Quote:
Originally Posted by danspartan
Tonight we had 2nd place and 3rd place each with (game theory/math/gambling) skillz
1st 16,700
2nd 15,600
3rd 3,000
All missed in FJ
3rd bet $0 which would have won except
2nd bet only $1111
1st bet $14,501
So 2nd scooped a nice $14489. Against like 95% of players, 3rd would have actually won.
You guys are making way too many assumptions. A lot of you are going by the belief "I'm just going to make 100% sure I win it if I get the question right. "-suzzer That's fine, but not close to ideal situation.
A lot worse result I feel is being in first going into the final, and getting the question wrong and losing. That's why as 1st place going into FJ I would not bet enough to lockout 2nd place if they max bet.
This example is a good illustration of how to play second place going into FJ.
A lot of you are having too high a probability that the FJ question is easy. So as second place if you can get the answer correct, you either must bet past 1st, or rely on 1st place getting it wrong. On an easy (answerable) question this is rare. That's why you can throw out your whole optimal betting in 1st place position having to lockout 2nd by betting at least double.
If the FJ question is difficult, as 2nd place you can underbid, and put the the leader in the hot seat. This requires them to either get the answer correct, or bid less than double but not guarantee victory.
Just curious, which helps my argument, is the percentage of answers to FJ that the contestants get wrong.