In a F3 situation, if there's not a clearly defined 3(like say, The 3 Amigos) then you are virtually never a guaranteed 5th. In fact, being "fifth wheel" in an alliance without a group of 3 gives you an excellent chance at making it to the end

Re: Cochran and his Monty Hall Problem comment, I'm pretty sure he knew it wasn't the same thing and was just having fun/being a **** disturber. That was my take at least.

nah i'm pretty sure he thought he was right.

Cochrane getting the monty hall problem wrong is some pretty extreme nittery.

Even for this thread.

If he was serious, then you think he was trying to legitimately help Reynold make the right "choice" or was it a level? Seems much more likely to me that he was just effing around with Reynold and getting in a sound bite.

nah he was definitely serious and goofed it up. **** happens tho

It's a gambling forum and he got a famous gambling problem wrong. Hardly surprising it's discussed.

his ego and need to attempt to show how smart he was the driving force. it was a conscious effort to try to help reynold make the right "choice".

Great commentary in here on the last two eps, agree with most of it. Great TC last ep, great regular ep up until TC this ep.

Food auction had so many face palms, almost everyone played it poorly. Given what happened the previous ep, they all should have been max bidding any immunity clue or advantage.

Lol at people complaining that the immunity challenge advantage was too much - it's almost always that way - that's the whole point. That's why everyone should be max bidding it asap. After all these seasons, the faves still haven't figured that out. Lol everyone else that Cochran, the only thinking fave, was able to steal it for $300-ish.

Malcolm should have told Reynolds and Eddie to max bid it, since that type of thinking is below their pay grades. Then with the challenge II and HII, you still search for a 2nd HII and try to lead SRU believe they might have 3 IIs again. Even if they think you're bluffing, they have to prepare for it, which means that there's much more scrambling, and then you have many more options, and it's much easier to try to flip people.

Wrto digging, it's beyond obvious that Malcolm was trying to dig more, they just didn't show it. The above info solidifies it, that Malc had already tried almost everything he could, and just went with the last ditch play of tricking SRU into thinking he had it, forcing them to split, regardless of if he's bluffing or not.

The only other thing he could have done, which he may or may not have, is tell Reynolds and Eddie exactly what he knows and try to get all 3 of them digging and looking together even more. Perhaps at night, with no SRU around, or even just during the day, racing against the couple SRU that might try to dig also.

Editors are doing a good job showing us just about the right amount for some TC uncertainty. Unfortunately that leaves us somewhat in the dark as to SRU's inner alliances, and guessing mainly based on edits and minor hints.

At least Brenda and Erik are finally getting facetime, showing that they are being strategic, and playing decent floater/swing vote games trying to get to final 5. However, there are 3 of them vying to be that F5 swing vote, Brenda, Erik, and Sherri, so perhaps they should actually band together, although it doesn't seem like they have the personal relationships to do that.

Phillip getting eliminated hurts Andrea, Dawn, and Coch, who would have tried to F5 then F3 together with Phillip. Now, if they're smart, 3 of the remaining 4 SRU other than Coch/Dawn can make a F3 pact to get there easily. The edit makes it seem unlikely though, and that Coch & Dawn will just wafflecrush and bring along a relative goat.

Yes, Malcolm made several mistakes, but it wasn't exposing a minority alliance too early, and it wasn't flipping when he did. He had the numbers with Corrine, but she blew it. He obviously tried to make other inner SRU alliances previously, and they failed. Some probably due to pre-existing relationships between others, and some due to him being viewed as too much of a threat/unknown.

After Corrine blew things up, he had to scramble. His big mistakes then were in targeting Dawn, instead of trying harder with Sherri and maybe Brenda or Erik. And in not trying harder to flip others at the previous TC when they had 3 idols. He should have made the pitch for final 5 then.

Tell everybody that they're gonna keep winning immunity challenges and finding HIIs, and that SRU will be in trouble every week. But the first 2 of you to flip can create a guaranteed F5 (way better than F7), and that anything can happen at 5, you have a good shot at going to FTC that way. And that if you don't flip, someone else will, and you'll be in the minority alliance now. And that even if no one flips, then each of you have a 1 in 7 chance of going home. Coch didn't even want to draw rocks in his earlier season when it was 1 out of 9 or 11 or something, so surely you can draw a Coch or Erik or Sherri self preservationist out of it. And then you don't give Phillip the chance to fall on his sword, even if it was unlikely.

Seems like if Sherri could have flipped with someone else, she would have. But that she approached Erik, and he didn't want to (which is probably correct for him), so she didn't. But if someone else had gone along at the previous TC, she probably would have as well.

Also, Soncy is thread MVP not only for secret scene recaps and general commentary, but also in that everytime there's a debate/argument ITT with 2 different sides, she's almost always on the right side. Props.

Many other notables as well, of course. This is a great thread.

Re: Cochran & Monty Hall problem, I rewatched the scene, and it really looks like it could go either way. Could be serious and wrong, or could be f***ing with Reynolds.

I lean towards the latter, because Cochran is clearly smirking at him, and Reynolds even says "I don't trust you Cochran." Coch probably thought that the initial tray was decent, and there was a better chance of screwing Reynolds if he switched, which is true.

The problem with the cochran thing is that it wasnt even close to the monty hall problem. Like if only one of these below were missing, i could forgive the msitake, it just seems liek he was trying to be a know it all.

First:

reynold didnt choose from 3 starting.

Second:

probst didnt expose any of the three.

Third

We are not sure at the quality behind the three plates(two must be of quality above the third)

These are three of the main components of the monty hall problem. Even if all three of those are done, its techincally not still a monty hall problem unless reynold is aware before everything that probst is always going to expose a ****ty plate.

To me it seems like hes smirking because he gets to demonstrate his intelligence, which he does poorly cause he is wrong.

Good luck

I thought it was something like, " I think you're supposed to switch." Really inflammatory for people who are more well versed on the dilemma apparently.

Like...the sense I got was he blurted it being the Monty Hall thing because it put him in the mind of the Monty Hall thing before he had any chance to realize it wasn't actually the same thing. I'm glad I wasn't there because I might have done the same, and now the thread would be pissed at me for trying to be a know it all when I actually would be a "wait, I've heard of this...no, maybe I'm confused...I can't remember the details."

"It's a Monty hall problem. You're always supposed to switch."

I read the smirk as either deliberately getting it wrong to mess with reynold or thinking he was right and smirking because he knows it will mess with Reynold.

I think this episode clearly illustrated the edit is unclear this season. :P

Big +1 to the post above about tribe dynamics (sorry, think it was Soncy). Very surprising ep for Brenda and Eric.

When discussing this in person I frequently accidentally say "Monty Hall Python."

That is all I have to contribute.

Ponderosa

Malcolm: "I'm proud of the way I played...not because I played with honesty or integrity...but because I played hard."

He lost 22 lbs. Phillip greets him telling him if he had made it to the final he would have voted for him. No hard feelings about calling him the de-fun sponge. Phillip living up to his life view that holding onto bitterness is no way to live. Good for Phillip.

This. He wanted airtime and to mess with Reynolds. There's no name for this choice.

So what are you supposed to do, make up something ******ed like, "Clearly it's a Mayshaque Onslaught. You should therefore choose the 3rd tray 80% of the time, and the 2nd tray 20% of the time." Then you just sound like you're FOS.

So you think of the thing it most closely resembles, like the Monty Hall problem, hope that Reynolds has vaguely heard of it, switches, and picks something awful. Now whether this was Cochran's actual thought process or not, I don't know, it could have gone either way.

Regardless, it was a good move, since it did get him airtime, reinforces to 99% of the viewing audience that he's really smart, and leaves the remaining 1% talking about him for days.

SS1

Close to a horrible decision (erik): Erik trying to tell us he would have eaten the spaghetti. He seems sincere, but I'm still not buying it. Who would do that?

i feel connected to my family (dawn): Dawn talking about not getting her letters and NOT crying.

my spirits are way up (eddie): Feeling a lot better...about as good as day two. Chest and arms looking very nice...but he's Eddie. Andrea loses points for being attracted to him.

totally rejuvenated me (erik): Auction made him 100% better. Peanut butter and letter from girlfriend makes all the difference. Auction was full of win. Eric looks so much better with wet hair instead of that fluffy fro.

full spectrum of benefits (cochran): Didn't care about getting the advantage in the challenge, but it looked like Reynold was going to get it and Cochran had a lot of money left, so he used it to get the advantage. Did it to keep the advantage out of the hands of Reynold, Eddie, Malcolm. Then, for a mere 20 dollars got the emotional and mental advantage he needed with his letter from home. Still fighting the emotion off even as he recounts getting the letter.

paranoid, sketchy and nervous (andrea): Sherri is...in the mix. I mean, she hates the boys. We are trying to make her feel more comfortable with us. I mean...I could go to the end with Sherri...That would be great. If I could maneuver her around till she's in the F3. She's somebody that you would want to be up against in the end. So far, she's doing what she's told. But she's very sketchy and paranoid...which is standard. Dawn is worried she's on the chopping block...worried that I'm flipping...she has all these crazy emotions. Erik is pretty paranoid usually, Cochran is kind of scatter brained sometimes...SHERRI is freaking out usually. Me...I was usually emotional always...except for tonight apparently. So it's a lot of trying to calm everybody down.

the next challenge is mine (eddie): Cochran bought the challenge. It was hard. yada yada. I keep getting bad breaks. I think next one is mine.

the walking dead (malcolm): No coconuts, no rice, no one with any energy to fish. Everyone trying to conserve what little energy they have. Wetting your pants becomes a real option when you're laying in the shelter because you don't want to get up. Then, Cochran and Dawn come strutting in with 500 dollars for everybody. Hopes he has the will power to hang onto his money to buy the advantage in the game. Worried he might see some ice cream and shoot his wad.

SS2

determined not to be first out (sherri): Didn't want to be first out. Happy that Brenda and Erik dropped before she did. Doesn't seem to realize that it doesn't matter who is first loser in these challenges. Cochran won. Very happy for him. So proud of him. It was a hard challenge even with the advantage. You still had to hold it.

andrea is more cutthroat (reynold): "Malcolm and I have colluded and we're like we absolutely need to strike the jugular again and knock out Cochran or Andrea." Good luck with that, Reynold. "I like Cochran more than Andrea. I think I have a better rapport with Cochran. ...We broed down enough that I feel more comfortable going deeper into the game with him. Andrea is cutthroat and shifty."

I want malcolm gone (Cochran): I want Malcolm gone. Part of it has to do with the game. He's a beast. He's strategic. He finds idols and so forth. But, there's a personal element to it. There's a lot of jealousy on my part, I think. I think he is kind of the super fan with a lot more going for him. I'm a super fan, but that's where I begin and end." Blathers on about how awesome Malcolm is for a bit (don't mistake me using the word blather with disagreement--Malcolm IS awesome. Cocrhan has every reason to be jealous.) Likes the idea of the pipsqueak taking down the adonis. Has mythologized him in his mind. Made him into a beast that he wants to slay. Would like his head on a pike. "Sick thing is, Malcolm is a nice guy...I enjoy hanging out with him."

3 amigos disrupted camp (sherri): I'm a little jealous of Sherri's breasts. Are those real? Idols popping up all over the place at last TC. "I was on the fence about Phillip leaving. Phillip didn't bother me that much. I hadn't had to live with him for that long...to have the issues everyone else around camp was having with him. But if it was time for him to go, it was time for him to go. {shrug} Cut your loses. ...3 amigos disrupted camp...I'm keeping my options open. I'm willing to talk to them. I'm telling the 6 that I'm with them. I'm solid. But I'm also telling the three that I'm willing to talk."

SS3

i was nervous (brenda): Letter from home lifted her spirits. Andrea securing rice and beans for the tribe lifted her spirits.

Never seen Cochran cry (dawn): I was with cochran last time when we got our letters, and last time he showed no emotion. He read his letters and put them away last time. I've spent over 60 days in the game with Cochran and I've never seen him cry. He mentioned the game had been so stressful and he'd been bottling it all up and trying to be the funny guy. Runs down the list of intense happenings from the season. Glad for Cochran to have the security to have a good cry. (Dawn completely fine with crying in front of others.)

I'm proud of cochran (dawn): Did her best in the challenge. It was hard. Proud of Cochran even with the advantage...the challenge was difficult. You couldn't write a better story. Pleased about Cochran's story arc this time around.

i feel terrible (brenda): I feel like throwing up right now. I can't hardly even talk about it. Yesterday, I had a tiny bit of pig brain...and a ton of peanut butter {covers her mouth}. See, I can't even talk about it. Didn't win anything in the auction, so gorged on the peanut butter as her reward. Now suffering for it. Contemplating 'pressing the eject button' in order to get ready for the upcoming challenge.

SS Malcolm: Malcolm walks up and Andrea and Brenda are digging around a tree. He starts digging too. Uses the old wrappings to bluff an idol find. Andrea is trying to molest him and he keeps smacking her hands away. Andrea is worried he found it. Brenda says it could be the old note and Andrea agrees. Brenda says she thinks he just wants them to think he found it so that they stop looking. Andrea thinks he might have it, but could be bluffing. They need to play it like he has it and make sure they get rid of it/and him.

malcolm the day after: Survivor is highs and lows. One minute on the top of the world, next minute, sitting on the beach trying to figure out what the hell happened to you. Keep getting knocked down and picking yourself back up. It's a once in a lifetime deal, that I got to do twice. Once tribal, I got to whip out every immunity idol possible to vote out Phillip Shepherd "from Season 22 Redemption Island"...I wouldn't say fulfilling, but one of the happiest moments of my life was seeing him lumbering off. And then, a couple days later I'm getting voted out because I paid $480 for a idol clue that I can't find. Best of times and worst of times out here. Overall the experience was positive. Highest moment was voting out Phillip in such an extraordinary fashion. Love the game. Still not burnt out. Would come back again in a heartbeat. The competitor in him wants to do it again. Would do it tomorrow if he could. Post merge went to hell for him. Wasn't going to sit back and take orders from Phillip. I had all these grand plans to take control of the game and flip everything up. Post merge, Corrine, my ally goes. The next week I still try to force the move and now I'm out of the closet as the betrayer or the dissenter in the ranks. At that point all the cards were on the table, and I had to play desperately. Maybe should have been more patient? Waited for a better spot? Once everyone saw him for his true colors, he was toast. (He thinks he learned some humility from playing Survivor.) I thought I was going to come out here and mow over everybody and win this game. (That's what Cochran could sense about you, Malcolm, and why he wanted to tell you 'No' with his vote even though he couldn't help but like you anyway.) He thought finishing 4th was a fluke and was sure he'd win this time. Starving is just mental toughness. The hard part is dealing with other people's heads. All the social aspects is what is difficult. Having to sit there and deal with someone for over a month that you would never interact with if you had a choice in your everyday life. Makes you rip your hair out sometimes. ..."I would still play it hard, still play to win. Not like some of the livestock out there playing follow the leader until they get slaughtered."

I love Survivor. I love this thread. Thanks to everyone who says nice things about me from time to time. Thanks also to Swag. I appreciate you all.

Youtube link for those interested:



A rather interesting and pivotal scene really. I can't fathom how this didn't make the actual episode.

as always Soncy