Quote:
Originally Posted by SavageTilt
All great points. Trying to predict the rest of the game is obviously a difficult endeavour, but Brenda and Sash have to be thinking long term at this point. Simply relying on their old alliance is not going to work, and just trying to survive week-by-week is dangerous in itself.
Who would Jane revolt with? She's not going to enter into any alliance that includes Marty. Brenda and Sash have already seen that Jane and Marty are going to vote for each other until one of them is gone. At this point, the only way in which Jane could successfully lead a revolt is by teaming up with the non-Marty men to oust Sash and Brenda, because removing one of (Chase/Holly/Kelly) means that Jane can only count on the remaining two from that group (perhaps only one if Chase stays). However, the men gain nothing from teaming up with Jane. Firstly, they seemed to be convinced by Marty's arguments about Jane being a threat. Secondly, if Brenda and Sash follow this plan they will have voted with the men already, so what is there to suggest to the men that Brenda and Sash are going to flip again? Lastly, Holly, Kelly, NaOnka, and Jane all hate Marty, and none of them is a rational player (Holly is closest, but she is also acting emotionally), so Brenda and Sash could easily get them to vote out Marty at F10. While it's important to keep NaOnka happy because she's incredibly volatile, this also means she's going to be persuaded more easily. The best route might be targetting Kelly and then filling the final F5 spot with Jane; at that point, they can say to everyone 'See? Marty was right!' and boot her safely.
Who is less of a jury threat than Kelly? From what we've seen, NaOnka, Dan, and Benry are possibly bigger goats. NaOnka and Dan are already in my hypothetical F5 scenario, and it's too risky for Brenda and Sash to keep Benry around because he could easily crush all the remaining challenges and force them to turn on each other.
Jane is probably not going to head up a revolt but she could behave in unpredictable ways at a time when Sash and Brenda need things to go a certain way. At one time, I think they had her firmly in their pocket, but the more they delayed voting out Marty, the less she trusted them.
Most arguments for keeping Marty yet again, fall on my deaf ears simply because he was playing so hard. Making very good arguments. Swaying people to act on his plans. Potentially able to realize that the voting committee actually had some dangerous leadership that should probably be targeted ASAP.
Also, I don't understand why we keep suggesting targeting Kelly. If she is indeed, unlikely to mount a resistance and NOT a jury threat, why are we voting her off? It seems like Kelly and Naonka are firmly in bed with Sash and Brenda.
Let's put it like this: Can we agree that Sash and Brenda feel tightest with Naonka, Kelly, Chase, and Jane? If they have control over some votes, it's with these guys, correct? Then, you have votes like Dan...who is going to follow Marty. Fabio...very likely Marty. Benry seemed to like Marty's thinking. I think Holly had some allegiance with Jane and against Marty, but she also got along well with Dan and Benry and was in the camp that thought that stealing the tribe's food could definately be cause for insta-game over.
I don't know. I just don't see how voting off a vote you feel like you have some control over--and damaging your position with other votes you used to have control over--while strengthening the position of another strong player and keeping two formidable physical opponents in the game could be such a good idea. If they did choose to keep Marty in the game, they'd have to vote out Benry or Fabio wouldn't they? Targeting Kelly or Holly would really blow Sash's cover where he tries to make his decisions seem like they've been made by committee. Also, keeping Marty, Dan, Benry, and Fabio in the game seems particularly risky for Brenda.