Relatively UTR is one thing. Completely invisible for a 4 episode stretch is another. Good luck finding another winner who went through anything close to that.

Anyone ever try to sync up this board with watching on delay, just advancing the board enough to stay even with the time stamps on the post?

(Got blocked in Germany from cbs.com and didnt have time to try the work around)

No clue whats going on this season

No clue what you're talking about.

Yeah I do that when I watch on the west coast.

Cut off the rest of your post because nothing that follows could make that sentence true.

But as we have seen that tribe doesn't always make logical moves.

But it can also be a big burden as well like what Soncy has pointed out. Some people go after people with idols until they are flushed out, or that person is gone. Latley we have gotten quite a few blindsides, but if they see Fabio, and Kelly talking a lot smart players will pick up on it. Remember what Boston Rob said? People who are sleeping together are more likely to be in alliances or working together.

It is all theory but big alliances do break down and I don't expect this one to be much different eventually. We don't know where Kelly's head is at in the game, and Fabio looks like he could potentially be open to flipping to Marty. Post merge is when these things will likely happen when Chase, Ben, and Na come back in to the fold. If these people are smart they will realize that they can only go so far, and likely most do know where the pecking order is as far as who is at the top. Once we get to individual immunity and they do the elimination by taking out each other should be a wake up call to where they are if they don't know already.

I think Marty knew from earlier prior to tribal that he was potentially safe up until the fireworks happened with Brenda, at which point he made a huge gamble of not using the idol. Shouting out to vote for Brenda was a stupid move on his part, because it puts a even bigger target on his back with Brenda now that she knows he is gunning for her.

My guess is that next week Brenda, and Sash will try to make a play to get Marty to give them the idol, while planning to take him out if he does. Marty doesn't give it up, and depending on the Fabio situtation Fabio, Marty, or Jill goes home if the yellow team loses. Marty is awe struck, and is to egotistical to give someone the idol, not to mention it is a stupid move to make.

Judgement at final tribal council has more to do with what type of players are playing that season, and if they are voting with emotion or revenge vs who played the best gameplay. Russell got screwed with his first cast, and either Parvati or he should have won the second one. But they got another flakey jury who were to pissed off at people to vote on how people played using strategity.

Well you said he wasn't a douche. If one, or more people think he is a *******, he IS A *******!

Six days in and two people hate him. Then the snowball effect starts happening like what happens in high school. One girl starts the she wears awful clothes, she's not cool! Then all of the other kids start, and it rols into a sheepish mentality.

Do you not think Na is a bitch? But yet do the remaining people on the younger tribe think otherwise?

.

What is what I am trying to figure out. lol When someone does something stupid doesn't that mean it is valid that they are stupid? The yellow tribe decided to vote off a non threat, for a guy who is a bigger threat with a idol.

But this happens in reality. People who go on these shows do go into them with blank knowledge as to what happens in the game, and this happens quite a lot especially on shows like BB where they don't know anything about the game until the producers give them specific DVD's of what they want them to watch, and who they should watch, and try to cater their gameplay too.

Bad? Nope! You get rid of the strongest players, for weaker people who you can beat when individual immunity starts. Tyrone was the biggest athletic threat, and Yve was was a much stronger player mentally, and physically compared to Dan. Not to mention Dan has been pushing to want to go home, and they may have thought he may even quit in the future. Would you rather want to play against strong players such as Marty, Yve, and Tyrone? Or would you rather go against people like Kelly, and Dan? Most people would want to go against weaker people, not to mention Tyrone likely eats more then others, and when you are out there eating only 100 calories a day you can knock out two birds with one stone.

They may have also thought that if they had a chance to get rid of a strong threat like Tyrone then why not get rid of him now? Which is a smart move that the yellow team did not do by not getting rid of Marty who also has a idol! With power on their side they figure that they could possibly lose more challenges and until it gets to a tough situtation why not keep Dan? He's a great guy to go against in individual immunity.

And I don't know if they had the option of seeing Russell's second season as I don't know when they exactly filmed this season. On Russell's second season no one but Parvati knew about Russell, and they weren't allowed to ask him about the season he was on.

I am thinking about what I write, as I am typing up information that is out there about this game. The only thing they changed about this game and they way they find idols is that they went to using pictures vs written clues that they feel are more helpful to Russell.

And don't you think that the producers also helped Russell along the way? Especially in the second season? They may have figured out that Russell was going to be their star of the show, and placed idols easier for him to find to keep him in the game longer. MTV got into trouble for doing this on their RW/RR Challenge shows. And BB is known to do this on their shows. Reality shows are less reality more scripted with heavy, heavy production involvement. Something Survivor is known for in great deal. Remember the rice incident from season 2? Guess how the rice got to the other side of the river? Not by water, but by production, and HUMAN HANDS!!!

Jeff is about to go home on BB two seasons ago, and what happens? BB gives him a power to stay in the game that keeps him in longer for television ratings! Boston Rob from last year falls down, hits his head on a rock, and BOOM HE IS BACK AT IT in no time!

Willpower may not help you get the idol, but it DRAMATICALLY INCREASES your chance of FINDING IT! And if you know you are the next to go, why wouldn't you waste all day looking for it? Especially on this team that doesn't get rid of a guy with a idol when they have the chance?

The show is not totally rigged, but producers DO have a hand in trying to shift how the show goes. Production CAN'T make you vote a certain way, or totally predetermine the outcome of the game, but they can make challenges specifically for people in what they believe is their best skil, and during their regular confessionals they do try to sway people to do what they want!

Thank you, that is EXACTLY MY POINT! There IS NO DIFFERENCE!

But what good are future plays when you are not in the game because you know... you are voted... off??? lol So he keeps the idol, even knowing he is in danger to the point where he creates a even bigger threat by openly against one of the big wigs on the team.

Nope that isn't what I am saying at all if you understood mine, and others points of view on this subject. If you have seen the show before then you would know it is better to actually be able to play another week then to go home.

Because as what you have said, what is one more week. Well my question is then what is going out 9th to 11th?

Marty doesn't use the idol this week, goes home because he doesn't play it, and his game is over is certain.

Right play, right play, it is all about right plays. If the yellow team would have done the right move, then Marty would have done the wrong play this week, and he wouldn't have any other chances to change the whole game. In theory he uses it, finds another idol, something happens at camp where they vote off one of their own, they go after Jill instead because they fear her getting sympathy votes, etc, etc, etc which all can take Marty further into the game where he has a chance at winning it also!

Me: Airtime means nothing as other players have gone far throughout the season with a ton of airtime.
You: But Sash has very little airtime so that means he is going to WIN the game!!!

Power rankings mean very little to me, because so much things can change, and Sash has a lot against him in the future to be able to get to the end.

So do you want me to go look up spoilers for you and post if Sash gets eliminated, and if he does what place he does?

I certainly am not making unfalsifiable claims I am just pointing why your argument doesn't work because it is too FAR from the END!!!

Sure people have gone under the radar and won. But there are many who did quite the opposite which makes my point very much VALID!!!

That just seems to be a string of unrelated sentences. The idol is NEVER a burden if played correctly. I can't think of a situation in which having an idol automatically leads to a worsening of your situation in the game (since you can just play it if you're in danger).

Yes, as we seem to have both realised, these things are most likely to happen post-merge. That means that they're completely irrelevant to this discussion, which is about whether Marty's decision and his short-term future.

Your enemy is NEVER going to send you correct signals. If Brenda's trying to start a fight involving Marty, his first thought should be that he's less likely to be in danger, not more.

Yes, he took a huge gamble. He had to take a huge gamble to have a reasonable chance of making the merge. In addition, as I've pointed out in every one of these chats we've had, the risk is significantly reduced if Marty/Jill follow the plan of identifying the two most likely sacrificial lambs and splitting their votes between them.
Two people out of THIRTEEN. That does not a douche make. And yes, I'm confident the remaining teens think NaOnka is a bitch. Alina obviously hates her, and Brenda/Sash don't seem to be showing any warmth towards her. Chase comforted her, but he's the sort of person who'd do that for anyone. We have no idea what Benry and Kelly Purple think, but I doubt the editing is painting an inaccurate picture.



...what

...what are you talking about?

Yes, I know that this happens! But it shouldn't. Why can't you grasp that distinction? The fact that something is true doesn't mean that it should be true. You can't make excuses for them (if that's what you're doing) on the grounds that they cba to research the show.

Tyrone is not a 'strong player'. He's strong physically, yes, but that's a reason to keep him around so that you can win challenges and your teammates on La Flor can eliminate the strategically threatening duo of Marty + Jill (if they're competent obv. ;/). Dan quitting is the best counterargument, but eliminating Dan is much safer.

Tyrone being potentially good at challenges isn't that important. Firstly, the challenges are often less about physical strength than about dexterity, puzzle-solving ability etc. Secondly, there will still be oldies for them to eliminate post-merge. Thirdly, the perception of Tyrone as a physical threat is great for someone like Benry, who can use Tyrone as cover until he wants to try for an immunity run himself.

No, they also changed the fact that you can't put your hand into a crevice in a tree or under a rock and pull out an idol. I mentioned this last time.

Did you read what I wrote? The nature of the clues is irrelevant because their approach to placing the clues is different. It makes no difference if the clue is switched from 'dig here yo' to a picture of a spade and an arrow pointing to a location. If the idol is underground, it's going to be virtually impossible to find it without a clue. If it's tucked under a bridge? Not so much.
I've obviously seen the show before. I don't need you to tell me that 'it is better to actually be able to play another week then (sic) to go home'. What everybody here has been telling you, and what you either won't or can't accept, is that the best play in the long-term is not always the 'safest' one in the short-term. If Marty makes the right play at the tribal council we are discussing (not at future ones, I have no idea where you got that from), he is very unlikely to go home, and very likely to be in a much better position at every subsequent tribal council. That is worth the tradeoff of the increased risk of going home today.

You're saying that Marty should give up the chance of making an educated guess at who the sacrificial lamb will be so that he might be the beneficiary of random luck next week? What sort of strategy is that?

Stop being obtuse. We weren't discussing how much airtime 'other players' have had, we're discussing winners. I said Sash was in the best position to win the game, and the response was that his lack of airtime made this unlikely. I then gave examples of winners who had received little airtime by this stage of the game. At no point did I say that Sash would win BECAUSE of his lack of airtime. FFS.

Name it. If you're not going to provide rational arguments, then why should we care how much power rankings mean to you?

I'm aware that you're probably just trying to make a point, but no, we definitely do NOT want you to do that. Don't even joke about spoilers.

My argument was that Sash's lack of airtime so far does not prevent him making the end. I provided evidence to support this point. You waved your hands and said that it's 'too FAR from the END!!!'. At what point would you be happy with people making predictions?

How does it make your point valid? The only way your point would be valid is if there had been no UTR winners and there were good theoretical reasons why there couldn't be any.

said it before, I'll say it again. The amount of time that Sash was completely invisible (FOUR STRAIGHT EPISODES), would be totally unprecedented for a winner of Survivor.

I'm not saying it's impossible, because there's clearly some care being given to his edit (He apparently was placed in a beach strategy scene that he was not actually present in. Continuity errors pointed it out, it's in episode 2 or 3 I believe.) But I would be totally and completely floored if Sash won this season.

grunching, just caught the last episode

lol at Brenda/Sash gang for not voting out Marty here. truly hope Marty gets to own Brenda hard in a future TC.

I have a feeling this may happen, but I really hope not. I want Brenda to win this showdown. Brenda is BRob and Marty is Russell (albeit somewhat watered down versions of both).

I like having Brenda around b/c my man-crush on the real Boston Rob was getting uncomfortable.

CBS is really getting out of hand with these mid-week promos. The one for Wednesday's episode has a pretty blatant spoiler (or it at least appears to be one) in it. I don't know if they're doing this on purpose, but it's annoying.

The last time I thought I was blatantly spoiled I was dead wrong. In any case I will try to avoid this promo.

Probst: "Fabio, what are you doing right now?"



Fabio: "Using the restroom"



Jill: "Ahhhhhhhhh"

Marty's hair is messed up in that last picture.

What? NEVER A BURDEN?!?! I must have missed the seasons where having the idol, and people knowing you have the idol, makes you a prime target to just get out because you have it!

Playing the game, is much different then watching it, and saying what you should do. You don't know that other people maybe plotting against you to vote you out. Not everyone knows they are in danger when they have the idol.

Not really if we are both discussing it. lol If you post that about being in a big alliance, people can post their thoughts on that situtation.

NEVER??? What about Na when she told Kelly that she didn't like her. Or how about Sandra when she told Russell off. Those ARE BIG SIGNALS that they are against YOU!!! I don't even see the logic in that statement.

No he didn't have to take a huge gamble to make it to merge, as there are other big gambles one could do to make it to the merge. Finding other idols, bringing in other people, there is so much more left he could do.

Marty's risk rises dramatically when he says out in the open for someone to vote for someone else.

You ONLY NEED ONE PERSON to THINK SOMEONE IS A DOUCHE, and therefore they ARE a DOUCHE!!! Are you trying to tell us all, that if someone thinks someone is a douche then they are not a douche?

The same can also be said for your very example of Na. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to think that Na is a bitch, and the same can be said for Marty. People are indifferent, and some people think he is a *******. It doesn't change that there are people that think he is a *******, and these people are playing with a Junior High mentality. The only difference is that these are adults.

This is what I am trying to figure out.

Why can't you grasp reality in what happens in these shows? Sure you may do that stuff, but there are a ton of people who go in blind. Why? Who knows, but they DO!!! I am not making excuses for them, I am just trying to educate you on what happens in these shows.

Quite a few of these people could careless about it other then thinking that they are going to havve a career in the entertainment industry because of it.

Keeping strong people around is quite a bad move, especially when you have a stacked tribe. Would you want to go against Tyrone post merge in a immunity challenge, or Dan? Same with Kelly the following week. Marty or Kelly who would you want to play against?

They have four other people that they can eliminate at anytime if need be before them so you take out your most physcially challenging people first for post merge.

People throw challenges prior to the merge in hope of this to get rid of Tyrone type castmates.

It is important though when you consider that you are competiting against these people for individual immunity. If your neck is on the line, would you rather compete with a tribe full of people like James, Tyrones, Colbys, and Boston Robs? Or would you rather compete in against people like Kelly, Dans, Sandras, and what not? That is where there logic comes into play.

Not to mention that these shows are full of people who have never seen the show before in their lifetime. Something casting looks for when selecting people so you get things from a new perspective. And after last seasons Big Brother as a huge fan of that show I can't blame them on why they do it. Total snooze fest since there were a ton of super fans on that season, and everyone stayed together, voted almost all in pacts in fear of retribution for not going with the plan besides Kathy, and to many people playing under the radar games because the know not to create distrubances, or ruffle feathers.

I am only telling you what Probst said. Plus there has only been one idol, we don't know where they would end up when they get used, where they are put. Last season Russell dug with holes all over the place for the first idol. Doesn't mean that it was easy.

Yes I read what you wrote but have you been reading what I have wrote? Because if so you would know by now that the producers feel that making the clues pictures vs words makes it MUCH MUCH MORE DIFFICULT for the contestants. When in reality it DOESN'T. Which makes it all IRRELEVANT that they are making it HARDER! And how on earth can you tell from one clue the difficult of the placing? Not to mention the producers were helping Russell during his season by giving him unfair advantages.

In seasons past there have been difficult finding spots.

Well if you have seen the show before then you know it is actually better to be on it, then off it. lol Would you rather end your game on a stupid decision with no chance of being able to play further and win? Or take a huge gamble and end up in the record books of stupid moves, and be the person at finale night who is asked by Probst why did you do it? Why did you make such a stupid move? Why didn't you lose the idol when you had the chance?

At which case you answer laughing "I just don't know Jeff... I just don't know... I thought I was doing it right... but it turned out I made the WRONG decision... I took a risk... and it didn't pay off... I wish I had used the idol..."

Followed by another contestant in front of you turning around and rubbing your leg laughing with the rest of the castmates, and studio audience.

I hear what you are saying loud and clear but that is a terribly stupid decision to do, and unnecessary risk. I don't know why you can't see it to be honest with you, because that type of move could have easily sent you packing, and there wasn't much long term planning with that type of thought. If he honestly thought that was the best move, why wouldn't you try that move THIS WEEK, and get a alliance to form. Do you think that it is going to suddenly change? Not to mention you just voted out one of your FUTURE ALLIES!!! lol

Look at the amount of people on this board who state that it was a terrible move for the younger team to do. Do I need to say more? If Brenda, Sash, and others on that team actually had intellegent gameplay none of this would have happend this week. Not to mention the boneheaded move to yell out who YOU WANT GONE!!! Now how in the world is that long term planning? As I have said before and I will say it again, had Marty been on the blue team, I surely believe the action would have been with Marty going home as they are playing that type of game.

You're saying that Marty should give up the chance of making an educated guess at who the sacrificial lamb will be so that he might be the beneficiary of random luck next week? What sort of strategy is that?

When I talk future tribals, I am speaking about these long term plans some people are saying Marty is risking going home for. Because they are on in the same. But I will ask this once again, with your logic what is the sense in not using it, and being able to stay? You give yourself a extra two weeks instead of one? But realistically if you are not going to use the idol in one of the times you know it very likely could be you, to the point of shouting out the persons name who you are threatend by to get voted off, what are the chances you are even going to use the idol at all? It could be very likely that you will get burned at a tribal council and go home without using it.

Because as I pointed out above it doesn't increase your odds greatly, because you couldn't pull off that move already. So what makes you think you are going to be able to change the tribe dramatically when you just lost a future ally? Makes no sense.

What you are doing is a Tyson move. "Could be the greatest move of all time in Survivor if I pull it off... or the worst move ever!"

Your risk outweighs any real advancement because you failed to be able to do that very thing this week.

I am not being obtuse, I am just pointing out your flaws in your theory. Like I said I can give examples of people who had a great deal of airtime who have won in the past. And those are not my only reasons why to say the very least. In fact they are bottom of the barrel points.

I provide many rational arguments, but you clearly don't want to listen to anyones opinions but yourself, and people who believe what you do as well. If you are to lazy to read what I have to write, and remember it, then I am not going to bother posting them again. You can easily go back and look if you really do care.

What is so wrong about joking about who wins? lol There are spoiler tags for a reason.

It is too FAR FROM THE END to come up with a winner when SO MUCH CAN CHANGE, and DOES IN SURVIVOR!!!

Sash has so much going against him, that I don't see how in the world he will make it to the finals. But then again this season consits mostly of idiotic gamers so anything could happen I guess.

How does it make your point valid? The only way your point would be valid is if there had been no UTR winners and there were good theoretical reasons why there couldn't be any.[/QUOTE]

lol, it's not too far from the end to pick out who wins. There's like 4 people left with realistic chances.

I think there are more then four. Wouldn't suprise me at all to see Jane make it to the finals, or atleast final three, or four. To many people haven't come out of their shells yet, and the alliance is too big to likely not break down.

Have to wait and see what, if anything the floaters do.

yes, Jane is one of the potential winners

no fricking way am I reading that great wall of china of text, without cliffs

You're not missing anything. I've put him on ignore, his posts are too tilting to bear.

I agree with this.
And this.
And I don't blame you for this, but have recently just exercised the scroll down option myself. However, I was a little resentful that I had to do it twice. Once, for the original post, and again during your response to said post. (It took you long enough on the 'ignore' option.) I actually occasionally agree with some of his points, but then am blown away with the logic used to make them, or with the tenacity that he clings to some of the points which I find more ridiculous. But, I certainly don't begrudge him his posts. I'm well aquainted with the long post myself. Have at it, man.

Are you referring to Sash or Invisible Kelly? If Inv Kelly, I'm on the same page. Yes, she is a vote in the large alliance which seems to be in control of the game at the moment. Yes, she probably will not be seen as a huge threat any time soon if ever. Yes, people probably like her and might possibly vote for her if she was one of the "vote against actual player named X" options. But I don't think I could pick her out of a line up, so I can't see how she could possibly end up winning.

Sash is a different story. I would have agreed with you prior to last week, but felt I had to change my mind on him given his increased visibility coupled with his current position in the game. Also, I think it's a stretch to claim he was completely invisible in the other epi's. He didn't name himself something ******ed like the meow meow, but people in and out of the game were giving him credit for the the 'minority alliance' as early as the first or second episode.

Also, how randomly inappropriate would Shannon asking him if he was gay seem if we had gotten a lot of face time from Sash? I'm guessing, not very. It might have still seemed inappropriate, but it certainly wouldn't have seemed out of the blue. We would more likely be nodding our heads at the possibility that he was, in fact, gay and following that up with a line from Seinfeld. I'm sure the shock value of Shannon's question at TC would have been significantly reduced.

There were bigger fish to fry in those first couple of episodes than introducing us to Sash. The MartyJimmyJimmy saga was going to be short lived, but made for decent coverage. Alligator shoes were filled with sand and sent off to sea. The back story to Shannon's blaze of glory had to be developed and brought to completion.

Maybe Marty drums up some new allies and votes Sash off next episode, but until I see that happen, I have to respect the position that Sash seems to be in right now, and it's a pretty solid position, I think.

I'm not saying Jane is incapable of winning, but age+gender is definitely working against her in a major way. In 20 seasons, only one winner has been older than 40 (Bob in Gabon, and he was next to a 47 year old woman and a crybaby everyone hated), and Sandra is the only woman older than 30 to win in almost a decade. This is a young people's game, and it's not even about the physical aspect as much as it's just hard for a 40+ year old person to build an alliance with a bunch of kids. Older women also tend to be extremely passive followers/floaters; yeah, I'm stereotyping, but I'm not wrong.

Does anyone really envision Jane being more than an afterthought in this young alliance? I guess she COULD win if she gets to the finals with hated people (the most deserving finalist hasn't won in four consecutive seasons, after all), but I certainly wouldn't be betting on her.

Damn Yve...

Left and right are randoms, yeah? Unless Fabio and NaOnka put on some weight...