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Old 12-22-2010, 08:47 AM   #4976
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Soncy View Post

And I agree the dynamic was much easier to read in HvV. So much so, that I still kind of resent that Russell got rid of Danielle which I felt really harmed Parvati's chances to win while not improving his own at all. A final three of Parv, Russell, and Danielle was the best shot any of those three had of winning.
Apparently Danielle and Parvati had agreed to get rid of Russell at the next TC (according to post boot interviews), so Russell's move actually saved him.
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Old 12-22-2010, 08:50 AM   #4977
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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And why shouldn't players be more than willing to 'carry out the moves' of someone who they feel can't win votes in the end?

I agree the bolded is a skill I value, but it's hard to quantify because there are a lot of reasons a person could choose to follow another person's plan; some of which may benefit the follower more than the leader. So who should get the points then?
This is my basic arguement as to why I think had she won the FIC Jerri would have played the best game in HvV. I think she would have gotten a pretty sick edit and possibly swept the jury.
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Old 12-22-2010, 08:55 AM   #4978
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

It's weird how so many of Ken's favorites are 4th-place finishers. It's almost like the last person to be voted out frequently gets a "great gameplayer" edit.
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Old 12-22-2010, 09:29 AM   #4979
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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It's weird how so many of Ken's favorites are 4th-place finishers. It's almost like the last person to be voted out frequently gets a "great gameplayer" edit.
Jerri wasn't my favorite, I just loved her game. Holly was. I'm struggling to think of others. I assume this would mean 3rd place in seasons with a final 2. I did think Erinn was great, but not as good as JT or Stephen. Cirie was my favorite on FvF, but I don't know if that counts since they all played the game as if it were a final 3 that season. Matty was my favorite in Gabon...

Maybe it's true more than I think. I don't want to go back through all the seasons, but you may be right, it may be over half. I think one of the reasons for this is often the person who played the best game is booted at the last minute since they are such a threat for the money.
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Old 12-22-2010, 09:55 AM   #4980
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Also see: Rob C., JFP, Scout (Chris and Twila were great too though), Rafe, Cirie pt. 1
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Old 12-22-2010, 10:02 AM   #4981
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Also see: Rob C., JFP, Scout (Chris and Twila were great too though), Rafe, Cirie pt. 1
Cirie 1.0 was 4th in a final 2 season, so doesn't fit the description. Rafe does. Eliza was my favorite in Vanuatu, and Sandra was my favorite in Pearl Islands (even though JFP played the best game that season).
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Old 12-22-2010, 02:03 PM   #4982
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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How was Shambo siding with the Foas and forcing a (hypothetical) tie at F10 good for her? Russell presented it to her as "you're in our five, and we'll go to the end together" when it was really "I need you this vote and the next one, but after that, you're useless, and I'm gonna cut you loose." Granted, Galu wanted nothing to do with her, but Russell still used her as a free vote with no real intention of taking her to the end (debatable, I guess, but I think it's pretty clear he was always going to take two Foas to the FTC).
You answered your own question (see bolded). AND she was a viable take to the end for him. He probably should have in fact. AND because purples hated her, she had absolutely nothing to lose. AND she hated some of the purples and is one of those players who had other motivations than winning driving her game decisions and she could definately satisfy those motivations by siding with Russell. (I credit him for knowing that she was usable and for having a good approach with her.) But again, she was like throw me in the briar patch voting off these purples.
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Old 12-22-2010, 02:43 PM   #4983
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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This is my basic arguement as to why I think had she won the FIC Jerri would have played the best game in HvV. I think she would have gotten a pretty sick edit and possibly swept the jury.
Oddly enough I think I agree with the latter, but not the former. You can't edit things in that aren't there. I mean, I was already aware that she chose Russell because she could recognize that he was a good bus driver, but then she sat there looking out the window at the scenery and did what he and others told her. I just think there is a big difference between Sandra who actively makes an effort to know what is really going on, and Jerri who breezes in (or is summoned) for the 'here's what is going to happen' meeting.

I think Sandra is going to have a shot at wiggling off the hook if her number is coming up. I think Jerri is sitting around waiting to be cast out to sea. I think Jerri played a great game for Jerri. That's the best I can give her.

I mean, what is it do you think they are going to show us in this sick edit of yours? I already know she picked Russell on purpose. I already know she made a few good decisions for herself along the way (Candice and Danielle), but she was a like a bunny frolicking with a nest of vipers. She didn't survive it and I didn't expect her to. And I disbelieve the editors could have convinced me she played a powerful game.

Natalie played a fairly weak game, but at least her alliance consisted of a guy everyone hated and two other players who were weaker than herself. Jerri didn't have the luxury of the second half of that equation. The rest of her alliance consisted of the best power player and the best player at the kind of game she herself was trying to play. Sandra is a good floater. Jerri is not. I'm choosing to state it like a fact because I'm not wrong here.
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Old 12-22-2010, 04:06 PM   #4984
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I did think Erinn was great, but not as good as JT or Stephen. Cirie was my favorite on FvF, but I don't know if that counts since they all played the game as if it were a final 3 that season. Matty was my favorite in Gabon...
You've said a lot of weird things but this might top the list. WTF did Erinn do besides be hated by her entire tribe. I guess not being an immunity threat was a positive too.
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Old 12-22-2010, 04:26 PM   #4985
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

From Probst's Twitter regarding a potential 4-4-1 tie at the FTC:

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Ties would be dealt with back on the island. Can't tell you how though... that's a surprise!
Not sure if that means they'd go to the backup votes, but it sure doesn't sound like it.

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You answered your own question (see bolded). AND she was a viable take to the end for him. He probably should have in fact. AND because purples hated her, she had absolutely nothing to lose. AND she hated some of the purples and is one of those players who had other motivations than winning driving her game decisions and she could definately satisfy those motivations by siding with Russell. (I credit him for knowing that she was usable and for having a good approach with her.) But again, she was like throw me in the briar patch voting off these purples.
Just because your tribe wants nothing to do with you doesn't mean you should flip and (hypothetically) force a tie, especially that early. In reality, she actually flipped the vote before when she was up 7-4, and I think we both know that there wasn't any rational thought behind her flip. I'll agree that this is not the best example of manipulating a player, though, as I think she would have flipped no matter what the numbers were since she's an irrational nutjob.
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Old 12-22-2010, 04:51 PM   #4986
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Oddly enough I think I agree with the latter, but not the former. You can't edit things in that aren't there. I mean, I was already aware that she chose Russell because she could recognize that he was a good bus driver, but then she sat there looking out the window at the scenery and did what he and others told her. I just think there is a big difference between Sandra who actively makes an effort to know what is really going on, and Jerri who breezes in (or is summoned) for the 'here's what is going to happen' meeting.

I think Sandra is going to have a shot at wiggling off the hook if her number is coming up. I think Jerri is sitting around waiting to be cast out to sea. I think Jerri played a great game for Jerri. That's the best I can give her.

I mean, what is it do you think they are going to show us in this sick edit of yours? I already know she picked Russell on purpose. I already know she made a few good decisions for herself along the way (Candice and Danielle), but she was a like a bunny frolicking with a nest of vipers. She didn't survive it and I didn't expect her to. And I disbelieve the editors could have convinced me she played a powerful game.

Natalie played a fairly weak game, but at least her alliance consisted of a guy everyone hated and two other players who were weaker than herself. Jerri didn't have the luxury of the second half of that equation. The rest of her alliance consisted of the best power player and the best player at the kind of game she herself was trying to play. Sandra is a good floater. Jerri is not. I'm choosing to state it like a fact because I'm not wrong here.
I have to take exception to "did as she was told." She was presented options and chose correctly. That's what this game was all about. The edit I envision is more in depth description of the choices she was making and why.

Make no mistake, Russell is screwed at several decision point if Jerri goes another direction, and I feel her choices were legitimately up in the air. I don't think she was forced into anything. Jerri may not have been aggressive, but she, more than anyone, shaped the storyline of HvV if you just look at major plot points.

Even Russell complimented Jerri's game (though that could have simply been flattery to keep her loyal).

I think your last sentence in the 3rd paragraph is somewhat telling. I don't think a game has to be "powerful" to be amazing.
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Old 12-22-2010, 04:59 PM   #4987
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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You've said a lot of weird things but this might top the list. WTF did Erinn do besides be hated by her entire tribe. I guess not being an immunity threat was a positive too.
She flipped right at the merge getting close to JT and Stephen before her tribe blew up, she had convinced Stephen to bring her to final 2 (even though that didn't matter). She was able to fuel conflict without being at the heart of it, which is possibly the most important skill when you aren't in control.
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Old 12-22-2010, 05:57 PM   #4988
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I think one of the reasons for this is often the person who played the best game is booted at the last minute since they are such a threat for the money.
But then, using what I believe is your usual line of thinking, wouldn't that person by definition not have played the best game?
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Old 12-22-2010, 06:31 PM   #4989
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

hehe, I think there's 3 different ways to be a good survivor.

Play a hyper-aggressive game that gets you to the end a high frequency but gives you a low shot at jury votes.

Play an aggressive game that gives you a good shot at getting to the end and a good shot at some jury votes.

Play an UTR, passive games that gives you an average shot at getting to the end but when you get there you're getting most of dem votes.

I'm mostly joking but there's some truth to that.
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Old 12-22-2010, 06:40 PM   #4990
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I don't think he sounded like a moron at all, I thought he sounded very smart, just very excited so it was hard to gather his thoughts.

Anybody who wants to undermine the government is almost smart by definition.
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Like I said, smarts for me is in ideas, not words. If you listen to what he was actually trying to say, he plans on doing some really good, progressive things with the money.

Dude was just excited, cut him some slack.
bolded I agree with but the rambling about 55% of ownership and corporations and connecting points around the globe just isn't very intelligent sounding. he's easily one of the least bright winners in one of the weakest fields.
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Old 12-22-2010, 07:12 PM   #4991
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by kartinken View Post
She flipped right at the merge getting close to JT and Stephen before her tribe blew up, she had convinced Stephen to bring her to final 2 (even though that didn't matter). She was able to fuel conflict without being at the heart of it, which is possibly the most important skill when you aren't in control.
No she didn't. We can't give her credit for this.
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Old 12-22-2010, 07:15 PM   #4992
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I have to take exception to "did as she was told." She was presented options and chose correctly. That's what this game was all about. The edit I envision is more in depth description of the choices she was making and why.

Make no mistake, Russell is screwed at several decision point if Jerri goes another direction, and I feel her choices were legitimately up in the air. I don't think she was forced into anything. Jerri may not have been aggressive, but she, more than anyone, shaped the storyline of HvV if you just look at major plot points.

Even Russell complimented Jerri's game (though that could have simply been flattery to keep her loyal).

I think your last sentence in the 3rd paragraph is somewhat telling. I don't think a game has to be "powerful" to be amazing.
Every decision leads back to Jerri choosing Russell. I'm not saying it was a bad idea for her--it probably gave her her best shot and she got to enjoy her time out there letting everyone else scramble while she relaxed. But I'm not amazed by it. It smacks of, I don't want to do any heavy lifting, I think I'll let this guy do it for me. Oops, where did Parv and Sandra come from. Oh yeah, I chose them too.

I'm not that impressed by "Russell is screwed by Jerri hypothetically going in another direction". The object of the game isn't to screw Russell. She DIDN'T go in another direction--and probably shouldn't have, like I said I think she played the best game she could play. I would posit it might be difficult to go in another direction given the make up of the rest of the alliance. All her eggs were in Russell's basket, and he was latched onto Parv who was latched onto Danielle. All three of them were threats to keep Jerri from winning immunity when she needed it. All three of them had strong ties amongst themselves. And Sandra was in the mix as well and she is a more active floater than Jerri...more aware...more in people's ears. {shrug} Love Jerri's game if you must. She picks some tough company to run with.
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Old 12-22-2010, 08:39 PM   #4993
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

The standard criticism of Russell is that in his desire to be aggressive he made moves that were ill-considered. The exact same statement applies to Sandra's game in relation to Jerri's. Sandra went out of her way to alienate Russell, which was suicidal when Russell was in control of the pre-merge Villains tribe after Rob was booted. She gets credit for 'convincing' Russell to boot Coach, but what she said was actually true, whether or not she knew it: Coach had been plotting to eliminate Russell and he would've snap-defected at the merge. She then had to rely on Russell making an elementary mistake by booting Courtney over her. We've gone over before why trying to defect to the Heroes was a poor move for Sandra (you can argue that Russell would've wanted her gone at some point due to their hatred of each other, but that's a position that she put herself in), and she has confessed in interviews that she thought she didn't have a shot at winning and just wanted to get revenge on Russell. Soncy said that 'the object of the game isn't to screw Russell'; try telling that to Sandra. She ended up in a F4 configuration where she has to either win immunity (lol) or luck into Russell making another obvious mistake in booting Jerri (he wasn't going to win, but if he took Parv and Jerri he could at least make the argument that he was making the decisions and the girls went along with them, whereas Sandra was the 'anti-Russell' in addition to being a military mum). I'm supposed to accept that this woman is the greatest player of all time, or even a top-tier player in the first place? Please.

Jerri also had to rely on help from others (e.g. Parv saving her with the idol at F10), but her game overall was much better than Sandra's. I'd put Parv just above Jerri as the best in HvV, with a large gap before Russell, and then another large gap before Sandra. Also, if Parv had won the FIC - and she was probably the favourite in a given challenge - I believe she would've been willing to force a tie.

As for Shambo: I don't fault Russell for booting her. Russell would have much more trouble getting votes from the Galu girls than from the Galu men, and Shambo has a shot at getting Erik, Brett, and potentially John imo. Laura, his most bitter enemy, controlled three votes on the jury. He HAD to ensure that he had a good shot at receiving the men's votes. Also, Shambo was 100% voting for Russell while the same couldn't be said of, say, Jaison. In order to win Samoa I think Russell had to take Jaison and Mick and give a very strong (Todd/Chase level) performance at FTC.

Erinn's game was pretty good. Saying she had 'convinced' Stephen to bring her to FTC is lolworthy since he knew that he could never win against JT, but she played well otherwise. So often we've seen people fail to flip when it would improve her position; Erinn managed to buck that trend. Had Coach and Debbie not been such idiots, Timbira could've regrouped at F7 and taken out JT and Stephen. Erinn is a massive favourite to win the game if she goes into a FIC with Taj and Sierra: she beats Sierra, Sierra is forced to take her, and Taj is very unlikely to win the FIC.
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Old 12-22-2010, 09:03 PM   #4994
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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She then had to rely on Russell making an elementary mistake by booting Courtney over her.
I'm not convinced this was a mistake...or, maybe more accurately, I see the logic behind booting her over Sandra.

1. Sandra is a former winner, which makes a jury less likely to vote for her again.
2. Courtney is dating Stephen, who is close with JT, who was on the Heroes tribe, which makes her more likely to flip post-merge.
3. Sandra is more rational than Courtney, which makes her game easier to predict.

They had a lot more information than I do, so I'm sure there were plenty of reasons for booting Courtney. I would have booted Sandra instead, but I can see the logic behind why the Villains kept her.

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Russell making another obvious mistake in booting Jerri
I thought this was a mistake at the time, but I actually think it's correct now. Looking back, I think Russell's only shot was to sit next to Parvati. Look at it this way...

Russell+Parv+Sandra: Parv cannot present herself as a strategist because Russell out-strategized her. If the jury decides to vote based on strategy, they can't possibly think Russell wasn't the best since Parv mostly voted with him, and when she wasn't voting with him, she wasn't controlling the votes. Parv's only unique argument is "I won challenges." Russell can only lose to one voting method (the "I don't like you, so I'll vote for Sandra" angle). He also put his friend, Jerri, on the jury (she would have voted for him had Parv not pointed this out to her).

Russell+Jerri+Sandra: In this scenario, Russell is the only strategist, so he now has to dodge two "I don't like you, so I'll vote for the other person" contenders, one from each tribe. In either scenario, he only wins if the jury respects strategy, but in this scenario, he runs the risk of pro-strategy jurors still voting for Jerri because she's likable AND was in the majority alliance the entire game. Russell is also left with one less friend on the jury; Parv said she would have voted for Sandra had she been booted at F4.

(I realize this will all come across as unconditional Russell support from a fanboy, but I actually think it's quite logical.)
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Old 12-22-2010, 09:22 PM   #4995
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Also see: Rob C., JFP, Scout (Chris and Twila were great too though), Rafe, Cirie pt. 1
You mean Cirie pt. 2 actually. Terry, another good example, was the last person booted from Exile Island.

More fan-favorite/"great players" booted at the last chance: Rudy (Borneo), Lex (Africa), Kathy (Marquesas), Ian (Palau), Yau-Man (Fiji)

It's not a totally forced edit. There have been a few duds. Keith in Australia, Sundra in Cook Islands. Most of the time, the last person voted out is seen as a jury threat, and receives the corresponding edit.

It's an element of a great season's narrative, though. A "great player" coming up just short, voted out at the last opportunity. Don't think that the editors don't pay attention to this and play up the last person voted out.
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Old 12-22-2010, 09:24 PM   #4996
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Saying that booting Courtney over Sandra was a mistake in HvV is absolutely 100% results-oriented. Courtney was just as threatening, if not more than Sandra. The real mistake was booting Coach, although JT sure had a lot of sway with Coach in Tocantins. Who knows. This is part of the reason why All-Star seasons suck.

By the way, in case anyone's forgotten, the Coach boot was heavily influenced by that total floater of a non-strategic entity Sandra.
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Old 12-22-2010, 09:45 PM   #4997
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Kos: You're right that Sandra is more rational than Courtney (although I that's not saying much tbh, and - as seen in both PI and HvV - Sandra does often act emotionally), but when faced with a choice between Sandra, who is a lock to flip, and Courtney, whose friendship with Parvati (they were shown as close and post-game interviews with each of them confirm it) makes her more likely to stay loyal. Russell probably thought that Parvati was already powerful enough with effectively two votes (her + Danielle) that he didn't want to risk her acquiring another pawn, but if the Villains were in the minority at the merge all of that would've been irrelevant anyway.

I agree that Russell probably had to keep Parv at F4; I'm saying that booting Sandra was better than booting Jerri. If you're as unpopular as Russell was, you need the people with you at the end to be identified with you so that some of the reasons they wouldn't vote for you are nullified by the fact that they apply to everybody.

boc: Nah, I mean Cirie pt. 1, who received a 'hero who fell just short' edit in EI. just as she did in FvF. If she wins the fire challenge she probably goes at F3 and fits the stereotype even better.

If you're questioning Russell booting Coach, go back and watch any interaction between Coach and JT in Tocantins. Also, since you apparently don't think any conclusive statements can be made from the editing whatsoever, you have no basis on which to say that Coach's boot was heavily influenced by Sandra because you're just regurgitating what the editing showed you.
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Old 12-22-2010, 10:12 PM   #4998
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Saying that booting Courtney over Sandra was a mistake in HvV is absolutely 100% results-oriented. Courtney was just as threatening, if not more than Sandra. The real mistake was booting Coach, although JT sure had a lot of sway with Coach in Tocantins. Who knows. This is part of the reason why All-Star seasons suck.

By the way, in case anyone's forgotten, the Coach boot was heavily influenced by that total floater of a non-strategic entity Sandra.
No way. Booting Coach pre merge was one of the easiest decisions of the season. Russell was going to miss it, Sandra saved them both when she turned Russell against Coach, but Coach was insta-flipping at the merge. It just makes sense, and he said as much after the season.
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Old 12-22-2010, 10:31 PM   #4999
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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No way. Booting Coach pre merge was one of the easiest decisions of the season. Russell was going to miss it, Sandra saved them both when she turned Russell against Coach, but Coach was insta-flipping at the merge. It just makes sense, and he said as much after the season.
Other than Coach's mancrush on JT in Tocantins, why you do think he was instaflipping? What did they show us that would imply this?
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Old 12-22-2010, 10:36 PM   #5000
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Other than Coach's mancrush on JT in Tocantins, why you do think he was instaflipping? What did they show us that would imply this?
Coach went on HvV looking for redemption. In his mind he's the world's biggest Hero. I would have bet everything I owned before the season even started that Coach would flip if he made the merge.

What greater redemption is there in a dillusional mind than to turn on the villains and join the heroes.
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