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Old 11-14-2010, 10:15 PM   #3026
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by SavageTilt View Post
A thought I had about the merits of booting Marty: if, as editing suggests, the La Flor alliance had broken down and there were two alliances (Benry/Fabio/Marty/Dan and Kelly/NaOnka/Holly/Jane/Chase), then Brenda and Sash are perfectly positioned to be the swing votes together at every subsequent TC. They need to target one of (women+Chase) first so that they still have the numbers to do this, and the best candidate is Chase (to preserve the Marty-Jane feud and distract attention from themselves in the process).

Kelly is also good to have around, because she's not a jury threat (unless the jury is very bitter) and won't lead a rebellion of her own.

As it is, they can still execute this strategy, but they have to either flip one of (women+Chase) or burn Sash's idol to avoid a 5-5 tie. The most likely case is Brenda using magical cocktease powers on Chase to get him to vote for Kelly (since he's close to NaOnka, Jane, and Holly).

Thoughts?
I always have a hard time focusing on these theoretical votes go down like this this and this as if predicting the ramifications of each vote off is that easy. So I'll just share some random thoughts which may or may not be applicable to your post.

If they didn't boot Marty this week, I think they were in real danger that Jane would revolt the next week. I don't know how that revolt would manifest itself, but I completely agree with Marty in that alligning with loose cannons can be dangerous. Also, Marty was one of the few people who was clearly making plans to move himself and others forward in the game and he had some people buying into his schemes. I'm not sure allowing a guy like that to stay in the game is the greatest idea for Sash and Brenda specifically. Also, Marty was attempting to faux target Naonka, with his plan to flush her idol. Well, Sash and Brenda have no desire to flush Naonka's idol at this time. They are pretty happy with their alliance with Naonka. They have been protecting her from her own actions. They both see Naonka as a potential end game keeper so having Marty around stirring her up is probably not in their best interests. If you are going allign with the crazies, you have to be willing to keep them placated or they are liable to blow up and ruin your game.

I agree with the bit about Kelly probably not mustering up a revolt on her own, but disagree with the idea that she is not a jury threat. In theory, she is precisely a jury threat. Spite voting is pretty standard. She would concern me a little if I was in the game with her. People like her. She seems like she's been pretty nice. If the jury was ticked at me for besting them--which is not uncommon, I don't think I'd love to be sitting next to Kelly. The reason I don't rate her higher in my rankings is not that I don't think her position is favorable, it's that her edit has been invisible. I think I can pick her out of a line up now though.
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Old 11-14-2010, 10:32 PM   #3027
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

It's kind of staggering the assumptions people make about Kelly. They've shown us nothing at all. Like we know she won't win b/c of how they tend to edit, but we can't know if she's smart or not from what we've seen. We also can't assume that from their perspective she's not a jury threat. We've heard her say 10 words, how are you guys making these judgments?
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Old 11-14-2010, 10:36 PM   #3028
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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It's kind of staggering the assumptions people make about Kelly. They've shown us nothing at all. Like we know she won't win b/c of how they tend to edit, but we can't know if she's smart or not from what we've seen. We also can't assume that from their perspective she's not a jury threat. We've heard her say 10 words, how are you guys making these judgments?

they only dont edit a winner like this until they do.
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Old 11-14-2010, 10:36 PM   #3029
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I don't think Purple Kelly is a jury threat simply because she's so young and immature. Can you really see people like Marty, Dan, Sash, Benry, etc. handing a brain-dead 19-year-old girl a million bucks? I sure can't.
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Old 11-14-2010, 10:47 PM   #3030
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I don't think Purple Kelly is a jury threat simply because she's so young and immature. Can you really see people like Marty, Dan, Sash, Benry, etc. handing a brain-dead 19-year-old girl a million bucks? I sure can't.
Kos always there to jump in at the right time to look like an idiot.
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Old 11-14-2010, 10:56 PM   #3031
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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I always have a hard time focusing on these theoretical votes go down like this this and this as if predicting the ramifications of each vote off is that easy. So I'll just share some random thoughts which may or may not be applicable to your post.

If they didn't boot Marty this week, I think they were in real danger that Jane would revolt the next week. I don't know how that revolt would manifest itself, but I completely agree with Marty in that alligning with loose cannons can be dangerous. Also, Marty was one of the few people who was clearly making plans to move himself and others forward in the game and he had some people buying into his schemes. I'm not sure allowing a guy like that to stay in the game is the greatest idea for Sash and Brenda specifically. Also, Marty was attempting to faux target Naonka, with his plan to flush her idol. Well, Sash and Brenda have no desire to flush Naonka's idol at this time. They are pretty happy with their alliance with Naonka. They have been protecting her from her own actions. They both see Naonka as a potential end game keeper so having Marty around stirring her up is probably not in their best interests. If you are going allign with the crazies, you have to be willing to keep them placated or they are liable to blow up and ruin your game.

I agree with the bit about Kelly probably not mustering up a revolt on her own, but disagree with the idea that she is not a jury threat. In theory, she is precisely a jury threat. Spite voting is pretty standard. She would concern me a little if I was in the game with her. People like her. She seems like she's been pretty nice. If the jury was ticked at me for besting them--which is not uncommon, I don't think I'd love to be sitting next to Kelly. The reason I don't rate her higher in my rankings is not that I don't think her position is favorable, it's that her edit has been invisible. I think I can pick her out of a line up now though.
All great points. Trying to predict the rest of the game is obviously a difficult endeavour, but Brenda and Sash have to be thinking long term at this point. Simply relying on their old alliance is not going to work, and just trying to survive week-by-week is dangerous in itself.

Who would Jane revolt with? She's not going to enter into any alliance that includes Marty. Brenda and Sash have already seen that Jane and Marty are going to vote for each other until one of them is gone. At this point, the only way in which Jane could successfully lead a revolt is by teaming up with the non-Marty men to oust Sash and Brenda, because removing one of (Chase/Holly/Kelly) means that Jane can only count on the remaining two from that group (perhaps only one if Chase stays). However, the men gain nothing from teaming up with Jane. Firstly, they seemed to be convinced by Marty's arguments about Jane being a threat. Secondly, if Brenda and Sash follow this plan they will have voted with the men already, so what is there to suggest to the men that Brenda and Sash are going to flip again? Lastly, Holly, Kelly, NaOnka, and Jane all hate Marty, and none of them is a rational player (Holly is closest, but she is also acting emotionally), so Brenda and Sash could easily get them to vote out Marty at F10. While it's important to keep NaOnka happy because she's incredibly volatile, this also means she's going to be persuaded more easily. The best route might be targetting Kelly and then filling the final F5 spot with Jane; at that point, they can say to everyone 'See? Marty was right!' and boot her safely.

Who is less of a jury threat than Kelly? From what we've seen, NaOnka, Dan, and Benry are possibly bigger goats. NaOnka and Dan are already in my hypothetical F5 scenario, and it's too risky for Brenda and Sash to keep Benry around because he could easily crush all the remaining challenges and force them to turn on each other.
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Old 11-15-2010, 02:52 AM   #3032
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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All great points. Trying to predict the rest of the game is obviously a difficult endeavour, but Brenda and Sash have to be thinking long term at this point. Simply relying on their old alliance is not going to work, and just trying to survive week-by-week is dangerous in itself.

Who would Jane revolt with? She's not going to enter into any alliance that includes Marty. Brenda and Sash have already seen that Jane and Marty are going to vote for each other until one of them is gone. At this point, the only way in which Jane could successfully lead a revolt is by teaming up with the non-Marty men to oust Sash and Brenda, because removing one of (Chase/Holly/Kelly) means that Jane can only count on the remaining two from that group (perhaps only one if Chase stays). However, the men gain nothing from teaming up with Jane. Firstly, they seemed to be convinced by Marty's arguments about Jane being a threat. Secondly, if Brenda and Sash follow this plan they will have voted with the men already, so what is there to suggest to the men that Brenda and Sash are going to flip again? Lastly, Holly, Kelly, NaOnka, and Jane all hate Marty, and none of them is a rational player (Holly is closest, but she is also acting emotionally), so Brenda and Sash could easily get them to vote out Marty at F10. While it's important to keep NaOnka happy because she's incredibly volatile, this also means she's going to be persuaded more easily. The best route might be targetting Kelly and then filling the final F5 spot with Jane; at that point, they can say to everyone 'See? Marty was right!' and boot her safely.

Who is less of a jury threat than Kelly? From what we've seen, NaOnka, Dan, and Benry are possibly bigger goats. NaOnka and Dan are already in my hypothetical F5 scenario, and it's too risky for Brenda and Sash to keep Benry around because he could easily crush all the remaining challenges and force them to turn on each other.
Jane is probably not going to head up a revolt but she could behave in unpredictable ways at a time when Sash and Brenda need things to go a certain way. At one time, I think they had her firmly in their pocket, but the more they delayed voting out Marty, the less she trusted them.

Most arguments for keeping Marty yet again, fall on my deaf ears simply because he was playing so hard. Making very good arguments. Swaying people to act on his plans. Potentially able to realize that the voting committee actually had some dangerous leadership that should probably be targeted ASAP.

Also, I don't understand why we keep suggesting targeting Kelly. If she is indeed, unlikely to mount a resistance and NOT a jury threat, why are we voting her off? It seems like Kelly and Naonka are firmly in bed with Sash and Brenda.

Let's put it like this: Can we agree that Sash and Brenda feel tightest with Naonka, Kelly, Chase, and Jane? If they have control over some votes, it's with these guys, correct? Then, you have votes like Dan...who is going to follow Marty. Fabio...very likely Marty. Benry seemed to like Marty's thinking. I think Holly had some allegiance with Jane and against Marty, but she also got along well with Dan and Benry and was in the camp that thought that stealing the tribe's food could definately be cause for insta-game over.

I don't know. I just don't see how voting off a vote you feel like you have some control over--and damaging your position with other votes you used to have control over--while strengthening the position of another strong player and keeping two formidable physical opponents in the game could be such a good idea. If they did choose to keep Marty in the game, they'd have to vote out Benry or Fabio wouldn't they? Targeting Kelly or Holly would really blow Sash's cover where he tries to make his decisions seem like they've been made by committee. Also, keeping Marty, Dan, Benry, and Fabio in the game seems particularly risky for Brenda.
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Old 11-15-2010, 03:01 AM   #3033
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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they only dont edit a winner like this until they do.
This is correct, but there's a million reasons why they would never (EVER) edit a winner invisibly like Kelly Purple. Perhaps the most easy-to-understand reason why Kelly can't win is as such: Just think of the reunion, where there's always a montage of scenes outlining the winner's journey through the game. This montage is impossible to put together when someone is never shown.

More compelling people you could make an argument in favor of who have very un-winnerlike edits are Sash and NaOnka. Sash, because he was very invisible from episodes 1-4, and NaOnka for her overwhelmingly negative edit.

But your point is valid, because the edits of all the remaining players break some "rules" of a winner's edit in some way. So, since someone's gonna break the mold, why not Kelly Purple?
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Old 11-15-2010, 03:21 AM   #3034
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Jane is probably not going to head up a revolt but she could behave in unpredictable ways at a time when Sash and Brenda need things to go a certain way. At one time, I think they had her firmly in their pocket, but the more they delayed voting out Marty, the less she trusted them.

Most arguments for keeping Marty yet again, fall on my deaf ears simply because he was playing so hard. Making very good arguments. Swaying people to act on his plans. Potentially able to realize that the voting committee actually had some dangerous leadership that should probably be targeted ASAP.

Also, I don't understand why we keep suggesting targeting Kelly. If she is indeed, unlikely to mount a resistance and NOT a jury threat, why are we voting her off? It seems like Kelly and Naonka are firmly in bed with Sash and Brenda.

Let's put it like this: Can we agree that Sash and Brenda feel tightest with Naonka, Kelly, Chase, and Jane? If they have control over some votes, it's with these guys, correct? Then, you have votes like Dan...who is going to follow Marty. Fabio...very likely Marty. Benry seemed to like Marty's thinking. I think Holly had some allegiance with Jane and against Marty, but she also got along well with Dan and Benry and was in the camp that thought that stealing the tribe's food could definately be cause for insta-game over.

I don't know. I just don't see how voting off a vote you feel like you have some control over--and damaging your position with other votes you used to have control over--while strengthening the position of another strong player and keeping two formidable physical opponents in the game could be such a good idea. If they did choose to keep Marty in the game, they'd have to vote out Benry or Fabio wouldn't they? Targeting Kelly or Holly would really blow Sash's cover where he tries to make his decisions seem like they've been made by committee. Also, keeping Marty, Dan, Benry, and Fabio in the game seems particularly risky for Brenda.
My proposed strategy is based on the assumption that Chase is now closer to the Holly+Jane+Kelly group then he is to Brenda + Sash. If Chase is still Brenda's *****, then Brenda + Sash can just eliminate the other guys and ship it. Obviously Sash and Brenda were in a better position to make that judgement. If they are on the outs, then they're essentially forced to adopt this swing vote strategy. I suggest Kelly as a target because she's the easiest target (if because they don't want to alienate people at F11 or because they need to convince Chase to vote with them + the guys at F10). Chase, as an example, will be more willing to vote for Kelly than for Holly or Jane.

We definitely need to be aware in these discussions that a lot of moves that Sash and Brenda make are going to be a lot better for one than for the other. One of the reasons I rate Sash much higher than Brenda is his ability to convince Brenda to make moves that ultimately serve his own interest. It really is Rafe and Stephenie all over again.
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Old 11-15-2010, 03:44 AM   #3035
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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We definitely need to be aware in these discussions that a lot of moves that Sash and Brenda make are going to be a lot better for one than for the other. One of the reasons I rate Sash much higher than Brenda is his ability to convince Brenda to make moves that ultimately serve his own interest. It really is Rafe and Stephenie all over again.
excellent point that frequently escapes many of the regulars ITT.
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Old 11-15-2010, 07:41 AM   #3036
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Guys,

Is it too much to ask for some random gifs/chops/pics of hot chicks/etc to break up the monotony of the endless blocks of text ITT?

I'll start with Brenda's glamorous former job as hostess on the Hispanic game show Que DiceLa Gente.





Please be considerate with the blocks of text and at least provide cliffs or postsavers (such as above) to make it a little easier on the eyes

Much obliged, thanks
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Old 11-15-2010, 08:18 AM   #3037
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I like the way that blue shirt makes her right tit look.
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Old 11-15-2010, 08:53 AM   #3038
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Also, seething Chase hate

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Old 11-15-2010, 10:40 AM   #3039
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Also, seething Chase hate

Almost got through a whole page itt without any women hating. Nice save Vyk
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Old 11-15-2010, 12:39 PM   #3040
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Almost got through a whole page itt without any women hating. Nice save Vyk
Chase takes a lot of jabs for such a nice guy.
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Old 11-15-2010, 01:35 PM   #3041
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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My proposed strategy is based on the assumption that Chase is now closer to the Holly+Jane+Kelly group then he is to Brenda + Sash. If Chase is still Brenda's *****, then Brenda + Sash can just eliminate the other guys and ship it. Obviously Sash and Brenda were in a better position to make that judgement. If they are on the outs, then they're essentially forced to adopt this swing vote strategy. I suggest Kelly as a target because she's the easiest target (if because they don't want to alienate people at F11 or because they need to convince Chase to vote with them + the guys at F10). Chase, as an example, will be more willing to vote for Kelly than for Holly or Jane.

We definitely need to be aware in these discussions that a lot of moves that Sash and Brenda make are going to be a lot better for one than for the other. One of the reasons I rate Sash much higher than Brenda is his ability to convince Brenda to make moves that ultimately serve his own interest. It really is Rafe and Stephenie all over again.
If Sash and Brenda actually flip to the men, they have to follow Marty's plan to vote off Jane (ending the Marty/Jane war) or they have leave their puppet master positions and step out in the open to shift the target to Kelly/Holly--which they might not even be able to do*. I think it's a bad idea. They'd put themselves in the position of Marty-Benry having sway with the men, and burned bridges between themselves and Chase, Jane, Naonka and whoever was left from Kelly and Holly. That latter group all doesn't like Marty and have shown a tendency to follow their emotions so they may be able to work with that group to get rid of Marty the next week, but there is little chance they'd trust Brenda and Sash after that. I feel like what you are suggesting breaks down to: keeping a strategic thinker and allienating almost everyone else. *And the reason I said they may not be able to shift the target is because sure Marty (+Dan) might be willing to shift his vote to whoever they wanted, but four votes can't get it done. Fabio might have no problem with voting off Holly, but what about Kelly--is he going to be keen on that? And Benry--where does he stand on Kelly and Holly? If Sash and Brenda start saying not Jane, but how about 'x', the men are going to be saying X = Naonka. And Sash and Brenda are going to counter with? we'd rather vote off Kelly because she's been with us since day one, has shown no inclination to drive her own boat, and 'isn't a jury threat' (according to you). What you are suggesting sounds like a giant blow up to me.
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Old 11-15-2010, 02:54 PM   #3042
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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If Sash and Brenda actually flip to the men, they have to follow Marty's plan to vote off Jane (ending the Marty/Jane war) or they have leave their puppet master positions and step out in the open to shift the target to Kelly/Holly--which they might not even be able to do*. I think it's a bad idea. They'd put themselves in the position of Marty-Benry having sway with the men, and burned bridges between themselves and Chase, Jane, Naonka and whoever was left from Kelly and Holly. That latter group all doesn't like Marty and have shown a tendency to follow their emotions so they may be able to work with that group to get rid of Marty the next week, but there is little chance they'd trust Brenda and Sash after that. I feel like what you are suggesting breaks down to: keeping a strategic thinker and allienating almost everyone else. *And the reason I said they may not be able to shift the target is because sure Marty (+Dan) might be willing to shift his vote to whoever they wanted, but four votes can't get it done. Fabio might have no problem with voting off Holly, but what about Kelly--is he going to be keen on that? And Benry--where does he stand on Kelly and Holly? If Sash and Brenda start saying not Jane, but how about 'x', the men are going to be saying X = Naonka. And Sash and Brenda are going to counter with? we'd rather vote off Kelly because she's been with us since day one, has shown no inclination to drive her own boat, and 'isn't a jury threat' (according to you). What you are suggesting sounds like a giant blow up to me.
Why would Fabio or Benry care about voting off Kelly? The men know that they're behind in numbers, they're not stupid. If Brenda and Sash make voting for Kelly/Holly their price for siding with the men, the men have little choice. Kelly being their ally since day one counts for nothing; what matters is whether or not she's closer to Holly/Jane/Chase than she is to Brenda/Sash. As I've said, if Brenda and Sash still feel that they can control Chase and Kelly, then discussion of strategy is irrelevant because either Brenda or Sash is a millionaire unless they screw up; however, if Kelly's and Chase's priorities have shifted, Brenda and Sash are playing for 5th-6th place. If Brenda and Sash feel that booting Holly or Jane will allow them to work better with both groups afterwards, they can certainly do that instead; indeed, they might be able to sell everybody on the Marty-Jane feud being cancerous to the tribe and eliminate Jane and Marty in that order.

The approach I'm suggesting has been tried before: either Burton or JFP would've won PI had they not ****ed up with the F5 reward, and Kenny and Crystal would've made the F3 together with Kenny almost certainly winning (if they vote out Matty at F7 they can eliminate Bob (or Corinne if he wins immunity) at F6, vote out Sugar at F5, then go into a F4 of Ken/Crystal/Susie/Corinne. Corinne leaves at F4 unless she wins immunity, and then Ken crushes the jury vote). It's definitely high-risk high-reward, but sometimes those sorts of plays are the most +EV plays.
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Old 11-15-2010, 03:13 PM   #3043
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Almost got through a whole page itt without any women hating. Nice save Vyk
I'm more of an an equal opportunity hater

I hate Jane just as much, if not more than Chase
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Old 11-15-2010, 03:31 PM   #3044
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

How is this season so far on the 1-10 scale
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Old 11-15-2010, 03:45 PM   #3045
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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How is this season so far on the 1-10 scale
6.5-7 for me.
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Old 11-15-2010, 03:47 PM   #3046
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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How is this season so far on the 1-10 scale
too soon to tell, although the potential sure is there

if either Brenda or Sash wins, it belongs in the top 10 imo

although severely lacking in the strategy department, Nicaragua sure does bring the drama and entertainment

maybe KP might pull out an upset over Naonka and Teflon Dan in F3

I am really enjoying watching Ponderosa w/ Alina and Marty, can't wait for other dynamic personalities to join them and hopefully provide the lulz
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Old 11-15-2010, 04:26 PM   #3047
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I think it is a 7 of 10 right now. But can easily go down to a 5 or up to a 9. Spoiler to the preview below:

Spoiler:
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Old 11-15-2010, 05:10 PM   #3048
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

<3 Brenda's imitation of Chase

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Old 11-15-2010, 05:13 PM   #3049
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Also, I will just leave these here



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Old 11-15-2010, 08:20 PM   #3050
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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How is this season so far on the 1-10 scale
Probably about a 4 in Survivor standards. I tend to think even the worst season of Survivor is better than ~95% of other shows on TV, but from S12 on (post-immunity-idol Survivor), Nicaragua is only better than Gabon and Fiji.

Last edited by K.O.S.; 11-15-2010 at 08:21 PM. Reason: but you should obviously watch it
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