Quote:
Originally Posted by cstone
He's bad socially in situations where he's forced to play the game with Ozzy, Elyse, Keith, and Whitney. This time he's friends with five of his nine tribemates prior to the game starting while three others (Corinne, Shep, Brenda) have all mentioned how much they like him and want to work with him in various interviews.
Cochran's position on day 1 is easily one of the cushiest spots to start a season I've ever seen, which, at least for me, is the main reason to be so high on him this time around. His Ivy League intelligence, experience playing before, ability to recognize his previous mistakes, and superfan status are all icing on the Ometepe-level-rigged-in-his-favor-starting-tribe cake.
The only way his spot could be cushier is if Edna had replaced Brenda in the cast. Cochran even has two first-boot shields (Shep and Brandon) in case he single-handedly screws up an early immunity challenge. Colin is right as usual. This one of the the greatest starting tribe draws of all-tiiiime.
Reichenbach is the other favorite in the catbird seat. His challenge prowess should keep him safe until the merge. Once there he should have a decent mix of big-game targets (Malcolm, [insert the most physically gifted fan]) left in the game to act as shields. I would place Reichenbach as a heavy favorite in a F4 IC against the wine & cheese alliance and even a slight favorite against, say, Brenda, Malcolm, and Corrine.
At the opposite end of the spectrum Shep has everything going against him. Not only is he the sole finalist in the entire cast but he is also the oldest contestant. Francesca and Andrea are out to get him. It will be an accomplishment if he avoids being the first or second boot from his tribe.