imo, and is playing very well, from the limited info we've seen.
Which one is Ron?
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Old 03-15-2019, 08:38 PM   #295
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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Which one is Ron?
Exactly. Winner rarely gets a massive edit at the start at least not in the last ten seasons. Tony I think was an exception.
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Old 03-15-2019, 10:36 PM   #296
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

Yeah, and Nick's edit at the beginning of last season was arguably negative. They've been playing around with the editing a lot lately, especially last season and this season, with the "cliffhangers", flashbacks, etc.

Ron found the Advantage Menu in episode 1, but that didn't go anywhere since his tribe didn't go to TC. I guess it's not a good sign that they didn't re-check in with him in ep 3 about not using it, but that would have been a near worthless scene, so no biggie imo. He's the ringleader of the terrible dancing that I hate, esp when Aubry started twerking on him, but overall that's being portrayed as a positive, and that everyone on his tribe likes him, even when he lies to their faces and sets up secret ransackings of their things.

I've got Ron & Victoria as the ringleaders on their tribe, with the best chances of winning, although it's hard to say for sure, since they've never gone to TC.

The returnees have obviously been featured a lot in the editing, so one of them could always win, but I discount that because of course they're going to feature the returnees, and also, they've pretty heavily shown the newbies being against returnees in general.
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Old 03-15-2019, 10:39 PM   #297
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This has zero spoilers, but since it's about a future season of Survivor, I'll put it in spoilers anyway:

Spoiler:
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Old 03-16-2019, 01:00 AM   #298
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

Wendy is weird, everything she says or does is retarded yet I still don't actually hate her.

Very strange.
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Old 03-16-2019, 01:25 AM   #299
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

I like Wendy. She's polarizing, but I think she's likeable in general if she's not driving you crazy.

She's obviously terrible at Survivor though, even aside from Chickengate. That said, she did have a legit hangup about killing the chickens, and almost didn't apply for the show solely due to that, but then instead hatched this "master plan".

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/am...lained-1194722

Victoria had a fierce tweet post-show Wed though:

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Old 03-16-2019, 01:40 AM   #300
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Re: Survivor S38: Edge of Extinction Main Thread

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Wendy is weird, everything she says or does is retarded yet I still don't actually hate her.

Very strange.
I think I hate her. The quirkiness is so overdone that it seems fake. She immediately badmouths her original tribe even though they seemed relatively nice and patient with her, considering how annoying she is. And the nonsense with the chickens (from a meat eater no less) reeks of a grab for camera time.
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