Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
The offer is somewhere in the middle between the top and bottom values regardless of where on the board they fall (it can be off by one in either direction). It just works out that often it is between the amounts on either side. What I'm not sure about is I thought they said the Banker doesn't know the value that the contestant picks. Is that true?
Your response made me realize I worded it poorly. I should have said, I can't recall an offer lower than the top remaining value on the left side, due to how lopsided right side values are compared to left side values.
I.e., let's say we start with 14 values. Let's say the player knocks out 8 cases in the first round and the remaining 6 values are $.01, $1, $250, $500, $100k, $500k. The offer is likely going to be between $500 and $100k. Your stay equity here is 67%. Even if it was $.01, $1, $250, $500, $750, and $100k, I think the banker offer will be between $750 and $100k for stay equity of 83%.
Let's say instead the 6 values remaining are $.01, $500, $100k, $250k, $500k, and $1 million, the offer is likely going to be between $100k and $250k. Your stay equity here is 50%. If the banker lowballs and goes between $500 and $100k, the stay equity is 33%. Maybe that could happen if it was something like $.01, $500, $75k, $100k, $250k, and $500k, where the banker offers between $500 and $75k.
To go further, let's say there are 3 values remaining. $500, $75k, and $100k. The offer is going to be between $500 and $75k. Stay equity of 33%.
Let's say instead the 3 values remaining are $250, $500, and $100k. The offer is going to be between $500 and $100k. Stay equity of 67%.
If I recall, the best stay equity offer I've seen was 75%.
Obviously there is some nuance, but generally, I think the playing player should always be rooting to knock out right side values. The banker's job is to get them to take the lowest offer possible, based on the remaining values on the board. I don't think the banker has any role in the players optimizing staying or being eliminated.
Whether the banker knows the case value, I don't believe he does, as that would give him an even more significant edge. But I could be wrong.
At the end of the day, it's all still completely random for what values are removed from the board, but I feel like we've seen some suboptimal decisions regarding stay and elimination equity.
Last edited by tarheels2222; 04-29-2024 at 02:18 PM.