Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
Isn't $0 better than $1 for the leader in this spot? It reminds me of a basketball team with the ball in a tie game with the shot clock off... guarantee OT at worst.
You make the wager that shows the highest winning chances, doesn’t matter how or when you win. Would you rather win 75% of the time in regulation and lose 25% vs. winning 50% of the time in OT?
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
IIRC somebody ran the numbers and found out that you have to be a sizable favorite in a tiebreaker question to make the $0 bet a valid option. In a 50/50 tiebreaker with everything else random, betting $1 is clearly superior to $0.
People forget two things in their calculations. 1, second place doesn’t wager everything as often as 1/3rd of the time. 2, if the leader has double the total over second, they obviously have a huge buzzer advantage, well over 50%. No reason to be concerned about a buzzer race.
Against almost any woman, I’m wagering $0 from the lead.
Overall, I’ve run the numbers multiple times because people are always non believers when this situation occurs. Both wagering $0 and $1 from the lead shows winning chances in the low 80’s. Neither is a mistake in a vacuum.