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Old 10-26-2010, 12:43 AM   #2051
Nucleon
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Kos13 View Post
I'm not saying Jane is incapable of winning, but age+gender is definitely working against her in a major way. In 20 seasons, only one winner has been older than 40 (Bob in Gabon, and he was next to a 47 year old woman and a crybaby everyone hated), and Sandra is the only woman older than 30 to win in almost a decade. This is a young people's game, and it's not even about the physical aspect as much as it's just hard for a 40+ year old person to build an alliance with a bunch of kids. Older women also tend to be extremely passive followers/floaters; yeah, I'm stereotyping, but I'm not wrong.

Does anyone really envision Jane being more than an afterthought in this young alliance? I guess she COULD win if she gets to the finals with hated people (the most deserving finalist hasn't won in four consecutive seasons, after all), but I certainly wouldn't be betting on her.
But there has been quite a few times where older or weaker contestants make it to the finals or close to it. And if the trend continues to be vote based off of how nice you are as a person, then if Jane does make it to the finals, she has a shot at winning.
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Old 10-26-2010, 01:12 AM   #2052
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Are you referring to Sash or Invisible Kelly? If Inv Kelly, I'm on the same page. Yes, she is a vote in the large alliance which seems to be in control of the game at the moment. Yes, she probably will not be seen as a huge threat any time soon if ever. Yes, people probably like her and might possibly vote for her if she was one of the "vote against actual player named X" options. But I don't think I could pick her out of a line up, so I can't see how she could possibly end up winning.

Sash is a different story. I would have agreed with you prior to last week, but felt I had to change my mind on him given his increased visibility coupled with his current position in the game. Also, I think it's a stretch to claim he was completely invisible in the other epi's. He didn't name himself something ******ed like the meow meow, but people in and out of the game were giving him credit for the the 'minority alliance' as early as the first or second episode.

Also, how randomly inappropriate would Shannon asking him if he was gay seem if we had gotten a lot of face time from Sash? I'm guessing, not very. It might have still seemed inappropriate, but it certainly wouldn't have seemed out of the blue. We would more likely be nodding our heads at the possibility that he was, in fact, gay and following that up with a line from Seinfeld. I'm sure the shock value of Shannon's question at TC would have been significantly reduced.

There were bigger fish to fry in those first couple of episodes than introducing us to Sash. The MartyJimmyJimmy saga was going to be short lived, but made for decent coverage. Alligator shoes were filled with sand and sent off to sea. The back story to Shannon's blaze of glory had to be developed and brought to completion.

Maybe Marty drums up some new allies and votes Sash off next episode, but until I see that happen, I have to respect the position that Sash seems to be in right now, and it's a pretty solid position, I think.

Well, over in the Edgic thread on Sucks, there's a lot of debate regarding Sash and his edit also. I'm not buying his winning chances.

Remember in Samoa, when it was down to the final 4-5 and all of a sudden Brett showed up on the screen? And how everyone kept talking about how dangerous Brett was and how it seemed like Brett had a pretty decent chance of winning? Well, in the end, the person who's invisible for large chunks of the season and then shows up late and seems like a huge threat to win....never wins.

In episode 1, Sash is on screen for like 5 seconds. He says "Here we are, good beach, beautiful women, good times", or something like that. Winners typically get much better introductions in episode 1 (Which is why I feel Jane is a very good contender. Check out her introduction scene in episode 1)

Episode 2, he's shown forming the minority alliance with NaOnka, and he seems like he may have a decent edit in his future.

He's then completely invisible from episodes 3-5.

Entering episode 6, all we know about Sash is: Shannon thought he was gay. He started a minority alliance. NaOnka thinks he has a "million dollar smile". He enjoys being on the beautiful beaches with beautiful women.

That's not a winner's edit. Maybe he's the star of the rest of the season and we get lots of insight into who Sash is, and I wind up being completely wrong. But at this point, I feel pretty solid in saying he won't be our winner.
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Old 10-26-2010, 01:21 AM   #2053
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

GUYS

The editing is a VERY, VERY GOOD indicator of each survivor's fate in the game

Dan, Jill, Kelly Purple, Benry = simply can't win (not necessarily go out early in the merge or not make the finals)

They can definitely be late game or finals goats though
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Old 10-26-2010, 01:28 AM   #2054
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by vyk07 View Post
GUYS

The editing is a VERY, VERY GOOD indicator of each survivor's fate in the game

Dan, Jill, Kelly Purple, Benry = simply can't win (not necessarily go out early in the merge or not make the finals)

They can definitely be late game or finals goats though
You know what I hate most about the editing that I wish they would take out? The animal refreneces that foreshadow the future. Anytime they show a animal, I close my eyes.
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Old 10-26-2010, 01:29 AM   #2055
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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The animal refreneces that foreshadow the future.
you some kinda shaman?
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Old 10-26-2010, 01:32 AM   #2056
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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you some kinda shaman?
lol

Survivor use to include animals that represented the players in the game, and you use to could figure out the results prior to show. I don't know if they ever stopped this practice in the show, or not.
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Old 10-26-2010, 02:22 AM   #2057
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Damn Yve...

Left and right are randoms, yeah? Unless Fabio and NaOnka put on some weight...
The chick on the right is Carolina from Tocantins. She's only memorable when her top is low-cut.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vyk07 View Post
GUYS

The editing is a VERY, VERY GOOD indicator of each survivor's fate in the game

Dan, Jill, Kelly Purple, Benry = simply can't win (not necessarily go out early in the merge or not make the finals)

They can definitely be late game or finals goats though
Why not Jill or Benry? They have not had significantly different edits from several other players, and you seem to think Benry is way more invisible than I do.
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Old 10-26-2010, 03:58 AM   #2058
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Not only did it take until the 4th (?) episode for Benry to get a confessional, his edit has no substance to it. I have no idea where he's from or what he does for a living. He also hasn't really been shown to have personal connections to many people remaining.

The only people off the top of my head who I think are less likely to win than Benry are Kelly and NaOnka.
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Old 10-26-2010, 04:32 AM   #2059
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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CBS is really getting out of hand with these mid-week promos. The one for Wednesday's episode has a pretty blatant spoiler (or it at least appears to be one) in it. I don't know if they're doing this on purpose, but it's annoying.
I went to try and re-watch this just now on CBS.com, but it's not there. They usually have the CBS TV commercial on the website, so I kinda wonder if they pulled it because someone brought the potential spoiler to their attention. I only watch CBS during football, but I saw the commercial at least three times on Sunday, so it was probably running all week. Does anyone know if these mid-Survivor-week commercials are posted on YouTube or somewhere else?
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Old 10-26-2010, 04:55 AM   #2060
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lLMmG13T6s

here's one
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Old 10-26-2010, 07:28 AM   #2061
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Sorry about the long walls of text guys, won't be happening anymore thankfully.

Jill is definitely getting a great edit though, I don't see how anyone could write her off as a potential winner (on a tangential note, she's started posting at Sucks). The only people drawing dead from an editing standpoint are Dan and KPurple; looking at gameplay, we can add NaOnka, Jane etc.
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Old 10-26-2010, 08:18 AM   #2062
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Sorry about the long walls of text guys, won't be happening anymore thankfully.

Jill is definitely getting a great edit though, I don't see how anyone could write her off as a potential winner (on a tangential note, she's started posting at Sucks). The only people drawing dead from an editing standpoint are Dan and KPurple; looking at gameplay, we can add NaOnka, Jane etc.
wow

so much fail in one post
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Old 10-26-2010, 09:31 AM   #2063
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

If you're going to disagree with me, say what you disagree with. Don't open your mouth if you can't back up what comes out of it.

Kos makes a good point about older women. The problem is that they are the worst demographic when it comes to challenges, so if they actually have a chance at winning a jury vote it's difficult for them to get there; and obviously, if they aren't a jury threat, they're just another example that supports the original argument. Also, most of the older people (particularly women) that they cast tend to have little strategic prowess.
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Old 10-26-2010, 10:11 AM   #2064
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Ok.

NaOnka is drawing dead from an editing standpoint. She's been edited far too negatively. I'm not sure why you say she's drawing dead from a gameplay/logic standpoint, because she doesn't seem to be in a terrible spot. If she somehow manages to win, we're going to see one hell of a redemption edit....butnahhhh

Jane is not drawing dead from an editing standpoint or a gameplay standpoint. She's in a decent majority spot in her current tribe, and is very unlikely to be targeted after a merge because she won't be seen as threatening.

Jill's edit started off very promising, but has gone way downhill. She's basically getting a Becky Lee edit. With no insight into her own strategy, she's just an extension of Marty. Perhaps the editors are hiding her behind Marty, and she'll blossom once/if Marty is voted out, but that seems unlikely at this point.

You're right though, about Kelly and Dan drawing dead from an editing standpoint. Add NaOnka, Benry, and Marty though. And probably Sash.
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Old 10-26-2010, 11:21 AM   #2065
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

You're right about NaOnka, I should've included her in the first list. I don't think she's in a good spot in the game though: while she has the idol, I can't imagine her being rational enough to play it at the right time. I doubt any possible jury configuration from the remaining players would give her the money (maybe if all of Brenda/Sash/Chase/Jane/KPurple were on the jury?).

Jane could be the Denise/Lydia of the season I guess, but unless the NuLaFlor alliance takes over the game and Brenda turns on Sash, I can't see her making it to the end. Also, NuLaFlor are probably going to vote for one of their original members over Jane, Marty/Jill probably wouldn't vote for Jane, and if for some reason she is perceived as a jury threat she won't be able to do anything about it.

The thing about the Becky-Yul relationship was that it was always clear that Yul was in control while being calm. Marty is portrayed as being superficially in control, but also as being impulsive and rash, whereas Jill is shown as the voice of reason (the best example being Marty finding the idol, where he acts like Gollum and Jill looks on and reminds him of her part in finding it).
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Old 10-26-2010, 01:30 PM   #2066
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Is it possible that the reason they didn't vote marty last week is that they knew Marty, Jill, and Fabio would vote Kelly and they didn't know which way Jane would go and didn't want to risk a 2nd tie?
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Old 10-26-2010, 01:44 PM   #2067
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Jane could be the Bob Crowley of this season...
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Old 10-26-2010, 01:49 PM   #2068
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Jane could be the Bob Crowley of this season...
Jane has already played better than Bob and it's not even the merge yet.
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Old 10-26-2010, 02:32 PM   #2069
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Is it possible that the reason they didn't vote marty last week is that they knew Marty, Jill, and Fabio would vote Kelly and they didn't know which way Jane would go and didn't want to risk a 2nd tie?
The fact that only two votes went to a non-Marty, non-Kelly B. person (Brenda) on the first vote shows that Jane was with Brenda/Sash, surely?
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Old 10-26-2010, 02:38 PM   #2070
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

also, the fact that they showed Jane's vote for Marty
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Old 10-26-2010, 03:04 PM   #2071
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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The fact that only two votes went to a non-Marty, non-Kelly B. person (Brenda) on the first vote shows that Jane was with Brenda/Sash, surely?
Yes, WE know Jane is with them, but they can't know for sure.
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Old 10-26-2010, 03:45 PM   #2072
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

i think on the revote that it was sashs and fabios idea to get rid of kelly b. i believe breda was upset with the decision as she showed a lot of impatience while waiting to revote. its probably in fabios best interest in his mind to keep marty. sash maybe tries to keep him to convince him to give the idol as we saw in some preview. i also believe kelly purple probably wanted to keep marty too. she thought it was nice of him to show the idol etc. should be a real interesting next episode. going to listen to robs interview with yve now.
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Old 10-26-2010, 03:45 PM   #2073
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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The fact that only two votes went to a non-Marty, non-Kelly B. person (Brenda) on the first vote shows that Jane was with Brenda/Sash, surely?
I think if we were on the island with them we would have seen Jane dogging Marty, and Jane.

One thing that suprises me is hearing Yve say that Dan, and Holly likely wouldn't have returned to a alliance with Marty/Jill/Yve post merge.
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Old 10-26-2010, 03:45 PM   #2074
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

http://robhasawebsite.com/2010/10/26...vor-nicaragua/
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Old 10-26-2010, 03:51 PM   #2075
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

also i think brenda is being severely overrated. when she was lying to kelly b, it was soooo clear she was. its unfortunate she couldnt pick up on that and make a move with marty. she wouldnt make any eye contact with her.
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