from jay's exit interview

It's possible that Alicia thinks the women's alliance is her alliance since she was in on the ground floor. If not...she probably thinks she and Kat are close and she can capitalize on that relationship. If not...she might be savvy enough to realize that she would be an excellent goat for someone to take the end (I doubt this though because people aren't usually that self aware/critical.) None of this covers whatever Kim has been telling her--which I suspect is something. But there is surely enough plausible doubt that Alicia is not in a bad spot in Alicia's mind. If she even has an inkling that Sab and Kim are big endgame threats it stands to reason that she might be able to skate into the finals as a result of those two trying to get each other out.

These people have no idea what we are seeing. We have no idea what ALL is going on. We see what the editors tailor for us and have to fill in the rest based on how the players are interacting with each other and the profiles we construct in our heads about what motivates each individual.

Troy needs to win immunity for any flip to happen next episode. With the jury consisting of Jonas, Mike, and Jay so far and everyone pretty much getting on well with Troy for the preceding portion of the game, he is by far the biggest threat and should be treated as such unless some of the players just like him enough to help him win at their own expense.

I'm not clicking those spoilers and am not listening to the exit interview. I learned my lesson last week.

secret scenes:

Troyzan world: Troy pontificating on the reward. He has chunks of food in his teeth. He's full. The pineapple tastes much more intense than normal. Thanks, CBS, this one was useful.

that was his game (sab): Tarzan flipped that bola like he'd been doing it at the retirement home for years. Who would have thunk? "Whatever team you have, you just have to roll with it."

the guys are dumb (alicia): Alicia in complete agreement with the thread. "The guys are the most dumbest guys on this...{thinking}...planet earth. Why would you align with a bunch of girls? They could have had all 6 guys with me as their swing vote (who is the dumb one here?) and this would have never happened." Guys were not unified at the merge...yada yada...and now it's all backfiring on them. "Jay was like, I would be so blindsided if they took me out...I wanna be like, really? Really? You have to think about this? We just knocked out two guys and you think you're going to make it to the top? No, boo, you're not."

SS Jay: Kat is a rice nazi. I'm pretty sure she's cooking the rice so that she can have more than anyone else. I don't want to call her out and get anyone pissed off at me.

no food worth a million (Sab): I felt pretty safe and I hadn't had anything to eat, so I was a sucker and went out the first possible chance. We just didn't want Troy to win. Getting Troy out was the key. The girls went out one by one, Chelsea was a soldier and hung in there. Planning to split the vote 6 for Troy and 3 for Jay. If Sab was Jay, she would not have stepped down when he did (Sab is like us, making these routine decisions when she knows what is going to happen based on information that she holds but Jay did not.) "He literally took the chicken wings over a million dollars, but I'm sorry, no food is worth a million dollars (she left unsaid that chicken wings would be close--I'm not that fond of chicken wings...just ban me now)."

my first reward (tarZAN): The man can't call the waters blue. They have to be azure. Newsflash: he's enjoying the experience. Doesn't seem that stressed about winning or not.

my savage color (tardzan): omg, I can see his boobs in that dress. It's a chinese trap sort of dress. Now that he figured out how to get in it, he's going to enjoy it. He still feels like a masculine man in it. It makes some of his loose skin tighter. It's his best color. His warrior color.

jay the day after: Jay looking so pretty...and sounding so cartoony {sigh}. Terrible. Shocked about how much you learn about yourself, and life in general, and other people in 25 short days...so it was a blessing the whole way through. He thought about home a lot and relationships and so forth...experience made him appreciate family and friends more. He needs to slow down and appreciate what he has at home. I tried to play a nice honest game, but I tried to be conniving too. I'm hoping they see me as a strong competitor. I don't know how they are going to view me stepping down for food. (Worried about seeming like a fool.) He trusted in his alliance at the time, and he didn't realize that Troy was going to play an idol. He had fun and gave it his all. He wouldn't change a thing. Dealing with all the personalities was the most difficult thing. Way harder than going without food. It's taught him to have an open mind toward people. It's made him appreciate family, food, and life in general.

I'm so abrasive (tarzan): He admits that there are about two girls that just hate his guts at this point. He's kind of"...rude...I guess they perceive it as rude...I don't...but in this environment one could call 'rude'. I'm sorry. I like to be frank. And say it. And mean what I say..." Girls are going to try to take out Troyzan or Jaybird before it's too late. They might take out me just because they hate me. But if they are smart, they will go for Troyzan or Jaybird before me. (Troy and Jay are dominant mentally and physically to women...obviously.)

the impact of voting out Mike (chelsea): After we got Mike out, we put ourselves in position to get rid of the guys. It's definitely going to hurt because we've made some close relationships with the guys, and there are some girls that I wouldn't want to sit with in the end, so there's going to be a lot of strategic play from here on in. (How do you people not lambaste Chelsea's thinking moreso than the people who's cases you get on? Pick on Christina--who couldn't make a move if she wanted to.) Aura around camp changes when someone gets voted out. People are having to do more around camp to make up for loss of Jay.

i know how she feels (kim): And we were explaining to Chelsea in the nicest way possible that Jay or Troy could go on an immunity run, and we have to get rid of them while we can. It doesn't really concern me that Chelsea's conscience is getting the best of her because I feel the exact same way, but to me it's the difference of...letting that help me make my decisions, or drawing the line and saying this is the game. I'm here to play for a million dollars, and of course this sucks because I told this person they could stay, but they obviously can't. ...It's not as easy to keep is as separate as I thought it would be, so I understand how she feels." She thinks Chelsea will come around once Troy and Jay go because they have a great connection with them and those two are fun to have around. Kim doesn't think Chelsea will have any particular attachment to anyone but herself after Jay and Troy are gone...and she hopes she let's her stay {chuckle}.

good for tarzan, bad for us(leif): He thought his team had it in the bag, but his team choked. It was Tarzan's game. He felt good for him. Tarzan has really been losing a lot of weight, so Leif felt good for him getting to go eat some food. Leif super stoked for Tarzan. Went on for about 2 minutes about it. And about how much of a shocker it was that he and some wimins couldn't beat the other team.

i feel that confident (leif): Leif's short stature and short arms allows him to get the blood flow to all his extremities. A lot of people didn't know they could hold their arm up. Leif being a phlebotomist gave him the edge in the challenge because he was really severely pumping his hand. He had it. He easily could have stayed. But Chelsea and him were talking and she really wanted to win it. He knows that she will have his back and whatever alliance she has will have his back. He completely takes her word and he is right now wearing invisible immunity.

glad they didn't win (Kat): She goofed out and dropped her hand so that she could have some cupcakes, but she is paying for it now because her stomach is not happy. Everybody shared in the end. It was important for Jay and Troy to not win immunity. Didn't matter who won as long as it wasn't them.

coconut crab bisque (sab): Sab risking a rash to eat some crab. Jealous about the reward winners. Jonas left his bisque recipe behind.

cat fight is coming (christina): The alliance that I have with the girls is still very tight. I keep it ambiguous because I don't want the guys to know that it's going to be..you know, six girls and eliminate all the guys one by one. I still kind of play the card that I'm a lone ranger and I'm on my own so that I can get some sympathy from TRoy and Jay. THose two are going to be two top players that are going to be hard to beat. I think it's better to play against 6 girls than those 2 guys. I'm still playing it like I don't know what's going on and I don't know what's happening to them. "AFter they are all gone it's going to be a good ol' Survivor cat fight...may the best bitch win."

can't be too comfortable (christina): Day 23 it's getting a little rough. Muscles are worn out. Food scarce. She still wants to win and play as hard as she can. (Clearly not aware that she is getting NO screen time.) If she does go all the way to the final four she has to know what she has said to people in the past because those people are going to decide who wins. Should she keep one alliance or have another one on the side. ??? (Apparently, she has an alliance???)

a threat you can trust (jay): He didn't expect to do well in the challenge. His formerly broken collarbone and wrist gives him some trouble on that side...he thinks he could have hung in there with Chelsea, but he wanted some food. He trusts his two girls. He's a big threat, but he's a big threat who can be trusted by two people that want to go to the end. We'll see if my chicken wings were worth a million bucks tonight.

All the whining about an inevitable pagonging seems odd to me. At least wait until everyone is pagonged before you start bitching about it.

I gotta disagree here. For Christina and Alicia to win it needs to be them plus Tarzan at the end. If Alicia continues with this girl alliance how will she win? I don't think she can beat Kat.

The longer Kim, Chelsea, Sabrina, and Kat control the game the worse it gets for Christina, Alicia, Leif, and Tarzan. That second group of four needs to use Troyzan by the next vote or its over.

Troy and Jay are huge threats in immunities and at the FTC, but that doesn't mean you blindly vote them out. Use them as swing votes to secure your own position first, then get them.

One other thing I read and completely agree with.

Chelsea = the female version of Chase from Nicaragua

You think it's not going to happen?

Lol...I was wondering what that shirt was that Tarzan was wearing.

Guess its better than his usual banana hammock.

Whether she is or not, I don't know, but Alicia thinks she is buddies with Kat so she probably isn't viewing the Kim, Chelsea, Sabrina, Kat alliance as closed to her. Who knows what Kim has said to her (other than that the guy's picked her to vote out, but that she need not worry because she's safe--they DID show that conversation). Christina's secret scene has her thinking she is in a tight girl alliance and might be able to be in more than one alliance. These people do not have all the information that you have. A lot of why we think the way we do about final three probabilities and so forth is because of the editing. An invisible Christina doesn't make for a likely FTC player. Christina doesn't know she has been invisible. We think Alicia is drawing dead because we think the editors would somehow have found a way to make her not seem scummy (LOL) if she won. Alicia probably doesn't think Alicia is drawing dead.

Everyone thinks they have a better chance at beating girls. And they are probably right.

edit: Wasn't there a scene a while back where Kim and Chelsea agreed they were in a tight alliance, but that they needed to not be seen obviously buddying around with specifically each other? What if they have pulled that illusion off for the most part?

No, I don't think the guys are going to get pagonged. The girls will win this game and probably comprise the entire F4, but I don't expect the guys to be the next three boots.

this look like she has a bionic arm with a gatling gun attached to it.

at least that what it looked like upon a cursory glance. if i had any photoshop skills i'd edit it

I couldn't agree with this more. We may think Chelsea/Kim/Sab/Kat is the obvious F4 alliance, but we really don't know how it playing out on the island. We see 1 hour for every 3 days on island, there's tons there's leaving out, and it would surprise me if the girls weren't doing a great job of making Alicia feel like she's on the level.

Lief, Kat, Christina, Alicia and Tarzan don't have a strategic brain cell combined. Should make for a pretty boring rest of the season. Could have easily been different though, especially with Jeff tapping the glass constantly at immunity challenge and tribal. I feel like he has been more and more aggressive with helping the noobs figure out their place on the totem pole. Each season seems to get more obvious.

What's being overlooked in that discussion is that, even if Alicia has a reserved seat at FTC with the women (and has good reason to believe this), her best move is still to try to make something happen at F9, or F7 if Tarzan is safe until then and she can get Kat to flip. Her only out to win is taking Tarzan and Christina to FTC, and this becomes less and less feasible as time goes on. Of course, if Alicia had enough self-awareness to realize this, she probably wouldn't be the ideal goat in the first place, but the point still stands.

Absolutely. Rememember, these five formed an alliance in the first hours of the season. So far, it has held strong and Alicia has no reason to doubt it. We don't know what the dynamics are within the alliance, and they really haven't been pertinent before now. We've seen Kim and Sab have a final three discussion, as well as Kim and Chelsea. For all we know she's had the same discussion with both Kat and Alicia. We'll find out a lot more over the next couple of episodes.

Jay at Ponderosa:

"That's what happens when you trust women." It was the first time he had left his bag at camp. I get to watch from the sidelines with the rest of the guys. Watch these girls pick 'em off.

Jay lost 30 lbs.

Dr. Liza is giving him survivor tips in the car ride. "That's what happens a lot at this point in the game. They get out the threatening guy who is going to win a lot of immunities." Jay is hoping that Chelsea and Kim didn't vote for him. He'd feel a little better about his discernment on who to trust. Mike is saying Troy is next, then Leif. Mike and Jay are commiserating on getting blindsided. Mike asked if Jay voted him out. Jay said, yeah. Mike says he's glad Jay is at Ponderosa because he's one of his favorite guys out here.

Mike: You voted me out, punk.
Jay: There was no hope for you. They were gunning for you. Troy was gunning for you.
Mike: Troy wasn't calling the shots though.

I think I like Jay better with the beard. He's too pretty without. Mmmm, bacon. Mike has gained back over ten lbs. Jay, Jonas, and Mike are getting along well. Jay says it's like hanging with your boys back home. Michael says they need some women to join them.

As they are boarding the van to go to TC, Michael catches Jay checking himself out in the windows and says, "Oh, you look pretty."

^ who is that?

looks like Jay and Alicia

These are some good points, you've convinced me with Alicia. But I simply can't agree with Christina. The women's majority alliance on original Salani was talked about at the second tribal council and she wasn't part of it. It's a mistake for her to think she's in with them now.

What can you not agree with me about on Christina? That there has been no evidence of her having any allies that she can count on? That her most likely function is as a tool lying around the woodshop waiting for someone with some skill to come along and use?

What is she supposed to do? If I had to guess, and I do because I'm finding it difficult to even remember Christina being shown interacting with anyone since the episode that Colton got evac'ed, I'd bet that the women have touched base with Christina more so than the men since the merge. The men have been all over the frickin place since the merge. Shocker, what with Tarzan, Leif, and Troyzan in the mix. Speaking of Tarzan, I think the last time I remember anyone interacting with Christina was Tarzan telling her he didn't like her and he wouldn't be her friend. That's pretty welcoming. Christina should definitely approach him about an alliance. I'm sure he wouldn't tell anyone and get her targeted instead of himself. ...Wait, did I say sure?

I don't disagree that Christina should feel great about her position in the women's alliance. But her position is bad in general. She's in a bad spot with the women, and the alternative is some kooky men who are outnumbered and have shown no power or ability to gather and do anything for themselves in the game. What is she supposed to do? And especially what is she supposed to do when she may be deluding herself into thinking she's a valuable member of an alliance?

Ponderosa tidbit:

I probably should have mentioned Jay telling Mike and Jonas that Troyzan came to him ten minutes before tribal council saying he had an idol and was going to play it and trying to get Jay to vote against Kim even though he did not have the votes to get her out.

This is what the men are dealing with. And Tarzan. And Leif might be very loyal, but no guarantee he won't out some plan in a fit of uncontrollable honesty. Not that anyone has a chance to plan anything with these numbskulls.

disappointing, i liked jay and troyzan despite the men performing poorly

You can't just let things come to you, and it doesn't matter how welcoming or nice they are to you. Survivor is like a poker tournament, when you're in a bad position you need to get more aggressive. Try to form new alliances, stir things up..

Does anyone what is happening with the sheep answers?