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Old 10-21-2010, 03:32 PM   #1926
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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originally posted by vyk07
9)Resulting in = 3 original votes for Marty + 3 votes for the goat in the group of 6 (suspected to be KellyB or Jane) + 1 vote on suspected goat #1 by Marty (lets say on Kelly B) + 1 vote on suspected goat #2 by Jill (Jane)
10)This results in = 3 Marty + 4 KellyB + 1 Jane or = 3 Marty + 1 KellyB + 4 Jane, effectively saving the crucial idol for another week
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Originally Posted by Kos13 View Post
They shouldn't split their votes. Marty and Jill should vote together for the kid (i.e. not Jane) they think is the most likely target. It's pretty simple, they just panicked at TC and switched to Brenda, which only works if both Jane AND Fabio also vote for her. They screwed up their end of it, but they should vote as a block, regardless of who it's for.
I think you missed my point and are misinterpreting the EV of splitting the votes. I don't understand the logic to your counterpoint, which states to throw both votes on the goat, because it backfires if the goat turns out to be someone else like Jane/Fabio (assuming she or Fabio is the 2nd most dispensable member of the group by their judgment)

By my scenario's stipulations, where both Marty/Jill are UNABLE to flip anyone and are expecting a 3 for Marty 3 for group outsider knowing that Marty is forced to play the idol (given Jill is immune), essentially neglecting Marty/Jill's votes (in their mind), flushing the idol, and ousting the outsider (their safety net)

This plan neglects Marty and Jill's ability to throw their votes on the outsider serving as the pin cushion. So by splitting their vote on Jane and KellyB (or whichever two outsiders they think are most liable to be sacrificed), Marty and Jill increase their chances to successfully save the idol

Here's the math: suppose by their reasonable estimates, KellyB has 75% chance to be the group's goat, Jane = 20%, and Fabio/whoever = 5%
-By putting 1 vote on the 2 biggest potential goats (lets say KellyB and Jane for 95% total certainty), they substantially increase their EV


2 main scenarios by your logic (combining the votes on single biggest goat):
WIN: 3 Marty + 3 KellyB + 2 KellyB (from Marty/Jill like you suggested) = 75% certainty, Marty and the idol are safe
LOSE: 3 Marty + 3 Jane + 2 KellyB = 25 % Marty goes in the revote

2 main scenarios under my logic (splitting the votes among 2 biggest perceived goats):
WIN: 3 Marty + 3 KellyB + 1 KellyB + 1 Jane = 75% certainty
WIN: 3 Marty + 3 Jane + 1 KellyB + 1 Jane = 20% certainty
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Old 10-21-2010, 03:35 PM   #1927
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

The only hole is that they can't KNOW Jane has flipped. If they knew, Marty wouldn't have wasted his time telling her to vote Brenda. In their minds, they have two solid votes and a potential third, which is part of the confusion.

Last edited by K.O.S.; 10-21-2010 at 03:36 PM. Reason: which is why, from their POV (not ours as the viewers), they shouldn't vote for Jane
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Old 10-21-2010, 03:44 PM   #1928
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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You might want to look up "expected value." If he burns the idol, he's toast unless they sweep immunities until the merge (or there's another swap, but that's unlikely). With so many kids left, they might even throw the next immunity so they could boot him. So yeah, he survives one vote, but he's in a terrible position. Your advice is to take the risk-less, lower-EV move, which is why you'd be going home at the next vote if you were Marty.
Not true at all Kos! Getting rid of the idol takes a huge target off of your back immediatley, and as we have seen in all types of reality shows once the threat is gone, you have a much, much better chance at staying!

Again would you rather still be in the game with atleast a shot of winning it, or totally gone with zero percent chance at winning? That's a James move by not playing it after what Brenda said at Tribal. I sure enough would rather be in it then be gone! You are looking at it from a potentially wrong way, because now that the ido has been flushed out, and there numbers are much more higher then the older tirbe members they may just as well try to get rid of some of the younger players like Fabio.

Not to mention Marty is playing the ******* game, and people would more likely want to be up against him at the end vs his ally, who could likely get the boot for being too nice! The last thing I would want to be known as is the person with a idol who could have used it, and still won the game vs being taken out.

Quote:
Also, I find it funny that you said not using the idol ends any chance he has of winning. He didn't use it and survived, so clearly, not using the idol does not mean certain death..
What I find more funny is that you actually think that he had any odds of staying after Brenda's speech, and deciding to not play the idol would even be a smart move. Like I said if you weren't playing against a bunch of idiots he would surely have been gone! But he was playing with a tribe that didn't understand strategety. It was all LUCK that he stayed. Nothing more! There was zero skill, and thought in how that tribal went down, and was just a bunch of people who felt threatend by a woman who they think they couldn't beat at the end.

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What? No, it didn't. He had no idea Jerri would flip and Coach would non-vote the next week.
He may have been closer to Jerri then what you think, but as a viewer you don't get to see everything. Only 45 minutes from a 72 hour period. He may have knew he had great odds of being able to sway her from his conversations with her.
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Old 10-21-2010, 03:48 PM   #1929
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Not true at all Kos! Getting rid of the idol takes a huge target off of your back immediatley
LOL at the implication that Marty isn't a target if he uses the idol. Come on.

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Again would you rather still be in the game with atleast a shot of winning it, or totally gone with zero percent chance at winning?
KEEPING THE IDOL DOES NOT MEAN HE AUTOMATICALLY GOES HOME, SO THIS IS ******ED.

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Like I said if you weren't playing against a bunch of idiots he would surely have been gone! But he was playing with a tribe that didn't understand strategety. It was all LUCK that he stayed. Nothing more! There was zero skill, and thought in how that tribal went down, and was just a bunch of people who felt threatend by a woman who they think they couldn't beat at the end.
But he IS playing with idiots. You're analyzing this from a vacuum, which is pointless. He felt, for whatever reason, he could not use the idol and still survive. He was right. They looked at KB as a bigger threat/hindrance/whatever, so how can you say it was luck when he wasn't their target? They could have booted him, and they didn't, so he obviously didn't NEED the idol in this particular instance.
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Old 10-21-2010, 03:56 PM   #1930
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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LOL at the implication that Marty isn't a target if he uses the idol. Come on.
Where did I say he wouldn't be?

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KEEPING THE IDOL DOES NOT MEAN HE AUTOMATICALLY GOES HOME, SO THIS IS ******ED.
No it doesn't but PLAYING WITH ANYONE WITH INTELLIGENCE WOULD HAVE GUARANTEED HE WOULD HAVE WENT HOME! He isn't playing with strong people. If this had happend on the blue team he would have been GONE!

Quote:
But he IS playing with idiots. You're analyzing this from a vacuum, which is pointless. He felt, for whatever reason, he could not use the idol and still survive. He was right. They looked at KB as a bigger threat/hindrance/whatever, so how can you say it was luck when he wasn't their target? They could have booted him, and they didn't, so he obviously didn't NEED the idol in this particular instance.
But he WOULDN'T HAVE KNOWN HE WAS PLAYING WITH IDIOTS BECAUSE HE DIDN'T BELIEVE THEY WERE!!! MOST PEOPLE HERE WERE SHOCKED THAT HE DIDN'T GO HOME! Look at his facial expressions after the vote! He trusted the other team UNTIL BRENDA MOUTHED OFF!

It was LUCK, because are you honestly telling me that after the speech Brenda gave at Tribal that you wouldn't think you would not be going home?!?! Had the tribe used wits, everyone on the board would be saying this was one of the wrost moves in the history of the game, instead of saying it was one of the worst moves that the younger tribe did.`
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Old 10-21-2010, 04:12 PM   #1931
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

He was shocked he didn't go home because he didn't expect it to be a tie with him and KB. He expected it to be 3 votes on Brenda, 3 on X, and 2 on Marty (the kids thinking they split it 3-3 but Jane changing her vote). Marty thought he controlled three votes, not two. I don't know why you keep bringing up Brenda's speech, as that was designed to piss Jane off and keep her loyal to the kids in case she was thinking about flipping her Marty vote to whomever Jill and Marty were also voting for.

You're analyzing this from the perspective of: everyone wants Marty off immediately. That's obviously not true. You can spin it however you want, but the kids had Marty in their crosshairs, and instead of pulling the trigger, they picked off KB. Also, the thing I think you're missing here...

If Jill isn't immune, they split it on Jill and Marty. Only because Jill is immune was it worth the risk to not use it because the kids HAVE TO vote (even if it's just a split) on one of their own. This is not true at the next vote, when no one is immune. Marty has to take the risk that they will do exactly what they did and boot one of their own first because THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN AT THE NEXT VOTE. They might do it when it's Marty or KB, but they won't do it when Marty and Jill are BOTH eligible. Therefore, the idol is more valuable at the next vote than it is at this one. Does that make sense?
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Old 10-21-2010, 04:19 PM   #1932
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

There's no need for detailed analysis for this episode. Everyone in the game is stupid. Sash is semi competent, rest terrible.
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Old 10-21-2010, 05:03 PM   #1933
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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The only hole is that they can't KNOW Jane has flipped. If they knew, Marty wouldn't have wasted his time telling her to vote Brenda. In their minds, they have two solid votes and a potential third, which is part of the confusion.

Last edited by Kos13; Today at 03:36 PM. Reason: which is why, from their POV (not ours as the viewers), they shouldn't vote for Jane
In a secret transcipt from one of the last few episodes, Brenda mentioned positioning herself in the finals with 2 goats. She specifically said her plan was to drag "Kelly Purple, Naonka, Jud, and other non-threats" as deep into the game as possible. This seems like a crucial segment of information, but it did not make the edit (possibly in the hope of raising suspense). Also countless other footage of Jane's animosity and hatred of Marty (she absolutely can't stand him, and I don't understand why her interaction with him as well as Yve speaking strategy to Marty in Spanish constantly in camp, is all edited out of the episodes)

Keep in mind that there is a clusterf*ck of footage not shown between episodes (namely approx 71 hours and 20 minutes worth). So what we as the viewer perceive, is offset by the inside information not shown in the episodes that each survivor possesses

My hypothetical scenario is based from Marty and Jill's insider perception and observation of group dynamics. The fact that you dispute the #2 goat in this scenario, makes absolutely no difference in the plan, because the players themselves have the easier and more informed decision to make

Not to mention all the secret scenes of Fabio hanging out and laughing with the other young LaFlors (outside his brief interaction with Marty that is overwhelms his edit) and Boston Rob's wise adage of "The key to this game is figuring out who is in what alliance and that can be done by observing where each person sleeps, etc". In Fabio's case, he sleeps next to KellyPurple and Brenda and he is fairly solid with the whole young group. All of this crucial information does not make the edit to create suspense in the tribal, by leaving the audience confused and unaware about the actual tribe dynamics

This is all information Marty and Jill could take into account on deciding their 2 biggest goats to throw votes on. Your disagreement with my perception of Jane to be goat #2 is irrelevant.
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Old 10-21-2010, 05:14 PM   #1934
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Vyk's idea is brilliant, and was definitely the right play for Marty/Jill.

Kos: I completely agree that not playing the idol was right, but his actions weren't consistent with what he'd need to do to get away with not playing it. Also, I think you're being too easy on him for not realising Jane had the potential to flip. Marty and Jill never seemed to bond with her at Espada, and she was essentially told to shut up and play along when the Jimmys were booted. Anyone in that situation is liable to flip if they're sensible.

Nucleon: Everything you've written on this page is ******ed. Firstly, this is not even close to the James situation (other in than in levels of overall stupidity by a group of young people). James has two idols with three TCs left in which to play them, and so if he was going to be voted out it HAD to be that night. James had no idea he was being targetted, whereas Marty was fully aware that his name was coming up and that the kids were going to split the vote. Marty's error was in not making the play that gave him the best possible chance of avoiding a tie + revote i.e. vyk's suggestion of splitting their two votes between the two most likely sacrificial lambs. Secondly, it's absurd to say that Marty not having the idol would make him less of a target, since there's a 100% likelihood that he's gone at the next TC. Thirdly, it's hypocritical of you to use the editing as part of a desperate argument and then make claims that are completely dependent on the editing. How do you know that Marty didn't have some super secret pact with Kelly S and Jud? 45 minutes out of 72 hours yo!

Power rankings:
1. Sash: He's at the head of the majority alliance on La Flor, and despite his alliance's collective lolbadness this episode he seems more intelligent than most players left in the game. With a merge imminent, he looks to be one of the strongest physical competitors. In addition, he is aligned with one of the biggest threats in the game - Brenda - and she's always being targetted instead of him.

2. Marty: If Jud flips, Marty might have a chance of prying Kelly S. away from Sash/Brenda and regaining the numbers. If we assume there'll be a merge at 10, then Marty going before then would require either a massive blunder on his part or La Flor losing two of the next three challenges AND no shift in alliances occurring.

3. Brenda: Take what I said about Sash, tone it down slightly and remove the last sentence and you have Brenda.

4. Benry: Flying UTR, seems to be in good with everyone, and will perform well in challenges without being a visible target for the time being.

5. Kelly S.: She cannot win; her invisibility for SIX straight episodes confirms that. However, she's the most likely to make it far by virtue of the fact that she has no real enemies and is the least threatening player in the game.

P.S. I'm not sure why there are so many haters of this season. We're only 2/3 of the way to the merge and already we've had two of the best TCs of all time, and the cast has a lot of big characters in it (Marty, Jud, Sash, Brenda, NaOnka, Jane etc.)

EDIT: This is assuming they merge at 10. The producers definitely need to either have a 7-person jury or merge at 12; it's unfair for people to have to go in front of jurors with whom they may only have interacted at challenges.

EDIT 2: vyk, where are you finding all of these secret scenes etc? Obv. there are the clips on the CBS website, but stuff like Yve talking to Marty in Spanish isn't featured there IIRC. Awkwardly, CBS seems to have uploaded the Espada voting confessionals but not the La Flor ones ;/

Last edited by SavageTilt; 10-21-2010 at 05:21 PM.
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Old 10-21-2010, 05:14 PM   #1935
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Well, you only need 4 to make that person have more votes than marty, voting for 2 separate people makes it more likely you select the correct person to give an extra vote to.
yup. Definately agree with this.

I haven't watched every season (just the last 4). Was this one of the top 5 dumbest moves in history?

I also don't understand Marty not playing the idol after what Brenda said at the tribal. I mean he couldn't possibly think that he'd survive a tie with an idol and it was clear they were gunning for him..
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Old 10-21-2010, 05:23 PM   #1936
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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yup. Definately agree with this.

I haven't watched every season (just the last 4). Was this one of the top 5 dumbest moves in history?

I also don't understand Marty not playing the idol after what Brenda said at the tribal. I mean he couldn't possibly think that he'd survive a tie with an idol and it was clear they were gunning for him..
Not sure about top 5, but I would definitely place it in the top 10.

You have to consider the possibility that Brenda was trying to orchestrate a fight at TC precisely so that Marty would play the idol when he didn't need to.
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Old 10-21-2010, 05:48 PM   #1937
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I think this gif is a good summary of the LaFlor tribal council last night

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Old 10-21-2010, 05:56 PM   #1938
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Not sure about top 5, but I would definitely place it in the top 10.

You have to consider the possibility that Brenda was trying to orchestrate a fight at TC precisely so that Marty would play the idol when he didn't need to.
Number 1 is James going home with 2 idols then what?.

I just curious so I can try to find youtube clips..
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Old 10-21-2010, 06:11 PM   #1939
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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What is better? To use the idol, or to go home and end any chance you have at potentially winning? I sure enought after Brenda's terrible speech would have used it, because if it wasn't for the idiots playing the game, and I would even say if Marty was on his old tribe and had it gone down exactly the same, the other tribe full of young people would have booted Marty in the re-vote. Marty got extremely, extremely lucky last night, and even he knows it. But had he not played the idol, everyone would be calling Marty a even bigger idiot for going home when he had the idol, much like previous Survivor castmembers who have had a idol in the past and not used it.
I like how you call Brenda's speech "terrible," then immediately go on to say you would have fallen for it hook, line, and sinker. If it's a terrible speech, that doesn't say much for you as a Survivor strategist as you would have burned the idol for zero gain.

Clearly Brenda's speech was designed to get Marty to use the idol even though he wasn't the one actually going home. If Marty is as good as he claims to be, then he probably figured this out. The speech may be the very reason he didn't use the idol. It's also possible Fabio simply told him KB was going home.

In any case it's extremely difficult, by process or results, to call not playing the idol a mistake.

I'm really not sure why they sent KB home. But I have a theory by scenes from next week:

Spoiler:


One thing is clear to me. Brenda is the sharpest on this season with Marty and Jill close behind. I also like Jane as a wild card. The new La Fluer is awesome
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Old 10-21-2010, 06:18 PM   #1940
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Why are so many people itt giving Sash a pass on keeping Marty but crucifying Brenda for it?
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Old 10-21-2010, 06:21 PM   #1941
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Number 1 is James going home with 2 idols then what?.

I just curious so I can try to find youtube clips..
Eric giving away his idol and then getting voted out.
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Old 10-21-2010, 06:30 PM   #1942
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

My top 10 dumbest moves: the China F7 in general is at the top, followed by Leann publicly kicking Scout out of the F4 alliance (S9), Erik giving up immunity (S16), Tyson voting for Parvati (S20), Brandon voting for Kelly (S3), Candice flipping twice and effectively conceding won games both times (S13, S20), Lex not voting out Amber (S8), Russell voting out the only people he can possibly beat in two consecutive seasons (S19, S20), the LaFlor cluster**** we've been discussing since last night, and Courtney not voting out Todd at F4. You probably can't watch many of these on YouTube, but w/e.

I don't count Colby taking Tina or Ian stepping down because they both valued friendship/whatever more than the game; all the moves above were made by people trying to improve their position in the game and hopelessly failing.

P.S. Anyone trying to include Rafe voting out Lydia can GTFO
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Old 10-21-2010, 06:40 PM   #1943
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Russell's mistake was being a massive douche both times.
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Old 10-21-2010, 07:04 PM   #1944
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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My top 10 dumbest moves: the China F7 in general is at the top, followed by Leann publicly kicking Scout out of the F4 alliance (S9), Erik giving up immunity (S16), Tyson voting for Parvati (S20), Brandon voting for Kelly (S3), Candice flipping twice and effectively conceding won games both times (S13, S20), Lex not voting out Amber (S8), Russell voting out the only people he can possibly beat in two consecutive seasons (S19, S20), the LaFlor cluster**** we've been discussing since last night, and Courtney not voting out Todd at F4. You probably can't watch many of these on YouTube, but w/e.

I don't count Colby taking Tina or Ian stepping down because they both valued friendship/whatever more than the game; all the moves above were made by people trying to improve their position in the game and hopelessly failing.

P.S. Anyone trying to include Rafe voting out Lydia can GTFO
I assume you mean Danielle and not Jerri. Jerri was the heavy favorite in the F4. She might have 9-0'd that jury. But I actually think his getting rid of Danielle was a good move, if Danielle is to be believed. She said Russell was for sure next had she not gone that week.

Booting Jaison should quite possibly be higher on the list. And thank you for not including JT giving the idol to Russell. It was obv a bad play, but nowhere near the ones you listed.
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Old 10-21-2010, 07:10 PM   #1945
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Russell's mistake was being a massive douche both times.
Are we still saying that Russell convincingly loses to Shambo/Jaison in Samoa and Candice/Danielle/whoever? in HvV? (he probably still does in HvV)

Which survivor winner do you guys think got away with being a massive douche? (as far as jury votes do) maybe Brian Heidik? .... who else?

They need to bring back F2, so the massive douches have a better chance to win if they drag along the right goat (it allowed Fairplay to come within the last tribal council of taking on the goat in the finals for a cool million)
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Old 10-21-2010, 07:16 PM   #1946
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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My top 10 dumbest moves: the China F7 in general is at the top, followed by Leann publicly kicking Scout out of the F4 alliance (S9), Erik giving up immunity (S16), Tyson voting for Parvati (S20), Brandon voting for Kelly (instead of Lex) (S3), Candice flipping twice and effectively conceding won games both times (S13, S20), Lex not voting out Amber (S8), Russell voting out the only people he can possibly beat in two consecutive seasons (S19, S20), the LaFlor cluster**** we've been discussing since last night, and Courtney not voting out Todd at F4. You probably can't watch many of these on YouTube, but w/e.

I don't count Colby taking Tina or Ian stepping down because they both valued friendship/whatever more than the game; all the moves above were made by people trying to improve their position in the game and hopelessly failing.

P.S. Anyone trying to include Rafe voting out Lydia can GTFO
THIS

f*ck Lex
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Old 10-21-2010, 07:16 PM   #1947
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Are we still saying that Russell convincingly loses to Shambo/Jaison in Samoa and Candice/Danielle/whoever? in HvV? (he probably still does in HvV)
I'm convinced that jury was just super bitter toward Russell and would have voted for anyone but him.
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Old 10-21-2010, 07:18 PM   #1948
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

kart: I was referring to Danielle and Candice, although what you're saying re. Danielle makes sense. If Russell had suddenly become perfectly rational at F4 he would have realised that he was drawing dead and voted out Sandra so that Parv could get the cash (assuming he would prefer her over Jerri of course).

Voting out Shambo and Jaison was terrible. The only possible rationale I can think of for keeping Natalie was as insurance in case the FIC was something balance-based, but if Natalie makes the FTC she wins anyway, so that's not even relevant. My list isn't in any particular order aside from China at the top (since that China TC involved arguably the biggest individual blunder as well as 3-4 other Top 20 blunders), because all moves worthy of a spot up there tend to be game-ending in one way or another. If you think a game-losing error is worse if that person was a favourite to win, then the list should probably go Courtney, LeAnn, Candice x2 followed by the others.

One move that I forgot that should be on there is Ken pointlessly voting for Matty at F7. Gabon would have been so much better if Ken had won

vyk: The problem with the F2 is that it generally results in the best player in a season having a >1/3 chance of going home (since it's almost impossible to be in a position where each of your opponents takes you to F2 and still loses to you): Rob C., JFP, Rafe (<3) etc.

Last edited by SavageTilt; 10-21-2010 at 07:28 PM.
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Old 10-21-2010, 08:43 PM   #1949
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Soncy View Post
Problems with this idea include, but are probably not limited to: Ben thinks he's aligned with Chase and vice versa. Ben could only be sure of Alina's loyalty, if that--she hasn't been knocking my socks off with her good decisions. Alina might be more interested in being 'in' with the cool people rather than making moves which benefit her in this game--verdict is still out. There might be a little danger he gets found out if Chase convinces Dan that the target is Holly--and it may well be, following the same logic as this week, and Dan rats Ben out for wanting to target Chase. Also, despite her recent reasonableness, Holly really isn't that stable. Relying on her to do something important involves significant risk. If Ben, Alina, and Holly all vote for Chase and Chase, Naonka, and Dan all vote for Holly is the tie breaker fire building and how burned are those bridges?
Chase doesn't think he's aligned with Benry, he had a confessional this week saying the only person in his tribe he trusts is NaOnka. Benry may or may not think he's aligned with Chase but if he's not braindead he's knows he's at the bottom of the totem pole in the Minority/PK alliance. Maybe it's a gamble, but oh well, he and Alina are both done if they don't pull it off, and there is some chance or rehabbing the relationship if it fails. Chase will DEFINITELY not pick Benry/Alina over brenda/sash. Benry may or may not trust Alina, but he literally has no choice but to trust her, because he has no one else besides Fabio maybe. He has no idea where Marty/Jill are going to fall on the other side, but certainly has no reason to believe they will be with him.

I also think Benry/Alina are going to be more convincing to Holly/Dan then Chase/Nay and that's assuming Chase/Nay even catch on. Dan will just be thrilled it's not him.
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Old 10-21-2010, 08:51 PM   #1950
Soncy
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Nucleon View Post

Getting rid of the idol takes a huge target off of your back immediatley.

Again would you rather still be in the game with atleast a shot of winning it, or totally gone with zero percent chance at winning?

What I find more funny is that you actually think that he had any odds of staying after Brenda's speech, and deciding to not play the idol would even be a smart move. Like I said if you weren't playing against a bunch of idiots he would surely have been gone! But he was playing with a tribe that didn't understand strategety. It was all LUCK that he stayed. Nothing more! There was zero skill, and thought in how that tribal went down, and was just a bunch of people who felt threatend by a woman who they think they couldn't beat at the end.

He may have been closer to Jerri then what you think, but as a viewer you don't get to see everything. Only 45 minutes from a 72 hour period. He may have knew he had great odds of being able to sway her from his conversations with her.
AND, if you are still in the game, you still have the chance to make a move. You can find another idol. You have more information with which to try to make new alliances. You appear significantly less threatening.

Also, I always think people in Fabio's position have the idea that flushing the idol is a good thing even though alligning with the idol could be next best. Ultimately, Fabio wants the idol. If the idol is put back into play, he has a shot to get it. Is he thinking critically about this...not likely. I think he is mostly listening to Sash say they have a plan to flush the idol and thinking, "Yeah, {drool} flush the idol. Good idea." Still, once it's gone, he may look at Marty thinking he seems less scarey now.

Also, if Russell thinks he can't sway Jerri or someone else, what is the point in taking a risk to himself in order to attempt to save Parv? He, Parv, and Danielle aren't going to vote anyone out by themselves anyway. So either, Russell had some idea he could make a move if Tyson was stupid enough to vote himself out, OR, he was simply content to fall on his sword in order to save Parv. Also, in Russell's case, I believe he had a reasonable expectation that Tyson might do something looney. After all, Russell had planted a seed. And Russell always expects his seeds to produce fruit.

In Marty's case, you have to be extremely results oriented to say that it was reasonable for him to not use the idol with the way things went down at TC. However, I guess since he was so clueless about what was going on, maybe he thought his big plan of 'let's vote for Brenda together, Jane' was going to save him. I just don't see how he doesn't think he is a target and needs to take measures to ensure his safety RIGHT NOW, and worry about the fall out later. Instead, wooooooooooooooooo whooooooooo! I went all in with 72 and won the hand!!! Although, I think 72 probably has more EV than Marty could expect to have had in not using the idol.
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