Marty interview on Cesternino's podcast plus later today Fairplay will be on!

How can anyone not like this dude?

it's not 5/11 for the first term. it doesn't matter if a guy or girl is chosen first as there are two teams, and the team of all girls can be the one that's NOT all guys. so there are two probability trees, one if a guy is chosen first (so the other team is all girls) and one if a girl is chosen first.

if a guy is chosen first, his team needs to continue being all men. also, the person NOT chosen by either team must be a guy. so:
if a girl is chosen first, her team needs to continue being all women. no need to account for the extra person since it will always be a guy in this case: interesting that they're the same... so it's unlikely, but not astronomically so. they've had a ton of challenges and this was bound to happen at some point. it just happened to be a particularly poor challenge to split the sexes, making it especially noteworthy.

you can also do it chronologically if they alternated, and get the same result (as you should!).

it could be either B-G-B-G-B-G-B-G-B-G-B or G-B-G-B-G-B-G-B-G-B-B

in both cases you ended up with 1/462 again since all you're doing is shifting around numerators and denominators, resulting in the same 1/231 chance as above.

edit: and if you want to get fancier with statistics:

1) total way to split two teams = (11 choose 5)*(6 choose 5) = 2772

2) total ways to get guys vs. girls = (girls team and 6 possibilities for a guy's team, depending on which guy sits out) or (6 possibilities for a guy's team and a girls team) = 12

12/2772 = 1/231

Wouldn't the most capable players by definition have a good social game?

only on 2+2 would a TV thread hijack itself to go into in depth analysis of probability

Yes, clearly, but good luck selling that here.

Tribal Counsel is 1-2 hours long. He probably calls everyone out. We just don't see it.

I think you can count on two hands the number of times they've done a pick'em for a post-merge challenge, though.

I also thought it was weird how for the first time ever, Probst decides to ask post-challenge "In this SOCIAL GAME. Have any of you made strong bonds with any of the women, or think someone on the other team deserves it more, and want to give up your spot?"

I dunno, it's probably all just a coincidence...And maybe that question was just inspired by the random men vs women showdown. But I dunno. I wouldn't be totally shocked if everything said publicly would be "it was random, it was random, it was random", but if you got Probst or Burnett drunk enough, they'd admit that it was planned.

Once Survivor won their lawsuit with Stacey Stillman and were defined as NOT a game show, they won the opportunity to do all kinds of rigging. I'm not saying there's tons of game-changing involvement by production like some people think, but when it comes to a F11 reward challenge...Who knows.

you're right that there's been far fewer "pick-em" challenges than there have been challenges overall, so i'll retract that statement as it doesn't really support my argument.

also, i have no problem believing that they would rig something like that. however, part of the reason i think this instance is just a coincidence is because this is such a poor challenge to rig. it obviously favors the guys, substantially more so than a lot of challenges would, and i would think they would want to avoid the claims of rigging as this is particularly noticeable. maybe someone can come up with a compelling reason why they would want the guys to win the reward.

or maybe it's just sick 2nd-level thinking by the editors.

Samoa was awesome because it was jam packed with our definition of great players, right? Or because we were so satisfied that the 'right' player won?

Brenda's ego seems kind of big. I think she thinks she can beat anyone in front of a jury. I hope we get to test her theory, but I think she's wrong. I don't think she will Amanda herself in the foot, but I think Sash would be much more difficult to defeat than she imagines.

Does Chase even want to be in the driver's seat? Are we sure he has his driver's license?

Invisible Kelly is super boring and Naonka is super dramatic, so I hope not.

Maybe Brenda and Sash for thwarting her for so long. I'm actually pretty interested to see what she does now that her nemisis is out of the game.

Ah, the age old debate.

nice observation. Brenda actually says exactly that in one of the online scenes this week.

yeah i think my ideal final 3 in terms of strategy/actually playing the game is brenda/sash/fabio or brenda/sash/benry. it'll be interesting to see how brenda and sash try and differentiate themselves from the other as it appears they have made most decisions together. note: this does NOT mean that i think any of these players are playing the best game, just that i think they'll bring different things to a discussion of "why they deserve to win" that have nothing to do with their circumstance or being a nice person or whatever.

in terms of entertainment, though, i think i'd like a naonka, fabio, benry final 3. holly/dan/jane/chase would be boring for me, while brenda/sash would be fine. and LOL of course i forgot about kelly purple. she's in neither of these groups for me.

I have to admit this thread confuses me sometimes. One moment, there will be a general sentiment that Survivors casting their victory vote based on who they like or don't like is the worst kind of evil. But then, following the eviction of Marty, do we see all the Marty lovers shifting their backing to Brenda and Sash (who were playing better than Marty anyway)? No. Fabio. Shouts of 'take it home, Fabio,' resound. Now, don't get me wrong. I love the Fabs. I'm fine with backing the Fabs. But I'm not a 'gamer must win or I can't enjoy this' kind of girl. If Chase wins, I'm going to find a way to be content with it because he seems like a really nice guy. I mean, he's not what I prefer in a winner, but I think I can live with it when I'm sure a lot of you would be pretty disappointed if he wins. If we can support Fabio and Coach as players simply because they amuse us, why is it so awful for my Everywoman to root for Holly, who she identifies with? And is it okay for the jury to vote for who they like or not?

I thought she said it in a scene last week. Haven't watched this week's yet. I actually like the game plan of aligning with another strong player the way Sash and Brenda have done. It has it's perils though.

I was backing Marty from the beginning as I do when I pick a winner. He was my pick, he is out, and I don't back anyone else.

I know just kind of root for an underdog type/someone I like. I think that Benry/Fabio fits that, but it is Sash and Brenda's game to lose, which somehow I think and pray they flip on each other.

I want Fabio to win but know he probably won't since Brenda and Sash are steamrolling this season and one of them deserves to win regardless who they're going against.

As of now Sash/Brenda should win, but I think Fabio is much smarter than his edit and if somehow he and Benry can get some numbers they can run the game.

I think Brenda is running the game, but because Sash has an idol so I had him #1 in power rankings.

But who does Brenda wan in FTC and who does Sash want? I would imagine PK and NaOnka?

NaOnka confirmed worse social player than Russell and that is saying something!

Teflon Dan will glide to the F3

+1

Ponderosa: Marty thinks he could have leaned over to Sash and asked for the idol. {clearing throat} Who does he think Sash voted for?

LOL, Marty still alienating Alina at Ponderosa. Having trouble letting go...will probably pass eventually. He supports my Survivor-diet theory though. Oh the horror, he shaved and combed his hair down. Marty has some childlike glee to him. I like that about him.

Oh man, Marty needed Benry on his tribe swap team. Mindmeld.

Now Invisible Kelly is parroting that Marty is a bad person. Isn't that going a bit far? I understand being put off by him, maybe not liking him, or choosing to spend time with him. But it's not like he stole the tribe's food (whether from spite OR strategy). ...Of course, I was pretty sure she would come around this line of thinking way back when she was saying how much integrity he had right after the tribe swap. I just think saying he is a bad person or a bad father is harsh and unfair. ...Oh goodness, invisible Kelly is drawing a bead on Sash's gameplay.

I'm reminded of another frequent phrase that annoys me, "Not deserving of the million." or "Not deserving to be in this game."

I like Marty's thinking that it's dangerous to be alligned with the mentally unstable.

I thought Jane seemed pretty hang dogged this epi.

I'm not sure what I think of Fabio's intelligence. He probably is smarter than his edit let's on because his edit portrays him as being pretty dim. I think my issue with his game play is largely based on his passivity rather than his intelligence or lack thereof. He is a likable physical threat. It's generally not a good idea for that type of player to try to slip under the radar. UTRs are generally in the game at the mercy of others. So if you are fairly likeable, you'd have to be thinking your days were numbered. And likewise, if you are a threat to win IICs, people might want to get you out.