Terry really screwed up post-merge on Exile Island. He has the hidden immunity idol at this point, but his tribe is the minority. I think his mindset is that he has to win individual immunity from here on out to make it to the Final 2. Why not confide in a few members of his tribe (plus his buddy Bruce) that he has the idol, have them "flip" to the majority tribe and act as if they want to take him out, then manipulate the votes so they take out Shane or Aras?

wut? He was down 6-4 at the merge and I believe he made many attempts to flip two members of Casaya over to his 4. I think he approached Danielle and Bruce in particular, showed them the idol, and promised to actually give it to them if they flipped. Danielle and Bruce wouldn't do it for some reason so Terry effectively allowed himself a chance for an immunity run + a mulligan between the merge and F3.

What really screwed him was the fact that he lost the F4 immunity challenge to Mr. Whambulance, and was forced to keep his idol for safety instead of being able to give it to Danielle and effectively earn her trust and loyalty to bring him with her to the F2 if she won that immunity, since Aras was clearly siding with Cirie. I believe Danielle stated that exact thing at one point, "If you had given me the idol at F4 I would have had no qualms about bringing you to the F2" or some variation of that.

Terry's real mistake imo (probably made some before this as well, but none spring to mind atm) was not just voting for Danielle at F4.

Terry forces the tie by voting for Cirie at F4, as he did irl:

- If Cirie wins the fire challenge, F3 is Terry, Cirie, Aras, and we're in the position described below. This is actually the best outcome for Terry, but it relies on Cirie winning the fire challenge, and is therefore too risky.

- If Danielle wins the fire challenge, F3 is Terry, Danielle, Aras. Both Terry and Aras would beat Danielle in the finals, and Danielle may or may not take Terry. Therefore the FIC becomes Terry vs. Aras, with Danielle in the middle somewhere.

Terry votes out Danielle at F4:

- F3 is Terry, Aras, Cirie. FIC becomes Terry + Aras vs. Cirie.

If either of them takes Cirie:
Terry vs. Cirie
Austin: Terry
Sally: Terry
Bruce: ?
Courtney: Terry
Shane: Terry
Danielle: Cirie
Aras: ?

Aras vs. Cirie:
Austin: ?
Sally: ?
Bruce: ?
Courtney: ?
Shane: Aras? (he said at Sucks he would've voted Aras, but I doubt it)
Danielle: Aras
Terry: Aras?

Here, the FIC becomes Terry vs. Aras, with Cirie's chances at winning the challenge completely negligible. And this is assuming the worst-case scenario for Terry: that Aras would beat Cirie. In actual fact, I can imagine Cirie, a married mother who went from being a couch potato scared of leaves to being the mastermind of the season, who is articulate, and who was popular with the jury members, easily walking away with the million. If this is the case, and Aras knows it, he is forced to take Terry to F2, and so the FIC becomes Terry + Aras vs. Cirie, which is obv. a blowout in favour of the men.

Terry vs. Aras
Austin: Terry
Sally: Terry
Bruce: Terry
Courtney: Aras?
Shane: Terry
Danielle: Aras
Cirie: Aras

Therefore, if Terry votes out Danielle at F4, he automatically increases his chances of making F2. He loses Danielle's vote in the process, but I think that's an acceptable tradeoff.