Quote:
Originally Posted by Soncy
When it comes down to final four there are three ways to get in: Loyalty, have one or two other players be viable jury threats over yourself, or control your own destiny by winning in.
The loyalty in this case is a tricky issue. Sash has no reason to expect loyalty from either threesome. But he has worked closely with Chase and Jane during the game. Even so, the danger of Chase and Jane being more loyal to Holly is a real concern for Sash. So he definately has no loyalty from the other men, but the loyalty Jane, Holly, and Chase have for each other may be a problem for him.
Have other viable jury threats. With the men, there are none. I don't see how Sash could expect those three guys to be stupid enough to take him to the end. Nobody in their right mind would want to get rid of Dan, so he'd have to convince Benry that he was better to take than Fabio or Fabio that he was better to take than Benry. How is he going to do that? They all know Sash got along well with the jury members. So his argument is what, that Fabio and Benry played the exact same nothing game so they should play against him at FTC instead of each other? Fabio is dumb, but is he this dumb?
Choose your own adventure. Dan is not winning immunity, so that's good. But Benry and Fabio are both huge threats especially if the challenge is very physical. If I'm right about the viable jury threat theory, Sash would have to be in a must win situation here. I'm thinking yuck. This scenario does not look like a scenario that a 'keep your options open' kind of guy would relish getting himself into.
Sash may be falling prey to the belief that the most strategic player will win if he makes it to the end, see himself as that player, and therefore not be that concerned about who he faces. He may be incorrectly thinking that Holly and Chase will ax Jane because they think she is such a dangerous jury threat (I'm not even sure about the Jane threat--I really think Marty was just throwing her under the bus). I don't know what exactly is going through Sash's mind, but I know something it going through his mind. And I agree with Probst that Sash is always going to do what he thinks is best for Sash. Maybe he's wrong, but I don't think we can accuse him of following his heart.
Holly is a bigger jury threat than Jane at this point; I think they each get the votes of the other one and Chase, as well as Alina, but Holly has a higher chance of getting votes from Benry and Fabio (and maybe even Dan?!).
If Sash goes with the men, he needs to do one of two things: either get himself in a F4 situation in which a. he is the second biggest jury threat and b. the biggest jury threat is poor at challenges, or cultivate a good relationship with Dan to the point where Dan realizes the fact that he himself can't win and wants Sash to win instead, and start practicing making fire in anticipation of a tie at F4. However, if he can do one of these things, he's a huge favourite to win.
Sash had complete control of how everyone voted at this TC, and he could have used it to engineer one of those outcomes. Instead he acts in such a way that everyone distrusts him, he goes against the men and is seen as backstabbing them in the process, and aligns with three people none of whom he could easily beat anyway and whom he is unlikely to beat now as a result of backstabbing the men. If he had gone to Chase and said 'Look, I like you and want to align with you, but neither of us can beat Holly or Jane in a jury vote. However, I'll work it with my boys to ensure that you stick around as long as possible', he keeps the trust of all the remaining men and doesn't alienate Holly and Jane, who know that they were marked for elimination anyway.