Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) - Page 424

I liked Sam, reminded me of Ethan Hawke in the Before Sunrise set of movies. Roey annoyed me and lol FJ. Nathan was kinda likably annoying. Didn't mind him as much but don't mind seeing him gone.

That Roey FJ though. Oh man. And how it even got to be within striking distance was a good scene too. Roey grimaced when it happened.

Quote

07-23-2019 , 08:47 AM

#10577

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,235

ROFLMAO "Timbuktu", and a moderate LOL "Kilimanjaro".

ffs doesn't anybody younger than 50 even look at a map any more?

At least "The source of the Nile" is allegedly in the right neighborhood.

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07-23-2019 , 07:58 PM

#10578

True North

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 23,703

Player 3 trailing the champ $11K-$17K, finds an $800 DD with three clues left.

So of course he bets $4K, gets the easy clue correct, and loses on a triple correct in FJ.

Player 3 owes me a new TV, I threw my remote through mine.

Quote

07-23-2019 , 09:08 PM

#10579

True North

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 23,703

Quote

07-23-2019 , 09:28 PM

#10580

GMan42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,258

I'm guessing those rules were written under the assumption that no mere mortal could average over $125k for two straight days.

Quote

07-23-2019 , 11:35 PM

#10581

Gaddy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,379

Quote:

Originally Posted by True North

Champ been getting real lucky with bad decisions by challengers. In the previous game, the challenger had two choices of clues left with time winding down, the 2k or 400. He chose the 2k, the champ got it to give himself a two-thirds advantage and time ran out FJ was a triple stumper but champ won. If challenger chose the 400 clue, champ doesn't get two-thirds advantage and challenger wins with sane FJ wager.

Quote

07-24-2019 , 08:04 AM

#10582

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,235

2nd time in the past couple of weeks that an older woman in 3rd place has wagered correctly in FJ.

Quote

07-24-2019 , 08:11 AM

#10583

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,750

Her quick head turns made me lol

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07-24-2019 , 02:23 PM

#10584

Gaddy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,379

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Her quick head turns made me lol

Yeah, I was thinking why does she keep staring at the champ when she doesn’t know the response?

Quote

07-24-2019 , 09:02 PM

#10585

danspartan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,851

Just catching up. Fool that lost lock tie game was all smiles at the end. Wonder if anyone ever explained how bad his 0 wager was.

Of course we get this expert analysis from the J!board

Quote:

Because results oriented people will undoubtedly say Roey should have wagered $1, let's just get ahead of it. No, he shouldn't have. Not necessarily. We've run the numbers and there's really no wrong decision between wagering $0 and $1. So it can turn into category dependent.

If memory serves, the leader in this situation should win ~81% of the time either way. And most would be surprised how often 2nd place in this situation doesn't wager everything.

So Roey should know there was no wrong decision here.

Quote

07-25-2019 , 08:10 AM

#10586

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,235

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaddy

Yeah, I was thinking why does she keep staring at the champ when she doesn’t know the response?

I read that as "how do you keep beating me on the buzzer???"

Quote

07-25-2019 , 09:47 AM

#10587

tarheels2222

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 10,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by True North

Next level.

Quote

07-25-2019 , 10:30 AM

#10588

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 58,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by True North

Player 3 trailing the champ $11K-$17K, finds an $800 DD with three clues left.

So of course he bets $4K.

Betting so little that he doesn't overtake the leader if correct, but so much that he drops to less than half of first if wrong.

That's actually amazing.

Seriously, how do people like this get on the show?

Quote

07-25-2019 , 10:55 AM

#10589

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

4K might honestly be the worst possible wager given it's smack in the middle of that 2.5K to 6K terrible range

Quote

07-25-2019 , 01:38 PM

#10590

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,750

Quote:

Originally Posted by danspartan

Just catching up. Fool that lost lock tie game was all smiles at the end. Wonder if anyone ever explained how bad his 0 wager was.

Of course we get this expert analysis from the J!board

I disagree with this. I don't get how it's 81%

If FJ is 60% and then tiebreak is 50% that gives 2nd a 30% chance.

For 2nd to only be 19%, that means he can only get FJ 38% of the time.

Assumptions I made that I think are fair.
2nd always shoves - anything else is ridiculous
They are 50/50 at final. This may be slightly off since you can probably reasonably assume whoever is in 1st is better at buzzer/knowledge but hard to quantify.

Quote

07-25-2019 , 08:00 PM

#10591

True North

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 23,703

It is incredible what a charmed life the champ is leading.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 12:06 AM

#10592

revots33

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 13,455

Quote:

Originally Posted by True North

Missed this ep, wow that's terrible

Quote

07-26-2019 , 08:23 AM

#10593

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,235

Quote:

Originally Posted by True North

It is incredible what a charmed life the champ is leading.

PT Barnum said it best "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people."

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:20 AM

#10594

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,750

14,400
12,000
6,000

All 3 got it wrong.

Spoiler:

Quote

07-26-2019 , 12:14 PM

#10595

GMan42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,258

How depressing will it be if people keep betting this way next season when we're firmly entrenched in the "every contestant has definitely seen James play" era?

Quote

07-26-2019 , 02:05 PM

#10596

ntnBO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,648

Quote:

Originally Posted by danspartan

Just catching up. Fool that lost lock tie game was all smiles at the end. Wonder if anyone ever explained how bad his 0 wager was.

Of course we get this expert analysis from the J!board

OK. Let's see your numbers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Unfortunately, none of what you wrote is accurate. Which admittedly, is hard to believe with at least one statement.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 02:07 PM

#10597

ntnBO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,648

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

14,400
12,000
6,000

All 3 got it wrong.

Spoiler:

Nothing wrong with 3rd shoving, 2nd of course is LOL bad.

Quote

07-26-2019 , 02:57 PM

#10598

stinkypete

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMan42

How depressing will it be if people keep betting this way next season when we're firmly entrenched in the "every contestant has definitely seen James play" era?

It's hard to be depressed about it when you know 100% it's going to happen

Quote

07-26-2019 , 05:19 PM

#10599

GMan42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,258

Yeah I guess it's true. I mean in the end I guess James did little to teach about FJ wagers anyway, since he had a runaway like 95% of the time. Just look at how dummies reacted online when he did correctly make the small bet in his final game hoping for the triple stumper. "ZOMG he must have been trying to lose!"

Quote

07-26-2019 , 10:30 PM

#10600

danspartan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,851

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Yeah, we did the math on this the first time it came up. 81% cannot be correct. 2nd has to be 50% to get FJ correct and then 50% to get the tie break. I think that guy is trying to claim that 20% of the time 2nd does not shove?? I am certainly not considering that 2nd is that stupid. It may happen but unless I see actually data that it happens with any frequency then I’m not factoring an underbet in. Bet the dollar.

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