Two Plus Two Poker Forums > OOTV Survivor: Nicaragua
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 11-11-2010, 06:28 PM #2926 cash mahne Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Milwaukee Posts: 7,538 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua Marty interview on Cesternino's podcast plus later today Fairplay will be on!
 11-11-2010, 06:43 PM #2927 vyk07 Wants It More     Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 34,578 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua How can anyone not like this dude?
11-11-2010, 06:48 PM   #2928
dukemagic
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: pau smiled at me!
Posts: 4,899
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dr. Spaceman Oh are there only 9 people? I thought it was 5 on 5 with 1 sitting out. Edit: yeah there's 11... I stick by my answer. All women team: 5/11*4/10*3/9*2/8*1/7
it's not 5/11 for the first term. it doesn't matter if a guy or girl is chosen first as there are two teams, and the team of all girls can be the one that's NOT all guys. so there are two probability trees, one if a guy is chosen first (so the other team is all girls) and one if a girl is chosen first.

if a guy is chosen first, his team needs to continue being all men. also, the person NOT chosen by either team must be a guy. so:
Quote:
 6/11 (chance of a guy being first) * 5/10 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 (extra person sitting out must be a guy) = 1/462
if a girl is chosen first, her team needs to continue being all women. no need to account for the extra person since it will always be a guy in this case:
Quote:
 5/11 (chance of a girl being first) * 4/10 * 3/9 * 2/8 * 1/7 = 1/462
interesting that they're the same...
Quote:
 summing them up since they are mutually exclusive: 1/231 = .43%
so it's unlikely, but not astronomically so. they've had a ton of challenges and this was bound to happen at some point. it just happened to be a particularly poor challenge to split the sexes, making it especially noteworthy.

11-11-2010, 06:54 PM   #2929
dukemagic
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: pau smiled at me!
Posts: 4,899
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

you can also do it chronologically if they alternated, and get the same result (as you should!).

it could be either B-G-B-G-B-G-B-G-B-G-B or G-B-G-B-G-B-G-B-G-B-B

Quote:
 6/11*5/10*5/9*4/8*4/7*3/6*3/5*2/4*2/3*1/2*1/1 = 1/462 or 5/11*6/10*4/9*5/8*3/7*4/6*2/5*3/4*1/3*2/2*1/1 = 1/462
in both cases you ended up with 1/462 again since all you're doing is shifting around numerators and denominators, resulting in the same 1/231 chance as above.

edit: and if you want to get fancier with statistics:

1) total way to split two teams = (11 choose 5)*(6 choose 5) = 2772

2) total ways to get guys vs. girls = (girls team and 6 possibilities for a guy's team, depending on which guy sits out) or (6 possibilities for a guy's team and a girls team) = 12

12/2772 = 1/231

Last edited by dukemagic; 11-11-2010 at 07:10 PM.

11-11-2010, 07:16 PM   #2930
Didace
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 16,849
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ASPoker8 I'd argue that the people Kos is drawn to are in fact the most capable players, but have been surprisingly poor in social game.
Wouldn't the most capable players by definition have a good social game?

 11-11-2010, 07:28 PM #2931 vyk07 Wants It More     Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 34,578 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua only on 2+2 would a TV thread hijack itself to go into in depth analysis of probability
11-11-2010, 07:28 PM   #2932
kartinken
old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: "I'm a villain?"
Posts: 1,989
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Didace Wouldn't the most capable players by definition have a good social game?
Yes, clearly, but good luck selling that here.

11-11-2010, 08:16 PM   #2933
Soncy
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Homeward Bound
Posts: 5,372
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield he has favorites though. doesnt call everyone out. also chase would be with the majority regardless of which side he choose. thought it was real dumb to choose the girls. especially with how he said it. if i was one of the girls id be annoyed at him. "surprisingly i will go with the girls"
Tribal Counsel is 1-2 hours long. He probably calls everyone out. We just don't see it.

11-11-2010, 08:20 PM   #2934
boc4life
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: epicenter of east coast US poker
Posts: 6,910
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dukemagic so it's unlikely, but not astronomically so. they've had a ton of challenges and this was bound to happen at some point. it just happened to be a particularly poor challenge to split the sexes, making it especially noteworthy.
I think you can count on two hands the number of times they've done a pick'em for a post-merge challenge, though.

I also thought it was weird how for the first time ever, Probst decides to ask post-challenge "In this SOCIAL GAME. Have any of you made strong bonds with any of the women, or think someone on the other team deserves it more, and want to give up your spot?"

I dunno, it's probably all just a coincidence...And maybe that question was just inspired by the random men vs women showdown. But I dunno. I wouldn't be totally shocked if everything said publicly would be "it was random, it was random, it was random", but if you got Probst or Burnett drunk enough, they'd admit that it was planned.

Once Survivor won their lawsuit with Stacey Stillman and were defined as NOT a game show, they won the opportunity to do all kinds of rigging. I'm not saying there's tons of game-changing involvement by production like some people think, but when it comes to a F11 reward challenge...Who knows.

 11-11-2010, 08:29 PM #2935 dukemagic Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: pau smiled at me! Posts: 4,899 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua you're right that there's been far fewer "pick-em" challenges than there have been challenges overall, so i'll retract that statement as it doesn't really support my argument. also, i have no problem believing that they would rig something like that. however, part of the reason i think this instance is just a coincidence is because this is such a poor challenge to rig. it obviously favors the guys, substantially more so than a lot of challenges would, and i would think they would want to avoid the claims of rigging as this is particularly noticeable. maybe someone can come up with a compelling reason why they would want the guys to win the reward. or maybe it's just sick 2nd-level thinking by the editors.
11-11-2010, 09:01 PM   #2936
Soncy
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Homeward Bound
Posts: 5,372
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Spike Forehand Unanswered questions for me in what has been - so far- a pretty meh season after the awesome Samoa and H vs. V seasons. - When will Brenda realize that Sash is working on jury management and decide to throw him under the bus? Or is her ego so big that she will overlook that ala Russell? - Will Sash turn on Brenda or will he just try to subtly continue to make jury voters think that she is pulling the strings? - Will Chase wake up and finally realize that with one big move he can put himself in the drivers seat? -Will the producers ever introduce us to Kelly Purple? Or de-introduce us to Naonka? - Who will bitter old Jane hate on next?
Samoa was awesome because it was jam packed with our definition of great players, right? Or because we were so satisfied that the 'right' player won?

Brenda's ego seems kind of big. I think she thinks she can beat anyone in front of a jury. I hope we get to test her theory, but I think she's wrong. I don't think she will Amanda herself in the foot, but I think Sash would be much more difficult to defeat than she imagines.

Does Chase even want to be in the driver's seat? Are we sure he has his driver's license?

Invisible Kelly is super boring and Naonka is super dramatic, so I hope not.

Maybe Brenda and Sash for thwarting her for so long. I'm actually pretty interested to see what she does now that her nemisis is out of the game.

11-11-2010, 09:03 PM   #2937
Soncy
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Homeward Bound
Posts: 5,372
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Didace Wouldn't the most capable players by definition have a good social game?
Ah, the age old debate.

11-11-2010, 09:15 PM   #2938
boc4life
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: epicenter of east coast US poker
Posts: 6,910
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Soncy Brenda's ego seems kind of big. I think she thinks she can beat anyone in front of a jury. I hope we get to test her theory, but I think she's wrong. I don't think she will Amanda herself in the foot, but I think Sash would be much more difficult to defeat than she imagines.
nice observation. Brenda actually says exactly that in one of the online scenes this week.

 11-11-2010, 09:23 PM #2939 dukemagic Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: pau smiled at me! Posts: 4,899 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua yeah i think my ideal final 3 in terms of strategy/actually playing the game is brenda/sash/fabio or brenda/sash/benry. it'll be interesting to see how brenda and sash try and differentiate themselves from the other as it appears they have made most decisions together. note: this does NOT mean that i think any of these players are playing the best game, just that i think they'll bring different things to a discussion of "why they deserve to win" that have nothing to do with their circumstance or being a nice person or whatever. in terms of entertainment, though, i think i'd like a naonka, fabio, benry final 3. holly/dan/jane/chase would be boring for me, while brenda/sash would be fine. and LOL of course i forgot about kelly purple. she's in neither of these groups for me.
 11-11-2010, 09:32 PM #2940 Soncy Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Homeward Bound Posts: 5,372 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua I have to admit this thread confuses me sometimes. One moment, there will be a general sentiment that Survivors casting their victory vote based on who they like or don't like is the worst kind of evil. But then, following the eviction of Marty, do we see all the Marty lovers shifting their backing to Brenda and Sash (who were playing better than Marty anyway)? No. Fabio. Shouts of 'take it home, Fabio,' resound. Now, don't get me wrong. I love the Fabs. I'm fine with backing the Fabs. But I'm not a 'gamer must win or I can't enjoy this' kind of girl. If Chase wins, I'm going to find a way to be content with it because he seems like a really nice guy. I mean, he's not what I prefer in a winner, but I think I can live with it when I'm sure a lot of you would be pretty disappointed if he wins. If we can support Fabio and Coach as players simply because they amuse us, why is it so awful for my Everywoman to root for Holly, who she identifies with? And is it okay for the jury to vote for who they like or not?
11-11-2010, 09:37 PM   #2941
Soncy
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Homeward Bound
Posts: 5,372
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by boc4life nice observation. Brenda actually says exactly that in one of the online scenes this week.
I thought she said it in a scene last week. Haven't watched this week's yet. I actually like the game plan of aligning with another strong player the way Sash and Brenda have done. It has it's perils though.

 11-11-2010, 09:41 PM #2942 cash mahne Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Milwaukee Posts: 7,538 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua I was backing Marty from the beginning as I do when I pick a winner. He was my pick, he is out, and I don't back anyone else. I know just kind of root for an underdog type/someone I like. I think that Benry/Fabio fits that, but it is Sash and Brenda's game to lose, which somehow I think and pray they flip on each other.
 11-11-2010, 09:46 PM #2943 Chilltown SuperMegaElitePoster     Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Asgard Posts: 39,630 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua I want Fabio to win but know he probably won't since Brenda and Sash are steamrolling this season and one of them deserves to win regardless who they're going against.
 11-11-2010, 09:58 PM #2944 cash mahne Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Milwaukee Posts: 7,538 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua As of now Sash/Brenda should win, but I think Fabio is much smarter than his edit and if somehow he and Benry can get some numbers they can run the game. I think Brenda is running the game, but because Sash has an idol so I had him #1 in power rankings. But who does Brenda wan in FTC and who does Sash want? I would imagine PK and NaOnka?
 11-11-2010, 10:34 PM #2945 Clovis8 Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Having a beer with Charles Darwin Posts: 16,503 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua NaOnka confirmed worse social player than Russell and that is saying something!
11-11-2010, 10:47 PM   #2946
vyk07
Wants It More

Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 34,578
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Clovis8 NaOnka confirmed worse social player than Russell and that is saying something!

 11-11-2010, 10:49 PM #2947 vyk07 Wants It More     Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 34,578 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua Teflon Dan will glide to the F3
11-11-2010, 10:52 PM   #2948
kkcountry
BBV MS Paint Rapid Response Squad

Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: dimichele ripped
Posts: 31,242
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Chilltown I want Fabio to win but know he probably won't since Brenda and Sash are steamrolling this season and one of them deserves to win regardless who they're going against.
+1

 11-11-2010, 11:21 PM #2949 Soncy Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Homeward Bound Posts: 5,372 Re: Survivor: Nicaragua Ponderosa: Marty thinks he could have leaned over to Sash and asked for the idol. {clearing throat} Who does he think Sash voted for? LOL, Marty still alienating Alina at Ponderosa. Having trouble letting go...will probably pass eventually. He supports my Survivor-diet theory though. Oh the horror, he shaved and combed his hair down. Marty has some childlike glee to him. I like that about him. Oh man, Marty needed Benry on his tribe swap team. Mindmeld. Now Invisible Kelly is parroting that Marty is a bad person. Isn't that going a bit far? I understand being put off by him, maybe not liking him, or choosing to spend time with him. But it's not like he stole the tribe's food (whether from spite OR strategy). ...Of course, I was pretty sure she would come around this line of thinking way back when she was saying how much integrity he had right after the tribe swap. I just think saying he is a bad person or a bad father is harsh and unfair. ...Oh goodness, invisible Kelly is drawing a bead on Sash's gameplay. I'm reminded of another frequent phrase that annoys me, "Not deserving of the million." or "Not deserving to be in this game." I like Marty's thinking that it's dangerous to be alligned with the mentally unstable. I thought Jane seemed pretty hang dogged this epi. Last edited by Soncy; 11-11-2010 at 11:33 PM.
11-11-2010, 11:30 PM   #2950
Soncy
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Homeward Bound
Posts: 5,372
Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cash mahne As of now Sash/Brenda should win, but I think Fabio is much smarter than his edit and if somehow he and Benry can get some numbers they can run the game. I think Brenda is running the game, but because Sash has an idol so I had him #1 in power rankings. But who does Brenda wan in FTC and who does Sash want? I would imagine PK and NaOnka?
I'm not sure what I think of Fabio's intelligence. He probably is smarter than his edit let's on because his edit portrays him as being pretty dim. I think my issue with his game play is largely based on his passivity rather than his intelligence or lack thereof. He is a likable physical threat. It's generally not a good idea for that type of player to try to slip under the radar. UTRs are generally in the game at the mercy of others. So if you are fairly likeable, you'd have to be thinking your days were numbered. And likewise, if you are a threat to win IICs, people might want to get you out.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Links to Popular Forums     News, Views, and Gossip     Beginners Questions     Marketplace & Staking     Casino & Cardroom Poker     Internet Poker     NL Strategy Forums     Poker Goals & Challenges     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Sporting Events     Other Other Topics Two Plus Two     About the Forums     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum Marketplace & Staking     Commercial Marketplace     General Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     Staking         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Coaching & Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, and Gossip     Poker Goals & Challenges     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     That's What She Said!     Legislation for Poker & Income Taxes for Poker Players     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker General Poker Strategy     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     Poker Theory     Psychology No Limit Hold'em Strategy     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em Strategy     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker Strategy     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community     Tournament Events Other Poker Strategy     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker Live Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker         Venues & Communities         Regional Communities     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Cash Strategy     Tournament Strategy Internet Poker     Internet Poker         Global Poker         BetOnline.ag Online Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics and Society     History     Business, Finance, and Investing     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Travel     Health and Fitness     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:19 AM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top