I feel like it's already been made clear that people consider her a major threat. You can't really say the same about Sash, Chase, or Benry. If she's strong enough socially, though, she can control the dummies (NaOnka, Purple, Jane, Holly, etc.) and coast to the end.

I said that Marty was seen as the biggest threat among the oldies. Kelly B. is not an oldie. Therefore, the fact that they voted off Kelly B. does nothing to disprove my point that Marty is seen as a bigger threat than the other oldies. Try again.

That's right, BIG ALLIANCES can break, but why would they in this instance? Teens + Jane have a 5-2 majority over Marty and Jill. Two people would have to switch (and be aware that the other is switching) to put M+J into the majority. Who will do that? Brenda and Sash obviously won't, and neither will Jane. That means that both Kelly Purple and Jud have to switch. That is much more likely to happen if Marty has the idol; otherwise, he has to try and persuade two passive players to uproot alliances they've been part of since Day 1 in order to risk becoming 3rd and 4th in another alliance.

Marty is a huge douche? Hi Brenda! Who has Marty set off in the wrong way? Only Brenda and Jane. He seems to have mutual respect with Sash, Jill is his BFF, Jud is in awe of him, Kelly Purple says she likes him (in a secret video), Dan is a lock to vote for him if he can, Holly doesn't seem to care either way, and Alina/Benry/Chase/NaOnka don't know him yet. That's 2 out of 13. Even if we accept the inaccurate claim that Marty is a goat, he is much more dangerous than the other remaining players who could be considered goats (NaOnka, Kelly Purple, Dan), and so will not be dragged along to the end. Also, maximising your chance of getting to the finals is much more important than setting yourself up with the ideal partner(s) for when you get there. Keeping Marty in the game is suicidal.

Yes, I'm discounting the possibility of Marty finding another HII. Why? Because he is no more likely to stumble across the clue to it than the other twelve people left in the game, and it would be foolish to make plans that are partially based on that unless it's the only way you can stay in the game (which, as vyk showed, is clearly untrue).
Again, Marty not playing the idol is perfectly sound. The problem is that he didn't follow that up with a play that would allow keeping the idol to work.

You're acting as if Brenda is the one making all the decisions and Sash is following her around on a leash, which is clearly untrue. Sandra (both seasons) and Natalie didn't have much screen time initially either.

Every argument you can make in favour of Brenda applies to Sash (apart from Chase wanting to bone her), but Sash is more well-liked and is seen as less of a threat. You're right, it's not close.

I mostly agree Kos, it will be interesting to see what happens after the merge, with who takes control, and who backstabs who first for gain.

Opps I missed that part. Though I think that could likely change once the idol is gone. That tribe is currentyly playing a end game right now where they want people who will not win due to the likelyness factor. Which could make Jill a bigger target if they are able to get the idol out depending on how they feel since Marty is playing the loud ******* game that some people don't like.

As you said it 5 to 2? Who are the low men on the totem pole? Fabio is one, and he could flip. So it is then four to three. Only need one more vote, and someone does something out there that pisses someone off with little food, and water and they are gone. Ego comes in and takes over. There are many possibilities within.

Have you seen how he played over on the other side? Jane, and Brenda hates him, and has likely spilled as much venom about him as possible to the other side, and if you get Brenda on your side that's two, and it just goes on from there. As time goes on, with nothing to do people get on each others nerves much much more overtime. They have only been together for six days. If Marty makes it to the merge Brenda could control, and outright lie about him and what he does. That happens in reality shows to get people to switch. Marty is a type A personality, and so is Na, and Brenda. Something is going to have to give.


Which is what they are currently doing now! They got rid of Kelly because they were scared of her. If these people watched the last two seasons, and had not watched others these people could very much likely be thinking about taking someone like Marty to the end. Not to mention he is someone good to have if you are a player who wants to keep someone with a target on them to ease the target off of your back.

You do know Russell did this to stay in the game correct? Marty is a pretty big gamer it seems like and would know this also. Look at the amount of times Russell found it with the amount of people there!

Correct so in the view point of many people who believe what is another week, why not use it and stay another week vs being gone in two weeks?

Sandra got a good deal of time on Survivor compared to Sash, especially once Courtney got the boot. How much have we really seen of him? They maybe saving him, but he comes off boring from the editing, which maybe why there are not much clips of him. Sash has been so far unseen and can be viewed much more as a threat because he is a young male, who looks to be in shape, and have a mind to him. Natalie played the dumb southern girl.

Which is why it is much more likely he won't make it to the finals if he is smart, and well liked. Brenda would want to maximize her gains by getting rid of him post merge once they have the numbers, and replaces him with Jane in her alliance.

This thread is so edit-phobic it's kind of funny.

Indeed, as I said! Again, Fabio and Kelly Purple are the only possible defectors. Do you think that both of them are aware enough to identify that they're on the bottom of the totem pole?

Once again you say exactly what I said, act as if it supports your argument instead, and then make claims that can't be substantiated. Yes, Marty, Brenda, and NaOnka are big personalities. Why are you so sure that Marty will come out the worst from that exchange.

They were idiots to be scared of Kelly B as a jury threat! Think about it: all of them were saying that if she got to the end she would get sympathy votes. Yet presumably, none of those people complaining about her leg would give her a sympathy vote; and since everyone feels that way, who's left that would give her a sympathy vote? Holly maybe? Dan? That seems like it. You're taking their poor justifications for their actions and treating them as valid. If they haven't watched more than two seasons, they're idiots! I'm a massive fan of the show, and yet if I somehow got on the show I'd be watching all the seasons I hadn't seen and rewatching some of those I had.

Your point about keeping a target in the game is valid, but Marty is a target precisely because he's dangerous. If Brenda is in control of events as you seem to think, she should have no problem manufacturing a reason to get rid of somebody.
You do know that the producers made the idols this season a lot harder to find precisely because Russell managed to find so many of them?



Using it means that you're gone next week. Ok? Not using it means that you might be gone this week, but that you're definitely not going home next week and are much less likely to be going home in two weeks.

Courtney was booted in Episode 9, and we've just finished Episode 6. You might have a point in a month, but you don't now. Sash is clearly in one of the best positions in the game, editing so far notwithstanding (although he's already had minority alliance + gaygate, along with decent visibility this episode).


...meaning?

It feels like everyone wants to guess how the editors are trying to ruin our lives instead of just following the story they are telling. They only get like 600 minutes to tell us a story of 39 days. I happen to think they do a great job and do very little gaming.

Just got caught up on this season. Enjoying it so far, although it seems like every TC is a terrible decision about who to vote out.

LOL Marty can't catch.

too many blocks of text ITT for my liking

time to start spamming quality gifs and spots for a little variety I guess

Coach has been AWESOME on Rob's podcast. I'm surprised at how much hate he has for some of the people he played with. Lots of vitriol for Erinn, Rob, Russell, and Sandra. i can't believe how much less hatable he is irl and on HvV compared to Tocantins.

I just can't get into this season Anyone else feel the same way?

Just finished the Coach-cast. So epic. So perfect. Coach.

I have a hard time believing that Marty is seen as a threat at all. I mean, they had him and his idol dead in the water and they voted off a one legged girl who had no allies. She was meekly following the instructions of her enemies with no plans to imrpove her position. EVERYONE seemed to be in agreement that they did not want her getting to the end because of the feared 'sympathy vote'. She had no power whatsoever. Was not playing hard, mostly just sitting around waiting to get voted off. The frigging crabs in Nic are more dangerous than Kelly B, yet she was the target. So how threatened by Marty could these people be? I'm thinking not very.

I think people generally fear idols in other people's hands. Exceptions being when the alliance is close and trusting. Marty/Jill and Brenda/Nay. Most are a little leary of having someone they aren't sure they trust have their hands on an idol. And perhaps many don't want to join Jill as the secondary target when Marty always has his idol to play on himself while his buddies get the ax. Clearly that is not an issue for this particular group of players as having an idol is far less threatening than having an artificial leg. But on some seasons, having an idol while others know you have it might cause you to be voted off at the first available opportunity.

Why would this big alliance break? Well, because it's bigger than 5 for one thing. You listed Sash, Brenda, Fabio, Invisible Kelly, and Jane. But you also have to add Chase and Naonka. Where does Fabio think he stands in this alliance? I know, I know, the problem with my question is it contains the words 'does Fabio think'. But if he realizes he's on bottom of a 7 person alliance--and I think he knew he was in a shakey spot before the tribe switch, so he should--it makes a lot of sense for him to break ranks sooner rather than later. I'd ask the same of Invisible Kelly if she wasn't so invisible. The only thing I know about her is from her secret scene. She likes Marty because he's so pious and good, and it's difficult to listen to her ramble on in her sorority girl voice. Did these two save Marty this week because they refused to vote for him the second time around, forcing Sash and Brenda to oust Kelly B? Is there still hope for team Marty and Jill?

And, yes, he is kind of what your everyperson would consider a douche; he just hides it sometimes--most people will figure it out eventually. Even so, I like this line he's taking at La Flor about how much integrity he has. Invisible Kelly bought it. Fabio likes him. Natch Brenda doesn't like him challenging her position. And he treated Jane like she didn't matter for too long so there might be no going back with her.

Stuff like this is what pisses me off most about this thread. You all say ******** like this. How the **** do you know how hard she was playing? How can you make a statement like that? Because the editors haven't shown you KB being devious and shown you her thought process like they've shown Brenda and Marty.

I can't stand it. How you people can have discussions that revolve around "facts" like "The crabs in Nicaragua were playing Survivor harder than Kelly Bruno" is just beyond me.

Yea that annoys the hell out of me as well.

I certainly believe Fabio thinks it. Who knows about Kelly as they don't show much of her insight. When you are out there you know who is talking to who, and who is buddy buddy the most with who. Then comes the logic of where am I at in this? And when do I try to make a move to go beyond the bottom.

No do I do not! I don't act that it supports my argument, because it does! You even admitted that Brenda hates him, and so does Jane! Brenda is already pushing Marty as the bad guy, and does this and that. Just look at how he played over on the other tribe and that is substantial proof right there that people will possibly gain hatered of him. You don't think Jane isn't spilling her guts, and won't after the merge about all these things? I don't see nothing that substantiates your claims!

Well at what point when they act on their justifications are they not valid? lol Their justifications are there actions in how they are playing the game!

Yes but do you understand that in many cases involving Big Brother casts that many of the contestants have no prior knowledge of Big Brother prior to going into sequester where they are then given Big Brother DVD specific seasons, and told to watch them, and look at how a certain player plays so that they can become that type of a character for the show?

I guarantee you that if BB does it then many others do as well. Survivor is known to cast many unknowns off the streets who have no prior knowledge of the show, and many of them are likely to share similar traits of BB castmembers who are hand picked by the casting directors because they are unique. There have been some seasons in this show where only one, yes count them one contestant chosen from a audition.

But that tribe including Brenda are not the smartest players who are in control of the game compared to the blue team who are getting rid of real threats. First Tyrone, and then Yve over Dan. The yellow team cares more about how well liked people are then as Soncy points out people who are actually a real threat who have game changer powers. And who knows maybe the yellow team are like BB contestants who have only seen the past two seasons where the winner was the nice person vs the one who played the game the best?

It really doesn't matter how hard they are to find if someone is determined to find one they have a huge chance of finding one especially with more people looking for it. And by the way the difficulty addition was only to contain picture clues vs written. Not that much more of a difficulty level.

But how useful would that idol be if you were kicked off?!?! lol You don't get future chances, this isn't Big Brother where there is a possibility of bringing back someone half way through! You have ONE SHOT! Besides the season where they brought back people like the lady in the scout gear who was voted out first. Especially when you feel you are in danger of going home so much that you yell out to vote for Brenda which means you are changing what your original vote was going to be.

Because as other people are trying to point out with the argument of what is one additional week? Well what is a additional two more weeks? They could flush out the idol the first week, and then you could be gone the second week with only one additional week.

Well until I am disproven then doesn't my point stand? Sash as well as the rest of his tribe are making boneheaded decisions which could easily cost his position in the future. If he keeps making them, or when Brenda, or someone else like possibly Na feel he is a threat simply because he is nice, which is how the tribe voted this past week, and they believe he will have too many friends it could be his downfall, but it all comes down to how they play. Sash is going to have to do a mean move eventually if he wants to stay if they stay on this vote emotional vs strategic.

Yep I have the same exact feelings as you Soncy. They care more about how well liked someone could be at the end vs a person who is a actual threat with a bonus to boot!

Yep these people are just idiots, who don't seem to understand the game vs number odds. If this was a different season with hard gamers we would have seen Marty gone this week because they would have gone after the bigger threat. In fact as I have said before if Marty was on the blue team and this whole thing went down they would have likely gotten rid of him. But either due to stupidity or ego or not knowing how the game is played they have decided to keep the person WITH THE IDOL over a non threat.

And, yes, he is kind of what your everyperson would consider a douche; he just hides it sometimes--most people will figure it out eventually. Even so, I like this line he's taking at La Flor about how much integrity he has. Invisible Kelly bought it. Fabio likes him. Natch Brenda doesn't like him challenging her position. And he treated Jane like she didn't matter for too long so there might be no going back with her.[/QUOTE]

Correct, eventually that big alliance is going to break, it almost always happens, Fabio and the rest of the bottom are going to have to break away unless they are just going to lay down and get voted off! If they don't this is going to be a extremely boring season that they pick off most of the people one by one, with maybe a couple suprises throughout prior to near the end.

And yes if he reaches the merge, or if not sooner, certain people are not going to like what he has to say or do. Na is going to be one of them, unless she turns on her current alliance to join him because she throws a fit about something they do. To many BIG type A personalities for this type of stuff not to come out.

Normally shows will show the person strategizing to stay, and pretty much the footage they had sucked. There wasn't much, and she seems to be playing the under the radar game which got her kicked off. It is the type of footage Big Brother would use when Eric from season 8 didn't care to listen to who the viewers voted to evict, so he would just go out, give a line to show he made some type of a effort, and be done with it.

Chill out, Boc. About half the stuff I write is intended to be amusing in some way. If you don't find my comments funny, that's okay. Bash my posts or ignore them or whatever soothes your offended spirit. I'm not going away, but it's really easy to put me on ignore. However, if your beef is with the entire thread...there is an easy solution for that as well. Unsubscribe. Until now, I've never said one word about how annoying I find it that you constantly bash this thread and Survivor. Dude, if you don't enjoy the show, don't watch it. If you don't enjoy the thread, don't waste your time here. Spend your time doing things you enjoy. Life is short.

I think Kelly B would have been in an okay position had Chase not betrayed her alliance/Shannon had not self destructed/she and Alina targeted Naonka instead of Brenda that first tribal. We've probably been duped by the editing into believing that Naonka is capable of being pretty scummy in a 'whoteva, I do what I want' kind of way, and she appeared to lead what appeared to be unprovoked attacks on Kelly B, starting the whole business about KB getting sympathy votes. So, Kelly B was kind of unlucky in some ways. But...and again, this might be editing yanking our chains, but she appeared to be hunkering into the young people alliance after the tribe switch which is a pretty terrible strategy for her. (I've recently posted about how (I perceive) Fabio is somewhere near the bottom of (what appears to be) a 7 person alliance, and Kelly B (appeared to) fit somewhere below even Fabio. That Kelly B was recently voted out might suggest that she, in fact, wasn't in a very good position. I like Kelly B a lot...of course, I do have to point out that my perception of her is based on the edit we've been fed. She may be more unpleasant that Naonka (appears to be) in real life. But my feelings for her as a person aside, if she was playing really hard after the tribe switch, I feel like she would have pursued an alliance with Marty and Jill and gave them a lot of information about her old enemies. And maybe she did that, but I also feel like the last tribal counsel would have gone very differently if she had.

Yeah, we state our opinions like they are gold. Then, we argue with each other's ideas. It's a discussion forum. It's very strange if we have to post as above about how 'editing seems to indicate', and 'I believe', and so forth. We all are aware that we don't get to see 29 days of footage. I think we all are aware that when one of us makes a post we are posting our opinion. Then, we are all free to refute or ignore said opinions as we see fit.

Nucleon, you are a loon regarding your position on Sash. If you agree that this is a numbers game, you can't then ignore that he and Brenda are sitting on the top of AT LEAST a 7 person alliance. Brenda, Sash, Naonka, Chase, Jane, Invisible Kelly, and Fabio at the moment (also an argument could be made that Ben and Alina think they are now in this alliance as well). It's true that the thing could blow up, but as things sit right this minute, he and Brenda are in the best position. Might change next week, but we will cross that bridge when it comes. Also, gay man paired with skinny chick is a winning combo in Survivor Lore.

***Disclaimer: this post reflects the opinion of the author only, and in no way causes Nucleon to actually BE a loon.

I think it is to good to be true for Brenda, Sash, Na, Chase, Jane, and Kelly to stick together with Fabio who is likely the first to break out of that alliance.

It will happen in either two ways. Brenda, Sash, Na, or Chase will feel threatened about being able to win against one of them, and will break away mid way to late season. Possibly one of the stragglers will get into one of their ears. My guess is Brenda will go after Sash, or Na, and cause a split. Ben will swap too but maybe one of the first booted, as I see him possibly flipping with Alina if they can get far enough.

Brenda will bring either Na, or Chase, with Jane to her to the finals if she can. Marty if she is incredibly stupid and he somehow makes it through the Survivor maze and manages to stay alive! But I don't see him making it past early merge unless they think he is a great opponent to bring to the finals to beat, or if he can gather the troops to takeout the younger tribe alliance.

Brenda will end up favoring Chase over Sash though. I think post merge Chase will push hard to get rid of Sash eventually.

lol

The analysis here is way too serious and absolute considering many of you are trying to attribute logical thought to a group of people, half of which are too stupid to vote out someone with an unplayed idol in his pocket.

"Let me see, shall will bring the guy we really worry about (and has an idol in his pocket), back to camp? By golly YES WE WILL... Because that will give us a great opportunity to vote one of ourselves off next tribal.."

PS. FWIW, the only gut instinct I'm getting is that Brenda will be a target after the merge and will be gone 1st or 2nd post-merge.

Now I'm offended. I'll not have my analysis be labeled serious. I try to keep it 50, yo.

I was listening to Rob's podcast and wondering why I couldn't understand what Coach was saying at first. Because he is running on a treadmill. And giving updates on his progress, natch.

I agree with Coach's read on Kelly B that she was probably a stick with you kind of girl, and that people should have been trying to allign with her. But maybe Coach and I were fooled by her edit and Rob C's (faux) guess that she's really a huge jerk, but CBS didn't want to portray her as such was the correct read.

Coach on Dan: a dingleberry turned hemorrhoid that you just can't get rid of. Apparently, not a huge Dan fan.

Coach claims everyone talks about quitting at some time or another, and that CBS could fill a whole episode with nothing but various people talking about quitting and crying about the conditions.

Fabio reminds Coach of Lenny from Of Mice and Men. Not to get too serious with my analysis, but I was thinking earlier today that Fabio may well be the next target because everyone will fear he will get the sympathy vote at the end for being mentally handicapped.

Rob C quoted Sandra's line as a stand out moment for her in HvV: "I'm against you Russell." Actually, I think it was THE standout moment. I believe she won primarily because she was against Russell. And I believe Parv lost because she couldn't get Russell's stink off of her.

I'm assuming that Jane told Brenda/Sash that Marty essentially directed the two previous boots on Old Espada, which should signal to them that he's a threat.

Your first set of points are all good, and are plausible reasons why Jud/KP etc. might not want to switch. I'm arguing that the existence of the idol is the most leverage Marty has if he's in such an overwhelming minority otherwise. Also, note that Brenda/Sash are unlikely to know that Jud/KP have flipped until after it's actually happened (and been revealed at a TC at which one of B/S is likely to go home). However, I can certainly appreciate the arguments for keeping Marty over, say, Jud once the idol's gone.

I think the big alliance is less likely to break because of the change in dynamics effected by the tribe swap. On Old La Flor, there was only one TC in which they could 'test' the solidity of their alliance, and that was Shannon's boot for which even KB voted. Now, the alliance has been split down the middle and placed on different tribes. KP and Jud could well opt for the alliance which they seemed to have been in already; Marty needs an ace up his sleeve - possibly in form of the idol - to persuade them to flip. It definitely could have been their influence that saved Marty.

Anyone with a douchey streak is going to have trouble concealing it if they're on an island without hygiene etc. in a stressful situation for 39 days. However, I think they can get away with it if they adopt the proper attitude at FTC, which is one of the main differences between players like Todd and players like Russell.

Too true. Also, I haven't made my obligatory Rafe reference yet, so thanks for the opportunity!

You: Marty is a dick, everyone hates him, he's a goat!
Me: butnah, only Brenda and Jane hate him
You: But you just admitted that Brenda and Jane hate him!

If everyone hates Marty so much, why, in all the times you've made this argument so far, have you only cited Brenda and Jane? Surely it would add more weight to your argument if you could give examples of other people who hate Marty?

wat? The fact that they provide justification J for an action A does not mean that J is a good reason for doing A, or that A is the best option available to them. Galu justified voting for Russell at F11 on the grounds that they didn't think he could have an idol. That was a poor decision, based on a poor reason.
I'm aware of all of that, but if you got a casting call from CBS suggesting you go on Survivor, wouldn't you be looking for past seasons on the Internet as soon as you put down the phone? It's not logistically impossible for people to watch past seasons before they go on. The only person I can think of for whom that might be different is Earl.
Firstly, NuEspada's voting decisions have been almost as bad as La Flor's. Voting out Tyrone and then Yve, two of the strongest challenge competitors, over Dan is asking for trouble, and that ignores the fact that Benry/Alina should have teamed up with the oldies in the first place. Secondly, if they had seen the past two seasons, they would have seen that there were many 'nice people' who got voted out early, and that the fact that two of them won was to be expected given how many of them there were on each season.

I want to give you the benefit of the doubt, but I'm not sure you're thinking about what you write. Why was Russell able to find the idols in Samoa? Because the locations they were in were accessible even without clues: under bridges, under rocks, in the trunks of trees. If Russell was on this season, how would he have been able to find the idols without a clue? Willpower alone doesn't enable you to dig up the whole island without people noticing. The nature of the clues is completely irrelevant.

If Marty makes the right follow-up play, keeping the idol doesn't mean he goes home. How else can I say this?! I'm aware that most players only have one shot, I've seen the show before! If you were on Survivor, knowing that you probably wouldn't return, would you settle with going out in 10th-12 place? That's what your saying Marty should settle for by using the idol.

Marty uses the idol: He's safe this week, almost certainly goes home next week.

Marty keeps the idol: He's in danger this week (although he's actually in very little danger if he and Jill make the right play, as has been pointed out multiple times), but is safe next week and is likely to make the merge, where the whole game can change.
Me: Sash is most likely to win, we've not been seeing a large amount of his unceasingly smirking face but that was true of Sandra/Natalie
You: Sandra was actually visible after Courtney's boot
Me: That was Week 9, this is Week 6
You: Well I haven't been disproven yet!!!

That's not how arguments work. If I claim that unicorns exist, the burden is on me to prove that unicorns exist. We don't assume that unicorns exist until we find evidence to the contrary. I've given examples of winners who have been relatively UTR at this stage of the game. You can certainly argue that they're the exception, but making unfalsifiable claims isn't the way to go about it.

Everyone understands that the above post is just me being a goof, right? I'm just asking because some people have pointed out how Marty could be seen as a threat as if I was serious. I'm sure he is, just so we are clear. And to muddy it up again, he's apparently not seen as a bigger threat than someone who had orchestrated NO vote offs and who had no current allies on her tribe...save perhaps Jane. Jane probably liked her. Does anyone (think they) know if Jane was in on the fact that Kelly B was the one being sent home instead of Marty?

I'm still wondering if Fabio and Invisible Kelly both balked at sending Marty home and that's why he is still here. Invisible Kelly seemed like a nice enough girl in her secret scene. Was she okay with Kelly B being treated like a pariah...especially when Naonka was around? I'm still baffled about Kelly B being so ostracized.

Oh Soncy, you so crazy.

In fairness, your satire was probably a sincere reflection of Brenda/Sash's actual thought process :P

with 13 people left i wonder if they will merge at 12 or just start the jury at 12