Just a few first impressions... OMG, they cast an actual rooster this time. Is this Zane character from the same place as Big Tom. I think we might need some subtitles but I'm anticipating the funny. The engineer looks hot, I hope he's not a douche.

I guess I'm the only one who thinks Roxy is the most attractive of the females this season. I'm not a member of the fake boob brigade.

The percentage of the cast that is recruited is really becoming absurd, the fact that they even recruit contestants is pretty ridiculous in itself.

not thin enough...

yap

If he successfully manages to play a borderline--or heck, even completely--sociopathic game and does nothing but belittle the others and proclaim his superiority in the confessionals then he'll absolutely skyrocket up my all-time survivor rankings. But the fact that he said he wants to play this type of game probably indicates he doesn't have the tools necessary for it imo.

Sarah is a stone-cold lock to be a massive bitch. Not only is she drawing dead to be a winner but I'll be thoroughly shocked if she hasn't had a major(ish) confrontation with another survivor within the first 2.5 episodes (in or outside tribal council).

Katie though.

Never heard of Kent. Don't recognize him. Not a baseball fan.

Denise was my favorite female. I'm for not ******ed and she seems well ahead of the curve.

I agree Malcolm seems like he has some potential. + cute.

Mmmm, Skupin.

Roxy
Roxanne "Roxy" Morris
Age: 28
Brooklyn, N.Y.
Seminary Student

I'm with you, but I'm on record multiple times saying 'personality matters'.

That was Cardfish, but I concur. I've been meaning to tell you if you were interested in jail bait you should Google Paige Wyatt from American Guns. I think of you every time I see her on that show.

Oh please, if Grant showed up at your door with Leif's personality your pants would be on the floor before the doorbell rang.

Leif was sweet. Dumb and mean together is the deal breaker...exceptions might be made for one or the other.

(For the record, my pants only hit the floor for my husband...and Grant would probably run in the other direction if he saw my thighs.)

Just because you don't like fake boobs doesn't mean you can't like Angie's face, which is absolutely beautiful. I'm surprised Roxy is your favorite, though; I had my money on "gypsy" Dana.

"Jail bait" is such an ugly, taboo term. I prefer "young looking." And yes, I may have heard of Paige...

Katie is yummy! Really NOT looking forward to the religious garbage from the seminary student and the Facts of Life chick.

+1, don't get the Angie love all.
We just must have different taste in women cause I don't think her face is "absolutely beautiful". We also differ in how we feel about Parv/Andrea, so whatever. It's all good.

I'm cheering for the engineer AORN, but we'll see if that changes before the season starts as I find out a little more about the contestants.

Re: The Dalton Ross interviews...

Blair seems so unBlair. I like her.

OMG, they better give Jeff Kent some suncreen or there's going to be a problem. I don't see him being on board for any potential challenge throwing. Why is he whispering? There...Bonds, McGwyire, Sosa...I've heard of them.

Katie is self-proclaimed hot, smart, and athletic...sssShip it! You can't come off like you are dumb in the pageant world...mmmkay.

Zane is going to win because of divine intervention. He wants to be able to hold his head high when walking around in his hometown Wal-Mart. He takes a very hard stance against sprinkles.

Sarah seems bitchy.

Malcolm's look is putting me in the mind of Benry + Jason.

Blow up Barbie is self-proclaimed awesome. I'm noticing a theme with these pageant hos. Somebody check this kid's ID.

Artis hopes the specialist doesn't make a return and steal his thunder. edit: Ha, in the CBS interview, he makes a point of saying he does IT for the federal government. LOL

wtf is the deal with this foreign recruit, Abi-Maria?

RC coming over the top of Alina on socks and hair length. I glazed over during her hoop-rolling story...not sure how that made the edit which surely doesn't bode well.

Speaking of dumb as a bag of hammers...not liking rooster boy's chances.

Hey, a 15 year old boy to go with the 15 year old girl...wait a minute, he's wearing a bra.

Balls, I think the engineer grad might be a douche. I was hoping I could like him. He's cute.

Someone needs to let Denise know that she fits the profile for older lady with a brain that gets evicted early. She needs to at least take the overconfidence down a peg. And are those guns bigger than Dawns? How do these women do that?

Roxy communes with God. He has a purpose for her. She thinks a great purpose would be to win a million dollars. She feels a kinship with Matt--they have the same hair do. Her eyes seem a bit too far apart.

I don't get dudes who claim to not get why other dudes would be attracted to tan, thin girls with an above average facial composition and double Ds. It's not rocket science brah...

I don't like their chances: Artis, Dana, Carter, Survivor Barbie, Roxy, nonBlair, Dawson (might be some glimmer for her...if she ends up being more Sandra than Alicia), Abi-Maria (first out?), Jeff (he doesn't like lazy or stupid people...it's problem), Zane (I love this guy, tho)

Some glimmer of hope: RC (she seems to have some game knowledge but I doubt her ability to integrate with others), Engineer Pete (this kid didn't mention Heidik by name, but he channeled him a bit...I could also see rooster Matt in him though...not sure if he can keep his ego in check), Katie (ala Boatwright...I suspect ego problems with this one as well), Denise will probably shoot herself in the foot, but she looks good on paper (first out?)

My favorites: Malcolm, the returnees...not sure on Swan and these people are idiots if they let Skupin anywhere near the endgame

I could see how someone could find her attractive, sure. But posts like this:
seem a bit over the top, IMO.

From a game theory perspective, I have to say that I absolutely despise the idea of three tribes. You only need a rock-solid alliance of three to have power early on, and it makes the inevitable 3-into-2 merge a ridiculously high-variance crapshoot that is impossible to fully plan for since there are so many possible outcomes. Yes, the chaos makes for good TV, but what's good for TV is almost universally terrible for smart players.

Can't say I was too impressed either, but a few of them seem to have some potential.

Penner will be awesome as always; hopefully he can go deep. I'll be interested to see what Skupin can bring to the table.

'smart people' do not necessarily equal "smart [Survivor] players", and vice versa. If you're not sharp enough to realize that in a tribe of 6 you either need to consolidate a couple of allies quickly or stay out of the crosshairs of the majority alliance for a couple weeks, then you probably didn't have much of a chance to go deep in the game anyway (at least not on the merits of your gameplay).

Everyone goes into the game knowing there's going to be a merge and probably a tribe swap at some point. Smart players don't come in with a plan so rigid that even the slightest anticipated twist is just going to completely wreck their game. The smart players are the ones that are able to constantly adjust to changing climates within the game when necessary. Furthermore, show me empirical data that shows the 3-->2 merge produces more of a "high-variance crapshoot" than regular tribal swaps, which are a known and accepted part of the game. If you're going to argue anything, it would make more sense for you to say that you're opposed to pre-merge tribe alterations altogether.

ANGIE

Sure a good surivor player will have a better shot then the average player at coming out okay in a swap but there's no questioning swaps increase variance and a good player wants to reduce it.

You're missing my point. A two-tribe mix-up (like we saw last season) is comparatively easy to plan for because you're guaranteed to maintain a certain number of old tribemates. You can plan ahead by putting a certain number of allies on each side, or you can hope you get Kim's draw where all of your biggest allies are on the same side. Both options can be good. With three tribes, though, the alignment is basically impossible to plan for since there are so many possible combinations. Your early allies are almost forced to go away because those alliances get spread too thin, and you can't have any clue how many of them will survive to the "real" merge.

To use an extreme example: say you start with six tribes instead, and after getting from 18 players down to 16, you swap into four tribes of 4. You could be the most savvy social player ever, but if you get stuck on a tribe with two tight-knit people (think Pappy and Neleh) plus a random, how are you getting out of that one alive? Or even worse, what if you get stuck with an entire three-person ex-tribe that already had an alliance? With that small of a new tribe, your "table draw" becomes more important than anything else, and anyone ending up with old allies on their new tribe has a monstrous short-term advantage.

reading kos's response first

Before I read/address the rest, please explain to me how you're "guaranteed to maintain a certain number of old tribemates"?? In Marquesas, Sarah and Gina were the only 2 (out of 5) Maraamu that remained Maraamu. In All-Stars Amber was the only Chapera (out of 6) to remain a Chapera. In Vanuatu, it was 5 old:2 new vs. 4 old:2 new after the tribal swap. And didn't bother to check but other seasons probably have disproportionate numbers as well. What exactly prevented Kim and Kat from ending up with 5 guys while Monica, Christina, Alicia, Chelsea, and Sabrina were grouped with 2 guys?