There's so much I wanna say in a reply to this, but:

A) Some of it beats a dead horse re: manipulated editing/viewers

B) Some of it directly addresses Kos freaking out about "these idiots letting Brenda and Chase wedge between two alliances", not fair for me to respond to your post with that, Soncy.

and C) Some of it continues the televised poker FTs/Survivor analogy, which I think is pretty good, but I'm pretty sure everyone on 2p2 hates poker analogies, so I won't do it.

Very insightful.

Chase blew it. After the teams were drawn he had the perfect out. He picks the guys and makes some comment that it looks like the "draw" made his decision, not him.

The reason is this is good is that totally defelcts resposibility for his choice, he doesn't tick the guys off , and the women are not really respecting his token move of switching anyway. He made it look like he was being politically correct or something, but he really didn't impress either group. He looked kind of lame, and gets no feast.

Also, imagine if the women win and he comes back as the only guy who got to feast????

But, onto the women winning....

Shame on Survivor for having the competition look like training camp for a Junion High Football team, and not having a process to ensure there were at least two women on each team. Watching Brenda bouce of the bamboo was..lol., and watching the women bounce of the wall.... well.......nice play Survivor.....

I wouldn't have a problem with either of them winning, they seem to be playing pretty solid games if you ignore the shoe dumping.

Edit: I suppose I'd be annoyed if KP won since they have shown all of 3 minutes of her this season.

A+

Fabio winning this season would be terrific.

Agreed. He was even my pre-season pick I still don't understand the Benry love though. Why would people want him to win or think he can (meaning vyk and others, not you)? I guess I am just missing something.

These are not mutually exclusive. Example: I can be a fan of the game and also understand that the vast majority of players make simple, devastating errors consistently.

While I have respect for the people Kos roots for, it is with the knowledge that they are playing close to optimally given rational opponents. I believe the optimal strategy for a typical casting of a survivor season is to lay extremely low, avoid conflict and mistakes, and hide your intelligence/strategy.

I agree with all of this. One thing to consider is that the contestants who have been intelligent and strategic so far in survivor's history have also tended to be unaware of social aspects of the game. I'd argue that the people Kos is drawn to are in fact the most capable players, but have been surprisingly poor in social game.

Benry is finally coming into his own into the role of the darkhorse douchebag, underdog candidate. He is certainly one of the people next on the chopping block, and him somehow squeaking out an improbably win would be highly comical given Brenda/Sash's majority group.



Given my loathing for the majority group, a Fabio win would be absolutely spectacular. I will also settle for a Teflon Dan win (dude sure is resilient lolz)



I'm an underdog type of guy (no matter how useless (Dan), clueless (Fabio) or reeking of douchebaggery (Benry) the underdog happens to be)

I'm not sure how you inferred any of that from my post. I can see why the whole 6-4/5-5 thing might make you think I'm suggesting that they turn on each other next week, but all I'm suggesting is that if they were to turn on each other Sash would be ahead because, idol aside, he's closer than Brenda to the people he'd need to coopt into any plan to boot her (i.e. outsiders like Benry, Dan etc.). One of the reasons it makes sense for them to turn on each other at some point is that they are the only two thinking players in the game; I would be reluctant to suggest it if I thought Marty was a good player capable of leading some sort of counter-attack, but he's not. It's a shame, because he's clearly an intelligent man, but his actions over the past four episodes have been driven by emotion.

Keeping Marty was perfect for Sash: Marty hates Brenda, as proven by his aggression towards her back at La Flor and his attempt to vote her out at the TC at which KB was booted. However, Marty trusts Sash to the point where he was willing to give him his most valuable lifeline in the game. When he spares Marty, he knows that Marty will always try to target Brenda before him and that Marty will vote for him to win instead of Brenda. In addition, the Marty-Jane feud puts a target on either Marty or Jane (whoever it's convenient for them to boot first), ensuring that the outsiders don't do what they should do and team up to boot Sash, who has the added benefit of knowing that Marty and Jane's votes and strategic prowess are irrelevant since they're always going to vote for each other! What more could he want?

An example which conveys my point about Brenda and Sash nicely is Rob C. booting Deena. That fractured his major alliance in the short-term, but it ultimately worked because he knew that, once he booted Deena - the only remotely strategic player left in the game - he could repair any damage and seize total control himself.

I see what you're saying now. Say you're Benry though. You want to enlist Holly and Kelly. Who do you send on reward? You want Brenda gone from camp, because it's going to be harder to turn people like Kelly while Brenda's there. Yet if you send Brenda on reward, are Holly/Kelly going to be convinced that you're trying to overthrow Brenda (Kelly cried because she didn't get food ffs)? On the other hand, if you trade your spot with Holly/Kelly, any gratitude they might feel towards you is overshadowed by the fact that the players on the other team have the first shot at forming an alliance with them.

Maybe I'm just seeing a problem where there isn't one. Your argument definitely makes sense. I do think though that the decision to switch for every person after the first is going to be determined largely by who swaps with who.

I'm struggling to come up with a scenario in which the majority could've been overthrown this week, assuming no Brenda/Sash battle. B/S/N are a solid three. Jane is voting for Marty and will not enter any alliance that involves Marty, and B/S/N know this. Kelly has some emotional gripe against Marty and won't align with him. That leaves Marty/Dan/Chase/Holly/Benry/Fabio. Chase won't vote for B/S/N/J, so that leaves Kelly. It seems like the only thing that could have happened is those six voting for Kelly, but that would require Holly going against her dislike of Marty and Chase deciding to piss off B/S/N, who happen to be his three closest allies. The best strategy for each person on the outside might just be to try earnestly to become Sash's BFF.

P.S. +1 to everything ASPoker8 said.

P.P.S. vyk, can I shotgun the Benry avatar?

This weeks Power Rankings we are doing a Top 10, instead of a Top 5. It is interesting to see the points system and it seems that there are 2 players really close to each other, then a gap, then 2 more players close to each other for the entire Top 10.

Once again Sash and Brenda got all the #1 and #2 votes, respectively. If you want to see how everyone voted, CLICK HERE.

The Top 10:

1. Sash (150)

He seems to be the only truly sensible person at this point, and Brenda is the only one who can compete with him strategically. He's got a really easy path to the finals now, too, so I think he's far and away the top pick. (Kos13)

2. Brenda (100)

For me as a viewer it's close with Brenda and Sash, but I think Brenda has been a little more combatative with other players. It could end up hurting her. (Soncy)

3. Holly (64)

She's floating by, making friends with everybody, and she's in with everybody. She's higher than Kelly because I think Holly is a more rational player, even though both of them are primarily driven by emotion. (SavageTilt)

4. Chase (63)

He could easily be number one or two, but he is paranoid which makes Brenda question his loyalty and ultimately could be his demise. (Cash Mahne)

5. Fabio (48)

perennial dark horse laying under the radar, with good relationships with most of the cast outside Naonka, and a penchant to win an immunity or two here or there. (vyk07)

6. Benry (42)

potential longshot thanks to his challenge prowess, but he appears to be next on the chopping block, finding himself on the wrong side of the numbers (vyk07)

7. Jane (28)

I used to like her as a floater, but I think Marty may have succeeded in damaging her chances to get to the end enough that I had to drop her in the ranks considerably. (Soncy)

8. Purple Kelly (26)

Same as Holly. It's possible the two should be swapped because Kelly has had an alliance with Brenda/Sash for longer than Holly has, but I like this configuration for now. (SavageTilt)

9. NaOnka (10)

Everyone might not like her and because of that she might be able to make final 3, and she likes to talk so maybe she can talk her way into a couple votes or even the Million. (Cash Mahne)

10. Dan (9)

He doesn't even seem to care about winning, which is why he should be a lock to make the FTC. Of course, this cast is dumber than a bag of dicks, so he'll probably go home next week. (Kos13)

This weeks point system was as follows from 1-10:

30, 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1

you sure can (i resized it to avatar size for you)

his signature phrase that I keep hearing is



"woooooohaaaaaaahoooo"

+1 to the most interesting person just got voted off, zzz.

I'll bring it back up: this tribal council clearly showed how different Russell and NaOnka really are. They both play with emotion but it's in totally different spectrums and NaOnka is totally more evil of a person. But I'm just a woman-hater and/or a racist, clearly.

Fabio or Sash would be fine winners I think. Fabio's aware of his role and status in the tribe and I don't think he's in jeopardy... if he's not the winner, he's out in 4th or 5th imo. Also aside from the dirt squirrel comment last week at tribal (granted which was ridiculously out of left field...), I don't really get how Benry has suddenly become Public Enemy #1. Chase, Holly, Jane, Dan, Kelly... all make for very boring winners. I want sparks to fly, not for someone to walk into a $1M by being the de facto least hated.


As for the preview, my guess is that somehow the fire got out of control or something and their shelter and their possessions/food burned up. I don't see how a dead animal at camp could be the spoiler. Maybe somebody got injured but those would be weird reactions out of Holly and Benry.

Naonka and Fabiola going at it doggy style in the middle of camp IMO.

Sorry to spoil it for you guys, but what actually happened was that the group walked in on Naonka and Dan doing the dirty.

I'm no math whiz but I just tried to calculate it and got the odds at 1 in 462. Someone tell me if that's way off.

Is it 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6? 1 in 126?

its about tree fiddy

Oh are there only 9 people? I thought it was 5 on 5 with 1 sitting out.

Edit: yeah there's 11... I stick by my answer.
All women team: 5/11*4/10*3/9*2/8*1/7

no more Marty, more screen time for Jane and Naonka. i dont think im watching anymore. ill download and just skim the episode.

Clearly I suck at estimating probabilities

I seem to recall talking about the "random" team selection with a couple friends about a season or two ago. Maybe it was Samoa, I seem to remember a challenge were the Foa Foa and Galu's got split almost perfectly on each team.

New Boston Rob avatar for cash mahne:

you have your pick from these two I just made

"something just doesn't feel right"





"i don't know..."

Unanswered questions for me in what has been - so far- a pretty meh season after the awesome Samoa and H vs. V seasons.

- When will Brenda realize that Sash is working on jury management and decide to throw him under the bus? Or is her ego so big that she will overlook that ala Russell?

- Will Sash turn on Brenda or will he just try to subtly continue to make jury voters think that she is pulling the strings?

- Will Chase wake up and finally realize that with one big move he can put himself in the drivers seat?

-Will the producers ever introduce us to Kelly Purple? Or de-introduce us to Naonka?

- Who will bitter old Jane hate on next?

Is that the crip walk?