enough bickering guys, lets get back to the task at hand



Survivor Season 21: Nicaragua

Judson FTW!

you mean fabio?

hes got a surfer vibe in his cbs intro video

He does, but that's not a bad thing. His Dalton Ross interview made me think he knows what it takes to win. He described himself as Ozzy+Todd with a good understanding of why these players were successful.

ffvb ftw, although i'm srsly considering skipping this thread all together this season

I have to pick the yahoo guy to win. seems like the best and i would guess 12 people have no idea what they are doing on the show, the other 7 seem like they would do well but be a step or two behind yahoo guy...

my pick for S22, is Team Rob

This is a good post. There are infinite ways to advance and win this game. Some are spectacular and some are boring as hell. At the end of s20, whether it was spoilt or not, any mention of Sandra was ruled a spoiler by those that either didn't like her or her game.

Probst said it best, the outcome of the game is predicated on how this game is played, not how some feel it should be played.

So far there hasn't been a frame of the new season shown, yet I'd wager many have already decided who deserves to win.

I really only read the thread while the show is airing and maybe a few hours afterwards for the west coast impressions. Most of the stuff after that until the next week just makes my head hurt.

shannon/jillian are my favourites. They are both physically strong and there is a chance that they wont go out before the merge

ill try to cross reference many awesome photoshops from other sites in this thread during the season to make it easier on your eyes lol

too many blocks of texts to sift through between episodes

Going off picture alone I am going to say the first Kelly (paler one) will be the best player, but she won't be a great player. I don't see any great players in those pictures. Hope I'm wrong!

I'm finally watching the bio videos. This has to be the worst looking group of women they've EVER had on the show (though Blonde Kelly is stunning), and everyone wants to be the next Ozzy. Ugh...I hate them all.

Dan seems interesting, though he'll probably get booted early because he's old. Jill seems like a "sleeper" of sorts who could sneak through an old people Pagonging and randomly end up in the F5. Tyrone will be strong, and Marty is great; I doubt either one will win because they'll probably be the #1 and #2 targets of the young people at the merge, but they seem solid (especially Marty, who seems extremely sharp and knowledgeable about the game). Sash strikes me as one of those guys who will completely implode like Erik. Shannon sort of reminds me of Jaison as a "fantastic on-paper player" who has all the tools to be outstanding, but he seems much more street smart and game-savvy. He's your winner. Everyone else seems standard, boring, or brain-dead.

So yeah, just based on the bios, I'm rooting for Marty, Shannon, and Dan (and I guess Jimmy Johnson, but he won't last) right now.

I agree with a lot of this and I don't agree with you a lot Kos. I just won't root for Shannon. Marty says he is a lot like Russell and Boston Rob. S23 could be Boston Rob vs Marty vs Russell.

fu CBS and the geographical restrictions on your vids

From what I have been able to see though, I'm rooting for Marty as well and hoping Brenda and NaOnka go home first.

Rob C. appears to be updating his FB and twitter. We'll know for sure soon when the next podcast comes up.

you are also not from America? Last season they put some videos with geographic restrictions but when season started they didnt put them on 95% videos.

what will we know for sure?

I think it's pretty safe to say Cesternino isn't on S22...not that it was likely before, but he's obviously back at home now.

He was rumored to be in the S22 cast.

Shane seems possible still. His Twitter is still being updated, but it looks like he stopped linking his blog.

Ive heard rumors that it would be 18 new randos and Rob/Russell. If it was pure returns, Cesternino must not be one it cause Probst doesn't like him or whatever is going on there, or because the guy just had a honeymoon.

IDK why shane would come back for such a season. Cesternino was blindsided by Boston Rob, so he would make sense. Along with Monica, Shambo, Coach and whoever else was rumored.

Or I guess nicole is updating his Twitter. I hope she cuts sound bytes from his previous pod casts and still does podcasts while he is away. Would be an epic level.

Survivor Sucks had a thread last season where this guy rehosted all the videos so anyone could watch. Might want to check there.

OT, but since we still have a few weeks until showtime, I thought I'd throw out a few questions that occurred to me:

- Did Yau-Man frame the truck deal with Dreamz optimally in Fiji? It seems like not making the gift of the car contingent on Dreamz handing over the necklace is placing far too much trust in a player who has already been shown up as unpredictable and willing to ignore promises. Why does Yau-Man not just say 'If we're both in the final 4 and you win immunity, I'll trade you the car for immunity' and added a clause that they not vote for each other in the final 4, for fear of losing each other's jury votes. As it is, backstabbing Yau gets Dreamz another $40,000 and a 60k car.

- When the Rob/Tyson/etc. alliance in HvV tries to split up the Russell/Parv/Danielle alliance, does it make sense to split the votes between Russell and Danielle? Danielle is obviously the least likely target, and so even if Russell does manage to convince Tyson to switch his vote or whatever, a member of Russell's alliance is eliminated and Rob now holds an overwhelming numbers advantage over Russell. Obviously Russell and Parvati are much greater strategic threats, but this way Rob ensures that he's safe even if Jerri/Coach (or Sandra/Courtney conceivably) flip.

also, lolwat @ Shambo rumours

My guess is that for Yau to frame his offer in the way you suggest, he'd be breaking some kind of rule. I can't imagine you can offer to give someone cash for the immunity necklace or for a jury vote, so I also can't imagine you can offer a car for either of those things. I'd assume that the truck must be awarded to someone after that challenge, and the truck would then be out of play.

As for the Russell/Danielle/Parv thing, your paragraph was too confusing for me to read. Either way though, the Tyson elimination in HvV is one of the strangest occurrences on Survivor, and the editors tried to make it look like it was all Russell's doing, which made it a jumbled mess that I prefer to pretend never happened.

And Shambo was a big character in Samoa, surely you can't be surprised they'd consider bringing her back. Personally, I'd rather they stop doing these stupid returning player gimmick seasons...But if they are gonna do returning player seasons, I'd rather they bring back actual characters instead of people like Monica Padilla.

That explanation of the truck deal makes sense, given that Yau was generally a very strong player.

What I was trying to convey with the second paragraph:

- Rob suspects that Russell has an idol and judges that Russell is the biggest strategic threat to his alliance.

- The Rob/Tyson/Sandra/Courtney/Jerri/Coach alliance has the numbers to flush out the idol by splitting the vote 3-3 against any two of Russell/Parv/Danielle.

- If Russell suspects this is Rob's strategy, his only possible response is to try and convince one of the above six to make the vote (to use what actually happened as an example) 4 Parv 2 Russell and then give the idol to Parv, so that the Russell/Parv/Danielle voting bloc can pick off a villain of their choosing.

- Russell is intelligent enough to know that Rob would aim for Parvati rather than him, and Rob himself knows that Russell is smart enough to figure this out (or, if he doesn't know, he should at least assume this).

- Therefore, if Russell is going to be able to alter the vote in this way, it has to be by convincing somebody planning to vote for him to vote for Parv instead, so that he can give her the idol.

- Given that this is the only way Rob's plan can fail, he should split the vote 3 Parv/Russell 3 Danielle. Thus, even if Russell does trick somebody into voting for Parv, the vote becomes 3 *Villain from Rob's alliance* 3 Danielle 2 Russell 1 Parv (or 3 *Villain* 3 Russell 2 Danielle 1 Parv). Either way, the idol becomes wasted on Parv, the vote is tied between Villain and Russ/Danielle, and Russ/Danielle is eliminated on the revote.

- As a result Rob has a 6-member alliance against the remaining duo, and either the Villains lose the next few challenges and Rob has the numbers to eliminate Russ/Parv at the next opportunity even if two members of his alliance join Russ and Parv, or the Villains win the upcoming challenges and Rob saunters into the merge with a strong alliance.


I agree that Shambo would be better than a nonentity like Monica, but I think this illustrates the stupidity of returning characters who have some sort of connection with Rob/Russell: either you return people from HvV for yet another season or you end up having to bring back uninteresting people from Samoa to make up the numbers. If they are going to do Rob/Russell, it would deffo make more sense to have 18 randoms. I have to disagree about ASSs though, FvF and HvV were very good compared to what came before them IMO.