zomg 1 week, is it worth reading the rest of this thread?

doubtful

After careful deliberation, I have settled on my pick for this season's winner...and I must say, I feel pretty damn good about this one:

offering 15:1 against Andrea winning this season...

Andrea isn't my winner pick but 15:1 seems like solid value. I think her equity is top 3 or 4 for sure.

What odds would you lay against Malcolm? Dawn? I'll save the entire thread the trouble of quoting me with infinity to 1 odds against Cochran.

Betting on things that have already happened might be a little risky.

Yeah I'm not looking for action, I'm just curious as to what odds those two would go for if Andrea is getting 15 to 1 against.

Check post above mine, I don't think it's any secret around here what I think of [unnamed poster]'s critical and analytical thinking skills as it pertains to the game of Survivor. I'm willing to back the opposite of almost anything [unnamed poster] thinks will happen (and at a ludicrous price).

I won't turn this into a 4 page thesis but I think Andrea's true price falls around ~9.5:1, Malcolm I'd put at ~11:1, and Dawn ~6 or 7:1. I wouldn't actually bet against Dawn at that price though because she's one of my favorites to win. Haven't yet reviewed the cast interviews and bios at all, but while Cochran is in a prime position to potentially go deep, Dawn is also in a good spot to go deep and can actually win the jury votes at the end.

Still fully on #Team BrendAndreAllie tho

What do you thinks odds are of a favorite winning vs a fan?

The favourites always have to be massive... well, favourites in a FvF setup, and I think it's almost irrelevant who they are. I don't see that being different here despite some of the faves' reputation for poor gameplay.

I think Andrea gets far to much credit as a survivor player. When I think back to Redemption Island, I don't remember Andrea doing much at all that showed she had a grasp of the game. She seemed to get painted as some sort of savvy player due to being slightly less enamored with Boston Rob then the other girls on her tribe(which wouldn't be difficult), she ultimately was booted from the game rather feebly.

None of the interviews I've seen from her since then have changed my opinion of her. I accept that she has a number of friends in the game already, which certainly helps, but the same can be said for Dawn and Cochran.

My winner pick for the season is Malcolm for the simple reason that he is far and away the best player out their of the ones we know. Unfortunately, I fear the second best player out their, Brenda is going to have a tragically short stay.

I agree with KOS, Andrea is my winner's pick

God I hope not.

Im pretty sure there are no favourites appearing on this show

:P

be careful betting on this show...final 3 are very well known on the major survivor spoiler sites and they seem to have an idea of who favorite is to win. I'm not going to spoil anything or post anymore, but be careful you know who you're betting with is all I'm saying.

Don't see how Brenda is the 2nd best player out there, unless you're judging her game based on how she looks in a bathing suit. Blatant over-player imo.

Just out of curiosity, are there specific examples you're considering as proof of that?

Can't say I recall the specifics anymore...think its the only season I haven't bothered watching a second time. She just left a very strong impression on me in that regard during the season. S'pose I could be off-base, but there didn't seem to be a lot of subtlety there.

I feel like it's unfair to say she overplays if there aren't any examples of that. She was in a good position, and then the game just went bonkers (and that's by far the weirdest season of gameplay since Gabon). She might not be subtle, but neither are Parvati, Boston Rob, etc. I do think she's screwed with this cast, though. If she manages to go deep, I think you have to consider her a really strong player, as the deck is stacked heavily against her.

Going by previous seasons I think a favorite will win and the strong males will be early merge boots. So my winners candidates are Andrea, Brenda, Cochran, Corinne, Dawn and Francesca. I think all of them have winner potential but I'm going to take the dark horse and back Francesca for the win.

We playing Survivor-Survivor again?

Consensus on Survivor-Survivor being in a separate thread?

lol, people need to stop viewing this thread as some sort of hallowed ground where nothing but in-depth, insightful, strategic analysis of the game (el oh el) goes down and anything outside that causes mass chaos and confusion.

Why would we put it in another thread?

I think one of the reasons Brenda got booted was because she tried to target Sash who was one of her closest allies [and a good ally for her to go to end with given the perception of him (which, perhaps she wasn't aware of? maybe Sash's rep only went bad after Jane trashed him?).] Also, after things were going badly for Brenda, it seemed like she refused to scramble to try to save herself. Again, maybe that's not what happened, but it appeared that way.

Chase held a lot of power, and I feel like that power should have been more up for grabs for Brenda because he was very malleable in general and he liked Brenda. Fabio also a stick to be picked up and used. Yet, with those two in the game, and Sash, her former closest ally, she got bounced. I feel like surely there was a misplay in there somewhere.

I liked her mind for the game and I always give points for trying, but her execution seemed poor.