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Old 09-25-2010, 02:09 AM   #976
Kirbynator
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

until what you think is the last tribal
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Old 09-25-2010, 02:12 AM   #977
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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until what you think is the last tribal
Yes that is the only way use it correctly. But you could end up screwing yourself depending if the producers decide to do a three person finale or two.
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Old 09-25-2010, 02:25 AM   #978
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Yes that is the only way use it correctly. But you could end up screwing yourself depending if the producers decide to do a three person finale or two.
The medallion is only tribal, it does nothing after the merge.
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Old 09-25-2010, 02:32 AM   #979
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by kartinken View Post
The medallion is only tribal, it does nothing after the merge.
I don't think you understood my point. The best way to use the medallion is if you can use it right before the merge. But because Survivor has two different finale scenarios you could screw it up by using it one round to early, and losing any gain you aquired from using it.

And if you are a big player in the game or are one of the more athletic players they may take that opportunity to boot you.
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Old 09-25-2010, 03:00 AM   #980
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

keep one eye on her and one eye on my shoes!

epic season so far............
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Old 09-25-2010, 03:02 AM   #981
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I'm rewatching FTC. I don't know how much we miss by the editing and how much the editing shapes what we end up believing about what went down, but here's my recap and what I think about the epic FTC.

Probst asks Shannon the seemingly innocuous question: "How much more difficult has this adventure been than you anticipated?"

Shannon's answer starts off reasonable enough, citing that he's never been camping and these conditions suck, but that he was starting to get more used to it. Camera pans to Benry and Fabio smiling and laughing in what appears to be camaraderie. So far so good, Shannon. But then, things start to go awry. He says, "It's been interesting, we've had people say we were all together, but I'm coming to find out that there is no loyalty. (cut to Chase with a wry smile on his face) We'll see. He better hope his girlfriend stays with him on this tribe tonight because if not, he'll be going home next." (cut to Probst having his mind blown by not having to pull teeth and fingernails for 90 minutes to get to the nitty gritty).

This is looking like your classic blow up. I'm not sure why some people can't help but push a self destruct button when they find themselves in a difficult spot. But I think that's what happened here. Even if his fate was sealed before they got to TC, THIS is why it was sealed. If you are in a delicate spot, say walking through a minefield or whatever, trying to bull your way out of the situation is pretty much a guaranteed loser strategy. It takes finesse. Shannon has none. Maybe his words at TC sealed his fate, maybe it actually started back at camp, but I find it very hard to believe that Shannon was handling his position with aplomb at any point in time.

I mean, you got a guy lying to half the tribe about what he intends to do and who he is with, and a guy being really straightforward about who he is alligned with and what he intends to do and the straightforward guy is the one being painted as the untrustworthy villain. He's a hothead neanderthal, yes. But he's been very upfront with his actions. Can he make that case for himself? No. He's a troglodyte. Instead he makes a threat he can't even enforce and kind of ends up throwing himself and pretty much anyone who chooses to continue to side with him under the bus. Let me continue.

Chase with s-eating grin admits, "He's talking about me." Probst, "Whose your girlfriend?" Chase gesturing at Brenda, "I guess he's talking about Brenda. She's not my girlfriend. From day one, I've trusted Brenda and Ben." (I don't know if Chase intended it or not, but I'd wager this was like throwing gas on the fire as I think Shannon was very sincere when he tried to allign with Chase, and Chase acted like he was for it when obivously he was not.)

Shannon raises hand: "Can I say why it's like this. It's because I thought Chase had my back and I thought we were there, and we're not and it kinda pisses me off." (cut to Benry looking thoughtful and frowny) "I mean all you had to do is be honest with me and say you were with her and it would have been all good."

Chase: "I'm coming out with the truth. I've been between two alliances the whole time (cut to Shannon rolling his eyes followed by what appears to be him looking over at Ben perhaps as if to say 'I told you so'?) And before we came out here, I was very very unsure about who I wanted to vote for to be honest. Whether I wanted to vote for Shannon, or that I'd vote off Brenda. I mean that's as honest as you can get." (cut to me laughing at him finishing that spiel by calling himself honest)

Shannon then makes a fantastic point about Chase going on about his integrity, loyalty, and honesty, asking where has it been because he's been lying and going both ways. Point goes to the caveman.

Probst makes a joke about whoop ass and everyone laughs and the mood lightens a little. Shannon: "I just want to let everyone know how upset I am because I gave my word that I'd stick with Chase and our six that we had all the way to the end."

Jud raises his hand and tries to get the raging bull to calm down and quit being so aggressive and making enemies. (Maybe everyone already knows exactly where the lines are, but I'm not sure I'd be picking this point to raise my hand and and volunteer myself as one of the six Shannon is speaking of. I'm thinking I'd be more like the rats that pile off of the sinking ship...quietly.) Ooooo, Jud finished his plea by telling Shannon he's not being smart. That's a painful burn. Still, point to Fabio on this one at least.

I think an appropriate answer to Jud would be that if Chase is really with me and the rest of us who put our trust in him, then I'm upset for no reason, and we will know that after tonight's vote. But, if I'm right and he's with Brenda, he's my enemy and nothing I say right now is going to change that.

Leave the door open for Chase to make a decision. Instead, Shannon finishes up with something like, "If he doesn't vote me out tonight, he goes next." Which is just validating Chase picking the Siren. (At least the Siren makes you feel good while sucking your soul dry.)

Probst addresses Brenda to get her take, she responds in a very calm and measured tone: "I think a certain weakness has been exposed. It's hard to trust him." Chase right on the heels: "See, nobody trusts you, bud." (I find this particular exchange to be the most delicious of the smorgasbord. It is all exquisite. Brenda's delivery. The irony of Chase's accusation and how he instantly parrots Brenda's comment. Shannon's indignation right after, asking what did he do, and calling out his alliance members by polling them about whether they trust him.) Note: during this Jud and Kelly B freely admit they trust Shannon, while Ben and Alina kind of shrug and remain silent (very prudent imo).

Basically, I don't think Shannon could bring himself to stoop to trying to be diplomatic and persuasive and give himself a shot at staying. I think he decided he was going home and was intent on going with a bang and trying to drag as many people into the muck as he went. When he turned on Sash, asking if he was gay, that kind of removed any doubt that he thought he'd be staying. Then, "New York is full of gay people." Dude was off the rails.

And let's face it. Shannon seems like a scumbag. And Chase seems like a really nice guy. And it's not like being completely upfront and honest while playing Survivor is particularly advisable, so why am I on Chase so hard for playing both sides and lying? Because he is trying to act like Mr. Good Guy. Which he technically is, but within the framework of the game, he totally wasn't. And he accused Shannon of being the untrustworthy one. So, high five to you, Chase, as long as you and I both know that Mr. Good Guy is an act in this particular instance. And once you aren't pitted against the male ShaNayany of your tribe, we will see how far the Mr. Good Guy act can fly.

Alina: "I thought I could trust Chase. Shannon hasn't said a lie to me, but Chase has." My point exactly, but perhaps ill advised to offer it at this point. Do they stick them with truth serum prior to TC? This was what I referred to in my other post on whether Alina should have switched her vote or not. She showed her cards, so I'm not sure how much her actual vote mattered. Then, Shannon throws out that Nay was the other potential target. Still, with the too much information sharing.
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Old 09-25-2010, 03:20 AM   #982
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by kartinken View Post
I'm pretty sure the medallion only exists to balance the challenges between the old and young tribe.

I actually hope they do bring it back because, as someone else already pointed out, I think it's better to get to the merge with even numbers. I also agree with Rob C. that you should always use the Medallion when given the option.
I agree with the Rob C guest that said you use it if the advantage and reward you are getting seems to merit it's use. Also, factoring in the nature of the challenge and whether you believe your tribe has the skills/stamina/whatever is needed to be competitive without the spot.

I'm thinking worst case scenario is using the MOP and losing the challenge anyway. (Which is what I believe would have happened had they used the MOP on the first challenge.)

If I'm wrong about this, and it is in fact correct to use the MOP every time, then I don't love it's existence. If there is some skill in determining when it is best to use the MOP or not, then I like it.
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Old 09-25-2010, 03:29 AM   #983
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

By using it you still could likely hurt your team more then not unless you are doing it for reward challenges if you are on the older team. The older team is already at a disadvantage, but going up against a team that already has better odds at winning the challenge, and then giving them more power that will likely lead to you losing one of your teammates isn't a smart move if you are playing to have the numbers.
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Old 09-25-2010, 09:17 AM   #984
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Not quite sure why 'should the tribe use the medallion?' is a question at all when the need/desire to use it is obviously one based in individual need. If you're in trouble in your tribe's social culture, you should obviously want to use it; if you're not (unless your vote will have nasty political consequences) in trouble, you should want to keep it for when you are.
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Old 09-25-2010, 10:20 AM   #985
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Easy call for the old tribe to use it when you can win reward/immunity. I like the fact that they didn't use it in the first challenge since it was even money. Last challenge was pretty even since it was basically all about who could shoot the ball in the bucket and the old tribe had a huge advantage by having a black guy play for their team.
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Old 09-25-2010, 10:39 AM   #986
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Chilltown View Post
Easy call for the old tribe to use it when you can win reward/immunity. I like the fact that they didn't use it in the first challenge since it was even money. Last challenge was pretty even since it was basically all about who could shoot the ball in the bucket and the old tribe had a huge advantage by having a black guy play for their team.
+1

i think you take the medalion on a challenge to challenge basis with the goal to use it right before the merge if possible. adjusting base off if there is reward and how much the challenge helps. also adjusting if you are in trouble that week, you obviously try to push for its use.
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Old 09-25-2010, 11:19 AM   #987
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Last challenge was pretty even since it was basically all about who could shoot the ball in the bucket and the old tribe had a huge advantage by having a black guy play for their team.
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Old 09-25-2010, 04:11 PM   #988
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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LOL at #14 using their double on NaOnka.

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Originally Posted by ArcticKnight View Post
I know I've been on this rant before, but am I the only one that thinks that vote-changing occurs AT tribal almost.........never...
The only time I can ever even remember it happening was last year when Russell switched the F7 vote to Danielle. I might be forgetting another time, and I'm obviously not counting times where one person is stuck in the middle and debates which side to choose (ex. Jerri booting Rob over Russell), but I think you're right that a player completely changing their vote at TC pretty much never happens.
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Old 09-25-2010, 04:15 PM   #989
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Chilltown View Post
Easy call for the old tribe to use it when you can win reward/immunity. I like the fact that they didn't use it in the first challenge since it was even money. Last challenge was pretty even since it was basically all about who could shoot the ball in the bucket and the old tribe had a huge advantage by having a black guy play for their team.


I liked saving the medallion in the first challenge because it was less of a physical challenge and more of a mental challenge.

Using the medallion in the 2nd challenge was great because it was more physical, and helped the older tribe eliminate a part of both ends of the challenge. It wasn't even to start with at all, and if they hadn't used the medallion, they clearly would have lost since the young tribe got to the 4 balls faster than the old tribe got to 3.
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Old 09-25-2010, 06:10 PM   #990
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Here is another great gem from a Shannon post-boot interview:

http://www.realitynewsonline.com/cgi...823.art&page=2

Quote:
Shannon: Write it down so you won’t forget – when I went to Tribal Council I knew I was going home. No doubt in my mind. Chase had changed his mind. You ask any Survivor who’s been on the show, when you’re going in Tribal Council and you have a bunch of soft-assed people who can’t look you in the face, you’re going home.

Ben wouldn’t look me in the eye. Fabio was just pulling on his hair eating gummy worms and playing with his magic beans. I mean, he didn’t know what to do. They didn’t know what to do, they were so scared.

So, I wasn’t going to go out as a regular second boot, just some chump – just get blindsided. Then I would have had to take all my clothes off and throw them in the fire to make a name. Instead, I just went off on everybody and let them know how stupid they were.
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Old 09-25-2010, 06:12 PM   #991
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

lol unless cbs massively edited he clearly wasn't going.
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Old 09-25-2010, 06:35 PM   #992
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
lol unless cbs massively edited he clearly wasn't going.
Survivor Insider Transcripts from Episode 2:

http://www.survivorfever.net/s21_insider_ep2.html

Quote:
You With Me

Benry and Chase have a heart-to-heart talk about who they are voting for at Tribal Council

<shots of Brenda going in the ocean; Benry and Chase are fishing at some pond>

Benry (to Chase): This is crucial. This changes our game. What do you think? What are your thoughts?

Chase: What do you think's best for me and you, dude?

Benry: Vote Brenda.

Chase: Why's that?

Benry: Knowing we have 6 strong to where I'm not gonna go home.

Chase: What do you think about Shannon? Can you trust Shannon?

<shots of Shannon at the ocean>

Benry: For tonight I do. I hate to put you in this position.

Benry (solo): Man, things are getting crazy. Brenda, Chase, and I formed our own alliance, after having an alliance originally with Shannon. And I'm in the middle of it all. I trust Chase more than I trust Shannon. I feel like Shannon and I have a mutual understanding. We're in the same boat. We gotta sit down and figure out what we're actually gonna do.

Benry (to Chase): You don't wanna lie to Brenda? You're gonna be lying to Shannon.

Chase: I'm gonna be lying to someone anyway. (Benry says the same) You for sure with me?

Benry: 100% dude. That's why I'm asking you. We need to make a decision together.

Chase: I agree.
Benry flopped over to Chase's alliance of 5

Quote:
Tribal Council Voting

Find out what each member of the La Flor tribe said as they cast their votes for the second person voted off Survivor Nicaragua

Kelly B (Shannon): I'm sorry, but I have to save myself.

Shannon (Brenda): I don't know if it matters. I'll probably be eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches tonight.
Alina and Kelly B. were responsible for the Brenda targeting causing Shannon to agree in order to keep them happy and get rid of a big threat

When it was known that Benry was going to switch to Chase's side before TC, Kelly B. was smart enough to "save herself" by not further alienating herself and voting against Brenda who would be left i the game after voting, meanwhile Alina voted with Shannon because of a sense of loyalty while Fabio did the same because of a spell of stupidity/confusion

It is all massive editing. There is a huge pileup of footage that CBS has that they simply can't fit into the 45 minutes they get for each episode

They keep Tribal Councils exciting like that
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Old 09-25-2010, 07:22 PM   #993
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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LOL at #14 using their double on NaOnka.



The only time I can ever even remember it happening was last year when Russell switched the F7 vote to Danielle. I might be forgetting another time, and I'm obviously not counting times where one person is stuck in the middle and debates which side to choose (ex. Jerri booting Rob over Russell), but I think you're right that a player completely changing their vote at TC pretty much never happens.
I think Kelly Oneleg may have changed her vote at FTC. That, or she and Ben both changed their vote right before coming to TC because Shannon was behaving aggressively and causing tension back at camp before going to TC.

Edit: Or because they knew the writing was on the wall. I forgot about the Chase/Benry secret scene. Once Chase flips, there's no reason for anyone else to vote Brenda cause they don't have the numbers. This was why it was so stupid to ask him to vote out Brenda when they needed his vote. I renew my objection to not simply voting out NayNay, which was probably much more doable.

Last edited by Soncy; 09-25-2010 at 07:28 PM.
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Old 09-25-2010, 11:42 PM   #994
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Not quite sure why 'should the tribe use the medallion?' is a question at all when the need/desire to use it is obviously one based in individual need. If you're in trouble in your tribe's social culture, you should obviously want to use it; if you're not (unless your vote will have nasty political consequences) in trouble, you should want to keep it for when you are.
That doesn't make much sense though if you are playing it to stay another week. The tribe must decide if they are going to use it and if you are already in the minority, and on the out's, the members in power really don't care about you and will only do what they think is best for them. Using it to keep yourself in the game will only prolong your stay unless you can create a alliance and change the balance of power for another three to six days.

The young tribe is sitting in a pretty good spot now that they have the power as the older tribe no longer has the option of using it at all. They can decide to not use it here on out until a tribe mix up, or the merge to keep the older team from having a edge in the athletic department of challenges where the younger team has a one up on the other tribe.
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Old 09-26-2010, 07:31 PM   #995
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I love Rob C., but he's clearly off-base on this one. If you use the Medallion when you have a reasonable chance of winning the challenge anyway, all you're ensuring is that you lose the next time there's a challenge that you're otherwise likely to win, which is clearly -EV.

Also, the survivorfever voting confessional transcripts suggest that Benry flipped his vote as a result of TC, for those of us still arguing about it.

To kill some downtime: I have a theory that, in FvF, every time that a decision had to be taken by a fan from F6 onwards (who to vote for, who to send to Exile Island, who to take on reward challenges), they got it wrong. Partial explanation here: http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/topic/66018?page=38. Thoughts?
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Old 09-26-2010, 08:32 PM   #996
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I feel like Shannon did talk everyone into voting him off. Maybe I am wrong, but for Kelly B and Benry, it seems like they changed their votes.
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Old 09-26-2010, 10:46 PM   #997
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

The old tribe definately wants the charm/idol to pass between tribes every challenge. As it is, they are underdogs, so with idol they get the upper hand in every other challenge. Young tribe should not use it again but they probably will.
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Old 09-26-2010, 11:03 PM   #998
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I love Rob C., but he's clearly off-base on this one. If you use the Medallion when you have a reasonable chance of winning the challenge anyway, all you're ensuring is that you lose the next time there's a challenge that you're otherwise likely to win, which is clearly -EV.
Yeah. And that's not even the worst case scenario. Which is using it and losing anyway. Which I think quite possibly might have happened had the Greys used it for the first challenge. In that first challenge, I think it was correct to hypothisize that the Greys could dump water in the buckets at a rate comparable to the Pubes. And similarly that there was no predictably large advantage to youth (simply because they are young) for being able to build the puzzle faster. However, puzzles are sort of a wild card. These types of challenges are often won or lost at the puzzle stage. I'm not sure how you predict whether you have edge and how much edge or lack thereof you have. There has been several times that the person/team who won the puzzle challenge was not the person/team who had their pieces the fastest. I don't think I'd want to roll the dice on an advantage to get the pieces faster without knowing if I was going to get smoked so badly in puzzle building that it didn't matter that I had the pieces first. Or alternately, my team might be the better puzzle builder and I'd have wasted the power gaining edge I didn't need.

Anyway, I guess I was in the Phil Hellmuth camp of wait for the bigger edge/better spot instead of getting it in right here with what might have been a slight edge...but I'm not even sure of that.
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Old 09-26-2010, 11:50 PM   #999
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Yeah. And that's not even the worst case scenario. Which is using it and losing anyway. Which I think quite possibly might have happened had the Greys used it for the first challenge. In that first challenge, I think it was correct to hypothisize that the Greys could dump water in the buckets at a rate comparable to the Pubes. And similarly that there was no predictably large advantage to youth (simply because they are young) for being able to build the puzzle faster. However, puzzles are sort of a wild card. These types of challenges are often won or lost at the puzzle stage. I'm not sure how you predict whether you have edge and how much edge or lack thereof you have. There has been several times that the person/team who won the puzzle challenge was not the person/team who had their pieces the fastest. I don't think I'd want to roll the dice on an advantage to get the pieces faster without knowing if I was going to get smoked so badly in puzzle building that it didn't matter that I had the pieces first. Or alternately, my team might be the better puzzle builder and I'd have wasted the power gaining edge I didn't need.

Anyway, I guess I was in the Phil Hellmuth camp of wait for the bigger edge/better spot instead of getting it in right here with what might have been a slight edge...but I'm not even sure of that.
Nah, I agree with pretty much the way you broke it down brah!!!
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Old 09-27-2010, 04:37 PM   #1000
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I need my Survivor fix, Wednesday can't get here fast enough
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