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Old 10-22-2010, 12:17 AM   #1976
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

and why was getting rid of coach her best shot for the long run?
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:25 AM   #1977
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Kirbynator View Post
no, she let others decide her fate and it led her to 4th place.
She was 4th regardless b/c her social game was too strong. She was always going to have to win the FIC.
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:26 AM   #1978
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield View Post
and why was getting rid of coach her best shot for the long run?
Coach was an alliance of 2 that wanted to flip post merge to put them on the bottom of the totem pole. By aligning with Russell she became 3-4 in a powerful alliance. Was this a real question?
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:36 AM   #1979
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Re: 2nd Edition of Power Rankings!!!

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Originally Posted by cash mahne View Post
Somewhat, Kind of, Semi, but technically (Un) Official Power Rankings:

Kos13, SavageTilt, Soncy, vyk07, and myself vote on a top 5. Pts values from 1-5 (15, 10, 7, 5, 3).

1. Sash (67)

UTR strategic power player in majority alliance with 2 other members with bigger targets on their back (Brenda + Chase) meaning that his potential deep-game threat is well disguised, good social game, taking a shot of convincing Marty to give him his idol next episode (SavageTilt)

2. Benry (38)

You can make a serious argument for Benry being #1, but he's here only because Sash has a steady alliance. Benry is quietly slimy and appears to at least sort of understand strategy beyond basic first-level thinking. (Kos13)

3. Brenda (37)

Chase is her dog and is improving matters for the group over at the other tribe. Naonka is a tight ally, and can't win. Jane is a willing pawn. Her alliance with Sash is good and bad. He's a strong member of the group, but she might not be able to beat him. (Soncy)

4. Marty (26)

Brenda wants to take 2 strong players to the end. Marty somehow is still in the game without playing an idol. Even against the numbers he will always have a chance to win this game. (Cash Mahne)

5. Chase (19)

sympathetic, physical deep-game threat in majority alliance with no enemies (vyk07)

Others Receiving Votes: Alina 5, Jill 3, Kelly 3
How are we rating Benry above Brenda? He hasn't shown any more inclination to depart from the lemming path than Alina, and he will be a huge IIC threat post merge. I mean he COULD muster a new alliance post merge, but whether he will is purely speculation. What is not speculation is that he will be seen as a threat to win IICs.

Brenda is in tight with Sash. Brenda is in tight with Jane. Brenda is in tight with Naonka and her idol. Brenda is in tight with Chase. As things stand, all of these people look to be in a favorable position to make it to merge. If they merge at 10, Benry has to pick up ALL the riff raff to even make a 5 person alliance to combat the others. LOL, and I forgot Purple Kelly as usual. That makes 6 in Brenda's group.
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:47 AM   #1980
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Re: 2nd Edition of Power Rankings!!!

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Originally Posted by Soncy View Post
How are we rating Benry above Brenda? He hasn't shown any more inclination to depart from the lemming path than Alina, and he will be a huge IIC threat post merge. I mean he COULD muster a new alliance post merge, but whether he will is purely speculation. What is not speculation is that he will be seen as a threat to win IICs.

Brenda is in tight with Sash. Brenda is in tight with Jane. Brenda is in tight with Naonka and her idol. Brenda is in tight with Chase. As things stand, all of these people look to be in a favorable position to make it to merge. If they merge at 10, Benry has to pick up ALL the riff raff to even make a 5 person alliance to combat the others. LOL, and I forgot Purple Kelly as usual. That makes 6 in Brenda's group.
Yeah I don't understand how anyone from the new Espada even makes the list. NaOnka is in the best shape on that tribe, and I don't think her attitude will allow her to win.
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:48 AM   #1981
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by kartinken View Post
She was 4th regardless b/c her social game was too strong. She was always going to have to win the FIC.
no that is wrong. her social game is INCREDIBLY WEAK because she wasnt able to get to final 3 because of who she alligned with. coach wouldve been loyal to her. there are a few part of the games. getting to the finals is the most important. being liked doesnt mean anything if people will just vote you out. russel didnt care about her. if she ever had a real shot of winning shed be eliminated. this is not a strong game.
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:50 AM   #1982
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Spoiler on potential S22 cast:

Spoiler:
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:53 AM   #1983
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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God I wish she had won so we could have seen the sick edit she would have gotten
Consensus from a lot of post interviews seemed to be that she did a lot of enjoying the scenery. CBS crew would have to be pretty creative to turn that into a sick edit.

I don't disagree that not ruffling too many feathers is a good policy. And that Jerri excelled in this area. And I agree that she could have won, had she made it to the end. However, the same people who were making all the decisions about who to vote off, and when to use an idol, were going to be the same people who decided whether or not Jerri made it to the end. It's not a good spot to be in if you've been pretty easy to get along with all along. But to each his own.

I thought Parv played the best game by far. And through the most adversity. But I understand why Sandra won, and was okay with the game she played as well. I personally would not have voted Jerri over either Sandra or Parv and I think anyone who would is taking spite voting way too far.
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:54 AM   #1984
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

how credible did it seem?
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Old 10-22-2010, 01:00 AM   #1985
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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chase is obv winning, no enemies is a huge +++, and he appears to have a brain

i don't think sash's plan is going to work at all either, marty isn't that ******ed but the target on his back makes it pretty unlikely he'll go super far imo, i mean how often do people who take serious early heat go on to win?
He will have enemies come merge. Give it time. Also, his brain may be held captive by Brenda.

I would like to be able to confidently say that Sash's plan will not work, but the way people keep acting the complete opposite of what appears to make sense is making me seriously question my judgement. (I know, you can't tell by my bitchy posts.) {shrug}
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Old 10-22-2010, 01:09 AM   #1986
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Kos13 View Post
He was shocked he didn't go home because he didn't expect it to be a tie with him and KB. He expected it to be 3 votes on Brenda, 3 on X, and 2 on Marty (the kids thinking they split it 3-3 but Jane changing her vote). Marty thought he controlled three votes, not two. I don't know why you keep bringing up Brenda's speech, as that was designed to piss Jane off and keep her loyal to the kids in case she was thinking about flipping her Marty vote to whomever Jill and Marty were also voting for.
No he was also shocked after the second vote. The younger tribe had the numbers the second vote and could have easily voted him off.

Because that speech scared the **** ouf of Marty to the point where he tells Jane to change her vote to vote Brenda off because he no longer trusts her, and is worried himself that he maybe the next one to go home. Which is why someone would normally use the idol in this case that he has a chance of going home.

The writting is on the wall that you have a strong chance at going home, and you would choose to just sit back, and potentially be eliminated for some type of move that isn't even there to begin with.

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You're analyzing this from the perspective of: everyone wants Marty off immediately. That's obviously not true. You can spin it however you want, but the kids had Marty in their crosshairs, and instead of pulling the trigger, they picked off KB. Also, the thing I think you're missing here...
I don't know where you are making that assumption because I never said that in that type of a perspective. And I would appreciate it Kos if you stopped making assumptions instead of spinning things I have said out of place like the quote in your last post where you stated that I said that the target would be off of Marty's backside.

I am anaylzing it from Marty's perspective that a person on your tribe who is in the biggest alliance is sending warning shots your way, and you could be in danger after being told that they are going to be voting another way. And Marty was certainly scared because he wouldn't have told Jane to vote Brenda if he wasn't worried because that even puts a bigger target on your back.

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If Jill isn't immune, they split it on Jill and Marty. Only because Jill is immune was it worth the risk to not use it because the kids HAVE TO vote (even if it's just a split) on one of their own. This is not true at the next vote, when no one is immune. Marty has to take the risk that they will do exactly what they did and boot one of their own first because THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN AT THE NEXT VOTE. They might do it when it's Marty or KB, but they won't do it when Marty and Jill are BOTH eligible. Therefore, the idol is more valuable at the next vote than it is at this one. Does that make sense?
But Jill isn't immune, and that never happend so how is that even a issue? Marty, and the younger tribe made two terrible decisions. Marty got lucky that he was playing with a awful tribe who didn't take out the person with a idol, and Marty made a stupid decision by not playing it and being sent home. You don't go all in before looking at your cards if your opponent shows that he has a killer pair. It's terrible gameplay! What is the sense in two extra weeks instead of one? But right there is the solution to your problem. Things can change on Survivor, and people turn on each other. If you have the numbers, and are cocky that there is a chance you want to lighten your load with getting rid of a stronger player from within like Fabio.

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Originally Posted by kartinken View Post
I like how you call Brenda's speech "terrible," then immediately go on to say you would have fallen for it hook, line, and sinker. If it's a terrible speech, that doesn't say much for you as a Survivor strategist as you would have burned the idol for zero gain.
You are playing it like a Monday Morning QB Kar. You are looking at it out of the fish bowl, after the events already happened, and not playing it like if you were there. Someone sends some warning shots at you, and you know they know you have the idol, and this is their first chance to get rid of you, and then they tell you one thing, and then at tribal you find out they are having different thoughts. That's a big sign something is up. And if Marty didn't play it, and Brenda, and the rest of the tribe used their brains Marty would have been gone, and some people would have been saying this was a awful terrible move, and why didn't he use it, and then we would have had Probst ask Marty "How stupid did you feel?" for not using the idol and staying in the game.

It wouldn't have been for zero gain because you actually still be in it if they didn't. Which is a pretty smart strategic move that castmembers have fallen because they never used it. And as we have seen in previous seasons like what Soncy speaks about, there are more chances, including more immunity idols to be found. It isn't the end of the world by not having a idol, and Dr. Will was able to win season 2 without winning a competition, he used his brains to do it, even when odds were against him, and almost did it for a second time in a row.

Quote:
Clearly Brenda's speech was designed to get Marty to use the idol even though he wasn't the one actually going home. If Marty is as good as he claims to be, then he probably figured this out. The speech may be the very reason he didn't use the idol. It's also possible Fabio simply told him KB was going home.
I don't think Fabio told him anything by his reactions to Brenda's speech when he goes on to tell Jane to vote Brenda out. And it was a bad play by the younger tribe to not get the guy out with a idol.

Quote:
In any case it's extremely difficult, by process or results, to call not playing the idol a mistake.
I don't think it is difficult at all when you are blindsided at tribal with potential warnings. Do you as in Marty want to be known as one of the many who didn't use it and stay in the game and have a shot with big warning signs? Or be another Ozzy, and James?

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One thing is clear to me. Brenda is the sharpest on this season with Marty and Jill close behind. I also like Jane as a wild card. The new La Fluer is awesome
The sharpest? More like one of the dumbest when you have the ability to get rid of not only a strong player who is both physical, and strategic, but also has a hidden idol.

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Originally Posted by SavageTilt View Post
Nucleon: Everything you've written on this page is ******ed. Firstly, this is not even close to the James situation (other in than in levels of overall stupidity by a group of young people). James has two idols with three TCs left in which to play them, and so if he was going to be voted out it HAD to be that night. James had no idea he was being targetted, whereas Marty was fully aware that his name was coming up and that the kids were going to split the vote.
Well then don't you see where this is as close to the James situtation? He had two idols with three tribals left and doesn't use it, and gets voted off. Marty has actual warning shots, has a idol, doesn't play it, and goes home. You yourself even state that he was warned he could potentially be going home!

Quote:
Marty's error was in not making the play that gave him the best possible chance of avoiding a tie + revote i.e. vyk's suggestion of splitting their two votes between the two most likely sacrificial lambs. Secondly, it's absurd to say that Marty not having the idol would make him less of a target, since there's a 100% likelihood that he's gone at the next TC. Thirdly, it's hypocritical of you to use the editing as part of a desperate argument and then make claims that are completely dependent on the editing. How do you know that Marty didn't have some super secret pact with Kelly S and Jud? 45 minutes out of 72 hours yo!
But it does make you less of a target. There is less fear he will gain it again next week. It is the same scenario as taking out a alliance member that is close to someone that they will fall down without him/her, and that they will get the other person out the following week but that has changed many upon many of times in reality tv challenges. People get ticked off by the slighest thing and the target changes, and boom they are under the radar.

How is it hyprocritical? It is the absolute facts! You as well as I have no clue on what goes on minus what we see. The editors show you what they want you to see and that is that. Ever followed Big Brother online, as well as watch the TV show and see how their editing works? They make one person the villian, and the other person the Saint even if that is not how it is perceived in real life. During editing they may take one peice from a few episodes ago and splice it into the current episode to make you think something else, and contestants of these tv shows talk about this all the time! There is only 45 minutes in a show, and they are creating a story full of drama, and take the best things, or the things that fit the character they want! We have no clue what really goes on unless the contestants speak out about it. A super secret pact is something worth noting and putting on air!

Quote:
Power rankings:
1. Sash: He's at the head of the majority alliance on La Flor, and despite his alliance's collective lolbadness this episode he seems more intelligent than most players left in the game. With a merge imminent, he looks to be one of the strongest physical competitors. In addition, he is aligned with one of the biggest threats in the game - Brenda - and she's always being targetted instead of him.
I disagree with your power rankings. Sash among the rest in his tribe, as well as most left in this game are terrible. You leave a guy with a idol vs someone who is not as big of a threat. If you are going to go after someone why not Fabio? He is atleast a threat! And I wouldn't put stock into how good people are at challenges this early in the game because physical competitors are known to not play as tough until further on out when it counts because they don't want to be seen as a threat.

I would pick people on the younger tribe on the blue team have a smarter idea on how to play the game by getting rid of threat and keeping Dan who can be beat much easier in single competitions down the road.

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Originally Posted by Soncy View Post
AND, if you are still in the game, you still have the chance to make a move. You can find another idol. You have more information with which to try to make new alliances. You appear significantly less threatening.

Also, I always think people in Fabio's position have the idea that flushing the idol is a good thing even though alligning with the idol could be next best. Ultimately, Fabio wants the idol. If the idol is put back into play, he has a shot to get it. Is he thinking critically about this...not likely. I think he is mostly listening to Sash say they have a plan to flush the idol and thinking, "Yeah, {drool} flush the idol. Good idea." Still, once it's gone, he may look at Marty thinking he seems less scarey now.

Also, if Russell thinks he can't sway Jerri or someone else, what is the point in taking a risk to himself in order to attempt to save Parv? He, Parv, and Danielle aren't going to vote anyone out by themselves anyway. So either, Russell had some idea he could make a move if Tyson was stupid enough to vote himself out, OR, he was simply content to fall on his sword in order to save Parv. Also, in Russell's case, I believe he had a reasonable expectation that Tyson might do something looney. After all, Russell had planted a seed. And Russell always expects his seeds to produce fruit.

In Marty's case, you have to be extremely results oriented to say that it was reasonable for him to not use the idol with the way things went down at TC. However, I guess since he was so clueless about what was going on, maybe he thought his big plan of 'let's vote for Brenda together, Jane' was going to save him. I just don't see how he doesn't think he is a target and needs to take measures to ensure his safety RIGHT NOW, and worry about the fall out later. Instead, wooooooooooooooooo whooooooooo! I went all in with 72 and won the hand!!! Although, I think 72 probably has more EV than Marty could expect to have had in not using the idol.
Great points Soncy!
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Old 10-22-2010, 01:28 AM   #1987
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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The sharpest? More like one of the dumbest when you have the ability to get rid of not only a strong player who is both physical, and strategic, but also has a hidden idol.
Have you been paying attention to how ******ed the rest of the cast is? brenda is clearly the highest-level thinker. Yes, it appears she made her first error on wednesday, but I'm gonna reserve final judgment on this play til next episode.

Last edited by kartinken; 10-22-2010 at 01:35 AM.
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Old 10-22-2010, 01:32 AM   #1988
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Have you been paying attention to how ******ed the rest of the cast is? brenda is clearly the highest-level thinker. Yes, it appears she made her first error tonight, but I'm gonna reserve final judgment on this play til next episode.
Well after watching last nights show I would say the blue team has the better thinkers since they got out a actual threat. Not getting rid of Marty even when he has a idol and decides to not play it could be a terrible move for the future. Anyone who does that isn't to high on my book. It is like two seasons ago when Russell got the other team to vote off the crazy dude right after the merge.
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Old 10-22-2010, 01:42 AM   #1989
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Great points Soncy!
Please don't compliment my points in the same breath that you laud Fabio as a bigger threat in this game than Sash. I'm just kidding...sort of.

By 'just kidding' I mean, I intend you no malice.

Last edited by Soncy; 10-22-2010 at 01:51 AM.
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Old 10-22-2010, 01:45 AM   #1990
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Well after watching last nights show I would say the blue team has the better thinkers since they got out a actual threat. Not getting rid of Marty even when he has a idol and decides to not play it could be a terrible move for the future. Anyone who does that isn't to high on my book. It is like two seasons ago when Russell got the other team to vote off the crazy dude right after the merge.
lol, Russell didn't get anyone to do that, they just did it and Russell's run of insane good luck began.

Like I said, wait til next week. if sash and brenda get Marty to give up his idol they will look like geniuses.
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Old 10-22-2010, 01:48 AM   #1991
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Like I said, wait til next week. if sash and brenda get Marty to give up his idol they will look like geniuses.
I think that is all a editing ploy to get people to watch next week, but crazier things have happened on Survivor this season that it wouldn't suprise me! lol
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Old 10-22-2010, 01:57 AM   #1992
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Soncy View Post
Please don't compliment my points in the same breath that you laud Fabio as a bigger threat in this game than Sash. I'm just kidding...sort of.

By 'just kidding' I mean, I intend you no malice.
More malice ITT, imo.

edit: this was sarcasm, please no one take me up on this.
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Old 10-22-2010, 02:06 AM   #1993
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Soncy View Post
Please don't compliment my points in the same breath that you laud Fabio as a bigger threat in this game than Sash. I'm just kidding...sort of.

By 'just kidding' I mean, I intend you no malice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kartinken View Post
More malice ITT, imo.

edit: this was sarcasm, please no one take me up on this.
Don't worry you two I got it. lol I was trying to come up with a Fabio joke prior to the replaying about my love for the real golden boy who may have one of the greatest moments in Survivor history about non gameplay that goes down with the peanut butter nakedness of Jenna, and Holly when he goes to the bathroom in the water!

It would be great if he did it prior to the challenge ending!
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Old 10-22-2010, 06:37 AM   #1994
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Nucleon
It wouldn't have been for zero gain because you actually still be in it if they didn't. Which is a pretty smart strategic move that castmembers have fallen because they never used it. And as we have seen in previous seasons like what Soncy speaks about, there are more chances, including more immunity idols to be found. It isn't the end of the world by not having a idol, and Dr. Will was able to win season 2 without winning a competition, he used his brains to do it, even when odds were against him, and almost did it for a second time in a row.
See, you may be right if it was someone like either Kelly or Jud who had the idol. The problem is that Marty is viewed as the biggest threat among the oldies, regardless of whether the idol is in play or not. The oldies are now down 8-5 overall, and so the youngies are definitely going into the merge with a majority. No-one is going to switch to Marty's side on La Flor if he doesn't have the leverage the idol gives him, so if he uses the idol he has to hope La Flor win the next 3 ICs. Since that means Espada loses the next 3 ICs, the youngie majority on Espada can vote out Dan (who happens to be Marty's pawn, oops) as well as anyone most likely to defect to the remaining oldies. Marty therefore goes into the merge - if he makes it there at all - as the biggest target in an overwhelmingly outnumbered minority. How is he supposed to win the game from there?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nucleon
Well then don't you see where this is as close to the James situtation? He had two idols with three tribals left and doesn't use it, and gets voted off. Marty has actual warning shots, has a idol, doesn't play it, and goes home. You yourself even state that he was warned he could potentially be going home!
James had 2 HIIs with 3 TCs left. It was logically impossible for the right play at F7 to be not playing an idol: if they vote out Peih-Gee/Erik instead at F7, if (Peih-Gee/Erik)/James wins immunity at F6 then Amanda/Courtney/Todd are in a lot of trouble. If James goes into F6 with both idols, he has a free pass to F4. Therefore the only opportunity his alliance had to vote him out at F7 onwards was F7.

Marty, by contrast, has 1 HII with AT LEAST 5 TCs left, most likely 6-7. He has to be thinking about the long-term implications of using his idol. This isn't anywhere close to the James situation.

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How is it hyprocritical? It is the absolute facts! You as well as I have no clue on what goes on minus what we see. The editors show you what they want you to see and that is that. Ever followed Big Brother online, as well as watch the TV show and see how their editing works? They make one person the villian, and the other person the Saint even if that is not how it is perceived in real life. During editing they may take one peice from a few episodes ago and splice it into the current episode to make you think something else, and contestants of these tv shows talk about this all the time! There is only 45 minutes in a show, and they are creating a story full of drama, and take the best things, or the things that fit the character they want! We have no clue what really goes on unless the contestants speak out about it. A super secret pact is something worth noting and putting on air!
Alliances aren't always accurately reflected on the show though; Stephen Fishbach's posts on Sucks document this in great detail, I can get the link for you if you want. If you're using the editing as a tool in your argument, you have to concede that there may be things not shown in the editing that informed Marty's decision not to play his idol.

Quote:
I disagree with your power rankings. Sash among the rest in his tribe, as well as most left in this game are terrible. You leave a guy with a idol vs someone who is not as big of a threat. If you are going to go after someone why not Fabio? He is atleast a threat! And I wouldn't put stock into how good people are at challenges this early in the game because physical competitors are known to not play as tough until further on out when it counts because they don't want to be seen as a threat.
This isn't a ranking of who the best players are, it's a ranking of who is most likely to win the game. That person is Sash.
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Old 10-22-2010, 08:32 AM   #1995
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by SavageTilt View Post
Alliances aren't always accurately reflected on the show though; Stephen Fishbach's posts on Sucks document this in great detail, I can get the link for you if you want. If you're using the editing as a tool in your argument, you have to concede that there may be things not shown in the editing that informed Marty's decision not to play his idol.
I'd actually like this link.
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Old 10-22-2010, 08:40 AM   #1996
boc4life
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

wow i hate this thread so much. There's just so much opinion that gets bandied about as fact. So little understanding of the editing process. So little appreciation for the great things about this season.

Anyway, this past episode was a snoozer. As double boot episodes generally are. Hearing 14 different people's reasoning for who they're going to vote for and why is a recipe for a boring episode. Disappointing that the older folks are getting whittled away so quickly, there were a lot of entertaining characters on that tribe. At this point, only Jane and Holly appear to have reasonable shots of winning based on editing/logic. I'm pulling heavily for Holly, as I think she'd be the most entertaining winner since Heidik, and maybe the most entertaining winner ever.

As for the youngins, I dunno. It's nice to have an episode go by where NaOnka isn't edited into a huge villainous *****. Brenda is obviously great for the show. Nice to look at, willing to make bold moves and not just stay in the shadows. But there's something that has me cheering against her. I have lots of Alina love, but she's getting a bland, narrator's edit Chase? zzzzzzzzzzz. Sash? Not buying his winning chances after he was ignored by the editors for 4 consecutive episodes. Kelly S? Poor girl must have turned down Probst's advances or something to deserve this kind of treatment from the editors.

I just hope Holly or Fabio wins. Either of them would make this one of my favorite seasons. But my favos never win, so we're probably headed for a Jane win after she makes no enemies and gets to the end by not being a physical threat.
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Old 10-22-2010, 09:16 AM   #1997
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by boc4life View Post

I just hope Fabio wins.
I am going to go ahead and guess you voted Bush, twice!
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Old 10-22-2010, 09:44 AM   #1998
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by kartinken View Post
I'd actually like this link.
http://survivorsucks.com/topic/58598?page=1. There are a lot of crap posts there by Sucksters, but Stephen himself gives valuable insight about Tocantins. He also posted in the Tocantins edgic thread a few times apparently, but I cba to go looking for it.
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Old 10-22-2010, 12:58 PM   #1999
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by SavageTilt View Post
See, you may be right if it was someone like either Kelly or Jud who had the idol. The problem is that Marty is viewed as the biggest threat among the oldies, regardless of whether the idol is in play or not. The oldies are now down 8-5 overall, and so the youngies are definitely going into the merge with a majority. No-one is going to switch to Marty's side on La Flor if he doesn't have the leverage the idol gives him, so if he uses the idol he has to hope La Flor win the next 3 ICs. Since that means Espada loses the next 3 ICs, the youngie majority on Espada can vote out Dan (who happens to be Marty's pawn, oops) as well as anyone most likely to defect to the remaining oldies. Marty therefore goes into the merge - if he makes it there at all - as the biggest target in an overwhelmingly outnumbered minority. How is he supposed to win the game from there?
Actually I wouldn't say Marty is looked upon as the biggest threat amongst this tribe when you consider that they got rid of Kelly, and there is a probability of getting rid Jill next if they are worried about sympathy votes at the finals. Marty is the type of guy who some people want to bring, because they play based off of emotion vs strategic. Marty is a huge *******, and sets people off in the wrong ways. Hence why you want to take someone like him or Na to the finals. We could get another jury like the two previous seasons where they vote off of emotion vs good gameplay.

People are not going to switch? BIG ALLIANCES can break when the people on the lower end figure out that they have no chance of winning, and choose to do their own thing, or just bring in someone for a vote to get off of bigger threats.

You also discount the possibility of Marty going, and finding another hidden idol. Idols are not everything, and not every person who has had a idol wins the game. It actually leads to a bigger target, especially if people know you have one.

Quote:
James had 2 HIIs with 3 TCs left. It was logically impossible for the right play at F7 to be not playing an idol: if they vote out Peih-Gee/Erik instead at F7, if (Peih-Gee/Erik)/James wins immunity at F6 then Amanda/Courtney/Todd are in a lot of trouble. If James goes into F6 with both idols, he has a free pass to F4. Therefore the only opportunity his alliance had to vote him out at F7 onwards was F7.

Marty, by contrast, has 1 HII with AT LEAST 5 TCs left, most likely 6-7. He has to be thinking about the long-term implications of using his idol. This isn't anywhere close to the James situation.
It is closer then you imagine when you consider not playing it could lead to being voted off and having zero chance of returning to the game with as much fear that Marty was in. Smart gameplayers which nobody on this tribe really are would have gotten rid of the guy with the idol, take out a huge physical, and mental threat, and takes out one of their opposing foes, and understands that there is a small slim chance of acutally getting the guy with the idol to give it to you when you need it.

Those this is a stupid season, with a stupid cast that includes a lady who throws her tribe members shoes in the water, and then tells him, and then becomes closer to him. And people PRACTICALLY GIVING UP IDOLS! But Survivor has casts a ton of players, or atleast use to up to a couple years ago with the majority being found by casting, and not by going with people who have sent in tapes. Which is why there are so many people from California on this show. Johnny Fairplay was found by luck.

Quote:
Alliances aren't always accurately reflected on the show though; Stephen Fishbach's posts on Sucks document this in great detail, I can get the link for you if you want. If you're using the editing as a tool in your argument, you have to concede that there may be things not shown in the editing that informed Marty's decision not to play his idol.
But this all happend at tribal too which is slightly different. Marty goes nuts in fear of Brenda and tells her to change her vote. This all didn't happen back at camp.

Quote:
This isn't a ranking of who the best players are, it's a ranking of who is most likely to win the game. That person is Sash.
How so? It is to early in my opinion to do this, and if you go by the amount of time given to people on who will make the finals by screen Sash has very little compared to the others. Which could all change. Sash is young, and athletic, smart in his alliance but he is in a alliance full of emotionally charged individuals. Will Brenda really want to take someone to him to the finals or to the final elimination?
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Old 10-22-2010, 01:14 PM   #2000
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

its pretty obvious the most likely to win is brenda and its not close
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