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Old 12-09-2010, 07:27 AM   #3901
Borgland
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Soncy View Post
Something must be wrong with me because I thought Benry was going pretty much the entire time. I had a slightly perplexed moment until a Benry vote came out, then I was like, yeah...that's what I thought.
Naw, you did good. I didn't see the Benry vote coming. I figured Jane was gone because people were getting concerned about her improving by the day chances to win.
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Old 12-09-2010, 07:45 AM   #3902
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

but... we are talking about our anticipation based on the editing of the episode

the editors served Fabio's head on a golden platter to us and no one was more the wiser 2 Fabio votes in

no freaking way are +90% of posters/casuals were not convinced off a Fabio send off after his 2nd vote against was read

I don't know what kind of ESP kos, soncy, and whoever else claim to have experienced tonight, but I sure hope they apply it to their poker game
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Old 12-09-2010, 08:28 AM   #3903
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by vyk07 View Post
but... we are talking about our anticipation based on the editing of the episode

the editors served Fabio's head on a golden platter to us and no one was more the wiser 2 Fabio votes in

no freaking way are +90% of posters/casuals were not convinced off a Fabio send off after his 2nd vote against was read

I don't know what kind of ESP kos, soncy, and whoever else claim to have experienced tonight, but I sure hope they apply it to their poker game
I assumed it was Holly b/c of how much they were shoving Fabio down our throats. Boc is right that this episode was not edited in the standard way at all.
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Old 12-09-2010, 08:30 AM   #3904
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I really don't understand what wasn't obvious. I guess maybe Soncy and I are on the same wavelength or something, but it seemed painfully obvious to me that Benry was the target. We got a serious overdose of Benry repeating himself in confessionals with "I hope it's not me" several times, Sash told us exactly who he had sided with, and he even told us their plan to make "them" think Fabio was the target.

I'm pretty pumped for Cesternino's podcast with Benry tomorrow, as I'm sure it will be 90% dirt squirrel discussion. FWIW, Benry posted his definition on Facebook, and it made me laugh my ass off:

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A 2 legged female that scavenges for nut and often displays moral inconsistencies. it's a noun.
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Old 12-09-2010, 01:00 PM   #3905
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

i didnt know who was going home till the votes. but i dont think too hard about that. i just like to watch and enjoy whatever they show us. i thought it was a real good episode even though i was disappointed with the result
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Old 12-09-2010, 01:06 PM   #3906
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by vyk07 View Post
the editors served Fabio's head on a golden platter to us and no one was more the wiser 2 Fabio votes in

no freaking way are +90% of posters/casuals were not convinced off a Fabio send off after his 2nd vote against was read
Fabio got no face time for the first 40 minutes of the episode, so I figured that the chances of it being him were really slim. Plus, there is no way that at this point of the season they would push one guy so hard and have it be him.
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Old 12-09-2010, 01:11 PM   #3907
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I really really want to like Sash, but I keep trying to come up with the scenario where this was the most +EV play for him and I can't. I assume (which after this indefensible play I really shouldn't) he knows that Dan is the most ideal person to try to bring to FTC. How everyone isn't trying to get to that scenario to me is mind blowing, because there's no way the guy gets a single vote. Maybe Sash's ego is big enough he thinks he beats all combos that don't include Jane? I guess he really thinks that the final three with this move is really going to be him Chase and Holly and is willing to just punt Jane's vote?

If I were him (lol armchair quarterback) after seeing how quick Benry and Dan were to flip on Fabio to save themselves, why wouldn't you try and put that in your pocket? Basically with immunity blindside say Chase and still have an idol for the next tribal? Jane is going to be an auto vote off for everybody after that anyway especially if it's just her and the shoe bandit. After that you know the three guys alliance isn't really that strong. However, for Sash i suppose it comes down to him thinking he may punt Chase Holly and Jane for FTC if he does this?

I know Chase told Benry he's not stupid about FTC with Jane, but honestly he sucks her dick so hard I think he might be. I think there's actually a chance this plays out so stupidly that Chase and Holly hand Jane a million.

Honestly everyone is so dumb though and nobody seems to have a real plan that it actually makes it pretty interesting I think.
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Old 12-09-2010, 02:13 PM   #3908
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Just watched Benry Ponderosa videos. He said he was completely shocked and blindsided.... WAT? The whole episode he was worried about being sent home.
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Old 12-09-2010, 02:15 PM   #3909
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Holly and Chase kept agreeing with Sash that Jane is a threat to win but I don't think they actually want to vote her off, they seem too loyal/honest to do that.

If I'm Sash, I'm looking at Chase/Holly/Jane as a pretty tight alliance and I'm a solid 4th on that. However, Benry showed he was willing to flip, and Fabio seems susceptible to following anyone with a "plan".

Plus, why would you want to go with the more solid alliance that's filled with the bigger threats to win? So I don't understand Sash's choice at all.

Standard disclaimer: This is all based on what the editors show us and may not reflect Survivor reality.
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Old 12-09-2010, 03:19 PM   #3910
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

If Sash is sure that Holly & Chase are serious about voting off Jane, and if he thinks he can beat those two in front of a jury, then this was the right play for him

He doesn't WANT to be allied with people who will turn on their allies as easily as Benry & Dan did, because next time, it could be him. That's not a good situation for him, and he doesn't need to go to the end with the best possible group to face the jury, imo, since he has lots of allies there already, and the others don't

Who, already on the jury, do you think votes Holly or Chase over Sash? Maybe Alina, but that means he only needs to find 1 more vote out of the remaining jury
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Old 12-09-2010, 03:38 PM   #3911
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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If Sash is sure that Holly & Chase are serious about voting off Jane, and if he thinks he can beat those two in front of a jury, then this was the right play for him
Sure, IF Holly and Chase will vote off Jane and IF he can beat those two, then yes it's the right play - I agree with that. I'm just not convinced that they'll really turn on Jane and stick with Sash. If they do that, then yes this is a safer path to the F3. But if he can get to the F3 with the other alliance, he's more likely to win, IMO, as no one will vote for Benry or Dan, and I don't think Fabio will get more than one or two. I think Holly may end up getting a few votes, and Chase has the loyalty thing going for him.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, for sure.

I haven't actually sat down and thought about who would vote for whom in each F3 situation and so I might be wrong about what I just said above, but as far as making quick judgments, I think it's correct that a F3 with Holly/Chase is worse for Sash than a F3 with Benry/Dan/Fabio. Plus there 's the risk of getting Jane in F3 if he goes with that alliance. Who would vote for Sash in a Holly/Chase/Sash F3? And who would vote for him in a Benry/Dan/Sash F3 (insert Fabio for one of them if you like)?
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Old 12-09-2010, 04:06 PM   #3912
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

both rob cs podcasts up. interview with benry and one with tina wesson

http://robhasawebsite.com/2010/12/09...or-swing-vote/
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Old 12-09-2010, 04:44 PM   #3913
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Who would vote for Sash in a Holly/Chase/Sash F3? And who would vote for him in a Benry/Dan/Sash F3 (insert Fabio for one of them if you like)?
I think Sash gets votes from Marty, Brenda, Naonka & Kelly in any situation, including against Jane. He was close to them all, they were allies, and the two he voted out are gamers and should understand why he did it.
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Old 12-09-2010, 04:57 PM   #3914
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Zurvan View Post
If Sash is sure that Holly & Chase are serious about voting off Jane, and if he thinks he can beat those two in front of a jury, then this was the right play for him

He doesn't WANT to be allied with people who will turn on their allies as easily as Benry & Dan did, because next time, it could be him. That's not a good situation for him, and he doesn't need to go to the end with the best possible group to face the jury, imo, since he has lots of allies there already, and the others don't

Who, already on the jury, do you think votes Holly or Chase over Sash? Maybe Alina, but that means he only needs to find 1 more vote out of the remaining jury
Note that Benry and Dan only turned on Fabio at Sash's bidding. Dan is a completely passive player who is perfect for Sash to adopt as his pawn, while Benry's scrambling in this episode was necessitated by the danger he was in and not a regular feature of his game.

If Sash faces Holly or Chase, NaOnka and quite possibly Kelly are no longer locks for Sash. In addition, I can easily see Benry, Dan, and/or Fabio turning on Sash for turning on them, as he has to do if he goes with Holly/Jane/Chase. Jane is also a lock to vote for either Holly or Chase unless she ends up being incredibly bitter. If he goes to the end with Dan and Benry, he gets Brenda/Marty/NaOnka/Kelly and then only has to pick up one more vote.
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Old 12-09-2010, 05:16 PM   #3915
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Im pretty sure Dan is going to FTC. think for Sash, he needs to take Fabio and Dan to win. i am rooting for both of those guys and no one else really. Holly would be my #3 for preference in winning.

NOTE on power rankings: none this week. Next week though, for the final 5, anyone can rank players.
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Old 12-09-2010, 06:07 PM   #3916
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

gotta tell ya, ive watched almost every season of this show. never have i hated every player left at this point in the show. only person i can stomach winning is Fabio.
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Old 12-09-2010, 06:24 PM   #3917
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Not sure how many people ITT listen to the boot interviews, but Benry might as well have just come out and said, "If Sash makes the finals, I'm not voting for him."
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Old 12-09-2010, 06:36 PM   #3918
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I think Sash just shot himself in the foot with his decision.
He cannot beat a single on of the estrogen alliance. Even with Jane out of the picture he'll lose.
With Benry and Dan in the FTC he has a decent shot.
Maybe he thinks he can swing Holly over later in the game and vote off Jane and Chase but I think that's unlikely.

It felt to me like this was the first real danfessional. And then Dan was actually strategizing a litte bit.
I still cannot comprehend how they didn't manage to get Sash on their site after they had like the hole day to ensure him to go with them.
The last few episodes I really thought Fabio had at least a decent plan but this episode had the same clueless Fabio from the first few episodes again.
The only way Fabio can win this game now is by winning every single immunity challenge left.
I hate Jane and Chase, I really hope that the others manage to NOT let them win.
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Old 12-09-2010, 08:07 PM   #3919
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

My favorite scene of the episode:
They're trying to do the puzzle (which probably took like 20min in real time) and Jane keeps yapping like a chihuahua, pun intended, and Fabio turns to Benry and says "SHUT UP"!

After watching the Ponderosa clips, it seems like Benry had a decent chance to get a vote from Brenda, Marty and Purple Kelly.
So maybe Sash did a good move, taking Benry out but now was not the time.

btw, Brenda and Purple Kelly doing some cooking in bikinis -> HAWT!!!
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Old 12-09-2010, 08:20 PM   #3920
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I've got a betting pool w/ some friends. With 6 people left, i do not remember such a norrow margin between best and worst player from a score point of view (except Dan).

Currently in my home game:
Chase : 127
Holly, Fabio : 123
Sash, Jane : 122
.
.
.
Dan : 79
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Old 12-09-2010, 09:08 PM   #3921
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

When it comes down to final four there are three ways to get in: Loyalty, have one or two other players be viable jury threats over yourself, or control your own destiny by winning in.

The loyalty in this case is a tricky issue. Sash has no reason to expect loyalty from either threesome. But he has worked closely with Chase and Jane during the game. Even so, the danger of Chase and Jane being more loyal to Holly is a real concern for Sash. So he definately has no loyalty from the other men, but the loyalty Jane, Holly, and Chase have for each other may be a problem for him.

Have other viable jury threats. With the men, there are none. I don't see how Sash could expect those three guys to be stupid enough to take him to the end. Nobody in their right mind would want to get rid of Dan, so he'd have to convince Benry that he was better to take than Fabio or Fabio that he was better to take than Benry. How is he going to do that? They all know Sash got along well with the jury members. So his argument is what, that Fabio and Benry played the exact same nothing game so they should play against him at FTC instead of each other? Fabio is dumb, but is he this dumb?

Choose your own adventure. Dan is not winning immunity, so that's good. But Benry and Fabio are both huge threats especially if the challenge is very physical. If I'm right about the viable jury threat theory, Sash would have to be in a must win situation here. I'm thinking yuck. This scenario does not look like a scenario that a 'keep your options open' kind of guy would relish getting himself into.

Sash may be falling prey to the belief that the most strategic player will win if he makes it to the end, see himself as that player, and therefore not be that concerned about who he faces. He may be incorrectly thinking that Holly and Chase will ax Jane because they think she is such a dangerous jury threat (I'm not even sure about the Jane threat--I really think Marty was just throwing her under the bus). I don't know what exactly is going through Sash's mind, but I know something it going through his mind. And I agree with Probst that Sash is always going to do what he thinks is best for Sash. Maybe he's wrong, but I don't think we can accuse him of following his heart.
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Old 12-09-2010, 09:23 PM   #3922
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Spoiler:


Well, there you have it. The recipe for gaining the support of the 2+2 Survivor thread: Control pretty much nothing. Repeatedly say, "As long as it's not me, I don't care." Act like a douchebag a couple of times while casting the vote that other people told you to cast. And top it off with a quality spite vote.

This guy is everything we love in a player, eh folks? I might cry a tear that he didn't make it to the end.
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Old 12-09-2010, 09:42 PM   #3923
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by slanche View Post
I still cannot comprehend how they didn't manage to get Sash on their side after they had like the whole day to ensure him to go with them.
Especially, when he seemed to be legitimately telling both sides to make him an offer. I mean if he was set on going with the women, why approach the men at all? He basically said, sell me on your group, and they didn't. How hard would it have been for all of them to agree to faux promise him their undying final three behind each other's backs? This thread thinks Sash's path was clear cut go with the men. This thread thinks Sash has a working brain. The men were unable to convince Sash to go with them. This thread claims to support competent gameplay. And this thread still wants one of the non-Chase men to win. I don't get it. Chase might be soft, but he's played this game better than Benry and Fabio by a long shot. He's been in multiple dominant alliances. He controlled the votes at his tribe after the switch. Many of the other players like him (even if they don't respect him because he is tender-hearted and wishy washy). Do we value control of the game or do we value what we like? Because if we value what we like, then maybe it's okay for other people to value what they like.
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Old 12-09-2010, 09:53 PM   #3924
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
Originally Posted by slanche View Post
My favorite scene of the episode:
They're trying to do the puzzle (which probably took like 20min in real time) and Jane keeps yapping like a chihuahua, pun intended, and Fabio turns to Benry and says "SHUT UP"!

After watching the Ponderosa clips, it seems like Benry had a decent chance to get a vote from Brenda, Marty and Purple Kelly.
So maybe Sash did a good move, taking Benry out but now was not the time.

btw, Brenda and Purple Kelly doing some cooking in bikinis -> HAWT!!!
This spoiler is speculation, but I trust my speculation more than most is why I'm tagging it.

Spoiler:
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Old 12-09-2010, 11:15 PM   #3925
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Quote:
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gotta tell ya, ive watched almost every season of this show. never have i hated every player left at this point in the show. only person i can stomach winning is Fabio.
Yup by far this season is horrible , idk its the cocky kids, or the worst strat ever ....maybe like I said before we were spoiled so much the past 2 seasons ( and the past 4 before that were pretty decent too) that this ones lame.

Here is what's gonna happen chase will bring jane like a chump and insta lose. Chase needs to get the finals so people can call him a moron to his face.

I'm pulling for Fabio, please win some challenges.
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