Quote:
Originally Posted by fraleyight
See, you just proved my point. When discussing his settlement you have to point out nuance. Thats fine, I do to. That is why I don't go around acting like he wouldn't have received more under normal circumstances. He probably would have. The problem is, you're committing special pleading because you are not doing the same when talking about his lawsuit. There is no way he would have received 36 million or anything close to it. That is what the conversation was about. Sorry you didn't read it before responding and that you are incapable of admitting your mistake.
Oh my bad, he didn't rape any kids this case. SO who cares if he raped an underage girl after this? It doesn't matter unless its this case right? lol..
Fraley: There is a significant difference between "settlement value" and "trial value" of a case.
Yes, the insurance company is not going to settle for anything approaching the trial value - otherwise, there is no point to settlement. With what information was available to me, based on my experience in this field, I put the settlement value on this case at around 15 mm. I posted my analysis earlier in the thread.
Even the 15 mm is not an accurate portrayal of the settling party's exposure at trial. In cases such as this, even 5mm is "life-changing money" for the plaintiff. So, given the inherent risks of trial, it is usually easy to low-ball a settlement.
As you can see, the numbers discussed were absent the murder charges. That means the real leverage of going forward to trial in the civil matter still existed.
Once charges were brought against Avery, he lost all leverage for settlement AND he had no real prospect of seeing it out through trial given he needed to focus on defending himself in the criminal matter.
Accordingly, using 400k to mean anything related to the real value of the case is absurd.
If you want to round down and be conservative, you are still talking about a 10 mm case.