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Old 11-29-2010, 11:43 PM   #3576
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Nice try, Probst. I'm on to you.
<3 Soncy.
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Old 11-30-2010, 12:26 AM   #3577
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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No, but if he outplays you and you get your money in behind, your poor decisions aren't retrospectively validated because you spike your four-outer on the river.

In Samoa he was 'the greatest' and they were all 'dumb sheep'. It's not as if he's unable to establish good relationships with people in the game - John and Shambo, the only two people post-merge who could legitimately claim to have been betrayed by Russell, liked him and voted for him. He simply committed the cardinal sin of failing to realize that if you're a polarizing figure you don't want to go up against the paragon of innocent virtue. Is his inability to identify potential jury threats a massive flaw in his gameplay? Of course. But he's arguably the best tactician the game has ever seen, and he understands that part of the game at a higher level than anyone on either of his seasons. Jaison played a better game than Natalie by almost any metric you might care to use, but you don't see any Natalie fans drawing attention to that fact.
I know I've repeatedly suggested that people are more likely to vote for the people they played with (or think they played with) in the game. Shambo and John both thought they were playing with Russell (kudos to Russell for making them believe this, btw... Strategy shmategy. It's his people manipulation skills that are most impressive. Or at least, knowing who is on the outskirts and how to attack them at their weaknesses--the devil.)

It always amuses me that Shambo's vote for Russell is continually cited as some sort of validation of his play. We do understand that Shambo hated most of the purples, right? And that Russell and Co. helped her get rid of the purples? Getting rid of the purples for Shambo was on the order of Jane getting rid of Marty. It's very likely she cared more about getting rid of purples than winning the game. (And if Russell wanted to rub purple faces in the dirt on the way out, so much the better.) So when it came down to casting her vote for Russell, it was obviously because she was a reasonable fair minded jury member who was able to put aside that Russell 'used her' (to accomplish something she perhaps wanted more than winning the game) and certainly NOT because she could remain in opposition to the hated purples by casting her vote for Russell instead of Natalie. Ok.

Fincher I might buy as a non-biased juror--it seems to fit his character. Not so sure on Shambo.

I kinda wish the season had been final two with Russell and Shambo at FTC. Really put the screws to those jurors.
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Old 11-30-2010, 12:32 AM   #3578
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I guess this is what happens when you don't have an episode for two weeks :P. Nicaragua is less controversial and more interesting anyway.

Kelly is almost certainly with the women; she seems to like each of Holly, Jane, and Chase. Ditto NaOnka. The only way I can see them going with the men is if Sash is able to sway NaOnka, who in turn sways Kelly. This is of course assuming that Sash wants to vote with the men, which I imagine he does (since he's a n-th wheel with the women, whereas he might have a better shot in a men + NaOnka/Kelly F6/F7). I don't see how he could go out next week though, he seems aware enough not to be blindsided while holding an idol.

Are we expecting a double boot/medevac at some point? It seems like one more person needs to go for the numbers to work. The Ponderosa vids suggest a double boot, so I wouldn't be surprised to see that this week, even if it's not featured in the preview.

EDIT: Soncy, you make a good point about Shambo's possible motives. She didn't seem to dislike Natalie in the way Galu proper disliked Russell, but I can imagine her wanting to spite Laura and friends some more.
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Old 11-30-2010, 12:39 AM   #3579
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Spoiler:
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Old 11-30-2010, 12:49 AM   #3580
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Most loltastic scenario:

Spoiler:


One last point related to Russell:

Quote:
Originally Posted by kartinken
And of course it's obvious how hot he ran on Samoa. I don't think after 2 seasons of some of the luckiest Survivor we've seen we can say he's so likely to get to the end.
Almost every winner or repeat finalist gets insane luck at some point though. Parv gets the benefit of a F2 and some timely medevacs in FvF and some free idols in HvV, Todd doesn't win if his opponents are competent and neither do Earl, Chris, Tom etc.
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Old 11-30-2010, 12:55 AM   #3581
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

how many days do they have left out there? how many episodes left?
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Old 11-30-2010, 01:03 AM   #3582
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Spoiler:
Spoiler:
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Old 11-30-2010, 01:27 AM   #3583
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by SavageTilt View Post
Are we expecting a double boot/medevac at some point? It seems like one more person needs to go for the numbers to work. The Ponderosa vids suggest a double boot, so I wouldn't be surprised to see that this week, even if it's not featured in the preview.
FWIW, in Brenda's Ponderosa video, they said the next TC (which would be the upcoming one) was the very next day after Brenda was booted, so I'm guessing we're in for a double boot on Wednesday. Didn't they do the same quick-tribal thing a few seasons ago around this same time?

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how many days do they have left out there? how many episodes left?
Not sure on the days, but we have three more Wednesdays and the Sunday finale, so there are four episodes left. Without a double boot episode, there would be six people in the finale, and I doubt they'll do that.
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Old 11-30-2010, 02:30 AM   #3584
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I don't know how there can be people who apparently play poker saying that whoever wins a season deserved to win it. Whoever gives themselves the highest possible chance of winning the season deserves it; if that happens to be the winner, fine, but that's not always the case. In general, people who are controlling the flow of their season are the ones who gives themselves the best possible odds of winning. The only time when this isn't true is when there are many people attempting to control the game at the same time, but even then the placement of a floater is generally out of their own control.

The distinction between tactics and strategy is a valid one, and it's fair to say that Russell often made fundamental strategic mistakes, but to then elevate people like Natalie and Sandra who have no grasp of either tactics or strategy is absurd. Natalie does beat Russell in a jury vote >90% of the time, but the only way she ever makes it there is if she's the beneficiary of a lucky confluence of events, given that she did nothing to bring it about herself.
+1 MIRRIONNNNNNN

Savage, please contribute more often. I havn't noticed anyone structure and support their arguments so soundly before. I try to with mine, but they always seem to end up resembling semi-sensical ramblings than structural strategy discussions.

Only reason Russell kept Natalie over Jaison at F5 was because she gave him a better chance to beat Brett in the F4 immunity challenge, given that he was a 100% lock to win the game if he did and the fact that Jaison absolutely sucked at challenges, despite his physicality and intelligence

I wish Russell ended up with Mick and Jaison in the finals or even better Fincher and Shambo. It would have been justifiably LOLtastic to see Shambo or Mick end up being the beneficiaries of a bitter voting block.

Actually it might have been better if Brett somehow held on for a few split seconds longer in the last immunity challenge (given the same "who the f*ck is that guy" edit) and won in front of the most stacked juries in Survivor.

In either case, I will just leave this here for everyone's enjoyment



<3 Samoa in a perversely entertaining way
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Old 11-30-2010, 04:47 AM   #3585
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

lol. i enjoyed the season also.
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Old 11-30-2010, 10:53 AM   #3586
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I just started rewatching Samoa. I forgot how much Ben looks like Charlie from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia.
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Old 11-30-2010, 12:34 PM   #3587
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Spoiler:
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Old 11-30-2010, 03:17 PM   #3588
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Soncy View Post
Nice try, Probst. I'm on to you.
That is definitely him.

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I wish Russell ended up with Mick and Jaison in the finals or even better Fincher and Shambo. It would have been justifiably LOLtastic to see Shambo or Mick end up being the beneficiaries of a bitter voting block.
They would have edited the whole series differently if that happened, so it wouldn't have been much more LOLtastic than Natalie.
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Old 11-30-2010, 03:22 PM   #3589
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I really want to know how Samoa gets edited if Brett wins.
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Old 11-30-2010, 06:45 PM   #3590
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I really want to know how Samoa gets edited if Brett wins.
I imagine pretty similarly if Russell gets to the end. If Russell goes out when he should have (the week Erik went home) it would be pretty interesting.
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Old 11-30-2010, 06:58 PM   #3591
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

What if Brett wins the F4 immunity challenge and wins the final vote? For no other reason besides GALU JURY = BRETT WINS.

He's certainly not edited as invisibly as he was. I suppose he's just constantly shown forming bonds with everyone on the jury. I'm not at all on board with the people here who freak out about the final vote needing to go to whoever's making the bold strategic moves or controlling the gameflow or (my favorite) running the show... But even I'd feel terrible as a viewer after a Brett win.

People are pissed that Sandra won after her "entire strategy" was to vote out Russell. Imagine the fury surrounding Brett, who frequently voted in minorities postmerge, and whose only accomplishment was winning a couple of obstacle courses down the stretch.
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Old 11-30-2010, 07:06 PM   #3592
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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What if Brett wins the F4 immunity challenge and wins the final vote? For no other reason besides GALU JURY = BRETT WINS.

He's certainly not edited as invisibly as he was. I suppose he's just constantly shown forming bonds with everyone on the jury. I'm not at all on board with the people here who freak out about the final vote needing to go to whoever's making the bold strategic moves or controlling the gameflow or (my favorite) running the show... But even I'd feel terrible as a viewer after a Brett win.

People are pissed that Sandra won after her "entire strategy" was to vote out Russell. Imagine the fury surrounding Brett, who frequently voted in minorities postmerge, and whose only accomplishment was winning a couple of obstacle courses down the stretch.
Well the entire Samoa edit was to hype up Russell. They still need to do that if Brett wins at the end. Pretty much everyone but Russell and Shambo were invisible that season since all they cared about was selling Russell.

Edit: And to Russell's credit, he gave them a lot to work with.
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Old 11-30-2010, 08:06 PM   #3593
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Brett was probably the best player on Galu (really not saying much though): Erik/Dave/John thought he was in with them, as did Laura/Kelly/Monica, and Shambo loved him. Still, since he had so much influence, he bears a lot of responsibility for Galu's multiple collective ****ups.

Russell keeping Natalie to increase chances of beating Brett makes no sense since Natalie was identical to Brett as far as jury votes went.

Only a day until we finally have something new to talk about, thank God.
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Old 11-30-2010, 08:15 PM   #3594
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I don't think Natalie realized anything on that season.
Exactly.

What tilts me so much about Sandra/Natalie and other floater winners is that after the fact they make some big deal about how it was all part of their grand strategy.
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Old 11-30-2010, 08:19 PM   #3595
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by SavageTilt View Post
Brett was probably the best player on Galu (really not saying much though): Erik/Dave/John thought he was in with them, as did Laura/Kelly/Monica, and Shambo loved him. Still, since he had so much influence, he bears a lot of responsibility for Galu's multiple collective ****ups.

Russell keeping Natalie to increase chances of beating Brett makes no sense since Natalie was identical to Brett as far as jury votes went.

Only a day until we finally have something new to talk about, thank God.
Yeah, Russell made a ton of mistakes that season, but booting Jaison over Natalie was by far the biggest.
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Old 11-30-2010, 08:31 PM   #3596
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Yeah, Russell made a ton of mistakes that season, but booting Jaison over Natalie was by far the biggest.
+1

also +1 to booting Shambo at F6 instead of whoever

and +1 to botting Fincher at F9

I think Rus has a good chance against a Fincher/Shambo F3

nah who am I kidding, the jury would still spite vote against him and we would have Shambo win LOLOL
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Old 11-30-2010, 08:39 PM   #3597
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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+1

also +1 to booting Shambo at F6 instead of whoever

and +1 to botting Fincher at F9

I think Rus has a good chance against a Fincher/Shambo F3

nah who am I kidding, the jury would still spite vote against him and we would have Shambo win LOLOL
Yeah, no clue if he's learned/adjusted, but he didn't understand the game at all back then.
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Old 11-30-2010, 08:46 PM   #3598
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Targetting John at F9 was especially stupid since Shambo loved him; if the remaining Galus had been sensible and targetted whichever Foa Foa Shambo liked least, her vote for Dave means that it's a tie and there's a strong possibility she flips back on the revote.
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Old 11-30-2010, 08:56 PM   #3599
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by vyk07 View Post
+1

also +1 to booting Shambo at F6 instead of whoever

and +1 to botting Fincher at F9

I think Rus has a good chance against a Fincher/Shambo F3

nah who am I kidding, the jury would still spite vote against him and we would have Shambo win LOLOL
Wouldn't we have a Fincher winner? Not that Russell would have been keen on co-existing with Fincher for long, but in theory--or maybe split voting would have produced something interesting.

I thought final two with Russell and Shambo would have been interesting from a testing the limits of spite voting perspective. It's one thing to vote for Natalie. They all liked her. What if Dave Ball has to pick between Russell and Shambo? What does he do? If they actually vote Shambo over Russell I think it would tell us a lot more about his social game than them voting Natalie over Russell.
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Old 12-01-2010, 12:53 AM   #3600
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

im pretty sure dave ball would vote for russel over shamboo. not sure the rest of the galu
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