Because this is the first time there have been returners, right?

I never said it was.

I'm assuming (again - cant remember ****) that B-Rob won FF on RI. if that's the case and considering Ozzie's landslide win, then I obviously erred by not including Malcolm in my equity calcs and you guys have made a convincing case.

I now think its like this:

Cochran 35%
Malcolm 28%
Dawn 27%
Erik 5%
Andrea 4%
Field 1%

I still think Erik has an outside shot if he all of a sudden beasts the game and the editors spin a big redemption story. But that better start tomorrow night or its not gonna happen.

Worst 20 minutes on Survivor ever. I legit vomited.

Am I missing something with Erik? I haven't seen his other season but on this season he has done nothing. I understand no one thinks he will win it but I would think Andrea would have better shot.

He was a simpleton who was known for making one of the biggest blunders (arguably THE biggest) in Survivor history. He isn't nearly as likable as other Survivor mimbos, like Fabio, or even inexplicably Carter who seemed to be VERY well liked by the others last season.

They most likely brought him back as a chance for him to redeem himself for his huge mistake, and possibly, for the producers to redeem themselves by showing that it was not a mistake to cast him in the first place and that there is more to him than the one-dimensional tool he appears to be. Maybe fall into an Amber-like win. Unfortunately, he hasn't really given us much reason to change our minds.

in addition to his big blunder (which many other Fav's had in their prior seasons), i also think he was cast because FvF #2 nearly necessitated bringing back a fan for Probst's "he was a fan, now he's a favorite" line. it makes perfect sense a fan was brought back. unfortunately there just were not a ton of options; about the only other one who might've been on the radar was natalie. not sure if she was asked or not but rumor has it she's quite busy with other life pursuits anyway. i'm not sure erik was dynamic enough in his first season that he would've been asked back if it was just a regular season and not FvF #2.

If Russell was tall, had hair and did not smell, would he have won one or both of his seasons?

ARGUEEE

Erik haters itt., imo he had one of the most compelling storylines coming into the season and should have been the easy choice if they specifically wanted a fan to comeback for the storyline fan becomes a favorite. He was the prototypical fan on that season, getting star struck in the presence of Ozzy and wanting to be just like him climbing trees among other things. His enthusiasm and sheer enjoyment for the game and what it brought was inspiring as a fan and made him easily rootable. Which was all met with a crashing end of him giving up his idol in order to redeem himself, making him perfect for a season of redemption.
Tbf Erik all season has been proven by his confessionals to be a bearer of the truth, and come off more insightful.

Based on this season it seems everyone out there says he never talks strategy. He's just kinda there.

Yeah, I'm not going to say he talks strategy though I think he is an interesting character based off of his arch and it would have been nice had they given his perspective throughout. Do you think he seems to be getting this season Skupin edit? He is the swing vote every round, except people don't seem to hate him as much or we aren't at least seeing it via the editors.

I disagree with the sentiment here about Erik's likability. I'm a big fan of him as a person, in that I've found him to be really authentic and open with his wonder/awe. He expresses the feelings I'd feel like I'd need to surpress, which allows me to better live vicariously through him than the vast majority of players. I think that quality also made him highly relatable, which might be why unlike most makers of really dumb plays, I empathized with him and find myself generally rooting for him. Far fonder of him than I was of Fabio's vacuous dufus.

I agree with Gary.

While both Andrea and Erik are very long shots at FF, I think their tiny bit of equity is because of different factors.

For Erik, he is a good challenge competitor, and could go on a tear to the F3 and combined with others doing something dumb or offensive could allow him to squeak into a close FF win - but again that's a very long shot.

Andrea will need to do something to garner sympathy combined with others ruining their image somehow, her current profile as the scheming young hottie will not win FF.

Erik was the obv option to bring as a favorite this season if they wanted to pick 1 of the original fans. Unfortunately, he just hasn't been a huge part of the game this time around.

Listening to D&C, which has been tremendous so far. I don't think you can split the vote 1-1-1 between Andrea/Cochran/Dawn. Doing so leaves you vulnerable to the core of SRU basically just standing up at tribal council and exclaiming, "Hey, why don't we just vote Sherri out?" Yes, Malcolm could then give his idol to Sherri, but even in that scenario, SRU is in better shape than they would be if the Amigos just piled all three of their votes on one person.

The breakdown of the vote is fascinating, and there are several different lines that Malcolm could've taken that would have worked out well for him. In the end, though, his biggest mistake was really a simple one: he voted out the wrong person. Had he played everything the same as he did but merely voted out the correct target (Andrea/Cochran), we wouldn't be analyzing and scrutinizing his move so much. As you guys discussed, he had so many good options, yet he just wasted them all by booting Phillip. That's the real flaw.

To clarify, I think you guys came up with almost the exact right plan at the end. However, I think there is one small change you should make: instead of Malcolm voting for Eddie as a way to burn his vote, you announce that the three of you are voting for Andrea and Cochran, but you don't tell the group which player is getting two votes and which is only getting one. You then put the two votes on the player you'd prefer to go home. This slightly increases the chance that your preferred boot will indeed go home, yet you do so without directly impacting which way SRU will fracture.

It depends if you think the possibility of forcing rocks is worth it. If not, I think going for the tie is right anyway: you can direct your votes onto whichever of Andrea/Cochran you want gone on the revote, and if you announce your intentions beforehand you still run the risk of people mass-voting on Sherri or w/e.

I don't personally see the problem with voting out Phillip.

- Phillip is the only player in the game they could say with certainty would never flip over to their side.

- Erik gave a confessional during the episode saying he was finally allowed to talk to three amigos after Phillip had been booted, which is a pretty big deal for the amigos. You can't get people to switch alliances if they're not allowed to talk to you.

What hurt Malcolm was that Phillip was willing to fall on his sword for the sake of his spy organization, something Malcolm couldn't possibly of predicted. Had Malcolm announced Andrea things could well have worked out more favourably for the amigos. Given the amount of time Malcolm had to think about this, his plan wasn't a bad one by any means.

This would be ideal, because then Malcolm and Eddie can hold onto their HIIs for next time.

Although I do agree that they didn't play it optimally, because instead of fracturing the SRUs, the plea that Malcolm made was actually, bizarrely, an attempt to unite everyone against Phillip, who sucks the fun out of everything. Pretty terribly played, actually.

Great podcast D&C.

Your analysis on Malcolm's overall rank got me thinking.

How do you think Malcolm would have done being brought back right now (as a returning player who is a known commodity) with the same set of first-timers that B-Rob had in Redemption Island? I think he could do very well as I can see him teaming up pretty well with most of that tribe with the possible exception of Fillup! He would definitely make the merge as that tribe would beast most of the tribal immunity challenges. Even if he ran into post-merge trouble, he would probably have really good equity to get back in through RI.

you can't be serious eddie

IPOUHFBIBFIPBSOPFONDZcn Eddie is CONFIRMED WOAT.

So you're EXTREMELY vulnerable, you have a decent shot at winning immunity, and you decide to immediately jump for a plate of DOUGHNUTS???? AND NOT EVEN FOR YOUR OWN PLATE, BUT TO SHARE???????????????? This guy is dumber than a bag of bricks

w/e

wasn't going to matter unless Reynold won

you cant be serious erik...