It said something like a public display of affection causes one castaway to question another castaway.

I kept waiting for something to happen, thought benry might do something to alina after they won that challenge lol.

I guess they could have meant emotion instead of affection and were referring to alina's breakdown at the reward, but I did double check to make sure I read it correctly

So this episode was mind-boggling. What happened to Marty?! He went from HBIC with balls of steel to a defeated, empty shell in the space of one episode. Having moral qualms about voting for Jill is stupid. She's not going to care when you're back in the US, and survival in the game is much more important than any temporary tension it might lead to. Consider what happens if Marty keeps the idol. The Brendashians are forced to split the votes again; if they do this properly, Marty is forced to burn the idol. However, since no-one ever does it properly, if Marty votes for Jill he keeps the idol and - as we know - makes the merge in a position that isn't actually that bad. As it is, he took a needless risk in order to become Sash's disposable bitch. I actually think taking out Jill was a good play on Sash's part, but he wiped out any gain from that in his stupid faux pas at TC. One wonders what would have happened if Jill had just kept the idol clue to herself...

I really don't get why people are hating on this season. Every season is going to look boring compared to HvV, but this is a solid season imo. We've had a lot of good moments, a lot of good characters, and a pre-merge that played a lot like a post-merge. I guarantee you that you won't be complaining after next week; merge episodes are always good, and merges at F12 are more exciting still.

Let's assume the LaFlor superalliance regroups. We have Brenda, Sash (+ HII), Chase, NaOnka (+ HII), Jane, Fabio, & Kelly as one unit. Alina and Benry appear to be close, Dan and Marty are tight, and Holly seems to get along well with everyone on NuEspada. I know Kos thinks being in the minority is usually an advantage, and often I'd agree, but I think that's completely off-base here. The problem is that there is no-one in the superalliance that has both an incentive and the awareness to flip. Brenda and Sash are locked in (although this can and should change, as I'll go into a minute). NaOnka is emotionally tied to the Brendashians, is in a relatively good position among them compared to the sixth wheel status she'd be guaranteed with Alina/Benry/Holly/Marty/Dan (I'll call them the Misfits), and isn't clever enough to recognise opportunities to flip anyway. Chase is Brenda's pawn (and it's in his interest to remain in this position; she will want to keep him around as a proxy second vote, and he can get her targetted as a threat if need be. Of course, Brenda has him completely whipped, so this probably won't actually happen).

That leaves three people. Kelly is in the best position in the game right now imo. She is seen as a dutiful third vote by Brenda and she is completely UTR. The only way she doesn't go deep is if the Misfits somehow gain the majority/parity, and target the person least likely to have an HII (ala the Heroes targetting Jerri at F10). She is also in a great position to flip, but she quite obviously isn't a good enough player to do this effectively. What about Fabio? He too is clueless. This week and last week he should have flipped, but was easily intimidated back into the fold by Brendash. That leaves Jane, who will not flip to join an alliance with Marty in it and who is destined to become the Denise of the season (unless Dan fills that role). The people who should flip to the minority alliance are all deluded about their position in the superalliance and are irrational players. If I had to be one of the players though, I'd want to be milking my own milk.

What should Brendash's next move be? I propose that it is right for Brenda to boot Sash at F12, if she has the numbers to do so. NaOnka is (probably) closer to Brenda, Chase is closer to Brenda and Kelly is closer to Brenda. Everyone else in the game is either closer to Sash or more likely to align with Sash. Marty? He hates Brenda and owes his survival to Sash. Dan? Will follow Marty. Alina? She and Brenda hate each other, but she doesn't seem that hostile towards Sash. Benry? Will probably follow Alina, and is more likely to align with a guy like Sash anyway. Jud? Not gonna go against a bro. Similar reasons can be found for almost everyone left in the game (except maybe Holly, but she is likely to follow Alina/Benry imo). This suggests two things: firstly, that Brenda is unlikely to beat Sash in a jury vote; and secondly, that Sash will be able to flip the game around at F9/F7 if he deems it necessary. Add that to the fact that Sash has an idol and has just told Brenda he wouldn't trust her with it, and you have a sound case for booting Sash at F12 imo.

re. Dan being likely to go deep: now that I think about it, I can remember lots of old women who were dragged along as goats, but no old men in recent seasons.

re. splitting the votes: on closer reflection, vyk's solution doesn't work . If you're in a 6-2 majority facing an idol + individual immunity, it makes sense to split the votes 4-2 rather than 3-3. This prevents the pair from doing what vyk suggested: they now have to put both their votes on one person and hope, rather than getting two chances to get it right. It also means that the idol has to be used, since otherwise a tie is forced and the idol-holder is eliminated on the revote (if you're competent ldo)