Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > > >

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-11-2009, 11:17 AM   #126
MuresanForMVP
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
MuresanForMVP's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Verizon Center
Posts: 22,064
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Abbaddabba View Post
to figure out the solution you need to know how much it's worth for them to win above and beyond the cash dollar value.
average win (aw) represents the average amount won by the winner in a single game.

if you give yourself pure chance odds at winning each time, your weighted return value (wrv) is:

[aw/3 + aw/3^2, + aw/3^3,... aw/3^n]
... blah blah blah
= 0.5(aw)


stacks...

P1: 4800
P2: 13800
P3: 12000

starting with the assumption that each person has a 50% chance of getting the question right, and using the bids suggested in this thread...


-------------------------------

-bid-
P1: $4,799
P2: $13,000
P3: $11,900

-expected gain-
P1: 1/8 *(9598+wrv)
P2: 1/2 * (26800+wrv) + 1/8 *(800+wrv)
P3: 1/4 * (23900+wrv)

for arguments sake, say aw = 20000 and therefor wrv = 10000
P1 wins 2449.75
P2 wins 18400 + 1350 = 19750
P3 wins 8475


-------------------------------

but that cant be the equilibrium if any one player can improve his EV by changing his bid.


P3 changing his bid to 2399 results in....

= 1/4 * (9601+wrv) + 1/4 * (14399+wrv) which is greater than 1/4 * (23900+wrv)

-bids-
P1: irrelevent
P2: 13000
P3: 2399


this redistributes the expected gains as follows (with the same aw and wrv values)

-expected gain-
P1 wins 0
P2 wins 1/2 * (26800+wrv) = 18400
P3 wins 1/4 * (9601+wrv) + 1/4 * (14399+wrv) = 4900.25 + 6099.75 = 11000

which shows that P3 made gains at the cost of P1 and P2.


--------------------------------


To test whether that's the final point of equilibrium, you need to see if either P1 or P2 can improve their EV by increasing or decreasing their bids.
P1 is basically ****ed in the current state, so it's up to P2.


With the given bids, 13800 is automatically better than 13000, but consider the other alternative... try out 4199...

and if he precisely bids 4199, there's a 1/4 chance that it would result in a draw (meaning both players come back and get the wrv).


so the new test bids are,

P1: irrelevent
P2: 4199
P3: 2399


with these new bids, the expectation is as follows...

P1: 0
P2: 1/2*(17999+wrv) + 1/4*({9601/2}+wrv) = 13999.5 + 3700.125 = 17699.625
P3: 1/4*(14399+wrv) + 1/4*({9601/2}+wrv) = 6099.75 + 3700.125 = 9799.875


two of those 1/4 outcomes obviously overlap and represent draw games.


which shows that it performs worse than the bid of 13000 (and therefor worse than 13800) with a wrv of 10,000. if you were to change the wrv to 20,000, it would be enough to change P2's optimal bid to 4199


--------------------------------


i think you can conclude that depending on the wrv,

p1 should always be ****ed
p2 should either bid 4199, or anywhere between 12001 and 13800
P3 should always bid anywhere between 0 and 2399.





finding the equilibrium bids is just a matter of plugging in all the numbers and the percentage estimates.
in extreme examples, it's important to adjust the wrv value based on how likely it is for you to win future days.
ie: for ken jennings, wrv was extremely high both because of a higher aw and a higher chance at winning each game (represented by the denominator of the series at the beginning).

OK, so it takes a 500 word post to explain the reasoning behind why a player should bid a certain amount, but don't these people get like 5 seconds to make their wager? It seems that the people freak out and just write some **** down given the time they had.

"LOL look at this completely retarded wager! This is what he should have done..... *30 minutes later a huge post is completed explaining what the optimal wager was* See! What an idiot!"
MuresanForMVP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2009, 11:19 AM   #127
Triumph36
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Triumph36's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Osi Ukin'-yora
Posts: 40,914
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MuresanForMVP View Post
OK, so it takes a 500 word post to explain the reasoning behind why a player should bid a certain amount, but don't these people get like 5 seconds to make their wager? It seems that the people freak out and just write some **** down given the time they had.

"LOL look at this completely retarded wager! This is what he should have done..... *30 minutes later a huge post is completed explaining what the optimal wager was* See! What an idiot!"
while i'd love to give these people credit, they know they're going to be on jeopardy for months. the bidding mistakes that are constantly made are just unforgivable - even if people aren't making optimal wagers, they're making massively suboptimal wagers in a lot of situations that shows they haven't considered these things at all.
Triumph36 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2009, 11:27 AM   #128
TomCollins
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TomCollins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: The Blockchain
Posts: 42,555
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by youtalkfunny View Post
In the kids' tourney last week, the Final Jeopardy answer was Anne Frank. All the kids got it right, but the chip leader going in wrote "Annie Frank", and they wouldn't give it to him, costing him the game.

I think the kid got hosed. If I ever ring in with Benny Franklin or Marty King Jr, and they give me any lip about it, I'll stick that magic pen up Trebek's nose.
This is why you always just give a last name.
TomCollins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2009, 11:50 AM   #129
NozeCandy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
NozeCandy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: lol goofybawler
Posts: 29,251
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by LondonBroil View Post
Not an idiotic wager but tonight started off College Week. In single jeopardy there was a category called "Time to Convert".

The $800 question read "Multiply your liters by 1.0567 to get your amount of these units"

Missouri State girl guesses gallons (wrong, ldo) then Ohio State girl guesses quarts and it counts.

Jeopardy FAIL
Quote:
Originally Posted by LondonBroil View Post
I think they meant to say divide instead of multiply since 1 liter = 1.0567 quarts
NozeCandy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2009, 12:37 PM   #130
emmpee
grinder
 
emmpee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: upstate
Posts: 510
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MuresanForMVP View Post
OK, so it takes a 500 word post to explain the reasoning behind why a player should bid a certain amount, but don't these people get like 5 seconds to make their wager? It seems that the people freak out and just write some **** down given the time they had.
They actually have an unlimited amount of time. And a pencil+paper.
emmpee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2009, 07:27 PM   #131
jjshabado
Carpal Tunnel
 
jjshabado's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 22,567
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Well... today's wager by the chick belongs in this thread too.
jjshabado is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2009, 09:10 PM   #132
KingDan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: @DanSmithHolla
Posts: 7,567
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

I watched yesterday and todays on DVR (total time was something absurd like 30 minutes). If you win you get automatic berth in the "playoffs," and there are some amount of wildcard spots.

Players would have <50% of the top score ( and no chance of winning) but would bet like 7000 of 8000. Having 16000 can definitely be better than 15 (i imagine it'll be pretty close) but having 0 and $1200 are exactly the same
KingDan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2009, 09:19 PM   #133
TomCollins
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TomCollins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: The Blockchain
Posts: 42,555
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by KingDan View Post
I watched yesterday and todays on DVR (total time was something absurd like 30 minutes). If you win you get automatic berth in the "playoffs," and there are some amount of wildcard spots.

Players would have <50% of the top score ( and no chance of winning) but would bet like 7000 of 8000. Having 16000 can definitely be better than 15 (i imagine it'll be pretty close) but having 0 and $1200 are exactly the same
Having 1200 could possibly give you the win, where 0 would never give you the win.
TomCollins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2009, 09:25 PM   #134
jjshabado
Carpal Tunnel
 
jjshabado's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 22,567
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCollins View Post
Having 1200 could possibly give you the win, where 0 would never give you the win.
There's like less than a 1% chance that a 1200 is going to get a 2nd place player into the next round.
jjshabado is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2009, 09:32 PM   #135
TomCollins
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TomCollins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: The Blockchain
Posts: 42,555
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado View Post
There's like less than a 1% chance that a 1200 is going to get a 2nd place player into the next round.
Probably less than 1% chance of that, but depending on the other players amounts, 1200 might be enough to win the round.

if
P(winning with 1200) * P(missing the question) > P(advancing with 16000 but not 15000) * P (getting the question correct), then its the smart play.
TomCollins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2009, 12:54 PM   #136
kkcountry
BBV MS Paint Rapid Response Squad
 
kkcountry's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: dimichele ripped
Posts: 31,231
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

(just saw this on a rerun)

you're in last place with 6200, and your opponents have 9500 and 19200. you have control with 1 question left, and the last clue of double jeopardy is a daily double.

what's the correct amount to bet?
kkcountry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2009, 02:03 PM   #137
Black Aces 518
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Black Aces 518's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: same dances in the same ole shoes
Posts: 8,647
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

3401?
Black Aces 518 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2009, 02:14 PM   #138
TomCollins
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TomCollins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: The Blockchain
Posts: 42,555
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by kkcountry View Post
(just saw this on a rerun)

you're in last place with 6200, and your opponents have 9500 and 19200. you have control with 1 question left, and the last clue of double jeopardy is a daily double.

what's the correct amount to bet?
There's absolutely no reason to not bet it all. If you miss it, no matter what you bet, 19200 guy wins 100% of the time. So you need to get it correct to matter. Since having more $ > less $, betting it all is the only correct play. So you either have 12400 or 0. The only exception is if you get a better prize for being 2nd than 3rd, but in terms of playing to win, you have to bet it all.

This actually helps out your 9500 opponent as well! In Final Jeopardy, you gain nothing in betting small, so you need to again bet it all. The leader would then need to bet more. The 9500 guy can now win if you both fail and he gets it right, where he couldn't before.

It's a very obvious strategy, but fairly interesting in terms of the implications for the other players.
TomCollins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2009, 02:49 PM   #139
Dr. Spaceman
worth 1000 words
 
Dr. Spaceman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Manhattan
Posts: 7,978
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCollins View Post
There's absolutely no reason to not bet it all. If you miss it, no matter what you bet, 19200 guy wins 100% of the time. So you need to get it correct to matter. Since having more $ > less $, betting it all is the only correct play. So you either have 12400 or 0. The only exception is if you get a better prize for being 2nd than 3rd, but in terms of playing to win, you have to bet it all.

This actually helps out your 9500 opponent as well! In Final Jeopardy, you gain nothing in betting small, so you need to again bet it all. The leader would then need to bet more. The 9500 guy can now win if you both fail and he gets it right, where he couldn't before.

It's a very obvious strategy, but fairly interesting in terms of the implications for the other players.
Never bet it all in that situation. Leave yourself with a dollar if you get it wrong so you can at least avoid the shame of missing final Jeopardy.
Dr. Spaceman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-14-2009, 03:05 PM   #140
Noah.
banned
 
Noah.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Boston
Posts: 20,065
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
while i'd love to give these people credit, they know they're going to be on jeopardy for months. the bidding mistakes that are constantly made are just unforgivable - even if people aren't making optimal wagers, they're making massively suboptimal wagers in a lot of situations that shows they haven't considered these things at all.
I always think about this sort of thing in the context of that Newlyweds game show.

I feel like before we went on the show, I'd sit down with my wife and be like "If it asks for a room in the house: kitchen, your friend: Kate, my friend: Steve, food: steak, x per week: 5, etc.

The fact that people don't seem to do stuff like this makes me mad.
Noah. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2009, 01:22 AM   #141
blendedsuit
adept
 
blendedsuit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: take a guess
Posts: 1,052
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by danspartan View Post
Tonight we had 2nd place and 3rd place each with (game theory/math/gambling) skillz

1st 16,700
2nd 15,600
3rd 3,000

All missed in FJ


3rd bet $0 which would have won except
2nd bet only $1111
1st bet $14,501

So 2nd scooped a nice $14489. Against like 95% of players, 3rd would have actually won.
You guys are making way too many assumptions. A lot of you are going by the belief "I'm just going to make 100% sure I win it if I get the question right. "-suzzer That's fine, but not close to ideal situation.

A lot worse result I feel is being in first going into the final, and getting the question wrong and losing. That's why as 1st place going into FJ I would not bet enough to lockout 2nd place if they max bet.

This example is a good illustration of how to play second place going into FJ.

A lot of you are having too high a probability that the FJ question is easy. So as second place if you can get the answer correct, you either must bet past 1st, or rely on 1st place getting it wrong. On an easy (answerable) question this is rare. That's why you can throw out your whole optimal betting in 1st place position having to lockout 2nd by betting at least double.

If the FJ question is difficult, as 2nd place you can underbid, and put the the leader in the hot seat. This requires them to either get the answer correct, or bid less than double but not guarantee victory.

Just curious, which helps my argument, is the percentage of answers to FJ that the contestants get wrong.
blendedsuit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2009, 01:56 AM   #142
pokernoob12
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 898
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brocktoon View Post
Well basically you can't let somone beat you by simply betting it all as the leader, I really don't think any leader ever bets less than the amount that will give them $1 more than double 2nd place.
This is a very bad strategy if you think you are weak in the category.

It'd be much easier if someone had a FJ answer correct statistic.

Last edited by pokernoob12; 09-15-2009 at 02:06 AM.
pokernoob12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2009, 02:05 AM   #143
pokernoob12
banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 898
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
Yeah that was my only guess too.
Its never the obvious answer. Everyone guesses Sheen. I bet that is what all 3 players guessed.

I would have gone through as many recent movies with a president as I could think of and pick one of those since there obviously were not too many series about presidents in recent memory.

I think it was a pretty easy question in that regard as W was a recent film and you know his Dad is an actor.
pokernoob12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2009, 07:25 PM   #144
jjshabado
Carpal Tunnel
 
jjshabado's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 22,567
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Andy Richter is cleaning up on celebrity jeopardy. I love it when comedians do well on these shows.

This didn't really seem to deserve its own thread so I just bumped this one.
jjshabado is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2009, 07:35 PM   #145
jjshabado
Carpal Tunnel
 
jjshabado's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 22,567
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado View Post
Andy Richter is cleaning up on celebrity jeopardy. I love it when comedians do well on these shows.

This didn't really seem to deserve its own thread so I just bumped this one.
Wolf Blitzer: -$4,600
Dana Somebody: $4,800
Andy Richter: $39,000

Awesome.
jjshabado is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2009, 08:02 PM   #146
Abbaddabba
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,952
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

edit: reworded

Last edited by Abbaddabba; 09-17-2009 at 08:29 PM.
Abbaddabba is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2009, 08:10 PM   #147
Yeti
Abominable
 
Yeti's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 23,005
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

i read that three times and have absolutely NO CLUE what you are saying.
Yeti is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2009, 08:21 PM   #148
Sven O
4L FF League 2 Champ

 
Sven O's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 4,884
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

just an observaition. In Norway when it ran, i don`t think you know how much the other players have at any time in the game. If this is the case this whole debate is just pointless. If this differs in the U.S version forget it.

bonus info. my high school chem teacher won the max programs allowed (5 i think) and he showed us all off the programs in class. He is just the most ridic man i know. He knows just everything. Really freaky. He also played the weakest link and did not answer a single question wrong but got booted off in one off the last rounds because the others diden`t wanna face him in the final. He also tried countless times to get on who wants to be a millionarie but never got the call.
Sven O is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2009, 08:28 PM   #149
Yeti
Abominable
 
Yeti's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 23,005
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

you can see how much everyone has and you have unlimited time to wager
Yeti is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2009, 08:29 PM   #150
Abbaddabba
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Toronto
Posts: 4,952
Re: Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (from tonight/TLDR)

Quote:
i read that three times and have absolutely NO CLUE what you are saying.
forget the numbers, they're probably botched.

basically if either 1st or 2nd are cognizant of the fact that they have to make defensive bids against 3rd, they're going to bid an amount where you cannot win even if you double up.

there's no advantage for them to bid defensively against your current score instead of bidding defensively against your double up.



edit again... uhm, ok, im not so sure now. disregard that
Abbaddabba is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:32 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online