Come on, dude. You think with Cirie left at Final 5 AND Final 4, the rest don't take her out?

Oy

Pete has no idea what variance is guys. You are wasting your time.

I think it's reasonable to argue that Aubry is a good buffer/shield for Cirie at F5. Hard to see how Cirie gets past F4 though.

If Sarah is booted at F6, I think the threesome of Brad/Troy/Tai is >50% to be the F3.

It's such an absurd statement to say that she has zero win equity. If Terry beats Aras at the final 4 challenge then Cirie wins Panama. She also wins if she beats Danielle in the fire making challenge. She was robbed by production in Micronesia and she once again came super close to winning in the latest season. Cirie is for sure in my top 10 players and definitely number 1 for players to never win.

Probably the same way Sarah gets past F4. Brad wasn't thinking very logically for that last part of the game and his hubris plus desire for revenge against Tai would probably be enough to get Cirie to FTC.

I'm probably in the minority but imo Ozzy's challenge ability gives him significant win equity. I mean the dude was one vote away from winning Cook Islands and one challenge away from winning South Pacific. I think there's definitely seasons, e.g. World's Apart, in which the competition is so weak that Ozzy would be able to run the table.

Both Ozzy and Cirie had come incredibly close to winning twice before taking part in this season. Literally zero reason to make drastic adjustments given their past performances.

I didn't say she's always had 0 win equity, just 0 win equity this season (and in the future though I doubt she plays again) where everyone is completely familiar with her game.

http://www.is.fi/viihde/art-2000005240761.html

Ziigmund gonna be part of finnish edition of survivor, its held on philippines soon and gonna be aired one year from now. Also sara shafak (shark cage) is in, the cast is only finnish celebrities/sportstars/media persons. First prize is only 30k, and the production value obv. gonna be way worse but really looking forward for this xD

Yes. If you don't, then you're basing things on what you think should be done and how you would play, and not how the contestants were actually playing, and that is not good analysis.

The contestants were not targeting Cirie. She didn't have a vote against her the entire game. Brad and Troyzan had already targeted Aubry at F6, and everyone voted her out at F5. Aubry easily would have been targeted to vote out at F5 instead of Cirie. Then at F4, yes, Cirie should be voted out, just like Sarah should have been. But that is not reality. Brad and Troyzan easily would have still voted out Tai instead of Cirie.

This and this.

Still a stupid statement. She most definitely had significant win equity this season, as shown by being at F6 with zero votes ever cast against her, no one targeting her, and the above analysis showing her as likely to win, if Sarah doesn't have the legacy advantage.

She would also have win equity in future seasons, for the same reason she had win equity this season: although people are familiar with her game, it is a great game style that can win even if people are familiar with her. And if she ever got a favorable situation like Boston Rob in Redemption Island, she could easily dominate the game and win.

We'll just agree to disagree

boston rob won f4 immunity

thats why hes >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cirie

Patron filling this thread up with aids.

Again it's because Cirie has close to no equity in immunity challenges, so they can afford to wait on her. I'm not disagreeing with her in previous seasons, but saying Cirie makes FTC if Sarah didn't have the legacy advantage is pretty wishful thinking

You want it to be one way...

There's no evidence to support your claim that they were waiting on and planning on voting Cirie out. There is evidence that they were going to vote Sarah out, and then would have voted Aubry out, then Tai out.

Think strategy is overrated. The best strategic players seem mildly autistic and don't understand that their deep analysis of the game comes off as super threatening (ie they often lack social skill).

Challenge talents are clearly underrated. Pre-merge beasts are less likely to go to TC & when they do they're basically immune unless they're *******s everyone hates. Early post merge they're easy targets, but if they've forged good relationships (have social game) in the 1st half of the game they can survive & possibly Brad their way into FTC.

It's honestly a social game, beyond everything. The more I watch the more evident it is.

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Wouldn't that mean they don't really understand the correct strategy?

I'm watching Caramoan, and it's definitely cringe how Jeff just takes the liberty of changing the game, like saying this girl is looking at Reynold and in essence it's Jeff who tells everyone Reynold has a hidden immunity idol. For sure if Jeff was the host he's supposed to be and not influencing the game, we would have a different winner at a season or two.

Ya got me. If "strategy" here is synonymous with identifying social prowess as being of primary importance, then I guess I gotta admit that strategy is super duper important too.

S35 twist

S36 tho

S36:

bleh

dont like either of these

Less than three weeks to go to S35, having strange anxiety that the official thread isnt up and no S-S talk yet.

Now that I've had time to think about it, I really like the S35 twist.

what twist