Quote:
Originally Posted by RML604
But Marty's goal there shouldn't be about getting 4 votes to Brenda, it should be about figuring out who they're splitting votes on and voting for that person. They're obviously not splitting votes on Brenda, which was why it was such a bad play. At least pick somebody who they might reasonably be splitting votes on, which is pretty much either Jane or KB.
Agreed, and that's why I'm saying it wasn't *smart* to vote Brenda. From his POV, though, it really would just be a complete guess, as he and Jill would have no idea KB was an outsider. They can't really vote for Jane either, as she's a more likely ally (from their POV) than anyone else on the tribe.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vyk07
9)Resulting in = 3 original votes for Marty + 3 votes for the goat in the group of 6 (suspected to be KellyB or Jane) + 1 vote on suspected goat #1 by Marty (lets say on Kelly B) + 1 vote on suspected goat #2 by Jill (Jane)
10)This results in = 3 Marty + 4 KellyB + 1 Jane or = 3 Marty + 1 KellyB + 4 Jane, effectively saving the crucial idol for another week[/B]
They shouldn't split their votes. Marty and Jill should vote together for the kid (i.e. not Jane) they think is the most likely target. It's pretty simple, they just panicked at TC and switched to Brenda, which only works if both Jane AND Fabio also vote for her. They screwed up their end of it, but they should vote as a block, regardless of who it's for.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nucleon
What is better? To use the idol, or to go home and end any chance you have at potentially winning?
You might want to look up "expected value." If he burns the idol, he's toast unless they sweep immunities until the merge (or there's another swap, but that's unlikely). With so many kids left, they might even throw the next immunity so they could boot him. So yeah, he survives one vote, but he's in a terrible position. Your advice is to take the risk-less, lower-EV move, which is why you'd be going home at the next vote if you were Marty.
Also, I find it funny that you said not using the idol ends any chance he has of winning. He didn't use it and survived, so clearly, not using the idol does not mean certain death.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zurvan
Because if Russel's play worked, it left him with a majority alliance, and if it failed, he was only going home one TC early.
What? No, it didn't. He had no idea Jerri would flip and Coach would non-vote the next week.