He doesn't necessarily need to have tons of allies yet. If we assume post-merge will be mostly kids, it'll split somewhere, and two groups will form. Who can we expect to be the dominant "alliance builders" out of the nine of them? I'd expect it to be Sash, Brenda(+Chase), and Benry. Alina is a possibility, but I feel like she's a bit more passive, and I wouldn't be surprised if she teamed up with Benry. They could then get KB, Holly, Yve, and any remaining oldies to join up with them.

I have Sash #1, and it's because of that Brenda+Chase+NaOnka+Purple alliance...but that alliance is the exact reason Benry is in a good spot. The remaining players will try to take down that alliance, and Benry is the most likely player to build that counter-alliance.

but the stuff we do see is what we make our end game assumptions from

your natalie correlation in respect to benry just makes no sense in that regard

Having not watched any additional scenes - serious question. Which one is Benry?

You do realize that everything you posted is based on assumptions and nothing actually factual or concrete (given what we have seen so far)

Your assumption that he will be key in a counter-alliance has the same validity as the chance of him being the 6th wheel in the majority alliance

wow watching FvF again reminds meof how much i hated Chet...

chet>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>nay

Nay>chet imo. Nay would of helped blindside Ozzy before quitting. that would be awesome

Based on what you've seen, do you think he's going to be the 6th wheel in the majority alliance? I mean, he went to Espada and already has espoused some sort of power. It's hard to imagine he'd want a lower role after the merge.

Uhh what? The challenge where chet and joel were tied tohether is GOAT material.

Chet: ''I hit my head back there.''
Joel: ''I don't care.''
Chet: ''I know.''

lolol

No. The odds of Benry and Purple Kelly leading an alliance are not the same. Neither have received much air time, but Benry is obviously a hundred times more likely to be a dominant alliance leader.

I realize Benry has been quiet (due to editing?) so far, but you seem to think he's been completely invisible, which I disagree with. His tribemates have relied on him as *the main guy* in multiple challenges, he was the swing-ish vote in the Shannon boot, and we got a nice "Benry's here, baby!" as he cast his vote this week. Those are not things a meek, invisible, Brett-esque follower would do.

"In both Panama and Cook Islands, the player with the idol was required to show the idol after the votes were read to become immune. If the idol holder had received the most number of votes, the player with the next largest number of votes was then immediately voted out. If the idol holder was tied with the most votes with another player, that player was also immediately voted out. This rule has never happened."

From wiki, so during these season players with the hidden idol would wait till all the names were read? my god that is ridonkulous

I'm shocked some of you are so high on Sash. He's been invisible for a few weeks. He's seems like a smart dude and is in a good position but I can't imagine him winning and getting this little amount of airtime. Sandra and Nat were semi invisible but in almost all the premerge episodes they both got a few tidbits. I'd be tempted to put Chase higher than him mainly for that sob story he told last episode. Reminded me of Natalie catching the rat.

JRB was probably 2nd or 3rd alternate on HVV. No way they would've taken him over Shane.

I think Survivor made the best choice by going with Russell who is in the top 5 to ever play the game. Not to mention that this was his only opportunity to try to win it, since the cast didn't know what he was like outside of Parvati.

People will gun for Russell to be out instantly from any future season he is on, because contestants know how lethal he is. Producers also really helped Russell on Heroes vs Villians too though.

I don't think you can really compare ASS seasons to regular ones in terms of editing, as they don't have to "introduce" the players as much. Natalie was pretty invisible (I feel like we should stop using this word because it means different things to different people) in Samoa, though so was pretty much everyone but Russell.

I don't know...I'm trying to not buy into the edgic stuff too much just because I think people see what they want to see. If Player X wins, we can go back and pinpoint times when he/she was visible; if they lose, we ignore those examples. Had Natalie been the first post-merge boot in Samoa, we would have said she was invisible. If memory serves, she was certainly less visible than, for example, Ashley.

The Chase thing was a bit odd. However, Brenda did call him clueless ten minutes into this season, and I feel like that's not the way they would introduce the eventual winner.

OK

You put him at #2 most likely to win after episode 5, which I highly disagree with and here is why:
-Besides this episode he has been INVISIBLE with about 1 confessional in the first 4 episodes, his role is obviously more amplified after the switch
-We are talking about having the best chance to win, not go deep, which made UTR type players tend to do after being perceived as non-threats
-He is outside the core young 5, which is validated with the countless "My solid 5 are me, Nay, Brenda, Chase, and Sash" and vice versa from each of the 5 when they get screen time
-He has only been shown to be close with 2 people so far in the game; Chase who is tied down to Brenda since episode 2 and Fabio, who is providing the comedic relief
-We have no indication that he orchestrated Tyrone's boot. Tyrone was already getting on everyone's nerves with his obstinance and anti-social behavior at camp, heck even Yve turned on him. Chase or Holly could easily be the ones running things at camp
-He has no hidden immunity idols, nor is he close to anyone that has a hidden immunity idol
-He will have a huge target on his back as an immunity threat if he makes it to the merge (since he has been dominant in team challenges)
-We have not seen him talk/socialize/strategize with anyone on the older tribe, let alone everyone on the younger tribe outside Chase and Fabio

I mean it's a process of deductive logic using the hindsight and experience from previous seasons that showcases that Benry doesn't have the edit or strategical positioning to be a winner

Heck, you know how much I love to spam this thread with gifs. Realize that even I have failed to find anything noteworthy of Benry in these first 5 episodes to make a gif bomb of; except maybe, a brief scene of him being clumsy at TC last episode

THIS

This quote is gold Kos. I have a strong feeling that CBS wouldn't edit their winner as "clueless, smitten, and wishy-washy" as he has been described so far.

The whole sob story about his father makes me reconsider though.

Sorry, but I guess I really just don't try to read things into the editing, or at least not as much as others. I feel like the whole edgic thing is pretty inaccurate, as it's 99% open to interpretation and opinions. My view is: Benry is more likely to lead an alliance than most of the other kids, and he's doing a great job of hiding his douchiness. Therefore, I like him as a potential winner. I may be analyzing things more from the Probst seat than the viewer's seat, but I can't help it.

Going deep isn't the same as winning. After 5 weeks of FvF, it was easy to see that Natalie wasn't winning. Just like it was easy to see that Brett wasn't winning Samoa. Just like it's easy to see that Kelly Shinn isn't winning Nicaragua.

sick observation

This cast may go down as one of the weakest as far as memorable and interesting characters.

Na is one of the most memorable female ******* characters, but outside of her I sort of agree with you. Marty is just trying to be another Russell.

Grunching

Did anybody else hate the editing of the most recent episode? I mean they really think we're going to believe nanoka is going to get up and leave with an idol in pocket and what's his name got booted for eating too much chicken? Gmafb, it was an old/young thing, pure and simple

My picks:

1. Jill - Her position seems precarious, but I'm not ready to give up on her yet.
2. Brenda - she still has three of her original alliance, and Jane is looking to flip. It all depends on if she can survive Marty.
3. Alina - She seems in a much better position now, so I feel I have to move her up the list.
4. Marty - Again, precarious, but I do believe this guy has game. I still kinda doubt his ability to get the votes in the end, but I can't let him drop out of my top 5 yet.
5. Benry - This is probably a stupid choice. I can't see people not targeting him ASAP once a merge happens. But I like his position on his new tribe. And he definately could win if he can get there.

Jane is my sleeper. She seems the non-threatening, float to the win, type.

Obviously, my Jill/Marty picks are diametrically opposed to my Brenda pick. Either of those three could be targeted the first time Yellow has to go to TC. And at this point, I really have no idea what will happen when Yellow goes to TC. The Jill/Marty team was in such a good positon prior to this tribe mix up. And Marty is very crafty. So I have a very difficult time letting them slip out of my line up even tho I kinda dont like their position right this minute. I think Jill could win if she can get to the end, and I think Marty might be able to get her to the end. Unfortunately, I also think they could go one and two if Yellow goes to TC.

Brenda has a lot of allies on both sides, so she is an easy pick. But again, she could be in danger if Marty builds a new power base.

I feel Alina and Benry got the best of the tribe mix up. They are moving for control of their new tribe. I sort of like their positions. Alina plays things pretty cool and tries to make a lot of connections with people. I like what she's doing right now.

Benry seems to be in a pretty good spot right now, but will certainly be seen as a huge threat post merge and I feel his stock could quickly plummet at that time.

Jane could float to the win. I used to think Yve had a shot at this as well, but her new position following the tribe switch seems a lot worse than Jane's.

I was surprised Sash got so much love by the other pickers. Being gay and all, he's probably a lock. But I don't feel like he's gotten enough face time for me to throw my lot in with him just yet. His position is okay, and his game play has been okay. Yet, I hesitate. Can't explain it.

Chase could win if he made it to the end. I just don't like his chances. He will be a post merge threat. I think he alligns with the wrong people. And he's too nice. No. Good for him, if he does, but I just can't believe it.

I like Fabio. The goofball makes me laugh. I'm on the same page as the guy who mentioned an ice cream scooper Eric flame out for Fabio.

I'll post some comments about secret scenes later.

Listening to the pokercast as I type this post. I guess I love Vicky Coren. Funny lady.

Brenda (I think) said in a confessional that they'll split the votes on Marty/Jill to get round the idol; they can get Jud/whoever to flip, but if Brenda is clever she'll flip her vote to whichever side of the split contains the most likely defector. The problem is that Jill is practically guaranteed to go before Marty, and so they only have to lose one challenge for Jill to be on the chopping block (unless they can do the above).

Also, according to disreputable sources (Sucks), NaOnka is dating Dreamz O_O