Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) - Page 477

Steve’s DD in yesterday’s game made me think again about where the cutoff is between “every answer is better than no answer” and “I know that’s wrong and people will make fun of me for that one for the next 20 years”.

Looking forward to today’s episode with Ryan. Had to make up an excuse to move a 2PM call which is also the time Jeopardy airs here.

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05-19-2021 , 11:09 AM

#11902

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,234

Quote:

Originally Posted by riverboatking

I'm not saying he wasn't a huge dork for how he acted or I didn't roll my eyes at his awkwardness, just that actually getting upset by it or tweeting out attacking him makes u a million times worse.

ps: while I used to share your sentiments on chin music I urge everyone who still thinks it's OK to throw anywhere near someone's head to watch the video of pillar getting hit in the face last night.

Re: the bolded. Despite my belief that the GOAT sports nickname was Sal "The Barber" Maglie, I agree. You can always drill someone in the hip.

And in general, while I don't condemn him for his attitude, I lean towards "act like you've been there."

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05-19-2021 , 02:28 PM

#11903

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,739

Quote:

Originally Posted by madlex

Looking forward to today’s episode with Ryan. Had to make up an excuse to move a 2PM call which is also the time Jeopardy airs here.

what was your excuse?

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05-19-2021 , 04:50 PM

#11904

golddog

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 6,713

"I wanna ****ing watch Jeopardy!, and I'm not interested in your bullshit meeting."?

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05-19-2021 , 06:04 PM

#11905

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,454

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

what was your excuse?

My wife has to go to the lab and I have to watch the kids. Then I told my wife that my afternoon was open so if there’s something to do in the lab, today would be good for that.

@Ryan: Did you make a chart for wild card spot scores in previous ToCs or tournaments in general? Out of curiosity I looked up the last 3 ToCs and found 14601, 11500 and 14000 for the last WC spot.

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05-19-2021 , 07:33 PM

#11906

riverboatking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,791

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh

And in general, while I don't condemn him for his attitude, I lean towards "act like you've been there."

I 100% agree and would never act that way personally but my only point was it's infinitely worse to get angry about it.

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05-19-2021 , 08:32 PM

#11907

RAHZero

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by madlex

Wrote about my wager on Reddit so just gonna copy that over here:

Spoiler:

Going in to Final Jeopardy, I found myself in a bit of a dilemma. I was between 2 wagers: $1400 to tie a double up from Paul (I would have the tiebreaker over him by virtue of leading going into FJ), or all $10,200 to essentially lock up a wild card spot if correct (and give me a chance at the win if I got the clue correct while Jennifer missed).

I had reviewed the TOC wild card data from the Jeopardy Fan (https://thejeopardyfan.com/2017/03/s...ild-cards.html) prior to my appearance, and while I didn't have it fully memorized, I knew that finishing in second vs. third made a big difference for scores in the $9k to $12k range.

Looking at the data, a second place finish with $11600 would give me about a 76.6% chance of grabbing a wild card spot. Finishing in second with $8800, my chances are about 45.3%, and finishing in third with the same score, they're 20.4%. It's a little tough to estimate my odds of finishing in 2nd vs. 3rd if I were to miss, but I'd guesstimate that somewhere around 2/3 of the time that I miss, Paul will also miss. Putting that all together, and using p as the probability that I get FJ correct, my wild card equity when betting $1400 is:

p(.766) + (1-p)(2/3)(.453) + (1-p)(1/3)(.204)

My chances if I were to bet it all are just p, since I virtually always move on with a score of $20.4k and virtually never with a score of 0.

So if I were 50% to get FJ, then I would have about a 56.8% chance to grab a wild card spot by betting $1400 and only 50% if were to go all-in. The breakeven point is right around 60%. If my odds of getting FJ are better than that, then I should bet it all, otherwise I should go with the $1400 wager. Obviously I wasn't able to go through all this math while actually playing, but a shorthand version was how I ended up going with the smaller bet. That said, the math doesn't take in to account the psychological implications of having to sweat out the final two quarterfinal matches (and potentially regretting it for the rest of my life if I bet small, get it right and don't move on).

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05-19-2021 , 09:53 PM

#11908

ntnBO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,646

The important thing is that you had a plan for this instance and followed it. Infinitely better than most who look like deer in headlights before wagering some useless round number.

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05-19-2021 , 11:02 PM

#11909

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,729

how many 2p2ers have been on jeopardy now, gotta be over 5 for sure yeah?

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05-19-2021 , 11:08 PM

#11910

domda

grinder

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 610

My first thought when I saw your wager was that it's not enough but it's clear you knew exactly what you were doing , thanks for the detailed explanation but I"m surprised you only figure to be right on FJ 50 %

hoping that it worked out well for you

Last edited by domda; 05-19-2021 at 11:13 PM.

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05-20-2021 , 12:42 AM

#11911

marknfw

Gaming Commissioner

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 13,095

AJ, Holzhauer, Ryan. Who else?

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05-20-2021 , 08:30 AM

#11912

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,739

I was expecting a shove, but also have not looked at any of the data like you did. I'm guessing you didn't love the category and that played into your decision as well. You had a process and followed it. That's respectable. Hopefully it's enough to advance.

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05-20-2021 , 09:23 AM

#11913

golddog

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Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 6,713

Ryan,

I hope your wager worked out for you. Thank you for the detailed explanation of your thoughts.

I assume the quarterfinals are all taped in one day, like a regular week's worth of shows. Also that they can quarantine the players so you don't know the earlier outcomes.

Once you've taped, are you out of quarantine? In other words, can you discover where you are at the end of your taping, so you can sweat (or not) getting in the semis?

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05-20-2021 , 10:06 AM

#11914

ntnBO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,646

After one plays in the QF’s they are free to watch the games. Like you said, they are sequestered until then.

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05-20-2021 , 10:49 AM

#11915

madlex

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,454

Thank you for the detailed explanation of your wager, seems like the perfect approach if you base your decision making on data from that prediction model.

I took some time to look over the Wild Card numbers of past ToC and they're actually pretty crazy. Building a solid prediction model based on those seems to be difficult to impossible.

Over the last 5 ToC the final WC spot went to the following scores:
13601 (Season #36)
11500 (#34)
14000 (#32)
9100 (#31)
13000 (#29)

That Season 29 tournament actually was the first time ever that 11600 didn't get a WC.

The 5 ToC before that:
6012
4999
9900
11400
11000

After that it get's really whacky. Next season (#21) the final WC spot went to 4000 and the one before (#19) two people who finishing at 0 (!) made it to the semis. At the ToC before that (season 18) a score of 2000 was enough. Even though scores are all over the place in the ToC before that, there was only one instance where a player needed to finish above 10000 to secure a WC spot.

Overall, there's clearly a trend towards higher scores with higher accuracy combined with more aggressive DD wagering probably being the most important factors?

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05-20-2021 , 05:10 PM

#11916

riverboatking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,791

lol I had no idea u were a 2p2er ryan but was obv rooting for u immediately when u targeted the football category then ofc when u shoved on the DD in DJ.

great performance hoping to see u go deep!

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05-20-2021 , 05:19 PM

#11917

golddog

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Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 6,713

Strange how when the champions get together, it seems as if there's a lot less of the "going straight down a category" approach.

Almost as if people who've done better have a strategy that helped them do so.

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05-20-2021 , 08:41 PM

#11918

pwnsall

CFBBPC

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 65,637

So Ryan is a lock to move in already, yeah?

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05-20-2021 , 08:50 PM

#11919

bortlicense

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 458

Hey Ryan, thanks for the excellent explanation for your FJ wager. What was your logic behind your 2nd DD wager? I expected you to go all in there based on how Jennifer was on the buzzer.

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05-20-2021 , 09:29 PM

#11920

madlex

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,454

Quote:

Originally Posted by pwnsall

So Ryan is a lock to move in already, yeah?

No lock but his chances improved from good to excellent.

Just last week we had a game where 3rd finished at 13100 and another one where 3rd came close with 11400. But I wouldn’t think that happens more than maybe 5-10% of the time?

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05-20-2021 , 09:33 PM

#11921

danspartan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,851

Quote:

Originally Posted by golddog

They don’t really have a choice. If you swim w sharks you better adapt.

Quote

05-20-2021 , 11:03 PM

#11922

RAHZero

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by bortlicense

Hey Ryan, thanks for the excellent explanation for your FJ wager. What was your logic behind your 2nd DD wager? I expected you to go all in there based on how Jennifer was on the buzzer.

Going all-in there would have been pretty silly in a quarterfinal match given the presence of the wild cards, as a miss would likely eliminate me. ~$3k put me in a spot where I could likely cruise to at least a wild card if right, and still be in strong position to move on with a double up in FJ if I missed and the rest of the DJ round went poorly for me. If this had been the semifinals (where you need to win to advance) or Day 1 of the finals (where you're trying to maximize your score), I would have definitely gone for the back to back all-ins.

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05-21-2021 , 07:26 AM

#11923

madlex

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,454

Quote:

Originally Posted by RAHZero

Thanks for explaining your thoughts on that one! At what score would you have decided to stand pat there, 12k+? With that much money left on the board, getting at least another 2k in easy money to lock up a spot should be a fair assumption even if somebody else dominates the buzzer?

FWIW, Ben’s all-in yesterday was the perfect example to prove your point. What he did was the equivalent to “ICM suicide” in poker.

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05-21-2021 , 10:10 AM

#11924

pwnsall

CFBBPC

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 65,637

The winner of game 1 gets their winnings it sounds like? So a bit of incentive to play for the win.

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05-21-2021 , 11:23 AM

#11925

RAHZero

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by madlex

I'd probably want a little more to go with the min bet of $5 (probably would go with that if at 15k+). Ben was in a tricky spot as it was a bit later in the game and he was in 3rd at the time. Not sure what bet I would have gone with in his shoes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pwnsall

The winner of game 1 gets their winnings it sounds like? So a bit of incentive to play for the win.

No, the dollar amounts in the TOC are essentially just points, except for in the Finals (see below). The players that get eliminated in the quarters get $5k, the players eliminated in the semis get $10k, and then in the Finals it's $250k for first, $100k for second and $50k for third, with the caveat that if your two day total exceeds your prize, you keep the total instead (I'm not aware of any instances of this happening).

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