Survivor: Nicaragua
and why was getting rid of coach her best shot for the long run?
She was 4th regardless b/c her social game was too strong. She was always going to have to win the FIC.
Coach was an alliance of 2 that wanted to flip post merge to put them on the bottom of the totem pole. By aligning with Russell she became 3-4 in a powerful alliance. Was this a real question?
Somewhat, Kind of, Semi, but technically (Un) Official Power Rankings:
Kos13, SavageTilt, Soncy, vyk07, and myself vote on a top 5. Pts values from 1-5 (15, 10, 7, 5, 3).
1. Sash (67)
UTR strategic power player in majority alliance with 2 other members with bigger targets on their back (Brenda + Chase) meaning that his potential deep-game threat is well disguised, good social game, taking a shot of convincing Marty to give him his idol next episode (SavageTilt)
2. Benry (38)
You can make a serious argument for Benry being #1, but he's here only because Sash has a steady alliance. Benry is quietly slimy and appears to at least sort of understand strategy beyond basic first-level thinking. (Kos13)
3. Brenda (37)
Chase is her dog and is improving matters for the group over at the other tribe. Naonka is a tight ally, and can't win. Jane is a willing pawn. Her alliance with Sash is good and bad. He's a strong member of the group, but she might not be able to beat him. (Soncy)
4. Marty (26)
Brenda wants to take 2 strong players to the end. Marty somehow is still in the game without playing an idol. Even against the numbers he will always have a chance to win this game. (Cash Mahne)
5. Chase (19)
sympathetic, physical deep-game threat in majority alliance with no enemies (vyk07)
Others Receiving Votes: Alina 5, Jill 3, Kelly 3
Kos13, SavageTilt, Soncy, vyk07, and myself vote on a top 5. Pts values from 1-5 (15, 10, 7, 5, 3).
1. Sash (67)
UTR strategic power player in majority alliance with 2 other members with bigger targets on their back (Brenda + Chase) meaning that his potential deep-game threat is well disguised, good social game, taking a shot of convincing Marty to give him his idol next episode (SavageTilt)
2. Benry (38)
You can make a serious argument for Benry being #1, but he's here only because Sash has a steady alliance. Benry is quietly slimy and appears to at least sort of understand strategy beyond basic first-level thinking. (Kos13)
3. Brenda (37)
Chase is her dog and is improving matters for the group over at the other tribe. Naonka is a tight ally, and can't win. Jane is a willing pawn. Her alliance with Sash is good and bad. He's a strong member of the group, but she might not be able to beat him. (Soncy)
4. Marty (26)
Brenda wants to take 2 strong players to the end. Marty somehow is still in the game without playing an idol. Even against the numbers he will always have a chance to win this game. (Cash Mahne)
5. Chase (19)
sympathetic, physical deep-game threat in majority alliance with no enemies (vyk07)
Others Receiving Votes: Alina 5, Jill 3, Kelly 3
Brenda is in tight with Sash. Brenda is in tight with Jane. Brenda is in tight with Naonka and her idol. Brenda is in tight with Chase. As things stand, all of these people look to be in a favorable position to make it to merge. If they merge at 10, Benry has to pick up ALL the riff raff to even make a 5 person alliance to combat the others. LOL, and I forgot Purple Kelly as usual. That makes 6 in Brenda's group.
How are we rating Benry above Brenda? He hasn't shown any more inclination to depart from the lemming path than Alina, and he will be a huge IIC threat post merge. I mean he COULD muster a new alliance post merge, but whether he will is purely speculation. What is not speculation is that he will be seen as a threat to win IICs.
Brenda is in tight with Sash. Brenda is in tight with Jane. Brenda is in tight with Naonka and her idol. Brenda is in tight with Chase. As things stand, all of these people look to be in a favorable position to make it to merge. If they merge at 10, Benry has to pick up ALL the riff raff to even make a 5 person alliance to combat the others. LOL, and I forgot Purple Kelly as usual. That makes 6 in Brenda's group.
Brenda is in tight with Sash. Brenda is in tight with Jane. Brenda is in tight with Naonka and her idol. Brenda is in tight with Chase. As things stand, all of these people look to be in a favorable position to make it to merge. If they merge at 10, Benry has to pick up ALL the riff raff to even make a 5 person alliance to combat the others. LOL, and I forgot Purple Kelly as usual. That makes 6 in Brenda's group.
no that is wrong. her social game is INCREDIBLY WEAK because she wasnt able to get to final 3 because of who she alligned with. coach wouldve been loyal to her. there are a few part of the games. getting to the finals is the most important. being liked doesnt mean anything if people will just vote you out. russel didnt care about her. if she ever had a real shot of winning shed be eliminated. this is not a strong game.
Spoiler on potential S22 cast:
Spoiler:
Allegedly, (I don't know the source, just came running here when I heard it):
"rumours are circulating that 2-time WSOP Main Event champion Johnny Chan will be featured on the upcoming season of Survivor. His participation could explain his noted absence from several live tournaments."
"rumours are circulating that 2-time WSOP Main Event champion Johnny Chan will be featured on the upcoming season of Survivor. His participation could explain his noted absence from several live tournaments."
I don't disagree that not ruffling too many feathers is a good policy. And that Jerri excelled in this area. And I agree that she could have won, had she made it to the end. However, the same people who were making all the decisions about who to vote off, and when to use an idol, were going to be the same people who decided whether or not Jerri made it to the end. It's not a good spot to be in if you've been pretty easy to get along with all along. But to each his own.
I thought Parv played the best game by far. And through the most adversity. But I understand why Sandra won, and was okay with the game she played as well. I personally would not have voted Jerri over either Sandra or Parv and I think anyone who would is taking spite voting way too far.
how credible did it seem?
chase is obv winning, no enemies is a huge +++, and he appears to have a brain
i don't think sash's plan is going to work at all either, marty isn't that ******ed but the target on his back makes it pretty unlikely he'll go super far imo, i mean how often do people who take serious early heat go on to win?
i don't think sash's plan is going to work at all either, marty isn't that ******ed but the target on his back makes it pretty unlikely he'll go super far imo, i mean how often do people who take serious early heat go on to win?
I would like to be able to confidently say that Sash's plan will not work, but the way people keep acting the complete opposite of what appears to make sense is making me seriously question my judgement. (I know, you can't tell by my bitchy posts.) {shrug}
He was shocked he didn't go home because he didn't expect it to be a tie with him and KB. He expected it to be 3 votes on Brenda, 3 on X, and 2 on Marty (the kids thinking they split it 3-3 but Jane changing her vote). Marty thought he controlled three votes, not two. I don't know why you keep bringing up Brenda's speech, as that was designed to piss Jane off and keep her loyal to the kids in case she was thinking about flipping her Marty vote to whomever Jill and Marty were also voting for.
Because that speech scared the **** ouf of Marty to the point where he tells Jane to change her vote to vote Brenda off because he no longer trusts her, and is worried himself that he maybe the next one to go home. Which is why someone would normally use the idol in this case that he has a chance of going home.
The writting is on the wall that you have a strong chance at going home, and you would choose to just sit back, and potentially be eliminated for some type of move that isn't even there to begin with.
You're analyzing this from the perspective of: everyone wants Marty off immediately. That's obviously not true. You can spin it however you want, but the kids had Marty in their crosshairs, and instead of pulling the trigger, they picked off KB. Also, the thing I think you're missing here...
I am anaylzing it from Marty's perspective that a person on your tribe who is in the biggest alliance is sending warning shots your way, and you could be in danger after being told that they are going to be voting another way. And Marty was certainly scared because he wouldn't have told Jane to vote Brenda if he wasn't worried because that even puts a bigger target on your back.
If Jill isn't immune, they split it on Jill and Marty. Only because Jill is immune was it worth the risk to not use it because the kids HAVE TO vote (even if it's just a split) on one of their own. This is not true at the next vote, when no one is immune. Marty has to take the risk that they will do exactly what they did and boot one of their own first because THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN AT THE NEXT VOTE. They might do it when it's Marty or KB, but they won't do it when Marty and Jill are BOTH eligible. Therefore, the idol is more valuable at the next vote than it is at this one. Does that make sense?
It wouldn't have been for zero gain because you actually still be in it if they didn't. Which is a pretty smart strategic move that castmembers have fallen because they never used it. And as we have seen in previous seasons like what Soncy speaks about, there are more chances, including more immunity idols to be found. It isn't the end of the world by not having a idol, and Dr. Will was able to win season 2 without winning a competition, he used his brains to do it, even when odds were against him, and almost did it for a second time in a row.
Clearly Brenda's speech was designed to get Marty to use the idol even though he wasn't the one actually going home. If Marty is as good as he claims to be, then he probably figured this out. The speech may be the very reason he didn't use the idol. It's also possible Fabio simply told him KB was going home.
In any case it's extremely difficult, by process or results, to call not playing the idol a mistake.
One thing is clear to me. Brenda is the sharpest on this season with Marty and Jill close behind. I also like Jane as a wild card. The new La Fluer is awesome
Nucleon: Everything you've written on this page is ******ed. Firstly, this is not even close to the James situation (other in than in levels of overall stupidity by a group of young people). James has two idols with three TCs left in which to play them, and so if he was going to be voted out it HAD to be that night. James had no idea he was being targetted, whereas Marty was fully aware that his name was coming up and that the kids were going to split the vote.
Marty's error was in not making the play that gave him the best possible chance of avoiding a tie + revote i.e. vyk's suggestion of splitting their two votes between the two most likely sacrificial lambs. Secondly, it's absurd to say that Marty not having the idol would make him less of a target, since there's a 100% likelihood that he's gone at the next TC. Thirdly, it's hypocritical of you to use the editing as part of a desperate argument and then make claims that are completely dependent on the editing. How do you know that Marty didn't have some super secret pact with Kelly S and Jud? 45 minutes out of 72 hours yo!
How is it hyprocritical? It is the absolute facts! You as well as I have no clue on what goes on minus what we see. The editors show you what they want you to see and that is that. Ever followed Big Brother online, as well as watch the TV show and see how their editing works? They make one person the villian, and the other person the Saint even if that is not how it is perceived in real life. During editing they may take one peice from a few episodes ago and splice it into the current episode to make you think something else, and contestants of these tv shows talk about this all the time! There is only 45 minutes in a show, and they are creating a story full of drama, and take the best things, or the things that fit the character they want! We have no clue what really goes on unless the contestants speak out about it. A super secret pact is something worth noting and putting on air!
Power rankings:
1. Sash: He's at the head of the majority alliance on La Flor, and despite his alliance's collective lolbadness this episode he seems more intelligent than most players left in the game. With a merge imminent, he looks to be one of the strongest physical competitors. In addition, he is aligned with one of the biggest threats in the game - Brenda - and she's always being targetted instead of him.
1. Sash: He's at the head of the majority alliance on La Flor, and despite his alliance's collective lolbadness this episode he seems more intelligent than most players left in the game. With a merge imminent, he looks to be one of the strongest physical competitors. In addition, he is aligned with one of the biggest threats in the game - Brenda - and she's always being targetted instead of him.
I would pick people on the younger tribe on the blue team have a smarter idea on how to play the game by getting rid of threat and keeping Dan who can be beat much easier in single competitions down the road.
AND, if you are still in the game, you still have the chance to make a move. You can find another idol. You have more information with which to try to make new alliances. You appear significantly less threatening.
Also, I always think people in Fabio's position have the idea that flushing the idol is a good thing even though alligning with the idol could be next best. Ultimately, Fabio wants the idol. If the idol is put back into play, he has a shot to get it. Is he thinking critically about this...not likely. I think he is mostly listening to Sash say they have a plan to flush the idol and thinking, "Yeah, {drool} flush the idol. Good idea." Still, once it's gone, he may look at Marty thinking he seems less scarey now.
Also, if Russell thinks he can't sway Jerri or someone else, what is the point in taking a risk to himself in order to attempt to save Parv? He, Parv, and Danielle aren't going to vote anyone out by themselves anyway. So either, Russell had some idea he could make a move if Tyson was stupid enough to vote himself out, OR, he was simply content to fall on his sword in order to save Parv. Also, in Russell's case, I believe he had a reasonable expectation that Tyson might do something looney. After all, Russell had planted a seed. And Russell always expects his seeds to produce fruit.
In Marty's case, you have to be extremely results oriented to say that it was reasonable for him to not use the idol with the way things went down at TC. However, I guess since he was so clueless about what was going on, maybe he thought his big plan of 'let's vote for Brenda together, Jane' was going to save him. I just don't see how he doesn't think he is a target and needs to take measures to ensure his safety RIGHT NOW, and worry about the fall out later. Instead, wooooooooooooooooo whooooooooo! I went all in with 72 and won the hand!!! Although, I think 72 probably has more EV than Marty could expect to have had in not using the idol.
Also, I always think people in Fabio's position have the idea that flushing the idol is a good thing even though alligning with the idol could be next best. Ultimately, Fabio wants the idol. If the idol is put back into play, he has a shot to get it. Is he thinking critically about this...not likely. I think he is mostly listening to Sash say they have a plan to flush the idol and thinking, "Yeah, {drool} flush the idol. Good idea." Still, once it's gone, he may look at Marty thinking he seems less scarey now.
Also, if Russell thinks he can't sway Jerri or someone else, what is the point in taking a risk to himself in order to attempt to save Parv? He, Parv, and Danielle aren't going to vote anyone out by themselves anyway. So either, Russell had some idea he could make a move if Tyson was stupid enough to vote himself out, OR, he was simply content to fall on his sword in order to save Parv. Also, in Russell's case, I believe he had a reasonable expectation that Tyson might do something looney. After all, Russell had planted a seed. And Russell always expects his seeds to produce fruit.
In Marty's case, you have to be extremely results oriented to say that it was reasonable for him to not use the idol with the way things went down at TC. However, I guess since he was so clueless about what was going on, maybe he thought his big plan of 'let's vote for Brenda together, Jane' was going to save him. I just don't see how he doesn't think he is a target and needs to take measures to ensure his safety RIGHT NOW, and worry about the fall out later. Instead, wooooooooooooooooo whooooooooo! I went all in with 72 and won the hand!!! Although, I think 72 probably has more EV than Marty could expect to have had in not using the idol.
Have you been paying attention to how ******ed the rest of the cast is? brenda is clearly the highest-level thinker. Yes, it appears she made her first error on wednesday, but I'm gonna reserve final judgment on this play til next episode.
Well after watching last nights show I would say the blue team has the better thinkers since they got out a actual threat. Not getting rid of Marty even when he has a idol and decides to not play it could be a terrible move for the future. Anyone who does that isn't to high on my book. It is like two seasons ago when Russell got the other team to vote off the crazy dude right after the merge.
Please don't compliment my points in the same breath that you laud Fabio as a bigger threat in this game than Sash. I'm just kidding...sort of.
By 'just kidding' I mean, I intend you no malice.
By 'just kidding' I mean, I intend you no malice.
Well after watching last nights show I would say the blue team has the better thinkers since they got out a actual threat. Not getting rid of Marty even when he has a idol and decides to not play it could be a terrible move for the future. Anyone who does that isn't to high on my book. It is like two seasons ago when Russell got the other team to vote off the crazy dude right after the merge.
Like I said, wait til next week. if sash and brenda get Marty to give up his idol they will look like geniuses.
I think that is all a editing ploy to get people to watch next week, but crazier things have happened on Survivor this season that it wouldn't suprise me! lol
edit: this was sarcasm, please no one take me up on this.
It would be great if he did it prior to the challenge ending!
Originally Posted by Nucleon
It wouldn't have been for zero gain because you actually still be in it if they didn't. Which is a pretty smart strategic move that castmembers have fallen because they never used it. And as we have seen in previous seasons like what Soncy speaks about, there are more chances, including more immunity idols to be found. It isn't the end of the world by not having a idol, and Dr. Will was able to win season 2 without winning a competition, he used his brains to do it, even when odds were against him, and almost did it for a second time in a row.
Originally Posted by Nucleon
Well then don't you see where this is as close to the James situtation? He had two idols with three tribals left and doesn't use it, and gets voted off. Marty has actual warning shots, has a idol, doesn't play it, and goes home. You yourself even state that he was warned he could potentially be going home!
Marty, by contrast, has 1 HII with AT LEAST 5 TCs left, most likely 6-7. He has to be thinking about the long-term implications of using his idol. This isn't anywhere close to the James situation.
How is it hyprocritical? It is the absolute facts! You as well as I have no clue on what goes on minus what we see. The editors show you what they want you to see and that is that. Ever followed Big Brother online, as well as watch the TV show and see how their editing works? They make one person the villian, and the other person the Saint even if that is not how it is perceived in real life. During editing they may take one peice from a few episodes ago and splice it into the current episode to make you think something else, and contestants of these tv shows talk about this all the time! There is only 45 minutes in a show, and they are creating a story full of drama, and take the best things, or the things that fit the character they want! We have no clue what really goes on unless the contestants speak out about it. A super secret pact is something worth noting and putting on air!
I disagree with your power rankings. Sash among the rest in his tribe, as well as most left in this game are terrible. You leave a guy with a idol vs someone who is not as big of a threat. If you are going to go after someone why not Fabio? He is atleast a threat! And I wouldn't put stock into how good people are at challenges this early in the game because physical competitors are known to not play as tough until further on out when it counts because they don't want to be seen as a threat.
Alliances aren't always accurately reflected on the show though; Stephen Fishbach's posts on Sucks document this in great detail, I can get the link for you if you want. If you're using the editing as a tool in your argument, you have to concede that there may be things not shown in the editing that informed Marty's decision not to play his idol.
wow i hate this thread so much. There's just so much opinion that gets bandied about as fact. So little understanding of the editing process. So little appreciation for the great things about this season.
Anyway, this past episode was a snoozer. As double boot episodes generally are. Hearing 14 different people's reasoning for who they're going to vote for and why is a recipe for a boring episode. Disappointing that the older folks are getting whittled away so quickly, there were a lot of entertaining characters on that tribe. At this point, only Jane and Holly appear to have reasonable shots of winning based on editing/logic. I'm pulling heavily for Holly, as I think she'd be the most entertaining winner since Heidik, and maybe the most entertaining winner ever.
As for the youngins, I dunno. It's nice to have an episode go by where NaOnka isn't edited into a huge villainous bitch. Brenda is obviously great for the show. Nice to look at, willing to make bold moves and not just stay in the shadows. But there's something that has me cheering against her. I have lots of Alina love, but she's getting a bland, narrator's edit Chase? zzzzzzzzzzz. Sash? Not buying his winning chances after he was ignored by the editors for 4 consecutive episodes. Kelly S? Poor girl must have turned down Probst's advances or something to deserve this kind of treatment from the editors.
I just hope Holly or Fabio wins. Either of them would make this one of my favorite seasons. But my favos never win, so we're probably headed for a Jane win after she makes no enemies and gets to the end by not being a physical threat.
Anyway, this past episode was a snoozer. As double boot episodes generally are. Hearing 14 different people's reasoning for who they're going to vote for and why is a recipe for a boring episode. Disappointing that the older folks are getting whittled away so quickly, there were a lot of entertaining characters on that tribe. At this point, only Jane and Holly appear to have reasonable shots of winning based on editing/logic. I'm pulling heavily for Holly, as I think she'd be the most entertaining winner since Heidik, and maybe the most entertaining winner ever.
As for the youngins, I dunno. It's nice to have an episode go by where NaOnka isn't edited into a huge villainous bitch. Brenda is obviously great for the show. Nice to look at, willing to make bold moves and not just stay in the shadows. But there's something that has me cheering against her. I have lots of Alina love, but she's getting a bland, narrator's edit Chase? zzzzzzzzzzz. Sash? Not buying his winning chances after he was ignored by the editors for 4 consecutive episodes. Kelly S? Poor girl must have turned down Probst's advances or something to deserve this kind of treatment from the editors.
I just hope Holly or Fabio wins. Either of them would make this one of my favorite seasons. But my favos never win, so we're probably headed for a Jane win after she makes no enemies and gets to the end by not being a physical threat.
I am going to go ahead and guess you voted Bush, twice!
http://survivorsucks.com/topic/58598?page=1. There are a lot of crap posts there by Sucksters, but Stephen himself gives valuable insight about Tocantins. He also posted in the Tocantins edgic thread a few times apparently, but I cba to go looking for it.
See, you may be right if it was someone like either Kelly or Jud who had the idol. The problem is that Marty is viewed as the biggest threat among the oldies, regardless of whether the idol is in play or not. The oldies are now down 8-5 overall, and so the youngies are definitely going into the merge with a majority. No-one is going to switch to Marty's side on La Flor if he doesn't have the leverage the idol gives him, so if he uses the idol he has to hope La Flor win the next 3 ICs. Since that means Espada loses the next 3 ICs, the youngie majority on Espada can vote out Dan (who happens to be Marty's pawn, oops) as well as anyone most likely to defect to the remaining oldies. Marty therefore goes into the merge - if he makes it there at all - as the biggest target in an overwhelmingly outnumbered minority. How is he supposed to win the game from there?
People are not going to switch? BIG ALLIANCES can break when the people on the lower end figure out that they have no chance of winning, and choose to do their own thing, or just bring in someone for a vote to get off of bigger threats.
You also discount the possibility of Marty going, and finding another hidden idol. Idols are not everything, and not every person who has had a idol wins the game. It actually leads to a bigger target, especially if people know you have one.
James had 2 HIIs with 3 TCs left. It was logically impossible for the right play at F7 to be not playing an idol: if they vote out Peih-Gee/Erik instead at F7, if (Peih-Gee/Erik)/James wins immunity at F6 then Amanda/Courtney/Todd are in a lot of trouble. If James goes into F6 with both idols, he has a free pass to F4. Therefore the only opportunity his alliance had to vote him out at F7 onwards was F7.
Marty, by contrast, has 1 HII with AT LEAST 5 TCs left, most likely 6-7. He has to be thinking about the long-term implications of using his idol. This isn't anywhere close to the James situation.
Marty, by contrast, has 1 HII with AT LEAST 5 TCs left, most likely 6-7. He has to be thinking about the long-term implications of using his idol. This isn't anywhere close to the James situation.
Those this is a stupid season, with a stupid cast that includes a lady who throws her tribe members shoes in the water, and then tells him, and then becomes closer to him. And people PRACTICALLY GIVING UP IDOLS! But Survivor has casts a ton of players, or atleast use to up to a couple years ago with the majority being found by casting, and not by going with people who have sent in tapes. Which is why there are so many people from California on this show. Johnny Fairplay was found by luck.
Alliances aren't always accurately reflected on the show though; Stephen Fishbach's posts on Sucks document this in great detail, I can get the link for you if you want. If you're using the editing as a tool in your argument, you have to concede that there may be things not shown in the editing that informed Marty's decision not to play his idol.
This isn't a ranking of who the best players are, it's a ranking of who is most likely to win the game. That person is Sash.
its pretty obvious the most likely to win is brenda and its not close
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