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Old 11-18-2010, 03:23 PM   #3326
VarianceMinefield
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

im really excited to see how this plays out. naonka has a idol, sash has a idol. both are possible targets and there are no clear alliances anymore. anything could happen the next few weeks and everyone has a shot to win still. its even possible for naonka to win. who knows right? next week is a recap someone said? i hope thats not true
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Old 11-18-2010, 03:43 PM   #3327
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua



Long live the Queen! (Queen Sash!)
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Old 11-18-2010, 03:54 PM   #3328
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

brenda interview up

http://robhasawebsite.com/2010/11/18...the-lowe-down/
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Old 11-18-2010, 05:01 PM   #3329
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by boc4life View Post
So, how about these idiots. All of them on level 0, terrible at Survivor, barely playing, no one ever going to make a power play, just gonna let Brenda and Sash play the middle and cruise through to the end. Oops.

Yes, they are level 0 thinkers. They are sheep that all jump on whatever the latest bandwagon is. They are all just sitting there waiting to be told who to vote for next. They were all letting Sash and Brenda call the shots, and then last night, they let Holly do it. They're all playing the Sandra "anyone but me" strategy. That's a fine strategy to play, by the way, but not when you look around and see that many others are doing the same thing. What has Kelly done to put herself in a position to be taken farther than the other floaters? Or Benry? Or Dan? Or Fabio? Or Jane? There's a difference between being an active swing vote and a floater, and when there are too many floaters, the correct strategy is not to also be one of them. Floating is good when there are stronger, more strategic players looking to take each other out. How did NaOnka put herself in a better position by going against her whole alliance only to now put her on even footing with everyone else instead of a virtually guaranteed final 3?

Oh right, it's all in the editing. They're all strategic masterminds and the editors have decided to withhold what would most likely be some great-for-tv footage because they don't want to spoil us with too good of a show.
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Old 11-18-2010, 05:21 PM   #3330
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by kartinken View Post
I was really happy he encouraged Jane to stay. If Jane really wanted to let go she would have just let go instead of announcing it.
I disagree. Psychologically speaking, people subconsciously do this all the time so that they can receive a reaction from those around them, either something that lets them know that this decision is ok "Good job, Jane. You had a great showing." or possibly some encouragement, to give them a final boost.

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Jeff has earned the right to say whatever he wants now. If he calls people out for sucking in challenges then I have no problem with him offering some encoragement.
That's like saying that a referee in a sport who has been a ref for a long time has earned the right to give one team some encouragement and effect the game. I have no problem with Jeff saying anything before or after the challenges, but if his job is to call the challenge, he really shouldn't do anything to effect the outcome. I know that you could argue that this is a tv show and not a sport, but when it comes to challenges, the players' performances should be what speaks, without outside influences.




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This is a classic probst move, he always encourages people not to quit.
Would you mind citing some examples? I really can't recall him doing it as blatantly as he did last night. I can think of times that one team that once had a huge lead will start to lose it and he'll say to the team that's behind, "team A, you are still in this" but will equally say to the winning team, "team B, you need to pick it up, your lead has all but evaporated." That just doesn't seem the same to me as an IIC where it's down to 2 people, and one of them says that they're about to let go (therefore ending the challenge) and he encourages them to hang in there. Usually when he comments on someone quitting, it's after they've made up their mind, like Ian in Palau, or when someone wants to quit the game, and his tone is usually more like, "Wow. After being up on the buoy for 12 hours" or "After 18 days in this game you're going to quit, huh? Well, alright. See ya later." He's letting that person know how he feels about it, but he's not trying to change their mind. Big difference.
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Old 11-18-2010, 05:30 PM   #3331
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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omg what a cl0wn
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Old 11-18-2010, 05:37 PM   #3332
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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There was a lot of hate for her spewing from Holly and Naonka. I find it very unlikely she could've swayed anyone to switch to her side.
With Benry and Fabio still low on the totem pole, I think she could have easily picked them up and regained the majority with her, Sash, Chase, and Kelly. She could have made a case for if she goes that they'll eventually go because Holly, Jane, Dan, and Na will now be in charge. Or she could make a case that the young team needs to stick together, that she's officially giving them Na's spot and that they were never on the outs on their tribe, etc. She may have even been able to massage her relationship with Jane and promised her a final 3 spot, etc.

I'm just saying that she had a ton of options and chose to exercise none of them, and it's pretty damn frustrating to see someone who you had thought to be a decent player in a season of sub par strategists roll over and die by putting all of their hopes in the hands of someone giving them an idol. It's the type of disillusionment we all got gradually by seeing Marty play slightly worse every episode, but all wrapped up in one episode.

Yes, I prematurely came down harshly on Sash. I don't mind him turning on Brenda at this point IF he did it with the foresight to then regain control next week, so I will reserve judgment til after then.

By the way, what a wacky, unpredictable season it is that Holly, Jane, and Dan are the last 3 old people left. lol survivorments
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Old 11-18-2010, 06:26 PM   #3333
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Double Down View Post
Yes, they are level 0 thinkers. They are sheep that all jump on whatever the latest bandwagon is. They are all just sitting there waiting to be told who to vote for next. They were all letting Sash and Brenda call the shots, and then last night, they let Holly do it. They're all playing the Sandra "anyone but me" strategy. That's a fine strategy to play, by the way, but not when you look around and see that many others are doing the same thing. What has Kelly done to put herself in a position to be taken farther than the other floaters? Or Benry? Or Dan? Or Fabio? Or Jane? There's a difference between being an active swing vote and a floater, and when there are too many floaters, the correct strategy is not to also be one of them. Floating is good when there are stronger, more strategic players looking to take each other out. How did NaOnka put herself in a better position by going against her whole alliance only to now put her on even footing with everyone else instead of a virtually guaranteed final 3?

Oh right, it's all in the editing. They're all strategic masterminds and the editors have decided to withhold what would most likely be some great-for-tv footage because they don't want to spoil us with too good of a show.
yeah you're totally right. this whole cast sucks at playing survivor, they should probably cast you to play because you'd totally crush it with your survivor abilities.

Hopefully they don't give you an edit that makes you look like an idiot.



Also, it's not a sporting event, it's a TV show. And Probst isn't a referee, he's more like an announcer.
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Old 11-18-2010, 07:15 PM   #3334
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Thumbs up Top 9 Power Rankings!

Wow, what a week. This was a great week with the elimination of Brenda. She was near the top in every Power Ranking and now is out of the game. Holly made a huge power move in both the game and this weeks rankings. She got 4 of the 1st place votes and Sash got 4 of the 2nd place votes.

The point system for this week from 1-9 was: 30, 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2. If you want to see how each of the voters ranked players; CLICK HERE.

1. Holly (140)


effectively turned the game on its head and is in a great position to manipulate the numbers the rest of the way (vyk07)

2. Sash (110)

I think he's actually got a better alliance than most people think. He may not have this thing locked in like he appeared to three days ago, but he's still firmly in control. (Kos13)

3. Fabio (64)

He's very likable, also a potential target. He is playing a pretty good UTR floater type game, so it's understandable why he is so popular ITT because that is generally a highly respected method. (Soncy)

4. Jane (58)

Probably the most unlikely immunity threat in Survivor history, but her physical strength combined with her ability to crush the jury vote if she makes it that far means she's very dangerous. I put her this low because she's been outed as a threat already, and I trust that Holly et al. are intelligent enough to realise that they can't win against her. (SavageTilt)

5. Benry (50)

He isn't in the greatest spot right now and if Chase is still trusted by Sash/NaOnka he might be the next to go. He could be a physical threat down the road, and if he gets numbers, look out. (Cash Mahne)

6. Chase (47)


Everyone appears to distrust him, and he could easily be taken out by Holly etc. in the near future as a physical threat (given that he probably would've won the challenge this week had he not been DQ'ed). The consensus used to be that he would crush the jury vote if he makes it to F3, but I'm not even sure of that any more: Brenda probably doesn't vote for him, Fabio and Benry probably don't, Marty doesn't unless he's against NaOnka and Kelly. Holly, Jane, Kelly, and NaOnka probably would depending who he was up against, but that's a very specific scenario. (SavageTilt)

7. Kelly (34)

judging from her rare air time this episode, she has a legit chance of at least making F3 (vyk07)

8. NaOnka (16*)


We saw some strategy from her this week, but she's still too evil to ever win. If people wouldn't vote for Russell Hantz and Boston Rob, they won't even consider voting for NaOnka. (Kos13)

9. Dan (16*)

I think people like him, but $1600 alligator shoes are hard to overcome vs two other opponents. I think he'd beat Naonka heads up. (Soncy)

*NaOnka and Dan both had 16 points, but NaOnka was ranked higher on 3 of the 5 ballots, so she is ranked 8th and Dan 9th.

The Top 8 Power rankings point system will be: 30, 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4
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Old 11-18-2010, 07:16 PM   #3335
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Someone absolutely has to do me the honor and take this lolworthy benryroar gif for their avatar (preferably someone who isn't already using a survivor avatar)



this douchebag needs more love
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Old 11-18-2010, 07:21 PM   #3336
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

if it is still available in a couple hours, PM me vyk. Im a big fan of it, but I agree that someone not using a Survivor Avatar should get first crack at it.
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Old 11-18-2010, 07:40 PM   #3337
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Double Down is Probst.
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Old 11-18-2010, 08:37 PM   #3338
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by boc4life View Post
yeah you're totally right. this whole cast sucks at playing survivor, they should probably cast you to play because you'd totally crush it with your survivor abilities.

Hopefully they don't give you an edit that makes you look like an idiot.

Also, it's not a sporting event, it's a TV show. And Probst isn't a referee, he's more like an announcer.
Look, we as viewers and fans of the show have every right to have opinions about the people on the show based on what they choose to show us. You sound like a complete buffoon by continuously crying "Editing!!!" every time anyone dares to form any type of opinion about anyone. What is the point of discussing the show at all if nothing they show us is to be believed and we are to take all footage shown with an infinitely gigantic grain of salt? Making the assumption that things are different than what they show is a much more ludicrous assumption with less weight than making assumptions based on footage that we see.

And based on what they have shown us this season (so far), the vast majority of the players have been playing at a very low level of strategy. Most are floaters who have not taken an active role in their own outcomes and are just waiting to be told what to do. Do you disagree with this? Or is your only response that this is only an assumption based on what they've shown us? Can't you see the weakness in that argument?

FWIW, in the entire history of the show, very very few people in post show interviews have said that they felt like they were edited inaccurately. The fact that the show is edited doesn't automatically discount from reality everything that we're watching.

In your words, if Probst is more of an announcer, why on earth would that somehow justify it for him to affect the game? In what other event is there an announcer where the contestants/athletes, etc. can even hear the announcing going on?? And he's not just announcing the event, he's running it as well. He determines when a team has completed a task and may move on, or when a player has won, etc. and because of that it's incredibly important for him to stay neutral. Yes it's a tv show, but it's based on a real game that people are playing for potentially life changing money. I guess next time Linda Johnson is announcing a poker tourney, she should say, "Seat 5 has moved allin and seat 6 is getting 10-1 odds to call. He has to call any 2 here! Is he really considering folding?!?" (I know, poker analogy ban)

Look, I'm in the entertainment business and I have a ton of friends who work in reality tv, so I am VERY aware of how much manipulation there is both on the show and in editing, and that sometimes the need to make an entertaining show contradicts the need to have a fairly played game. We have seen in Survivor a constant strive for equilibrium between their need to spice up the game with twists for the sake of entertainment, but not to the extent where it hurts the integrity of the game (HII having too much power, final 3 challenges, ghost tribe, etc.) So I just think Jeff needs to apply that to himself as a host. Be a good host, without interfering. I have the right as a fan of the show and of the game itself to hold this ideal in my mind.

Of course, maybe I've been fooled by the editing. Perhaps the footage of Jeff rooting Jane on was from the week before but they wanted this challenge to look more dramatic. So I guess I retract everything I've said. Any opinions formed based on any footage immediately makes us morons. Power rankings have no merit at all. They should all equally have a 9-1 shot because the tv show we watch every week is completely unreliable.

Yes, they should cast me. I would be a fantastic player. I have an excellent sense of getting where people are coming from and how to play to that, and I give an air of major trustworthiness. In life, people naturally open up to me and trust in me with very little prompting. I would also be able to hold my own in challenges but wouldn't be close to being considered a threat. I'm very likable but I would be able to downplay it. I have enough self control to not lash out at people that get to me, and not to just spill out info at tribal councils, the way so many have done this season. And I would argue like a politician at the FTC.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Baltimore Jones View Post
Double Down is Probst.
lol
I was actually thinking that someone might think this after I was bashing him, like he's some sort of sad guy who has to go online anonymously and berate himself to try to fish for compliments from complete strangers. I actually met him briefly while getting my phone fixed at Verizon like 5 years ago. He's super short, like 5'4'', 5'5''. Nice dude.


I do apologize for my incredibly long posts of late, but I've kind of been holding my tongue now for a while.
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Old 11-18-2010, 08:51 PM   #3339
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by Double Down View Post
<snip>

FWIW, in the entire history of the show, very very few people in post show interviews have said that they felt like they were edited inaccurately. The fact that the show is edited doesn't automatically discount from reality everything that we're watching.
This might be because of contracts for what it's worth. It also might not be worth them bothering to talk about anymore since it's been repeated ad nauseum through the years by contestants on every reality show.

Quote:
<snip>

lol
I was actually thinking that someone might think this after I was bashing him, like he's some sort of sad guy who has to go online anonymously and berate himself to try to fish for compliments from complete strangers. I actually met him briefly while getting my phone fixed at Verizon like 5 years ago. He's super short, like 5'4'', 5'5''. Nice dude.


I do apologize for my incredibly long posts of late, but I've kind of been holding my tongue now for a while.
There is a Howard Stern thread in OOT fyi. If I see you there I'll know you're JP because he is a huge fan.
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Old 11-18-2010, 10:07 PM   #3340
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Would anyone like an avatar made from one of the survivors gifs I posted in the last few pages or have a suggestion for one from a certain scene in nicaragua?

If so, feel free to ask and I shall do my best to provide you with one

Here is an example of a Jeff Probst gif I just made for cash mahne (upon his request)



Probst: "Uhhhh, God. Naonka, I think I'm speechless."
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Old 11-18-2010, 11:09 PM   #3341
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

OK on the Fabio bandwagon, he clearly tossed that challenge. I dunno why, but I expect some level of shrewdness appear late.
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Old 11-18-2010, 11:24 PM   #3342
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

God Benry puts me on serious tilt.
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Old 11-18-2010, 11:55 PM   #3343
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Down View Post
Some thoughts:

I lost a lot of respect for Brenda's game tonight. Her need to be too proud to scramble was really pathetic, and it would've taken very little work to regain the numbers.
Pride goeth before a fall. Someone needs to remind Brenda that in life as in chess, the queen is the most powerful piece. I mean, even my Everywoman is the master of her domain. Don't be giving up that designation, Brenda.

I'm not sure Brenda could have mended fences with Naonka--I'd never be able to trust her again in Brenda's shoes--but she probably should have tried. She definately should have went to Jane and Holly about how the men were trying to target Jane, but she and Sash made sure Marty went home instead. Paint a picture of her being firmly in their camp and the men posing a significant threat to their alliance if they give up numbers to them. Maybe even subtly throw Sash under the bus. Alas, she was above it.

Quote:
Now, the remaining players are like Iraq after Saddam was removed. There's really no one in charge, so it's just chaos and totally unpredictable.
Part of why it is unpredictable is that you have players like Chase and Naonka who make such sketchy moves for themselves. I mean, Naonka was actually being protected from herself by Sash, Brenda, and Chase. Purple Kelly seemed to be their willing pawn. That's a nice tight block. And the three who are doing the most collaborating are probably willing to go to the end with Na. I believe Dan, Holly, Benry, and Fabio all would have merrily voted Naonka out after she stole the tribe's food if that had been an option. So now she is instrumental in voting out one of her protectors and makes herself much more vulnerable to the people who already wanted her out. Moving forward, she has potentially alienated herself from the other members of her alliance in the game and possibly damaged her chances to make it to the end while simultaneously ensuring that the people who might have given her a vote at FTC now will not. It really looks like she shot herself in the foot, but it looks like she's pretty much been doing that the entire game and she's still in, so...{shrug}

Likewise, I don't see how Chase openly sharing information with the intended targets helps his game. Not only does it damage people's trust in him, but they are also irritated with him for trying to gum up their moves.

Quote:
Also, shame on Sash for not applying what I said from above that Brenda should do. When he saw that the writing was on the wall, he cast his lot in with the rest and in a move similar to all of the floaters that we've ragged on this season, he's now just one of the bunch and has given up being the most powerful person in the game.
I'm not counting Sash out until I see how he responds next week. Maybe he thinks having Brenda around was bad for his game anyway, and has other plans.
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Old 11-19-2010, 12:00 AM   #3344
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

vyk07,

Could I get the first 2 parts of Purple Kelly(minus Marty and Alina part) at TC avatar sized?
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Old 11-19-2010, 12:33 AM   #3345
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I think vyk is pushing all the Benry avatars just to tilt me.
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Old 11-19-2010, 12:54 AM   #3346
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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At this point, it's nearly impossible to give any sort of power rankings because it seems like every week, it's just about who most people feel is currently the biggest threat. So really, all we can maybe say is who is more/less likely to go next week. Really, so much is going to depend on how people use this new position of uncertainty. So...

These rankings aren't necessarily based on who has the best chance of winning, but who appears to be in the best spots right now:

As it is, it seems that Sash, Benry, Chase, NaOnka, and Jane have targets on their back and Fabio, Holly, Dan, and Kelly should be safe for now/

Of course, it really all depends on where the chips fall next episode. I think it's going to come down to who can secure a group of five the fastest and hold fast to that (all the guys, or all the girls+Chase, or all the young folks left, who knows). It really is anyone's game to win. Except for NaOnka, who I feel is drawing dead. I, too, think that this jury will vote on likeability.
The method to my madness went along the following lines. I went on process of elimination, starting at the bottom. Which isn't to say I tried to anticipate who would be voted out next...well, you'll see: 9. Naonka - I just don't think there is any way she can get enough endgame votes to win. Her chances to make final three are non-zero, but I truely believe her chances to win are zero. 8. Kelly - Again, she could certainly make FTC, but because of her lack of an edit I can't believe that she has any chance of winning. So I deem chances as zero, but not because she couldn't get to the end and earn some votes. 7. Dan - Again, could get to the end and maybe get a vote or two. Obviously, other players don't see him as a threat. I think he might have the option to work with men or old ladies. But he brought $1,600 shoes on Survivor, and I just don't think the horrific tragedy of them being drowned and lost at sea will earn him enough sympathy votes. Multiple players have mentioned how he is always talking about having money and being willing to throw it around. Nobody is going to give him more. Also, lack of edit.

With the bottom three out of the way things get shakey, and I may have fallen prey to thinking with my own head instead of the Survivors' heads again. I just feel that 6. Chase, 5. Benry, and 4. Fabio willl be upcoming targets in one way or another. Chase because he blabs information all over the place. So people aren't going to feel comfortable trusting him. Maybe that will change with Brenda gone, but I figure he has damaged his standing with a lot of people. And probably hurt himself not only in moving forward, but in getting jury votes at the end. Benry, might be targeted as early as next week. And if not, he surely will be targeted soon because of his athleticism. Also, he's been going through the entire game without any solid allies. Just doesn't seem to be in a good spot moving forward, but he could go on an immunity run and he could win some endgame votes, I imagine. Fabio is really likeable and gets along with everyone except Naonka. I would find that very threatening and want him out ASAP. Maybe these people will JT him though. I won't complain if they do. I'll just take the opportunity to tease the people who are loving it ITT and who are often the same people who act like floating and voting based on likability are two of the worst kinds of evil.

3. Jane - I thought Marty did her a lot of damage, but it appears Holly has given her new life. She gets endgame points because several of the potential jury members who are left seem to have respect for her. Marty may hold true to his threat and vote for her. She could definately get votes. And she gets moving forward points because she has history of working with people who have decided past vote offs (Holly, Sash, and Chase at New Espada). And also because she could immunity run.

2. Sash - He has relationships with people. I could see him having more than one avenue to pursue in moving forward. All men. Chase and ladies (or all ladies, if you prefer). But, he's also a potential target. Men may not trust him for flipping on Marty. Holly may see him as the next step after getting Brenda out. He may be targeted because of his idol. He's going to have to pick the right route and then play it right. But I like to think he could based on how he has been playing so far.

1. Holly - She made a great move this week and made it look easy. Some of the blame/credit got shifted to Naonka which I actually think is a good thing in keeping her under the radar. I don't know that she will be percieved as such a huge threat and can continue to slide right along while people are trying to pick each other off. She has kind of a redemption edit going after her sandy start. She could definately get there. She could definately win.

Last edited by Soncy; 11-19-2010 at 01:15 AM.
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Old 11-19-2010, 01:04 AM   #3347
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Yes, that is the infamous Dan Lembo

She got on Pay-Less, me I got on gator shoes...
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Old 11-19-2010, 01:12 AM   #3348
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Holly to Jane: We have you, me, Chase, and Nay. We need two more.
Then,
Benry to Holly: So, what happened last night?

Holly (with incredulous tone): Sash and Brenda told you they were voting for Jane, and voted for Marty instead. (No mention of how she herself was voting Marty all the way and was therefore just as enemy to Benry's cause as Brenda and Sash.)

Benry: (Something about being backstabbed.)

Holly: Exactly, so how can you trust Brenda and Sash? (Or me, but we won't go there.) Brenda is really good at challenges. She is going to take you guys out one by one. (And if she doesn't, I will.)

Benry: Yeah, she's got to go.
Then,
Jane to Naonka: Brenda is running this show.

Naonka: Yeah, she's shady, she's got to go.

Obviously, I've paraphrased some of it. But these two made it look really easy to get this snowball rolling. Obviously, it's a good move for Benry and Fabio anyway so it's not like they convinced them to do something bad for themselves. But it wasn't such a great move for Naonka, and she was more than happy to do it.

Does anyone think Naonka was offended by Brenda saying she was a good one to go to the end with because she's been acting up at camp? And doesn't Naonka look like she thinks she is telling the truth when she is lying like a rug?

Last edited by Soncy; 11-19-2010 at 01:18 AM.
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Old 11-19-2010, 01:16 AM   #3349
VarianceMinefield
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

i just think naonka is playing for the win. she isnt content just making it to ftc. i also dont think the holly and jane bond is as tight as you guys think. i see them fighting potentially about chase in the upcoming episodes.
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Old 11-19-2010, 01:39 AM   #3350
Soncy
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield View Post
i just think naonka is playing for the win. she isnt content just making it to ftc. i also dont think the holly and jane bond is as tight as you guys think. i see them fighting potentially about chase in the upcoming episodes.
If Naonka was playing for the win don't you think she might not steal the tribe's food and refrain from flipping everyone the bird at tribal counsel? Don't forget that the trick to winning if you are an @$$hole is to be sitting next to another person who people might not like more than you. Wasn't Brenda one of her only shots at even getting a vote--not that she has a shot. But some people aren't fond of Brenda. Sure, there's no way she beats Brenda, but there's no way she beats anybody. If it came down to Naonka, Brenda, and Dan, Naonka has a real shot at Alina's vote. Is there any other scenario where she can even get a vote? Besides pulling off her mask at FTC and being Tom Cruise under there?
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