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Old 10-27-2010, 11:37 PM   #2201
Soncy
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by cash mahne View Post
What do you guys think of Dan going super deep? He is never going to win a challenge and if he trusts you he will never betray you. Seems like the perfect guy to take with you in hopes the jury sees he doesn't need the money and barley played the game.
Dan final three. Cash mahne called it. Oh wait that would require good strategy by somebody. Nevermind.

Edit: son of a... Hemstock beat me to it.
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Old 10-27-2010, 11:39 PM   #2202
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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How do you know that Chase and Nay are still with Sash and Brenda?

I think it is going to be a cluster **** for the most part and that would help out Benry a lot.
How do you know they aren't? Last I knew they were. I have no reason to think otherwise. Until I do, burden of proof is on Benry to show me that he's in a better position than Chase.
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Old 10-27-2010, 11:42 PM   #2203
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Possible Naonka's antics drive Fabio to flip?
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Old 10-27-2010, 11:43 PM   #2204
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Zimmer4141 View Post
Also can we please stop talking about editing?

Does it really make you feel smart to point out somebody got a facial expression shown so it's likely they're going home? If you want to fish through all of the editing and study it that's fine, but don't ruin it for people that don't pay attention to editing.

It's really annoying me for some reason.
omg, this.
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Old 10-27-2010, 11:46 PM   #2205
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Dan final three. Cash mahne called it. Oh wait that would require good strategy by somebody. Nevermind.

Edit: son of a... Hemstock beat me to it.
Maybe there is just way to much leveling going on? I can say I honestly don't want to see any one from this season play again as of know, except Shannon.
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Old 10-27-2010, 11:47 PM   #2206
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I'm sure I'm going to get a lot of crap for saying this, but I think it's possible that NaOnka is playing the best game right now. I don't think she is showing anyone the NaOnka we are seeing in confessionals.
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Old 10-27-2010, 11:54 PM   #2207
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Everything is up in the air again with the merge next week. I'd like some input before I make my power ranking list.

Who is controlling Dan? Chase or Ben? Will Dan gather/share any information with Marty? Is Marty even competent enough to use information to his benefit?

Who is controlling Holly? Naonka or Alina? Were Holly and Jane on good enough terms that Jane might pull Holly into her group? ...Could they snag Dan as well?

Will the things to come be largely decided on who controls the votes of these non-threats?

For those who think Benry is in such a good spot, who are his main allies and why does this phantom group have so much power?

Appreciate any input.
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Old 10-27-2010, 11:55 PM   #2208
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I'm sure I'm going to get a lot of crap for saying this, but I think it's possible that NaOnka is playing the best game right now. I don't think she is showing anyone the NaOnka we are seeing in confessionals.
its possible, but only because everyone else is totally incompetent
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Old 10-27-2010, 11:56 PM   #2209
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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its possible, but only because everyone else is totally incompetent
Yeah, that's what I meant.
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Old 10-27-2010, 11:56 PM   #2210
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I'm sure I'm going to get a lot of crap for saying this, but I think it's possible that NaOnka is playing the best game right now. I don't think she is showing anyone the NaOnka we are seeing in confessionals.
You mean besides Fabio and Kelly B. I think they knew.
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Old 10-28-2010, 12:04 AM   #2211
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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You mean besides Fabio and Kelly B. I think they knew.
In NaOnka's defense Kelly B. only had 1 leg. No one wants someone like that around.
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Old 10-28-2010, 12:04 AM   #2212
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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See, I don't get this. Fabio is not an ugly guy, but I find him pretty unattractive. Dumb is a deal breaker.
There's a difference between "not ugly" and Purple Kelly. It's different for girls, I guess, but you're telling me a dumb Brad Pitt becomes "pretty unattractive" to you?

Don't get me wrong; Purple Kelly would drive me insane because she's completely brain-dead and immature, but she's still extremely attractive physically. There's a difference between being hot and being girlfriendable, and I think you can guess which category she falls into for anyone over the age of about 16.

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You guys are drunk. How is Benry not going to be percieved as such a huge IIC threat that he is targeted as soon as possible post merge? And both HIIs are tied up so he can't use those save himself.

I'm pretty sure he is currently in charge of nothing.

He will be seen as a huge threat for the rest of the game. Both because of challenges and because he seems to be well liked.

He could organize a resistance (with the help of Marty) against the Brenda/Chase, Sash, Naonka alliance, but I'm going to have to see that happen before I feel inclined to jump on his wagon because he has a lot going against him.

Wait a minute. Nevermind. Obviously, I am no judge of who people are going to see as a threat based on La Flor's last two votes. Carry on.
Well, there HAS TO BE two groups. At some point, there just has to be, so you have to look at who might be in each one. The Minority Alliance of Brenda, Sash, NaOnka, Chase, and Purple Kelly appears to be pretty tight. The subgroup there is, well, everyone else but Dan and Marty, and they're the free votes (i.e. they can't build their own alliance without help from the subgroup). So for me, the only people who can be Leaders of the Subgroup would be Benry and Alina, and I don't think Alina is aggressive enough to do it. That leaves Benry, who really fits the role perfectly. He's not loyal to anyone, he's a bit of a douche (this actually helps make a better backstabber imo), and he's not ******ed.

I probably go about my power rankings a bit differently than some. For me, it's: if I could trade places with anyone, who would it be? Now, I tend to actually prefer to be in the subgroup/the group that's not currently in charge, as no one ever blames you for overthrowing the main alliance, and you get credit for a "big move" when it's really just common sense. So yeah, I'd happily swap with Benry over anyone else right now, try to boot Marty at F12, and have my subgroup (me, Alina, Jud, Jane, Holly, and Dan) take over at F11. If the old ladies are too attached or too stupid, I wait until F9, etc.

EDIT: Actually, I would probably keep Marty around simply because the old ladies are too stupid to revolt that early. Marty would obviously be way more open to it, so I'd be trying hard to keep him and Dan safe at the next vote.

Now, I liked Sash's position better coming into tonight because he has such an easy path with his alliance + Holly/Jane/whoever as the sixth vote, but that slip-up tonight really is huge to me. It's the type of thing that will make people question their alliance with you, even if they shouldn't. To me, it bumps him behind Brenda as the #1 player in the alliance, and both of them being weakened bumps Benry ahead of them. Now, Benry almost certainly has a higher chance of being blindsided at F11 than both Brenda and Sash combined, but I do prefer to play from behind in Survivor, and if he gains control, I think he has less of a chance of getting blindsided later in the game.

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Originally Posted by cash mahne View Post
What do you guys think of Dan going super deep? He is never going to win a challenge and if he trusts you he will never betray you. Seems like the perfect guy to take with you in hopes the jury sees he doesn't need the money and barley played the game.
Agreed. I'd be surprised if he's not in the F4, and I'd be even more surprised if he is booted with an odd number of players left. But as Soncy said, the fact that this is such a no-brainer means he'll probably go next. These kids are duuuuumb.
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Old 10-28-2010, 12:13 AM   #2213
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Once again a episode full of stupid moves by the same exact people as last week.

I figured the crack in Brenda, Sash, Na, and others alliance wouldn't happen until atleast next week though. Pretty big screw up.

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Ever consider that it's possible Marty had 2 idols? They might have thought it is a possibility, so they still split the vote. It doesn't really make a difference in the end.
Brenda knows Na has the idol.

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Sash/Brenda are morons. They had 2 chances to vote out Marty and didn't. No way either of them can be ranked #1 imo
I agree, but I think Brenda is the smartest one in the alliance, which at times isn't saying much, but she still has a chance to make it to the finals.
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Old 10-28-2010, 12:16 AM   #2214
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I still want the twist where the producers give an idol for everyone and say that they randomly picked one person and they get it. So everyone has an idol but they think they are the only ones.

Would be epic TC's
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Old 10-28-2010, 12:33 AM   #2215
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Okay, I think this:

Brenda, Sash+idol, Naonka+idol, and Chase are likely to rejoin. Brenda and Sash have been feeding Jane's sore ego to keep her on their side. So I kind of think they have control of her. I have no idea what Invisible Kelly is doing, but I would lean towards her probably having no thoughts...of departing from her longstanding alliance with Brenda and Co. Same with Fabio. UNLESS he suddenly realizes that he was in a **** position at La Flor before the merge and is now right back in that **** position. Maybe someone else will realize it for him.

So I have: Sash, Brenda, Naonka, Chase, Jane, Invisible Kelly, and Fabio. That is seven people who probably think they are in tight with each other. Sash, Naonka, and Chase all appeared to have strong ties to Brenda. Jane thinks she is tight with Brenda and Sash. We suspect Fabio and Invisible Kelly don't think that much. Unless someone is looking to move out of this alliance, they already have 7 and can control the post merge voting.

We also have Ben and Alina who operated at nuEspada as if they were trying to get to a merge and resume their unfavorable position with the yellows. They voted out potential allies left and right. This episode Chase painted a target on Alina--labeling her a tough competitor, and Naonka was quick to agree. (I notice Chase didn't point out that Alina was a tough female competitor. As was Yve--his last target for same reason.) Maybe Ben and Alina realize what a crappy spot they are in, but they didn't really seem to act like it because they didn't make any attempt to overthrow their former enemies by trying to bond with Greys. So it's entirely possible that they stick with their non-alliance instead of making an immediate move against La Flor + Jane.

Then, we have lone wolf Marty. Jilless and idoless. I guess we get to test the theory of no idol = no target?

Then, we have Dan and Holly who should go far if people have any sense (no guarantee). They both seem to have new friends, but I'm not sure which friends they are closer to. Will they get any useful information? Will they share it with old friends?

Will Sash's slip up at TC have immediate consequences. I think that would be pretty dangerous for his group right now, so I'm going to say not. But I would have said Marty gets voted out this week and last, so what do I really know? Editors just leading me around by the nose I guess.
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Old 10-28-2010, 12:50 AM   #2216
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Then, we have lone wolf Marty. Jilless and idoless. I guess we get to test the theory of no idol = no target?

Will Sash's slip up at TC have immediate consequences. I think that would be pretty dangerous for his group right now, so I'm going to say not. But I would have said Marty gets voted out this week and last, so what do I really know? Editors just leading me around by the nose I guess

Then, we have Dan and Holly who should go far if people have any sense (no guarantee). They both seem to have new friends, but I'm not sure which friends they are closer to. Will they get any useful information? Will they share it with old friends?
Yve said in a post interview that Dan, and Holly both wouldn't up with Marty, and Jill in a alliance post merge. My theory is that Sash will align with Marty, and Fabio and try to get other people to join him to combat against a Brenda, and all female team plus Dan possibly, depending on what he, and Holly do eventually.

My guess is that Sash & Brenda are either playing for a vote in the finals with giving Marty a bye this week, or they think Marty has far more enemies who won't get as many votes down the road unlike Jillybeans.

I see Sash possibly going out very early post merge by blindside though before a split is really known by Brenda pulling the trigger fearing him, and his power. Don't bother flushing it out, just get him out will be her mindset, and many others in her camp may agree now that they know he has a idol, and is possibly going to jump if it is better for him. Sash is terrible in the speaking department with his body language which I think Brenda will pick up on, and make a move when she feels positive that he is betraying her.
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Old 10-28-2010, 12:59 AM   #2217
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

this is such a goofy season thus far. two shots at getting Marty out and they don't pull the trigger.

merge can't come at a better time. I can definitely see a Marty-Sash partnership coming up here which I think would be great.
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Old 10-28-2010, 01:01 AM   #2218
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Projection in this thread. I'm not sure who is a loon and who is on to something, but I can't give Ben credit for being some kind of mastermind on the verge of a big move when so far what I've seen of him where vote casting was concerned seemed to consist of him asking Chase who he needed to vote for Brenda/Shannon and then, Chase seeming to lead the votes at Espada after the tribe switch.

Ben would have to collect Alina (check), Marty (check?), Dan (?), Holly (?) and they are still 2 short of a majority, and facing two HIIs. Jane is not an option as long as Marty is on the team. If Marty goes, now he has to swing 3. I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just saying I have to see some movement in that direction before I'm getting all gung ho on Benry.
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Old 10-28-2010, 01:15 AM   #2219
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Projection in this thread. I'm not sure who is a loon and who is on to something, but I can't give Ben credit for being some kind of mastermind on the verge of a big move when so far what I've seen of him where vote casting was concerned seemed to consist of him asking Chase who he needed to vote for Brenda/Shannon and then, Chase seeming to lead the votes at Espada after the tribe switch.

Ben would have to collect Alina (check), Marty (check?), Dan (?), Holly (?) and they are still 2 short of a majority, and facing two HIIs. Jane is not an option as long as Marty is on the team. If Marty goes, now he has to swing 3. I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just saying I have to see some movement in that direction before I'm getting all gung ho on Benry.
Well yeah, but there has to be some projection. This isn't season two anymore; people aren't just going to sit at the back of the pecking order and take their medicine. If we weren't doing any projecting, wouldn't our power rankings just be the exact pecking order of the main alliance?

To be clear, I think Brenda is perfectly safe for awhile, and I think Benry could potentially go at F11 (or even next week). However, I think Benry is in better shape to win if he gains an advantage. That's projecting, sure, but so is the idea of "Brenda is in a good alliance now, so they will stick together forever."
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Old 10-28-2010, 01:17 AM   #2220
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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My guess is that Sash & Brenda are either playing for a vote in the finals with giving Marty a bye this week, or they think Marty has far more enemies who won't get as many votes down the road unlike Jillybeans.
Oh, and I forgot to throw out that even though I think allowing Marty to live is not a good idea. I believe that Brenda and Sash saw him as a sitting duck (a sitting duck who gives away his only protection to people who were seriously considering voting him out) so they didn't think it mattered whether they voted him off or not. The Jill vote makes some sense (to them, perhaps?) considering what motivated their vote last week. I can buy that they have reasons even if I'm baffled by thier decisons and the inexplicable vote splitting.

Besides. Marty confessed to having the idol (Jane, I know)--but the kids thought he was ******ed for telling them. He made a big show about how upfront he's been playing the game. And has sold that story well. "I never brought up Jane...they told me, the vote was going to be Jane." HE GAVE AWAY HIS IDOL. He insisted he could not write down Jill's name. He may very well seem like a harmless uncle to these kids. A harmless uncle who just lost his last friend. A harmless uncle who can't catch or throw.
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Old 10-28-2010, 01:29 AM   #2221
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

one time on sash/marty/fabio plz.

blindside naonka's idol out etc.


yea i can dream
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Old 10-28-2010, 01:35 AM   #2222
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Besides. Marty confessed to having the idol (Jane, I know)--but the kids thought he was ******ed for telling them. He made a big show about how upfront he's been playing the game. And has sold that story well. "I never brought up Jane...they told me, the vote was going to be Jane." HE GAVE AWAY HIS IDOL. He insisted he could not write down Jill's name. He may very well seem like a harmless uncle to these kids. A harmless uncle who just lost his last friend. A harmless uncle who can't catch or throw.
I think after the stupid move Marty did by giving away his idol to Sash, that Sash thinks he has power, and can actually control Marty in the future, and probably hooked Brenda into believing it too, unless they believe Jane's hype that the is the worst of the worst, and told everyone at camp that everyone hated him too because that is her feelings on the subject. Brenda, and Sash also I believe saw a sure vote for keeping their word on getting rid of Marty.

Editing was really bad last week, as Fabio is 100% behind the alliance. I expect Allina to be gone first next week, unless they do some blindsides like getting rid of Sash but I think that probably would be in the previews to get people to watch if that possibility were to occur. Brenda has a vendetta against her for being aligned with, and friends with Kelly.
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Old 10-28-2010, 01:36 AM   #2223
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Well yeah, but there has to be some projection. This isn't season two anymore; people aren't just going to sit at the back of the pecking order and take their medicine. If we weren't doing any projecting, wouldn't our power rankings just be the exact pecking order of the main alliance?

To be clear, I think Brenda is perfectly safe for awhile, and I think Benry could potentially go at F11 (or even next week). However, I think Benry is in better shape to win if he gains an advantage. That's projecting, sure, but so is the idea of "Brenda is in a good alliance now, so they will stick together forever."
My intent with the projection comment was more along the lines of projection, not prediction. I feel some of us may be assigning Benry our own strategic chops when we have seen no actual evidence that he has strategic chops. Or enough current allies to make a move.

And on the sitting back in the pecking order issue: wt*&^#$(#*&^ were Ben, Alina, and Fabio doing if not that exact thing when they were so excited about the tribe swap because "now we are in a better spot to advance and remerge with old La Flor down the line."?

I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade by positing a gloomy, predictable forcast, but for this big coup to happen 1. a guy who has thus far had very little control of anything has to seize control. 2. he then, has to wrangle together a bunch of people many of whom have shown exactly the type of sit back in the pecking order behavior that you insist is not going to happen.
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Old 10-28-2010, 01:40 AM   #2224
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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one time on sash/marty/fabio plz.

blindside naonka's idol out etc.

yea i can dream
I don't think this is actually to far from what could happen. Brenda and Chase don't want to lose their friend Na, so Sash gathers up the rest of the tribe, and votes her out. I don't remember outside of Brenda who actually knows she has the idol.
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Old 10-28-2010, 01:44 AM   #2225
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I just wrote down Brenda, Sash, Jane, Chase, and Benry. I'm going to show Benry a little love despite my misgivings. Besides if not, I'm coming dangerously close to having to stick Fabio or Naonka in my line up.
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