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Old 10-29-2010, 05:16 AM   #2276
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Because if you're up 5-4, there's zero incentive for any of the five to flip for the next two votes. If you're up 6-3, there's more incentive for the bottom two in the 6 to jump. 6-3 isn't bad, but 7-2 is a disaster waiting to happen, and 8-1 is...well, it's not even an alliance anymore.

This season will probably sum it up well, as the kids + Holly + Jane is way too many people. The key to a successful alliance is always maintaining the bare minimum of votes needed for a majority, so they don't "need" Jane, and her voting with them really isn't helpful to them at all. Now, the idol obviously complicates this in a major way, but in general, you want to keep a slim advantage at all times imo.
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Old 10-29-2010, 12:41 PM   #2277
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Nucleon View Post
How can this be true when Brenda knows full well that Na has the idol???
Mulltiple voters cited their vote was in case Jill had an idol, or Marty had another idol and gave it to Jill, etc. Possible explainations?

Unless Brenda has told somebody besides Chase and it hasn't been shown, only she, Naonka, and Chase know that Na has the other idol. If someone brought up, what if Jill has an idol? She may well have kept tight lipped about that not being possible. OR they think being cautious was prudent. Not knowing if there were more than two idols in play and thinking it was wildly too good to be true that Marty just handed over his idol. If you watch the TC vote secret scene, more than one person cited a possible idol as the reason for the split voting.
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Old 10-29-2010, 01:58 PM   #2278
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Because if you're up 5-4, there's zero incentive for any of the five to flip for the next two votes. If you're up 6-3, there's more incentive for the bottom two in the 6 to jump. 6-3 isn't bad, but 7-2 is a disaster waiting to happen, and 8-1 is...well, it's not even an alliance anymore.

This season will probably sum it up well, as the kids + Holly + Jane is way too many people. The key to a successful alliance is always maintaining the bare minimum of votes needed for a majority, so they don't "need" Jane, and her voting with them really isn't helpful to them at all. Now, the idol obviously complicates this in a major way, but in general, you want to keep a slim advantage at all times imo.
KOS, I respect you. But I feel your analysis is often a little too on the robotic side. You are mostly spot on...in theory. But I don't feel like you properly account for the personell at times. You are generally right IF players are always going to do what is best for themselves. But there are two major problems with the big if. Sometimes (often?) players have no idea what is best for themselves (Fabio?/Alina?). And sometimes they don't have a huge interest in doing what is best for themselves (Invisible Kelly?/Dan?). I probably wouldn't mind being in a larger than ideal alliance if there were several clueless/careless players in it and the other ones were primarily loyal to ME. I'd feel like I had all kinds of options. Yeah, the thing is going to break up, but I may feel confident I can control the split in my favor and possibly even have an option A, B, and C which are all viable.

Also, I'll add a third issue and that is that sometimes players may be aware what is best for themselves and have a desire to do what is best for themselves, but have very little power to impact their own situation. Am I remembering correctly that Eliza was a sitting duck because she could not muster any support for herself? It seems like I remember her knowing she was in trouble and attempting to scramble, but not being able to get anything accomplished because her only ally thought a crudely sharpened stick might be an immunity idol.

I think if I have a better idea what is going on in the tribe than the average bear and I also have the most close ties with people (feel I can trust and control them) I'm fine with being in the majority--even if it's large. And if I'm not persuasive at all, I certainly don't want to be in the minority. And if I don't have any friends, I don't want to be in the minority. And if I am clearly the #1 challenge threat, I'd always feel like my days were numbered but I certainly don't want to be in the minority. I just don't think the strategy of trying to keep things even and be the flipper applies for everyone.
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Old 10-29-2010, 02:29 PM   #2279
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Soncy View Post
Mulltiple voters cited their vote was in case Jill had an idol, or Marty had another idol and gave it to Jill, etc. Possible explainations?

Unless Brenda has told somebody besides Chase and it hasn't been shown, only she, Naonka, and Chase know that Na has the other idol. If someone brought up, what if Jill has an idol? She may well have kept tight lipped about that not being possible. OR they think being cautious was prudent. Not knowing if there were more than two idols in play and thinking it was wildly too good to be true that Marty just handed over his idol. If you watch the TC vote secret scene, more than one person cited a possible idol as the reason for the split voting.
Reasonable points about there being another idol. Though I would say now that it is pretty positive that Sash, and Brenda have never followed Survivor prior to being on this season if they actually do believe this.

I do like your theory about Brenda playing along with the idea with her other teammates that there is another idol out there to not let out the knowledge of Na having her own hidden immunity idol that can be used to get rid of her allies, or enemies in the game.
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Old 10-29-2010, 02:45 PM   #2280
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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KOS, I respect you. But I feel your analysis is often a little too on the robotic side. You are mostly spot on...in theory. But I don't feel like you properly account for the personell at times. You are generally right IF players are always going to do what is best for themselves. But there are two major problems with the big if. Sometimes (often?) players have no idea what is best for themselves (Fabio?/Alina?). And sometimes they don't have a huge interest in doing what is best for themselves (Invisible Kelly?/Dan?). I probably wouldn't mind being in a larger than ideal alliance if there were several clueless/careless players in it and the other ones were primarily loyal to ME. I'd feel like I had all kinds of options. Yeah, the thing is going to break up, but I may feel confident I can control the split in my favor and possibly even have an option A, B, and C which are all viable.

Also, I'll add a third issue and that is that sometimes players may be aware what is best for themselves and have a desire to do what is best for themselves, but have very little power to impact their own situation. Am I remembering correctly that Eliza was a sitting duck because she could not muster any support for herself? It seems like I remember her knowing she was in trouble and attempting to scramble, but not being able to get anything accomplished because her only ally thought a crudely sharpened stick might be an immunity idol.
Well yes, what I said assumes people are playing somewhat rationally. However, even the dumbest of players understands this point on its most basic level: when you're at the bottom of the pecking order, you have to flip. Maybe they don't all do it right away (or wait too long to do it), but they all understand it. Mick and Jaison in Samoa understood this, and that's why Russell wore his idol at F7...but they weren't smart enough to flip. They did, however, at least consider it.

When you say you can "split it in your favor," you're making the same point I am. If you have an alliance, and there's a smaller sub-alliance in it, you've already "split" without realizing it. Again, there's a huge difference between being aligned with someone (i.e. you want to continue playing with them) and merely voting with them. Ideally, everyone would vote with you, but you don't want to be aligned with/loyal to all of them.

So glad you brought up Eliza, which is a great example. Eliza was a sitting duck because there were ten people left, and she was down 8-2. There was no reason for any of the 8 to jump ship because they need 6 votes to do it and only 5 at the next vote. Sure enough, at the next TC, they used Jason (Eliza's surviving ally, who was down 8-1) to boot Ozzy. Then, when they didn't need Jason anymore, they booted him at the very next TC. Perfectly executed by the girls: use the free vote to make a big move, then boot him before he can flip again.
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Old 10-29-2010, 03:08 PM   #2281
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by SavageTilt View Post
My thoughts:

re. splitting the votes: on closer reflection, vyk's solution doesn't work . If you're in a 6-2 majority facing an idol + individual immunity, it makes sense to split the votes 4-2 rather than 3-3. This prevents the pair from doing what vyk suggested: they now have to put both their votes on one person and hope, rather than getting two chances to get it right. It also means that the idol has to be used, since otherwise a tie is forced and the idol-holder is eliminated on the revote (if you're competent ldo)
Why is this in a spoiler tag, lol?

On the bolded/underlined segment of your thoughts:
1) You are presenting a counter-argument with an alternate hypothetical solution to a proposed hypothetical solution of escaping a 3-3 split without using the idol. (im not going to dig through the last 20 pages to find everything)
2) You are talking about voting strategy from last week's episode, the day after the newest episode, which is fresh in voting strategy discussion potential itself
3) To address your hypothetical-based counter-argument of my hypothetical voting strategy solution, which suggests voting 4 on marty and 2 on the goat (KellyB): It doesn't address the big issue at the time, which is Fabio loyalty and potential ability to flip (allowing Jill/Marty to take a free shot at someone like Brenda with the use of the idol), and it doesn't include the fact that the majority alliance obviously places precedent on the goat (KellyB) leaving before Marty, as is evidenced by the re-vote.

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Old 10-29-2010, 04:28 PM   #2282
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

People were complaining about long posts, I thought using a spoiler tag would condense it. Apparently not.

Quick response:
2): Am I supposed to not mention something I find interesting because it occurred a week ago? This thread still goes on random tangents discussing stupid decisions back in HvV and other seasons. I can see how people might think I was suggesting a strategy for this week, but I went into that separately in the same post, so I'm not sure what the problem is.

3): If anyone's flipped they can get Brenda out anyway, so she has little reason to care. There are ways to get around one person flipping, but the fact that she split the vote 3-3 and stuck to it shows that she wasn't worried about that possibility. If she's going to assume that no-one will flip, she may as well pursue the course of action that lessens the chance of Marty being able to stay in the game with the idol.

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Old 10-29-2010, 05:11 PM   #2283
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by SavageTilt View Post
People were complaining about long posts, I thought using a spoiler tag would condense it. Apparently not.

Quick response:
2): Am I supposed to not mention something I find interesting because it occurred a week ago? This thread still goes on random tangents discussing stupid decisions back in HvV and other seasons. I can see how people might think I was suggesting a strategy for this week, but I went into that separately in the same post, so I'm not sure what the problem is.

3): If anyone's flipped they can get Brenda out anyway, so she has little reason to care. There are ways to get around one person flipping, but the fact that she split the vote 3-3 and stuck to it shows that she wasn't worried about that possibility. If she's going to assume that no-one will flip, she may as well pursue the course of action that lessens the chance of Marty being able to stay in the game with the idol.

I am just making light and poking fun at the fact that you called my hypothetical voting strategy solution of last episode basically ineffective, based on your hypothetical counter-strategy of voting 4-2 instead of 3-3

To give you a football example: It's as if I suggested the proper defensive adjustment to counter screen plays which are torching the defense, is to drop defensive ends in coverage, spread the field horizontally with your linebackers, and to sneak up the safeties into closer coverage; and you argued "what if" the offense decided to run up the middle on that play instead and thus gain more yardage on average than usual.

I mean, yea of course, football is a game of adjustments, and a strategy that would counter the screen would weaken the run D/pass rush.

If you still don't understand why your hypothetical counter argument that is basically "if they vote differently, than your original voting solution which is intended to counter a 3-3 anticipated voting split, is ineffective", doesn't really make any sense logically, than I present you with this stare complementary of Samuel L. Jackson.

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Old 10-29-2010, 06:03 PM   #2284
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

It's a good strategy for Marty/Jill if they anticipate a 3/3 split. My point is that that assumes that Brendash will pursue a suboptimal strategy, and so that it's only effective if you don't credit your opponents with the capacity for rational thought. 3-3 splits ARE standard, but that doesn't mean they should be. Marty and Jill could probably have fairly assumed a 3/3 split though, I wouldn't have faulted them for following your strategy.

My frustration at having no clue what your American football example means merits Corinne:
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Old 10-29-2010, 06:31 PM   #2285
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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My frustration at having no clue what your American football example means merits Corinne:
Everything merits Corinne. <3
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Old 10-29-2010, 06:34 PM   #2286
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Thumbs up 3rd Power Rankings!!

This Weeks Power Rankings. For the first time there has been a tie. Sash and Chase both tied for 3rd. So I by each ranking, Sash was rated higher on 3 of the 5 voters rankings. So the name of the person, total points this week, and in "()" last weeks ranking:

1. Brenda 49 (LW: 3rd)

I had to demote Sash because of his slip at TC. I believe Brenda still has good ties with Sash, Jane, Chase, and Naonka. As well as her group having some key minions. (Soncy)

2. Benry 43 (LW: 2nd)

Benry's here, baby! If he's smart, he'll lead a revolt at F11, oust Sash and Brenda, and run this thing. I will be shocked if he, Brenda, and Sash are all still around after the F9 vote. (Kos13)

3. Sash 40 (LW: 1st)

If Sash doesn't get blindsided next week he's a lock to go deep. Brenda remains the biggest target, and Sash seems to get on well with everybody in the game. (Savage Tilt)

4. Chase 40 (LW: 5th)

sympathetic, athletic, and UTR in the majority alliance whose power players have huge targets on their back (vyk07)

5. Marty 10 (LW: 4th)

Somehow, someway he is still in this game. He should of been voted out in two spots but since the merge is coming and a lot of leaks among all alliances, Marty is still a threat to win. (Cash Mahne)

Tie Breaker:

Voters who had Chase higher than Sash: vyk07, Cash Mahne
Voters who had Sash higher than Chase: Kos13, Soncy, Savage Tilt

Others Receiving Votes: Jane 7, Holly 3, Kelly 3
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Old 10-29-2010, 06:53 PM   #2287
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

lol, Benry's here, baby!

Last edited by boc4life; 10-29-2010 at 06:53 PM. Reason: Kos loves alpha males!
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Old 10-29-2010, 07:07 PM   #2288
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I like how it seems that there is a solid 4 for everyone. I mean the gap from 4 to 1 is only 9 points and Marty had 10 points for 5th. I think next week could be epic on I have no idea who will be the front runner anymore
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Old 10-29-2010, 07:14 PM   #2289
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

this field is reallly bad. i dont really have anyone to root for. i think at this point i am rooting for a fabio, marty, sash alliance to make it to the final 3.
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Old 10-29-2010, 07:26 PM   #2290
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

What does everyone think the worst case scenario F3 would be?

-Dan/Holly/Jane?
-KP, NaOnka, Brenda?
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Old 10-29-2010, 07:30 PM   #2291
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Holly is a goddess and the fact that she got only 3 points in the power rankings is laughable
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Old 10-29-2010, 07:58 PM   #2292
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Holly is a goddess and the fact that she got only 3 points in the power rankings is laughable
yea that was my 5th place wild card 3 points



I just noticed: how the hell did purple kelly get votes to win the game???
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Old 10-29-2010, 08:00 PM   #2293
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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yea that was my 5th place wild card 3 points



I just noticed: how the hell did purple kelly get votes to win the game???
shes like natalie 2.0
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Old 10-29-2010, 08:08 PM   #2294
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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shes like natalie 2.0


Not only did she just finally get her 1st confession in episode 7, but her fine ass has been noticeably absent from each episode

edit: she does have Natalie's mold, but she is severely lacking her presence

Last edited by vyk07; 10-29-2010 at 08:14 PM.
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Old 10-29-2010, 08:32 PM   #2295
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I put Holly in 4th and Kelly in 5th (so Holly should have more than 3 points surely?). Kelly's in a very good position to win (hence her being on the list) but her invisibility and general lack of intelligence mean she won't actually do so.
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Old 10-29-2010, 08:36 PM   #2296
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

you get to milk yer own milk
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Old 10-29-2010, 09:10 PM   #2297
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Holly is a goddess and the fact that she got only 3 points in the power rankings is laughable
Things I like about Holly: She is lurking with a little purpose. I mean, I think she has given her position some thought and will continue to give it some thought. She has also shown a willingness to seek out and solidify new allies. She drowned Dan's alligator shoes and now seems to be in okay standing with him...nice recovery. I do not think she will be seen as a threat any time soon. And by any time soon, I mean, ever.

Reasons why I haven't shown her any love in my rankings: I don't know how she gets there and once there, if she can beat her opponents. I don't see her getting there by herself. Somebody is going to have to tote her. Who is that? Can she beat him/her? I believe a Jane or Holly could win, but I've elected to go with Jane since she is at least ensconced with the powerful people at the moment--I can see Jane getting toted for a while and possibly being able to beat the people she is with because of some spite voting, or possibly flipping on her benefactors. To be fair, I probably could have stuck Holly in Benry or Chase's spot because they are surely walking dead. I just feel that they are at least in more control of their own destiny. She's on my radar, but I'm waiting for more information.
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Old 10-29-2010, 09:18 PM   #2298
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I like Judd as #5 on power rankings over Marty who deserves no praise so far.
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Old 10-29-2010, 10:18 PM   #2299
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I feel like Marty is on the verge of drawing dead
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Old 10-30-2010, 02:43 AM   #2300
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I feel like Marty is on the verge of drawing dead
Let's not go nuts.
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