This is only my second season of Survivor. Last season didn't they have two challenges an episode? Is one (like this season) standard?

they usually have a reward and an immunity challenge

first episode is almost always only immunity though and this week's challenge was immunity + reward

Originally they had Alina, Kelly B., Shannon, Benry and Jud. If we assume Chase doesn't flip, that leaves Sash, Kelly S. and NaOnka. Sash and NaOnka want to preserve the racist ban alliance (although we're shown footage of Sash trying to convince Chase to boot Brenda, so...); that leaves Kelly S., whom I imagine they could flip if they wanted? I'm not sure why they didn't try; perhaps there's something I'm missing. Ultimately, if Shannon doesn't self-destruct at TC, Brenda probably goes home.

I don't think Alina and Kelly B. want to 'have the numbers' (i.e. be part of a majority alliance) at this point. They're operating well as floaters and they'd want to keep it that way, since it makes them less likely to get targetted. I think if Alina survives the next La Flor TC, she's a lock to make the merge; ditto for Kelly B.

They showed Benry like 5 times in the first 3 votes even though he was "irrelevant", so i just assumed that he'll be flipping and Shannon is being voted out.

Could be wrong though

power rankings:
1. Marty
2. Brenda
3. Kelly B.
4. Jill
5. Tyrone
6. Eve
7. Sash

basically all the potential winners I can see

8-13
Alina, Chase, Kelly S., Jud, Jane, Benry

indifferent/unlikely to win/invisible

14. Dan
15. Jimmy T
16. Jimmy J.
17. NaOnka
18. Holly

drawing dead

well Kelly S. and probably Benry should be drawing dead due to editing as well

Chase can still win, he's likeable and could dominate challenges in the clutch.

This was pretty much what I was getting at when I said Alina and legless Kelly made a mistake. I completely appreciate their thinking that Brenda was the bigger danger and therefore a better target to get rid of. But the fact that she was a bigger danger should have been given more attention. They may not have known where everyone stood on Brenda, but they knew where Chase stood. And the reason why Brenda is a bigger danger is because she can sway votes her way. Shanaynay is going to have a hard time swaying votes her way. Get rid of her and target Brenda when the numbers are more in your favor and you don't have as many question marks out there.

The problem is girls see a prettier, smarter, more charming girl and immediately must get rid of her unless they are besties. Alpha males do the same thing where if they aren't 100% allied then they are gunning for each other. If you don't have 100% of the vote locked up, longterm it's best to vote out the weaker less charming one's and then attack the stronger more persuasive one's later. However, in practice people get tunnel vision and try to win the entire game on one vote.

You can't automatically assume Brenda's being targetted because of jealousy, that's narrow-minded. It's usually ******ed for alpha males to target each other, because then they get blindsided themselves, but the same is not true of the females; alpha females are dangerous precisely because they can go UTR and take control of the game without becoming a target. That's why everybody correctly targeted Parvati HvV, and why JT was sensible to get rid of Cirie: players like that typically don't suffer the same fate as people like Ozzy/Marcus/Brendan/Erik/JT, and it was only after they wrought havoc on their respective seasons that people realised that they have to be removed ASAP.

Voting out Brenda instead of NaOnka still hurts the minority alliance, but removes the most threatening player on the tribe at the same time. Furthermore, Alina/Amputee carried out the plan suboptimally and it still probably would have worked had Shannon not acquired Level 90 ******ation at Tribal Council. Targetting Brenda was clearly the play this week imo.

The best play for who? The only player I can think of that voting off Brenda this vote is a great idea is Kelly since it deflects attention away from her. Naonka is clearly drawing dead but at the same time she going to have absolutely no loyalty to an alliance that has Judd or Shannon in it. If there's a mix up in tribes early then she's a HUGE liability.

The best play for Alina/Amputee, since they were the ones who attempted to bring about Brenda's demise. Brenda seems to be savvy enough that, in the event of a mixup, she will flip if it benefits her, whereas NaOnka is clueless. Obviously it's not good for Jud to have NaOnka still around, but he's not the one who's making any of these moves, and so it doesn't help much to evaluate it from his perspective.

If there is a swap, it might be better to be with Brenda than NaOnka if you're in a minority, since Brenda is a bigger threat, but the majority won't know that and Brenda is very persuasive and flirtatious, so you'd be screwed either way unless you could find a fault line in the majority alliance.

I'd be interested to see what Kos/Kart have to say about this.

I'm not actually big on targeting the big threats early. I'm big on tribe unity for the first several tribals. I would targeting NaOnka for that reason alone. I think you should always get rid of the troublemakers/dividers first.

I think targeting Brenda was a terrible play particularly when you know on of your critical votes is sweet on her.

I feel like I'm the favorite to win. 7/10/13 scare me though.

yeah i'm also in favor of keeping the tribe strong (over getting rid of the big threats early). the best way to stay in the game is to never go to tribal council. obviously as you get closer to the merge, the strategy changes, but that's my philosophy.

Yve very attractive for being over 40 She is my winner

I am going to quote Shannon from his verified comments on survivorsucks.com (which is a forum whose posters are predominantly women or homosexuals)

shannon: "I went for her (Brenda) cause the 2 girls in the alliance wanted her out!!! If we didn't go with our girls they would have left us after that vote then what!?! 3 more days of dealing with the young and brainless!! F*ck it. Here's another thing I shouldn't say but I knew I was going home I mean come on they changed their votes right before we walked in to tribal!! Otherwise I would have sat there like a robot and voted!"

He confirms that editing did not show that his fate was sealed before Tribal Council. Benry, who was and continues to be invisible in the episode and TC, switched to Brenda's side and Kelly B. was smart enough to switch her vote as well, in order to not further alienate herself in the minority. Alina was just really loyal to Shannon while Jud is just completely clueless (but very entertaining), "I guess this is still the plan????".

Shannon did not cost himself by opening his mouth, he only wanted to go out with a bang, for the sake of ratings and excitement.

Here is a transcript from Shannon's recent interview:

http://blog.zap2it.com/frominsidethe...community.html

I am not saying the guy is a good player, but he isn't nearly in the category of WOAT. He tried a power move to get rid of Brenda (who has the mold of a Parvati 2.0) and the capability to go UTR and take control of the game down the line. If that works, in a vacuum, it is seen as a great decision. It obviously backfired and he had a lot of other safer options such as taking out NaOnka and dealing with Brenda after he had the numbers.

Good thing we have a lot of other crazy/entertaining people left in the game, so this season should keep going strong.

/rant

Shannon is WOAT. LOL at trying a big move 6 days in. And watch the voting, Benry said he was voting for Brenda, but clearly Shannon is awful for the tribe.

No idea how the black girl didn't get voted out... now i have to watch another week of her... she is the dumbest person on that tribe besides Fabio, so lol epic battle between them next week?

1) who brings $1600 shoes on Survivor and then tells everyone what they cost?

2) Holly be crazy

3) Shanaynay is good TV but damn do I hate her. And Fabio, go get your socks back!

4) Best line was Tyrones' "I'm going to be watching her (Holly) with oner eye and my shoes with the other."

5) Epic Tribal Council meltdown from Shannon.

Man, I love Survivor.

I think that you are thinking a little bit too much on the narrow side and place too much importance in the shot run results.

Here is a good example in HvsV:
-downfall of Steph/Tom/Colby alliance by failure to make a power move early and settling on Sugar with the group (remember Sugar wanted Amanda gone)
-failed targeting of Parvati early in the 3rd episode (she goes and the Rob/Sandra/Courtney/Tyson is instantly in the driver's seat)

I am not a Shannon nuthugger or defender by any means, I just want to say that his WOAT status is blown out of proportion. His tribal blowup was premeditated as he knew that the numbers did not fall into place.

Just my 2cents

I wish I didn't know that. I prefer to think he's just a giant nippled dumb douche.

His nipples aren't that BIG

lol. Shannon had 5 people including himself. Chase moves over if they pick someone besides Brenda, thats 6 and a win. NO REASON to try to make this big move.

Colby/Steph/Tom/Sugar makes 4 and they still don't win. Colby did pretty good in the game by his finish anyways.

The Villains had it perfect but Tyson messed it up. All big moves early fail, egos get in the way and it is so funny how bad Shannon is at this game.

I think Espada made the right move by using the Medallion of Power at the immunity/reward challenge. Had they lost that, they'd be in the hole by two on numbers right off the bat, plus La Flor would've received a tarp.

Initially, I was hesitant about their choice of fishing gear over the tarp, but apparently Jimmy T. is a fisherman by profession! That caught me a bit off guard.

what a great episode and great tribal council. lol young people going nuts because there aren't any old people to vote off.

I don't like Brenda much. I'd probably be universally hated by male viewers because I would push hard to get all the hot broads voted off asap