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Making a Murderer Making a Murderer

02-11-2016 , 08:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonbison
It's been a while since I posted a helpful thread here in micro, and after a good long day at the 3/6 tables, I decided I'd write up a little something on the notes I take during and after play.

Right now I 4-table 3/6, and I end up seeing the same players, often good, day in and day out. At 3/6, you run into the same people more often than you do at 2/4 (or 1/2 or .5/1). The game remains the same, but as you move up, it becomes more and more important to find tables with unskilled players and adjust to the play of skilled players. To help me with this, there are 3 basic things I use:

1. PokerTracker stat profiles.
Some players here don't use pokertracker, or use it mainly to track their own play and results over time. Beyond the simple accounting and storage of hands for myself, I mainly use it to keep track of my opponents. PT makes this easier by allowing you to export stats (through the advanced export feature) and to assign icons to track player profiles. In the newest beta patch, which I recommend everyone download, you can set up different stat ranges for each icon, and have PT automatically update each player's profile to make sure they're in the right range.

MS Sunshine had a very popular post (which someone can link to) that detailed his stat standards for passive, very passive, tight, v. tight, aggro and so on. At the moment, PT provides 12 icons. I use one of these to mark 2+2ers, and 11 to sort everybody else.

Everybody gets a preflop designation and a postflop designation. If there were more icons, I'd break it down more precisely, but I've found this is pretty helpful so far. The stats I use are VP$IP (basically, pre-flop tightness), PFR (preflop aggression) and Total Aggression (not counting preflop, so it gives us a nice summary of postflop aggression).

Loose-Passives
LP-P - fish icon - Loose preflop (VP > 30). Passive preflop (PFR < 5). Passive postflop (TOT-A < 1.5).
LP-A - elephant icon - Loose preflop (VP > 30). Passive preflop (PFR < 5). Aggressive postflop (TOT-A > 1.5).
sLP-P - phone icon - slightly Loose preflop (30 > VP > 20). Passive preflop (PFR < 5). Passive postflop (TOT-A < 1.5).
sLP-A - ? icon - slightly Loose preflop (30 > VP > 20). Passive preflop (PFR < 5). Aggressive postflop (TOT-A > 1.5).

Loose-Aggressives
LA-P - dice icon - Loose preflop (VP > 30). Aggro preflop (PFR > 5). Passive postflop (TOT-A < 1.5).
LA-A - taz icon - Loose preflop (VP > 30). Aggro preflop (PFR < 5). Aggressive postflop (TOT-A > 1.5).
sLA-P - frown icon - slightly Loose preflop (30 > VP > 20). Aggro preflop (PFR > 5). Passive postflop (TOT-A < 1.5).
sLA-A - smile icon - slightly Loose preflop (30 > VP > 20). Aggro preflop (PFR > 5). Aggressive postflop (TOT-A > 1.5).

Tight-Passives
TP-P - rock icon - Tight preflop (VP < 20). Passive preflop (PFR < 5). Passive postflop (TOT-A < 1.5).
TP-A - mouse icon - Tight preflop (VP < 30). Passive preflop (PFR < 5). Aggressive postflop (TOT-A > 1.5).

Tight-Aggressives
TA-P - triangle icon - Tight preflop (VP < 20). Aggro preflop (PFR > 5). Passive postflop (TOT-A < 1).
TA-N - eagle icon - Tight preflop (VP < 20). Aggro preflop (PFR < 5). Neutral postflop (1 < TOT-A < 2).
TA-A - moneybag icon - Tight preflop (VP < 20). Aggro preflop (PFR < 5). Aggro postflop (TOT-A > 2). This is the group I am in and the group you want to be in.

I automatically assign anyone with 30 hands to these categories, and advance export notes on everyone with > 20 hands after each day's session. In the end, everyone I've played 3 orbits with has the # of hands, the icon, the 2 preflop stats and the street by street postflop aggression stats exported.

For those wondering, here are the breakdowns by group count from all my hands this year (min. 30 hands):

LP-P - 1604
LP-A - 267
sLP-P - 578
sLP-A - 231

LA-P - 948
LA-A - 538
sLA-P - 307
sLA-A - 391

TP-P - 417
TP-A - 320

TA-P - 92
TA-N - 168
TA-A - 342

2. The PT game time window.
All that exported stuff is well and good, but it's static, and you'll often want to keep running tabs on players that are new (or get a substantial number of hands) during a given session. For this, I set PT to request HHs every 5 minutes, import hand histories the moment they arrive, and keep an external game time window open at all times.

That way, I can switch the game time window to the current session quickly and make preflop decisions a lot easier. UTG raises, (I see he's not a rock so I confidently 3-bet w/TT) then see what his postflop aggression looks like to have a vague hint as to whether he'd push at me with overcards. It's not precise, but as a multi-tabler, it's really helpful.

3. Shorthand notes.
For the moment, party and it's affiliates are restricting the character count of player notes to something like 84 characters, which is not a lot. With this in mind, I'm going to tell you to ignore preflop notes. Honestly, unless he does something really interesting like not raise from blinds with AK or QQ, you're better off using your notes for postflop action where the decisions are more important. What notes you should take is up to you, but I do something like the following:

"Player made a flop bet into the preflop raiser in a multiway pot with bottom pair" becomes "F b 2 pf-r mw w/bp"

"Calls down with any part of the board" becomes "cd w/apob"

"checkraised flopped trips on turn" becomes "cr F trp T" with the possible addendum "w/o pf-r".

That way when the flop comes I can open up everyone's notes real quick and see:

"b 2 LPpf-r w/bp on prdF" - "Bet into late position preflop raiser with bottom pair on a paired flop" (note, bp meaning not trips)

or

"no b F OESD mw" - "Did not bet a flopped openended straight draw multiway."

or

"blf cr scr T flsh w/nil HU pf-r" - "bluff check-raised a scary turn flush card with nothing heads up vs. the pre-flop raiser (and probable aggressor in hand)"

-------------------------------

That's all I have to say. That's my system, feel free to use it or change it or ignore it. I just thought that the prospect of note-taking on all the people you see may seem daunting to a lot of people but it boils down to this:

Let pokertracker handle some automatic sorting and use your limited time and space to note the unusual things that your opponents do.
but it leaves deer blood undisturbed.
Making a Murderer Quote
02-11-2016 , 08:29 PM
DNA found in Quarry, Someone sent this to KZ.

http://imgur.com/qvX2YLH

Also about the luminol testing tbh it wasin't about that imo it was ALL about timing, investigating procedures & the fact that SA appeal has asked for the warrents to be looked at as being illegal.(clerk of court filed for more time on this on 2-9-16)
She has IMO evidence of a rather large investigation into the trailer with Camera imagery (in 2 episode) where you could see the Grain of the wood on the panels of trailer.
(find new evidence) & when she receive's the bones & fragments found along with & those items are tested for burn patterns/dept & substances i'm sure more evidence will come to light that TH body was not burned in SA pit.

Plan A. tunnel vision. PlanB. Other suspects.(No Family IMO) Plan C. Pressure the Planters. Ofc this is not enough unless she has actual 100% proof that SA is innocent, as she ain't gonna find anything in the blood as #innocent's are convinced the Swabs sent to the F.B I were from the grand am.

Last edited by smacc25; 02-11-2016 at 08:37 PM.
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02-11-2016 , 08:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oski
Just to save you some time, the only basis for getting a new trial is discovery of "new evidence."

That can come by a bona fide discovery; or by using a new (or more accurate) test on prior evidence.

Whether new discovery of jury misconduct or improper influence counts as "new evidence" is something I do not know.

What Zellner is doing and why is something I doubt anyone not working with her on the case is really going to know. But, I am confident she is not doing this to create a circus - she has drawn a line in the sand publicly and if she fails, her professional reputation takes a significant hit. She knows that, so there must be something behind her bravado.

I disagree, do you think stevens defense lawyers from his trial have taken a hit on their reputation because they lost? The general publics opinion is that this man is innocent, at least the people that are most vocal about this situation think that. No matter the outcome Zellner will be viewed as a hero "fighting the good fight" if you will. So I think that her taking this case will do nothing but positively influence the general opinion of her while at the same time making her famous.

And, yes I know new evidence is required to overturn a conviction. That is my point, she is using the "where is the DNA angle" that is not new evidence.
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02-11-2016 , 08:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oski
but it leaves deer blood undisturbed.
the blood was cleaned up with spot cleaning. Why would there be no deer blood if they just cleaned in spots?
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02-11-2016 , 08:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraleyight
the blood was cleaned up with spot cleaning. Why would there be no deer blood if they just cleaned in spots?
Stop using the facts of the case to refute oski's MaM-based arguments.


Here's how Zellner is looking on Google Trends:



Guess which point in that graph she took the case at.

p.s. fraley, I had to block your avatar before it gave me a seizure.
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02-11-2016 , 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraleyight
the blood was cleaned up with spot cleaning. Why would there be no deer blood if they just cleaned in spots?
Is this a joke? You are still arguing that they cleaned the crimes scene and removed all DNA from BD and TH?
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02-11-2016 , 08:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraleyight
I disagree, do you think stevens defense lawyers from his trial have taken a hit on their reputation because they lost? The general publics opinion is that this man is innocent, at least the people that are most vocal about this situation think that. No matter the outcome Zellner will be viewed as a hero "fighting the good fight" if you will. So I think that her taking this case will do nothing but positively influence the general opinion of her while at the same time making her famous.

And, yes I know new evidence is required to overturn a conviction. That is my point, she is using the "where is the DNA angle" that is not new evidence.
Zellner's already famous.

Her fame comes from overturning convictions.

Making the bold statement she will get SA a new trial is very risky If she just going for a publicity stunt - especially to her reputation in professional circles.

And my point is you don't know what angle Zellner Is taking, so you are wasting your time speculating over the meaning of her actions.

Also Zellner's and Strang/Buting ' s positions are not comparable.
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02-11-2016 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoorSkillz
Stop using the facts of the case to refute oski's MaM-based arguments.


Here's how Zellner is looking on Google Trends:



Guess which point in that graph she took the case at.

p.s. fraley, I had to block your avatar before it gave me a seizure.

Spot cleaning is a fact of the case now?

Also, the lawyer in a high profile case being googled is indicative of something?
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02-11-2016 , 08:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oski
Zellner's already famous.

Her fame comes from overturning convictions.

Making the bold statement she will get SA a new trial is very risky If she just going for a publicity stunt - especially to her reputation in professional circles.

And my point is you don't know what angle Zellner Is taking, so you are wasting your time speculating over the meaning of her actions.

Also Zellner's and Strang/Buting ' s positions are not comparable.
You're right I don't know. My convictions that she is doing this for publicity is not anywhere near a certainty. We will see though and I have never heard of her before this and apparently neither has lost. So I would argue that her fame has risen quite a bit since taking this case.
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02-11-2016 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoorSkillz



p.s. fraley, I had to block your avatar before it gave me a seizure.
ya im probably going to change it
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02-11-2016 , 08:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EfromPegTown
Spot cleaning is a fact of the case now?
It's a fact that a large spot in the garage lit up with luminol like it had recently been cleaned with bleach.

It's a fact that Brendan both confessed and testified that he cleaned up that large spot with Steven on the night of the murder.

It's a fact that the jeans Brendan wore that night had bleach stains on them.

It's a fact that Brendan's mom told detectives that Brendan came home that night with bleach on his jeans and told her he was helping Steven clean the garage.

It's a fact that Strang says Steven told Jodi that night that he'd been doing a little cleaning and that Brendan was over.



Quote:
Also, the lawyer in a high profile case being googled is indicative of something?
It indicates she's experienced a dramatic rise in popularity from taking on this case.
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02-11-2016 , 09:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraleyight
ya im probably going to change it
No Flashing lights pls.


Cops Part 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmqWvUb1lqY
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02-11-2016 , 09:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoorSkillz
It indicates she's experienced a dramatic rise in popularity from taking on this case.
So did Mama Avery.
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02-11-2016 , 09:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraleyight
. So I would argue that her fame has risen quite a bit since taking this case.
wow. really going out in a ledge there.
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02-11-2016 , 09:52 PM
This just in, Ken Kratz only prosecuted the case because he knew 10 years later a doc series about it would be hugely popular.

He tried being a huge creep in 2011 to gain notoriety but it didn't work nearly as well;

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02-11-2016 , 10:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoorSkillz
It's a fact that a large spot in the garage lit up with luminol like it had recently been cleaned with bleach.

It's a fact that Brendan both confessed and testified that he cleaned up that large spot with Steven on the night of the murder.

It's a fact that the jeans Brendan wore that night had bleach stains on them.

It's a fact that Brendan's mom told detectives that Brendan came home that night with bleach on his jeans and told her he was helping Steven clean the garage.

It's a fact that Strang says Steven told Jodi that night that he'd been doing a little cleaning and that Brendan was over.
All of this is not possible, they are both pretty dumb and according to repeated arguments itt, it takes a criminal genius to clean a floor with bleach.
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02-12-2016 , 12:44 AM
What a false equivalency that was from Pegtown. LOL, kratz took the case before it was popular you silly goose.
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02-12-2016 , 12:45 AM
Lol, wow? Lost did the same thing with SA's Mom. Do you guys see the difference between being involved in something that becomes popular and getting involved in something because it is popular?
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02-12-2016 , 12:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lostinthesaus
AKA "Damn Fine Police Work" - fruit snacks.
Heh.

But o snap my bad, I thought this was the thread discussing TV's Making A Murderer with other viewers who had, uh, viewed the show.



Quote:
Originally Posted by fraleyight
Her bones, her car, his blood, bullet from his gun, her dna on the bullet, her key in his trailer that matches the lanyard found in her car.. No I do not think there is a distinct possibility all that was planted and I do not think the most important piece of evidence (his blood in the rav 4) has any reasonable possibility that it was planted.
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02-12-2016 , 01:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lostinthesaus
"You're wrong". - We've got him/her on the ropes. There's no argument anymore. It's just "you're wrong" now.

The trial was completely unfair being held in that location in the wake and aftermath of the media blitz headed by Kratz. Was it illegal, unconstitutional or otherwise rights violating? We will let Zellner argue those points to those who can and will decide. We have an appeal system for these reasons. I'm confident Zellner will prevail.

If he does get a new trial, will your stance change? Or will you blame Netflix for their bias in setting an obvious murdering, raping, child molestor free?

The rats seem to be jumping ship. You and fraleyight (ironic Pro-Wrestling avatar) are all that remain here and your firm stance is being held in place by weak arguments over definitions that are pointless now, irrelevant statements and their source and the continued urge to prove your post 2 weeks ago about nothing contained a word or two that meant nothing.

The human instinct to have to be "right" has had devastating effects in this case. It's abundantly clear to anyone following this case that there is something remarkably wrong with the way this situation developed and was handled. I hardly see anyone say anything about Avery's guilt on reddit anymore. Some stick to fact correcting but none of the "he's guilty, nothing to see here" advocates/shills remain. There are just too many overwhelming facts, circumstances and developments and too much evidence to say "your'e all wrong, he's guilty."

"Moira and Laura, you were wrong"
"Netflix, you are wrong"
"Jerome and Dean, you were and are wrong"
"Kathy and Innocence Project Lawyer Bushnell you and your entire team are certainly wrong"
"All of reddit, WRONG".

At this point, "you're wrong" sounds to me like, "you're right, I just refuse to be wrong".
Goddamn that's well said.

As to the first bold, I was going to ask even before reading this if there were actually people arguing the other side, or just a few vocal contrarians.

As to the second bold, this is why I think arguing about bull**** on the internet IS important. I don't mean this thread, I mean in general, all bull****, like who should be rightfully selected to the NBA all star game, or whether a movie's plot make sense, etc. There's this unspoken fallacy that, hey, sure, when the point being argued is trivial then people will be irrational and ridiculous but when the stakes are raised and it's something that Really Matters people will buck up and bring their A level brain game, but history has not only shown this to not be true but actually the opposite. People get more stubborn and irrational when the stakes are raised and that leads to the travesty that is the SA case. Deep down I know I'm being overly optimistic but I think if you (me, them, anybody) get used to being wrong once in awhile and realizing it's not the end of the world, maybe that insight can be applied when a man's life is on the line.
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02-12-2016 , 02:04 AM
There are like 4 people that regularly post in this thread arguing SA is guilty. Around the same arguing he is innocent and everyone else itt claiming that they are undecided.

As for the general population, most are of the opinion that they think he is innocent as apposed to guilty. Since you're curious.
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02-12-2016 , 02:05 AM
Dramatic re-enactment of the prosecution:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOSdtsJg_LU
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02-12-2016 , 02:05 AM
Just to be clear, my opinion that he is guilty is not based on the tv show. The tv show has a clear bias to its viewers. This is fine though because I feel like if the show was impartial it would have been boring.
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02-12-2016 , 02:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraleyight
There are several ways, but arguing that "everyone agrees with me so I must be right" is a fallacy. If that were the case then the world would be flat because at one time everyone believed this to be true.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

There was never a point in recorded history where the leading scientific minds thought the world was flat; but the ignorant populace did, this is true. You're not on the same side of this fallacy that you think you are.
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02-12-2016 , 02:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraleyight
Just to be clear, my opinion that he is guilty is not based on the tv show. The tv show has a clear bias to its viewers. This is fine though because I feel like if the show was impartial it would have been boring.
If anything I thought the show pulled quite a few punches. Aside from that OMGWTF moment of the coerced confession I initially posted about (which is still HOLY**** even to somebody seasoned like myself), this is like a kiddie pool introduction to the world of corrupt law enforcement.

Wait, before I jump to assumptions, who do you consider "its viewers"?
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