Quote:
Originally Posted by Soncy
KOS, I respect you. But I feel your analysis is often a little too on the robotic side. You are mostly spot on...in theory. But I don't feel like you properly account for the personell at times. You are generally right IF players are always going to do what is best for themselves. But there are two major problems with the big if. Sometimes (often?) players have no idea what is best for themselves (Fabio?/Alina?). And sometimes they don't have a huge interest in doing what is best for themselves (Invisible Kelly?/Dan?). I probably wouldn't mind being in a larger than ideal alliance if there were several clueless/careless players in it and the other ones were primarily loyal to ME. I'd feel like I had all kinds of options. Yeah, the thing is going to break up, but I may feel confident I can control the split in my favor and possibly even have an option A, B, and C which are all viable.
Also, I'll add a third issue and that is that sometimes players may be aware what is best for themselves and have a desire to do what is best for themselves, but have very little power to impact their own situation. Am I remembering correctly that Eliza was a sitting duck because she could not muster any support for herself? It seems like I remember her knowing she was in trouble and attempting to scramble, but not being able to get anything accomplished because her only ally thought a crudely sharpened stick might be an immunity idol.
Well yes, what I said assumes people are playing somewhat rationally. However, even the dumbest of players understands this point on its most basic level: when you're at the bottom of the pecking order, you have to flip. Maybe they don't all do it right away (or wait too long to do it), but they all understand it. Mick and Jaison in Samoa understood this, and that's why Russell wore his idol at F7...but they weren't smart enough to flip. They did, however, at least consider it.
When you say you can "split it in your favor," you're making the same point I am. If you have an alliance, and there's a smaller sub-alliance in it, you've already "split" without realizing it. Again, there's a huge difference between being aligned with someone (i.e. you want to continue playing with them) and merely voting with them. Ideally, everyone would vote with you, but you don't want to be aligned with/loyal to all of them.
So glad you brought up Eliza, which is a great example. Eliza was a sitting duck because there were ten people left, and she was down 8-2. There was no reason for any of the 8 to jump ship because they need 6 votes to do it and only 5 at the next vote. Sure enough, at the next TC, they used Jason (Eliza's surviving ally, who was down 8-1) to boot Ozzy. Then, when they didn't need Jason anymore, they booted him at the very next TC. Perfectly executed by the girls: use the free vote to make a big move, then boot him before he can flip again.